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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    Sorry wxman123 but to me you implied that Dow 30K was some great achievement and all should be happy across the land. You failed to address how that's important to the average person on the street or the world in general. Also neither you, I or anyone else knows how the market would have performed had Hillary gotten elected but history shows that the markets do better under a democratic administration (Google it yourself) and the markets were already on the upswing during the last few years of the Obama administration. Lastly it seems that plenty of people including many world leaders like Mr. Kerry even if you don't. From what I've seen he does a credible job free of corruption and ethical transgressions. I'd settle just for that.

    The fact that the DOW hit 30K is a great milestone and especially given the circumstances. There is a tremendous disparity between main street and wall street, true enough, but it's been that way for years. Trump didn't start the issue. Even if DOW 30K merely shows an economy that's holding it's own, that's still good. Operation Warp Speed, also good. Enterprise Zones, good. Paris Climate Treaty, Kerry's priority, maybe good for our grandkids but aside from that it's nothing more than interesting cocktail conversation for rich people who will be utterly unaffected by its economic consequences in the here and now. You are correct in that one can never prove what would have happened had circumstances been different, but all in all we are in a reasonable place as a country all things considered. What people who post about the supposed Trump disaster don't get is that they are as much a part of the problem as the other side in terms of divisiveness, which may be the biggest problem our country faces. Yes, Biden won, and I'm not going down the voter-fraud road, but there is a reason so many people still voted for Trump despite his notable flaws...and they are not all rednecks or idiots.
  • Value investing is struggling to remain relevant. What is VALUE
    This (article) is pretty good explaining VALUE

