Another buying opportunity No one would be happier than me if all the markets reversed themselves tomorrow and went straight up for the remainder of the year. Could happen. I’ll lay 25% odds on that happening. But if I was that omniscient, than why was I invested at all when the Dow was near 30,000?
So, I’m not omniscient. As I’ve said before ... there’s no cash stash here. I’m fully invested all the time with a small cash allocation - more in bonds. Unless you’re very young, caution is recommended. I have no desire to “day trade” (move in and out of markets frequently). But if I wanted to, T. Rowe Price wouldn’t go along anyway. They’d boot me out in a hurry.
What about the current situation makes one bullish at this juncture ? Airlines are closing down. Borders here and in Europe are shut. Tourism is 0. (Still a few drunk kids in Florida. Clearwater Beach will close Monday.) There are reliable predictions this crisis may last for a year or two, If large segments of the population are ill or dying, staying home and afraid to go anywhere, than who’s going to manufacture the things we need, grow our food, butcher the hogs & cattle, haul the food & merchandise to market, staff the stores or treat you when you need an appendectomy?
BTW - as of last evening you couldn’t buy toilet paper at Amazon - unless you opted for the “novelty” stuff with either Trump or Hillary printed in it.
Too Much to Bear
Part of market looking oversold
Another buying opportunity Are you trying to be funny
@Derf?
By your definition, there were hundreds of “buying opportunities” between October 9, 2007 and March 9, 2009. Had you bought every time the market dropped
5, 6, 7% you’d have spent most of your amo before the best opportunities presented themselves. Think of “buying down” as if swigging on a pint of
Jim Beam. Nice and slow. Pace yourself man. Live for another day.
“The US bear market of 2007–2009 was a 17-month bear market that lasted from October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009, during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The S&P 500 lost approximately 50% of its value, but the duration of this bear market was just below average due to extraordinary interventions by governments and central banks to prop up the stock market.”https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bear_market_of_2007–2009
Here’s a “pop quiz” for Derf -
How many times can something fall by 10% ?
nibbling away Come on Simon. You make comments like,
"Stock prices are going much higher - higher than you can ever imagine."
and
" the bull market will last another 15 years",
those aren't arrogant statements? By the way, ironically you made these comments close to the top of the market, Feb.1
5th.
I'd like to see you stick around, but if someone points out statements you made that were so misleading at best, just say,
"man I was wrong".
Another buying opportunity It keeps going down down down...probably sit this one out for couple of wks until dust settles
One of my friend met chief of infectious disease physician [50+ plus experiences] of Large Major Hospital in Austin Tx states things maybe settling in 4-6 wks/slow down...he also says he has see anything like this before but it will pass. Less flu/cold and SARS and hopefully cousins of SARS Covid19 at mid april/warmer weather, less incident of transmissions. That is what we are hoping for. Will it last one year, he does not think so. Will it last few months? Maybe.
We are still keeping our 80/20 in our 401k and retirement portfolio, DCA with continuous bimonthly distributions but probably wont add more monies for now.
Plus we have to pay uncle Sam 2019 tax soon [april now july 15 tax deadlines]
Maybe we are hovering near the bottom, but this is what some folks say last wk. Maybe new bottom today
well at least the USA death rates hovering 1.4% but probably will be much lower next wk once have more data and less panic. 85s-90s% of infectious personnel show very little nor no symptoms, only old and sick patients have issues.
China/Hong Kong and S.Korea are easing out slowly now. US will soon follow, don't know about Italy + EU though
regards