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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Q&A With Jeffrey Saut, CIO, Raymond James: Market Sweet Spots: Small & Midcaps
    FYI: Jeffrey Saut is chief investment strategist for Raymond James & Associates, which has more than $750 billion in assets under management. He is well-known for his insightful commentary regarding the stock market, and makes regular appearances on major financial news networks. ETF.com recently spoke with Saut to discuss his outlook for the U.S. economy and stocks.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/market-sweet-spots-small-midcaps
  • Charles Schwab vs. Vanguard
    @VintageFreak: You said, " The only reason I have multiple brokerage accounts is because I've over the years become a COB, and worry about scandalous behavior from people at any brokerage sharing same genes as Bernie Madoff and want to protect myself. May seem irrational to some, but it helps me sleep a bit better." Don't worry Freak, Black Sabbath has a song for that !
    Regards,
    Ted:)

    P.S. What does COB mean ?
  • iofix
    Impressive performance for 3y, but I might be jittery going forward about a fund comprising "securities backed by credit card receivables, automobiles, aircraft, student loans, and agency and nonagency residential and commercial mortgages ... also ... corporate debt securities".
    Altho the AUM's climbing, the trade's not going to last forever, and IOFIX lives in the junkier end of it, it's still primarily a legacy RMBS fund, the debt trade of the decade; see p. 2 of this fact sheet.
    The credit card, student loan, auto etc. debt makes up 0.5% of the portfolio. No reason to be complacent, but the non-mortgage ABS stake won't likely be a reason to worry about it for a while, anyway.
  • Identifying a good financial planner
    Like so many I was too conservative when I shoulda been more equities, but you know this is bull hindsight.
    We have all been insanely fortunate to have lived in this time.
    I had a lot of balanced and AA things in the 1980s and 1990s, also gogo equity funds (worked in tech; Robertson Stephens!!), and gradually moved more and more to LCV funds w some MC and SC and some balanced. Kids in college through the 2000s, plus lots of unemployment (freelancing).
    But now I am 71 and do not have anything like your situation, and this have moved to 75-25 equity-bond (more 50-50 if you count SS as a bond), and it is chiefly DSENX and PONAX w/ a few other things here and there (FLPSX, PCI, FRIFX ...). I really think I should be tilting back toward 50-50, and shall. With SS it will be effectively much more bond-heavy than 50-50.
    But ymmv, bigtime.
    I do think sleep-at-night is a high criterion.
    I like your diy approach but no reason not to mooch off edelman or equivalent, plus your ML friend as she is willing, plus free Fido. Depends on how much time you want to give to pondering. I assume you have a competent trust and estate atty already to help with your needs.
  • Identifying a good financial planner
    @MikeW, at Edelman as with most indies, maybe all, you can get an hour or more of free consult and general back and forth and scope of work for issue areas and all.
    I am sure this is followed w gentle sales pings, probably more than one.
    So you could get a headstart that way maybe if you could ward off followups.
    I also failed to mention that I too do it all via Fido and ML myself, self-directed w/ conferring sometimes (rarely), and have for 35y. Don't use / have never used Edelman and don't know the first thing about them except what I hear from their show and from articles.
  • Charles Schwab vs. Vanguard
    Dream on. If 'twere only so simple.
    Vanguard's fees are tiered and on both buy and sell. Fidelity's and Schwab's are buy side only, with Schwab having a (sort of) set fee for all TF funds, Fidelity charging more for some funds (e.g. Vanguard's).
    Fidelity has a back door for buying additional shares one time for $5/transaction. That's by using its automatic investment system and cancelling after one buy. Vanguard has an automatic investment system too, and it charges only $3/buy, but you have to let it do at least two buys before cancelling, so it's not an effective "on demand" tool. AFAIK, Schwab only allows automatic investments on OneSource (NTF) funds.
    Here's the comparison:
    Transaction    Schwab            Fidelity       Vanguard 
    Buy $76 or $49.95 $20 (online)
    8.5% if less $75 some funds $8 ($500K+ in VG funds)
    ($0 for < $100 buy) (e.g. Vanguard) $0 (first 25 w/$1M+ in VG funds)
    Sell $0 $0 same as buy
    Automatic - $5 $3
    Buy cancel after 1 cancel after 2
  • Charles Schwab vs. Vanguard
    "An important factor for me is reducing minimums to get into institutional funds. For example, you can get into PIMIX with $25K at Vanguard. At Schwab, you'll need $100K."
