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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • the single dumbest paragraph filed with the SEC this month
    What's the point of the obfuscation if the next document filed with the SEC (the reorg proxy) reveals all? (Don't even try to answer that.)
    LREOX is the Predecessor Portfolio. It's a series of the Lazard Funds. The predecessor fund to the Predecessor Portfolio was Grubb & Ellis AGA U.S. Realty (GBEUX).
    The Target Fund [LREOX] commenced operations after all of the assets of an investment company advised by Grubb & Ellis Alesco Global Advisors, LLC, the Grubb & Ellis AGA U.S. Realty Fund (the “Predecessor Fund”), were transferred to the Target Fund in exchange for Open Shares of the Target Fund in a tax-free reorganization on September 23, 2011.
    From the Lazard proxy for LREOX to be acquired by the Terra Firma shell fund.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141819/000089418920001854/terrafirman14doc.htm
    Supplement to the 2010 GBEUX prospectus describing the 2011 reorg into Lazard:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141819/000089418911002851/grbells-tpm_497e.htm
  • Federal Reserve Gives Emergency Aid to Mutual Funds
    This seems concerning for two reasons.
    First, as msf points out, we see three straight days of a decline. The 16th, 17th, and yesterday. I can't find another date that the Daily Market Value fell below $1. Is this a trend?
    Second, is it correct to say that if one sold yesterday you would get less than $1 per share (0.9992)?
    The ER is 15 basis points. Can Vanguard prop up the fund by reducing the expense ratio?
    Mona
  • Coronavirus will hit US economy harder than 2008 financial crisis: J.P. Morgan
    nope after Boeing spent what 50 or 100 billion on buybacks in the last ten years. But the taxpayer will bail them out again
    Let us at least pray the US gets an equity stake or warrants like Warren could get
  • Investor Bill Miller Calls This One of the Best Buying Opportunities of His Life
    If we have no social distancing or other preventative measures then at leaset 80% of everyone in the US will indeed contact the virus.
    The 5 million people will not all be grannies. Mortality rate in Kirkland nursing home is 30% 2.5 million folks times 80% times 30% mortality so 600,000 grannies gone
    over 65 there are 49 million Americans ( minus the 5 million in Nursing Homes)
    45 times 80% 3,600,000 infected 8% (mortality in China) so 300,000 baby boomers dead
    Today we heard that 20% of 20 to 44 yo with Corona have been been hospitalized and 5% in ICU
    so 88 million with 70 million infected 20% 14 million hospitalizations with 3.5 million ICU admissions
    ( US has 540,000 regular hospital beds and about 100,000 ICU beds)
    I doubt if these dead or hospitalized people will be available to support the economy
    Who knows what what the mortality rate will be in prisons??
    In china mortality was controlled because they controlled infections and spread of the virus. If we don't we are toast until a vaccine is available.
  • Federal Reserve Gives Emergency Aid to Mutual Funds
    That's a good question. These days I haven't been paying too much attention to muni MMFs because they're paying less than online bank accounts (after tax). So it doesn't make much sense to take on their additional risk. (Aside from considerations like Medicare IRMAA where gross income is what matters.)
    It's hard to read into the government announcement.
    It could be that the wording was sloppy and the intent was to cover prime and muni MMFs. (I checked the N-MFP filing for VMSXX to verify that it is not considered a prime fund.)
    It could be that the government doesn't consider muni MMFs to be at enough risk to offer this loan option.
    It could be that the government does consider muni MMFs to be at higher risk but doesn't want to handle non-federal securities as collateral for its loans.
    FWIW, the true NAV of VMSXX over the past six months has been consistently over $1, ranging between $1.0001 and $1.0004 until the past three days where it dropped to $0.9998, $0.9995, and $0.9992 as of yesterday. Fidelity's FMOXX has generally had a higher NAV ($1.0012 to $1.0017), but it too has fallen in the last week from $1.0014 to $1.0007, likewise below its normal range.
    Perhaps it is time to start watching these figures more closely.