    It is now more than 20 years since the Nasdaq, an index of technology shares, crashed after a spectacular rise during the late 1990s. The peak in March 2000 marked the end of the internet bubble. The bust that followed was a vindication of the stringent valuation methods pioneered in the 1930s by Benjamin Graham, the father of “value” investing, and popularised by Warren Buffett. For this school, value means a low price relative to recent profits or the accounting (“book”) value of assets. Sober method and rigour were not features of the dotcom era. Analysts used vaguer measures, such as “eyeballs” or “engagement”. If that was too much effort, they simply talked up “the opportunity”.
    ....
    This would be comforting. It would validate a particular approach to valuing companies that has been relied upon for the best part of a century by some of the most successful investors. But the uncomfortable truth is that some features of value investing are ill-suited to today’s economy. As the industrial age gives way to the digital age, the intrinsic worth of businesses is not well captured by old-style valuation methods, according to a recent essay by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan of Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
    The job of stock picking remains to take advantage of the gap between expectations and fundamentals, between a stock’s price and its true worth. But the job has been complicated by a shift from tangible to intangible capital—from an economy where factories, office buildings and machinery were key to one where software, ideas, brands and general know-how matter most. The way intangible capital is accounted for (or rather, not accounted for) distorts measures of earnings and book value, which makes them less reliable metrics on which to base a company’s worth. A different approach is required—not the flaky practice of the dotcom era but a serious method, grounded in logic and financial theory. However, the vaunted heritage of old-school value investing has made it hard for a fresher approach to gain traction.
    ...
    In Graham’s day the backbone of the economy was tangible capital. But things have changed. What makes companies distinctive, and therefore valuable, is not primarily their ownership of physical assets. The spread of manufacturing technology beyond the rich world has taken care of that. Any new design for a gadget, or garment, can be assembled to order by contract manufacturers from components made by any number of third-party factories. The value in a smartphone or a pair of fancy athletic shoes is mostly in the design, not the production.
    In service-led economies the value of a business is increasingly in intangibles—assets you cannot touch, see or count easily. It might be software; think of Google’s search algorithm or Microsoft’s Windows operating system. It might be a consumer brand like Coca-Cola. It might be a drug patent or a publishing copyright. A lot of intangible wealth is even more nebulous than that. Complex supply chains or a set of distribution channels, neither of which is easily replicable, are intangible assets. So are the skills of a company’s workforce. In some cases the most valuable asset of all is a company’s culture: a set of routines, priorities and commitments that have been internalised by the workforce. It can’t always be written down. You cannot easily enter a number for it into a spreadsheet. But it can be of huge value all the same.
    A beancounter’s nightmare
    There are three important aspects to consider with respect to intangibles, says Mr Mauboussin: their measurement, their characteristics, and their implications for the way companies are valued. Start with measurement. Accounting for intangibles is notoriously tricky. The national accounts in America and elsewhere have made a certain amount of progress in grappling with the challenge. Some kinds of expenditure that used to be treated as a cost of production, such as r&d and software development, are now treated as capital spending in gdp figures. The effect on measured investment rates is quite marked (see chart 2). But intangibles’ treatment in company accounts is a bit of a mess. By their nature, they have unclear boundaries. They make accountants queasy. The more leeway a company has to turn day-to-day costs into capital assets, the more scope there is to fiddle with reported earnings. And not every dollar of r&d or advertising spending can be ascribed to a patent or a brand. This is why, with a few exceptions, such spending is treated in company accounts as a running cost, like rent or electricity.
    The treatment of intangibles in mergers makes a mockery of this. If, say, one firm pays $2bn for another that has $1bn of tangible assets, the residual $1bn is counted as an intangible asset—either as brand value, if that can be appraised, or as “goodwill”. That distorts comparisons. A firm that has acquired brands by merger will have those reflected in its book value. A firm that has developed its own brands will not.
    The second important aspect of intangibles is their unique characteristics. A business whose assets are mostly intangible will behave differently from one whose assets are mostly tangible. Intangible assets are “non-rival” goods: they can be used by lots of people simultaneously. Think of the recipe for a generic drug or the design of a semiconductor. That makes them unlike physical assets, whose use by one person or for one kind of manufacture precludes their use by or for another.
    In their book “Capitalism Without Capital” Jonathan Haskel and Stian Westlake provided a useful taxonomy, which they call the four Ss: scalability, sunkenness, spillovers and synergies. Of these, scalability is the most salient. Intangibles can be used again and again without decay or constraint. Scalability becomes turbo-charged with network effects. The more people use a firm’s services, the more useful they are to other customers. They enjoy increasing returns to scale; the bigger they get, the cheaper it is to serve another customer. The big business successes of the past decade—Google, Amazon and Facebook in America; and Alibaba and Tencent in China—have grown to a size that was not widely predicted. But there are plenty of older asset-light businesses that were built on such network effects—think of Visa and Mastercard. The result is that industries become dominated by one or a few big players. The same goes for capital spending. A small number of leading firms now account for a large share of overall investment (see chart 3).
    ....
    The third aspect of intangibles to consider is their implications for investors. A big one is that earnings and accounting book value have become less useful in gauging the value of a company. Profits are revenues minus costs. If a chunk of those costs are not running expenses but are instead spending on intangible assets that will generate future cashflows, then earnings are understated. And so, of course, is book value. The more a firm spends on advertising, r&d, workforce training, software development and so on, the more distorted the picture is.
    The above is a much better explanation why Apple IS NOT another "blend—a blue chip stock ".
    image image
  • Asset Performance 1985-2020
    HFSAX...Hundredfold Selective Alternative Fund...which has a $1 million minimum initial investment at Schwab, is apparently 100% invested in real estate, according to Schwab website. I like to screen for low risk/high return funds and this one regularly pops up.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    "PCI(CEF): 8.5%. YTD still at -10.1%"
    To be fair, though, this is, I think, just price. It additionally picked up probably 8.5-9% in dividends.
    Only price matters and the one you can trade with. NAV is a good way to assess other stuff. My numbers are from M* and I think the price total returns include all distributions. Price = -10.1 NAV= (-5.16)
    You can also look at SharpChart(link). It's off many times by a bit. There is a huge difference between NAV and Price and why ShrapPrice is another good source to verify M*
    Anyway, the purpose of this thread is bonds OEFs, the rest is just an additional info. If you want to invest and discuss CEFs please open another thread. I use riskier stuff(stocks,ETF,CEF,gold, whatever moves) for short term trading of hours to days but this is another subject.
    It's a long discussion in the past several years. When fix income leveraged CEFs doing great everybody talks about the price, when they crash the ones who lost money talk about NAV and how beautiful are the distributions. I only look at total returns it's the thing I see in my account. Again, please open another thread if you want to discuss high distribution investment.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    ? M* $10k-growth chart shows PCI mtd is ~5.9%, ytd ~-5.2%.
  • VANGUARD
    She is 34, so will be putting the 403b proceeds into something all-equity, ETFs or perhaps mfunds, I am thinking. Fidelity has plenty of options, nothing too gogo of course in the current-employer 401k, whereas in her own traditional rollover she may be able to invest in about anything she wishes. In this I may be advising her, or may not.
    It now does occur to me that she probably also could talk to Fido about putting the 403b proceeds into her existing Fido Roth, paying the 10% or 20%, since she depleted much of her Roth to buy a house. But that may be too complex a set of calcs and involve overthinking it, as she can always move trad IRA moneys to a Roth later on.
    Other factors are that she has a smart (but investing-inexperienced) young husband and also a baby on the way.
    The former-employer 403B proceeds are not that large, I believe, although she like most investors has greatly benefited from the crazy bull in her YA lifetime.
  • VANGUARD
    There are lots of what in most situations are minor differences between 401(k)s and IRAs. This includes at least a couple I don't think I saw in any of the links: Roth 401(k)s have RMDs, and so long as one is working, RMDs don't apply to a 401(k) with one's current employer.
    https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-required-minimum-distributions-rmds
    IMHO the key consideration is investment options; for most people the rest is noise. (If any of the many enumerated differences matter to you, I suggest going to authoritative sources for precise details as there are many nits to pick with popular press pieces.)
    If the Fidelity 401(k) plan in question has investment options that would be used and that are cheaper than comparable options in an IRA, then (minor differences aside) go with the 401(k), at least with part of the money. Otherwise go with the IRA. For example, if the 401(k) has a stable value fund that would be used, or offers cheaper pooled investments in lieu of mutual funds, the 401(k) might be preferable. (A downside of pooled investments is less disclosure about the investments and performance.)
    Note that no 401(k) plan is required to accept transfers. I suspect that nearly all do accept transfers from other qualified plans. Plans are less likely to accept transfers from IRAs, but some do. It's worth checking. That would facilitate transferring first to the IRA and later to the 401(k) if desired.
    https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-tege/rollover_chart.pdf
  • Talking Money & Investing