    Thank you msf ... I did not realize that.
    I suspect the trading fee remains about for $50 for non-NTF funds between all three houses.
    c
  • Buy-Sell-Ponder, anticipating April, 2018
    I'll share...
    What seems to be working in my portfolio YTD:
    FSUTX - strong steady Mo (momentum) since March 2018
    FSMEX - Strong Mo
    FSRPX - Strong Mo
    POAGX - Aggressive active management
    PRMTX - Keeps on impressing. A category over-achiever
    VHCOX - Aggressive active management
    PRNHX - a small position that has had a big year YTD (investors remorse, wish I owned more)
    USNQX - Volatile, but rewarding
    Steady Eddy's (have good risk-reward characteristics):
    PRWCX - Love this funds goal... "achieve market returns with 2/3rd the downside risk"
    VMVFX - a new fund that seems worth DCA into
    FMIJX - A short lived fund (2011) that offers exposure outside the US
    BRUFX - Manager continues to reduce downside risk while optimizing upside
    BTBFX - I was impressed with how this fund navigated 2008
    VHT - Healthcare seems to be a fund for all seasons
    PRHSX - ditto HC
    What seems to have faltered:
    PRIDX - Struggling, but a hold for me...down 2% YTD
    SFGIX - Highly correlated losses with EM losses...down 11% YTD
    VWO - Strong US currencies are making EM markets less profitable...down 10% YTD
    HJPSX - A country that has relied very heavily on QE for Equity-Inflation
    VWINX - having a rare negative year
    MINDX - Seems to catch cold when EM sneezes
    PONAX - We've parted ways...small position
    PARWX - A new position
    Ticker YTD Perf Port WT
    VHT 12.20% 0.21%
    VHCOX 11.10% 5.43%
    VWINX -1.04% 2.26%
    PRHSX 13.72% 6.53%
    PRNHX 20.11% 0.11%
    PRIDX -1.96% 4.87%
    PRMTX 9.70% 2.88%
    PRWCX 6.19% 14.64%
    BRUFX 3.46% 4.89%
    POAGX 13.08% 15.53%
    VWO -9.95% 1.58%
    PONAX -0.39% 0.27%
    SFGIX -11.26% 4.51%
    FMIJX -1.27% 4.58%
    MINDX -2.07% NA
    USNQX 15.82% NA
    FSRPX 19.47% 4.82%
    FSMEX 19.62% 4.34%
    VMVFX 6.28% 2.38%
    BTBFX 5.67% 2.38%
    FRIFX 1.84% 2.28%
    HJPSX -5.11% 2.10%
    FSUTX 10.25% 2.45%
    PARWX New 3.96%
    USAXX Cash 7%
    Allocation Weights/Returns YTD
    image
  • Charles Schwab vs. Vanguard
    I agree that Schwab offers a broader range of products, though a choice between the two when investing beyond Vanguard is not as clear cut as it might appear:
    "Schwab offers a broader range of no fee mutual funds and ETFs through its OneSource program, with hundreds of candidates compared to Vanguard’s 129 mutual funds and 56 ETFs."
    Only for another week. Then Vanguard pulls ahead with its 3419 NTF funds (from its search engine) and over 1800 ETFs. Schwab's fund screener shows Schwab has 4342 funds in its OneSource (NTF) program, and Schwab offers "more than 250" ETFs through OneSource. Not that I think number of NTF funds is a particularly good metric.
    Investopedia is correct that Vanguard's banking services are close to nonexistent. While its 0.25% rate (the article is out of date) on checking is better than TBTF banks', it's well below what many banks pay. Schwab uses cash accounts as a significant source of revenue.
    "Vanguard has no automatic sweep into money market funds so free cash in the brokerage account won’t earn interest unless the customer buys the funds manually."
    Why would you need a sweep when the VBS settlement account is VMFXX, with a current SEC yield of 1.89%, over 9x what Schwab pays?
    An important factor for me is reducing minimums to get into institutional funds. For example, you can get into PIMIX with $25K at Vanguard. At Schwab, you'll need $100K.