  • Investor Bill Miller Calls This One of the Best Buying Opportunities of His Life
    coronavirus deaths < 200. Flu deaths between 22K to 55 = about 35-40,000. Corona is 10 times more deadly but we still have fewer deaths. Sure, we need to do all we do and be informed.
    So far the SP500 fell about 30% from its top. When to buy your first bucket? You got to use charts because it’s mechanical and many algos use it. I looked for several indicators that work for me and I used several but it’s too complicated. For Stocks: based on 2008 (which resembles 2020) the easiest is 100 moving average (Again, R48). 50+200 MA are the most used but 50 is too fast but 200 is too slow. MACD and looking at trends may confuse some/many. For CEF: use weekly MACD. For bond OEFs: use a simple chart trend. See below
    Stocks: SP500 (chart) from 2008 to 2009. See the 3 moving averages below. 100 MA(red line) is the best, not too early and not too late. For the current chart, you this (link)
    CEFs: PCI(chart). Use weekly MACD and enter when it's positive
    Bond OEFs: PIMIX (chart). You want to see several weeks of uptrend
  • Investor Bill Miller Calls This One of the Best Buying Opportunities of His Life
    Well I was just throwing out a number....Those are not going to be the numbers. Many people have it who will never show up in ICU or even get tested. All or mostly all who die from it will be measured. Overall percentage is therefore much lower. 99% of fatalities in Italy are over 80 and have more than two serious medical conditions. I have seen 2.3-2.7...
    My point is how far do we go to save this group? $3T? $5T in hole? More?
    Many of these people would be done in by any number of illnesses, or a stiff wind.
  • The stock market may bottom long before the coronavirus epidemic peaks, analysts say
    Hi sir @old_joe
    It will pass/by imid June July folks will be buying again..prob forgot everything that happened now
    Not getting advise from market watch but just read it w grain of salt...also read many other resources
    I am not too worried...got 15 yrs left
    Prob buy very soon
    If you do have good articles resources pls do make contributions
    Thx for your concerns and commentaries my dear friend
  • Estimated Tax Computation
    In another thread, I wrote that according to IRS guidelines, taxpayers are allowed to defer their first quarter estimates until July 15th, though their second quarter estimates are still due a month earlier, on June 15th.
    As to what I will be doing - likely paying the same estimates as always, since I periodically do Roth conversions. Each year I select the amount to convert such that my total taxes remain fairly constant. Generally that means doing some conversions early in the year and leaving some until the end of the year when I have a good sense of expected dividends.
  • Investor Bill Miller Calls This One of the Best Buying Opportunities of His Life
    Approx US population, December 2019: 330,149,796 (Wickipedia)
    Projected infection rate, if let run without intervention: approx 80% = 264,000,000
    Fatality rate of 2% = approx 5,000,000

    Quite a writeoff that you're comfortable with.
  • Estimated Tax Computation
    With the market in the toilet, and much of my income from dividends and capital gains distributions, how are members computing their quarterly estimated tax for 2020? No one has mentioned extending the 4/15 deadline yet.
  • Federal Reserve Gives Emergency Aid to Mutual Funds
    From the NY Times
    "WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve said late Wednesday night that it would offer emergency loans to money market mutual funds, its latest in a series of steps to keep the financial system functioning and prop up the economy as it spirals toward recession during the coronavirus pandemic.
    The Fed said in a release that it would establish a so-called Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, which would be backed by $10 billion from the Treasury Department. That program joins a similar lending one for banks, established this week.
    Click to Read
  • 12 Bond Mutual Funds and ETFs to Buy for Protection
    https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/T052-S001-12-bond-mutual-funds-and-etfs-to-buy-protection/index.html
    12 Bond Mutual Funds and ETFs to Buy for Protection
    As the stock market continues to take a beating, nervous investors look to bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for protection and sanity. After all, fixed income typically provides regular cash and lower volatility when markets hit turbulence.
  • Another buying opportunity
    “With my Schwab account down 22.14 % YTD, I don't think that's to funny”
    - Not sure what that means ... Is the Schwab everything you own,or just part of your investments?
    - Are you calling a bottom in the market at today’s numbers?
    - Do you have an allocation model you wish to share?