    From the conversation:
    The world of investing normally sees experts telling us the “right” way to manage our money. How often do these experts pull back the curtain and tell us how they invest their own money? Never. How I Invest My Money changes that. In this unprecedented collection, 25 financial experts share how they navigate markets with their own capital. In this honest rendering of how they invest, save, spend, give, and borrow, this group of portfolio managers, financial advisors, venture capitalists and other experts detail the “how” and the “why” of their investments.
    How I Invest My Money
  • Are Small Caps Breaking Out? IWM
    Smidcap stocks are on fire. The Russell 2000 RUT, +0.55% is up over 19% this month compared to 10% for the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.24%.
    Will it continue? This group has been beaten and battered for so long that many people simply doubt the move. But this is a big mistake. I don’t know about the next few days ahead, but smidcaps will continue to do well over the next year for the following five reasons.
    Small and midcap stocks will keep rocketing higher for 5 big reasons
  • Remember Money Market Funds?
    Investors in the U.S. money market are facing a grim year ahead. That’s the vision laid out by JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists, who predict that the supply of investable assets will shrink by about $300 billion while the amount of cash chasing them has nearly doubled to $3 trillion. A key factor on the supply side is that the quantity of Treasury bills is poised to shrink as the U.S. government replaces with longer-term debt much of the short-term borrowing it undertook in 2020 to pay for fiscal stimulus.
    U.S. Money-Market Investors Face Multiple Grim Trends in 2021
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    "PCI(CEF): 8.5%. YTD still at -10.1%"
    To be fair, though, this is, I think, just price. It additionally picked up probably 8.5-9% in dividends.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    image
    Observations for one month as of 11/27/2020:
    November was a great month for stocks and bond and interest rates were up. There were so many good performance monthly funds it was difficult to select just several.
    Multi: Several did 2-3%.

    Uncontrain/Nontrad:
    Several did over 2% for the month.
    HY Munis: Several did over 2% for the month.
    High Rated Bonds: Rates were up but several funds made over 1.5% for the month.
    Bank loans: EIFAX +2.4%.
    HY+EM: Both (FNMIX,HYG) over 3.5%.
    Corp: PIGIX 1.9%.
    SP500(SPY): 7.5%. VXUS(international): 11.6 is doing better than SPY for 1-3 months.
    PCI(CEF): 8.5%. YTD still at -10.1%

    My own portfolio

    I started the month with IOFIX+JASVX (both securitized). In the middle of the month sold JASVX and bought NHMAX. The performance was so good in November that securitized fund performance lagged the best. It was another good month for me, I made about 2% and it was one of the strongest month.
  • VANGUARD
    @davidmoran, My understanding is a 401K has many attributes that a rollover IRA does not have. That said, a 401K that resides with an old employer can be transferred to a new employer's 401K plan. This may be advantageous if the new employer's plan has great investment choices (tax deductible at any income, employer match, higher contribution amounts, low fees, high rated investment choices, loan provisions). Also, if she were to separate service from the new employer (401K employer) anytime after 55 she could withdraw from her 401K plan penalty free (normally a -10% penalty). 401K plans may have important protections as well (from lawsuits, debtors, etc.)
    A 401K can always be rollover over into rollover IRA, but it might worth boning up on the differences before she does.
    401(k) vs. IRA: Reading the Difference
    difference-between-401k-ira
    rollovers-of-retirement-plan-and-ira-distributions
    ira-vs-401k/
    12-reasons-not-to-roll-your-401k-into-an-ira
    legal-protection-401k-vs-ira
  • VANGUARD
    yup, she brought me the form, which seemed briefer than the above pdf, and it seems the same standard procedure as other brokerages --- you check rollover and then receiving institution name, and Vanguard does the rest
    She has both a 401k and a rollover IRA at Fido the recipient, and asked which would be better, so if anyone has two cents about that, tia.
  • Asset Performance 1985-2020
    A little dated 12/2019.
    www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/t044-s001-the-10-best-reits-to-buy-for-2020/index.html
  • Asset Performance 1985-2020
    The S&P 500 has generated excellent returns over the trailing 10 years.
    However, its performance the preceding 10 years (11-27-2000 to 11-26-2010) was subpar.
    Small Caps (IWM), REITs (VGSIX), International (VGTSX), Emerging Markets (VEIEX), and Investment-Grade Bonds (VBMFX) vastly outperformed the S&P 500 during this period. Link
    The $1M question: How will these asset classes perform in the future?
  • Asset Performance 1985-2020
    @FD1000, go back a decade and notice what a difference that decade (2000-2010) made for the S&P 500 where it lost 20% of its total value (inflation adjusted). Then there were the nineties (1990-2000) were the S&P 500 grew 340% (inflation adjusted).
    When you get on this roller coaster is as important as how long you ride it.