    These days, I use Schwab primarily for its worldwide, foreign-transaction-fee free, fee-rebate ATM card. In addition, a very small number of financial institutions insist on ACH transfers only from a "real" bank and not a brokerage account. Schwab Bank is a real bank.
    Finally, I think Schwab has significantly better service than Vanguard; fortunately that's something I haven't had much need for with either one of them.
  • Serious Mutual Fund Returns: 40 Years Of Annual Returns: (FMAGX) - (SPECX) - (ACRNX)
    FYI: If you have any clients retiring today, and they’ve had money working for the past 40 years, large caps were their best bet. Ideally, large-cap growth.
    With all due respect to small-cap enthusiasts, high-yield fanatics or gold bugs, large caps have dominated a rollicking good ride from the late 1970s to today. These funds powered through good times and bad: sky-high inflation, bull markets, crashes and irrational exuberance. There were low points along the way, of course. That’s why we added both the best, and worst, annual performances for each fund, in addition to the 40-year annualized average.
    Spoiler alert, the worst year for each one was 2008, the year of the financial crisis. The best year for 11 of 20 of these funds was either 1979 or 1980. But before you get too envious of the days of disco, bear in mind that the 30-year mortgage rate reached 16% in 1980, according to numbers from FreddieMac.
    To be sure, a lot of funds aren’t eligible for this list. Any fund launched in the past 40 years obviously won’t be here, impressive gains notwithstanding. The biggest case in point: There are no ETFs on this list because they’re too new for our time frame in this analysis. The first ETFs made their appearance on the scene in the early 1990s.
    So which funds have posted the best performance for the past 40 years? Scroll through to see the top 20. All data is from Morningstar as of 12/31/2016.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://bic.financial-planning.com/slideshow/top-funds-for-the-past-40-years
    FMAGX annual return since inception, 2/5/63, is 16.04%
  • Buy-Sell-Ponder, anticipating April, 2018
    I'll step forward, again, and restart the thread as we open September. Some may remember this thread was started by Scott who left the board three years ago, or so; and, I kept it going with his blessing. In the meantime the below link will take you to my last reported thinking.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/42056/old-skeet-s-market-barometer-and-report-june-july-recaps#latest
  • iofix
    @Junkster et al.
    IOFIX, 3 year chart.
    In many years of charts, I've not seen this relative to the top portion of the chart for RSI. This fund has generally maintained an above 70 RSI (daily or weekly chart) and is currently at 93.5. Above 70, for the technical aspect, is a "watch this", as this investment has entered an "overbought" area. To maintain in the 80-90 range is very unusual. Most technical folks would be yelling, sell. One may also see the price spikes near the end of calendar months as noted by @Junkster, including a most similar pattern from August of 1 year ago.
    @Junkster , have you an opinion as to whether the technical aspect is worth regard.
    @Tony , if you still receive notifications from MFO; take a look and please offer your technical view opinion.
    This link provides a basic description of ABS, relative to some IOFIX exposure. To the right edge of the page is a list of defined aspects of ABS.
    Asset backed securities
    Whatever management has figured out at this time in the investment area(s) is surely working.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Jonathan Clements: Low Fidelity: Five Key Questions
    Mr. Clements should have moved back another decade into the late 1970's when Fidelity was hammering upon the 5-8% loads charged by Merrill Lynch and similar organizations for active managed mutual funds.
    Yes, Fido had some load funds, too; but at a lower "fee". The Fido eventually disappeared, too.
    I'll call this the "K-Mart" effect. Volume, volume, volume........force the competitors to match or get out of the way, using the low margin to gain market share and still make a profit on large volume. I had a good view of this, seeing the exposure of K-Mart (Michigan corp.) in Michigan in the early days.
    It is not difficult to imagine one's hard won money being invested in a fund in 1980 with a front load of (lets be generous) of 7%; versus today, where the same type of investment may be had as an index or etf with an expense ratio of .04%.
    Nuff said......
  • Buy-Sell-Ponder, anticipating April, 2018
    This is such a great thread ... It would be nice if someone would start hosting it again. I did it for a couple of years and felt ... Well, it was time to pass it on to another ... Wonder what happened to @pudnhead?