    I don’t compute my returns daily or report them publicly. I do benchmark against TRRIX - as I’ve been doing for at least 15 years (often mentioned here). Generally I’m very close to that fund’s return over time..
    Regards
  • Another buying opportunity
    No one would be happier than me if all the markets reversed themselves tomorrow and went straight up for the remainder of the year. Could happen. I’ll lay 25% odds on that happening. But if I was that omniscient, than why was I invested at all when the Dow was near 30,000?
    So, I’m not omniscient. As I’ve said before ... there’s no cash stash here. I’m fully invested all the time with a small cash allocation - more in bonds. Unless you’re very young, caution is recommended. I have no desire to “day trade” (move in and out of markets frequently). But if I wanted to, T. Rowe Price wouldn’t go along anyway. They’d boot me out in a hurry.
    What about the current situation makes one bullish at this juncture ? Airlines are closing down. Borders here and in Europe are shut. Tourism is 0. (Still a few drunk kids in Florida. Clearwater Beach will close Monday.) There are reliable predictions this crisis may last for a year or two, If large segments of the population are ill or dying, staying home and afraid to go anywhere, than who’s going to manufacture the things we need, grow our food, butcher the hogs & cattle, haul the food & merchandise to market, staff the stores or treat you when you need an appendectomy?
    BTW - as of last evening you couldn’t buy toilet paper at Amazon - unless you opted for the “novelty” stuff with either Trump or Hillary printed in it.
  • Too Much to Bear
    https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/too-much-bad-news-15268675
    Too Much to Bear
    The economy is shaky and the fear is real, but at some point the bad news overloads us, and we have to start looking for the green shots
  • Part of market looking oversold
    Incognito google search
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/28b75368-67d9-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75
    Part of market looking oversold
    Many here have right ideas considering adding start small positions in several sectors
    We maybe laughing our ways to banks 10 yrs from now
  • Another buying opportunity
    Are you trying to be funny @Derf?
    By your definition, there were hundreds of “buying opportunities” between October 9, 2007 and March 9, 2009. Had you bought every time the market dropped 5, 6, 7% you’d have spent most of your amo before the best opportunities presented themselves. Think of “buying down” as if swigging on a pint of Jim Beam. Nice and slow. Pace yourself man. Live for another day.
    “The US bear market of 2007–2009 was a 17-month bear market that lasted from October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009, during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The S&P 500 lost approximately 50% of its value, but the duration of this bear market was just below average due to extraordinary interventions by governments and central banks to prop up the stock market.”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bear_market_of_2007–2009
    Here’s a “pop quiz” for Derf - How many times can something fall by 10% ?
  • nibbling away
    Come on Simon. You make comments like,
    "Stock prices are going much higher - higher than you can ever imagine."
    and
    " the bull market will last another 15 years",
    those aren't arrogant statements? By the way, ironically you made these comments close to the top of the market, Feb.15th.
    I'd like to see you stick around, but if someone points out statements you made that were so misleading at best, just say,
    "man I was wrong".
  • Another buying opportunity
    It keeps going down down down...probably sit this one out for couple of wks until dust settles
    One of my friend met chief of infectious disease physician [50+ plus experiences] of Large Major Hospital in Austin Tx states things maybe settling in 4-6 wks/slow down...he also says he has see anything like this before but it will pass. Less flu/cold and SARS and hopefully cousins of SARS Covid19 at mid april/warmer weather, less incident of transmissions. That is what we are hoping for. Will it last one year, he does not think so. Will it last few months? Maybe.
    We are still keeping our 80/20 in our 401k and retirement portfolio, DCA with continuous bimonthly distributions but probably wont add more monies for now.
    Plus we have to pay uncle Sam 2019 tax soon [april now july 15 tax deadlines]
    Maybe we are hovering near the bottom, but this is what some folks say last wk. Maybe new bottom today
    well at least the USA death rates hovering 1.4% but probably will be much lower next wk once have more data and less panic. 85s-90s% of infectious personnel show very little nor no symptoms, only old and sick patients have issues.
    China/Hong Kong and S.Korea are easing out slowly now. US will soon follow, don't know about Italy + EU though
    regards