    @Old_Skeet,
    Re The Pudd - Don’t know - But I like to think he got it right with one of his typical “long shots” and won a ton of money. I’d guess he’s out relaxing somewhere on the sun-deck of his 200-foot yacht mid-Atlantic and out of reach of any communications. Or, he might be reading the board somewhere and laughing at those of us still striving to make the perfect call.
    Of course, anyone is free to post their recent trades at any time, regardless of the BOS thread. I’ll say I do enjoy reading your normally very thorough weekly commentaries, although my approach is far less complex - perhaps because I hold maybe a quarter the number of funds you do. Was wondering whether you posted this weekend? Perhaps I missed seeing it?
    Personally, I’m in the distance out from retirement phase (I guess similar to an Apollo flight out on the far side of the moon) and so don’t take much risk. I’m also leary of this long term bull and geopolitical environment and rising rate scenario. Still sitting with a stable Core weighting just over 75%; about 19.8% in short-term near cash-equivalency funds; and a little over 5% in an equity fund. That’s not as Draconian as it sounds, since within that Core are some moderate risk funds like DODBX, RPGAX, OAKBX, PRPFX - along with a slice of mining, real estate and global infrastructure.
    Last week I switched my real estate holding from Oppenheimer (OREAX) to Price (TRREX) for no good reason except that my accounts are held directly through the fund companies. While the performances are near identical, it had the effect of burning some excess cash at Price and building a bit at Oppenheimer which might be put to good use there should market valuations drop. Oppenheimer has a slightly more aggressive near cash equivalancy fund in OUSGX which might yield a percent better longer term than TRBUX which I use at Price. And the transaction gave me a chance to toss a few more dollars into my depressed gold fund, OPGSX - literally pennies, because I consider gold too volatile to speculate on - though continue to like it longer term. Except for that minor rearranging of deck chairs, nothing cooking.
  • Mutual fund early redemption penalty at TD Ameritrade and other brokerages

    So basically $100 total to buy and sell a transaction fee fund. I simply said I was paying $17 to sell and $17 to buy and then you said I was getting the short end of the stick. I couldn’t understand your logic of how I was getting the short end of the stick.
    The way I misread your writing, I thought the $17 was a short term redemption fee, not the total fee. My error.
    It seems like you're not merely getting grandfathered rates which would have added Scottrade's $49 short term redemption fee to the $17 TF, but the better of TDA's rates and Scottrade's rates. Not the short end of the stick at all!
    Fee          Scottrade  TDA   Your rate
    TF buy $49 $17 $17
    TF sell $49 $17 $17
    Short term fee $0 $49 $0
    (for TF funds)
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/25744/scottrade-s-new-90-day-fund-fees
    https://web.archive.org/web/20161011203253/https://www.scottrade.com/documents/alt/CommissionsandFees.pdf
  • iofix
    Thank you Junkster.
    I have considered DPFNX, but will look closer. I remember feeling a bit uncomfortable about the advisor in 2017, which was not helped when I saw this earlier this year ...
    Deer Park SEC Probe
    Here's side-by-side comparison of IOFIX and DPFNX this past year (99 peers):
    Risk & Return Metrics ...
    image
    And looking back 3 years:
    Period Performance ...
    image
    Batting Averages ...
    image
  • GPMCX
    Here is another news commentary on MECAX (not to hijack the thread but MECAX was mentioned above):
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/small--and-micro-cap-stocks-get-another-look-as-the-sp-500-index-stalls-2018-08-17
  • Mutual fund early redemption penalty at TD Ameritrade and other brokerages
    @Junkster, can you point toward the book and magazine articles? If you are up a mil over simple SP500 (is this only a few percent of total assets?) in this bull market (and why were you working at all??), this 71yo would like to study up. Will also send you all my moneys and beg you to take on, or guide.
    A few here are aware of the book etc. it was written long ago is outdated and I don’t recommend purchase. My point was what was I to do with only $76,000 in lifetime contributions to my IRA?Invest it in an S&P index fund? Instead I had to think outside of the box if I ever wanted to have a respectable nest egg for retirement.
  • Mutual fund early redemption penalty at TD Ameritrade and other brokerages
    I'll try briefly beating a dead horse one more time :-)
    TDA charges a "regular" (not grandfathered) customer $49.99 to by a TF fund, and $49.99 to sell that same fund, regardless of whether the sale is after 1 day, 180 days, or 10 years. (See, e.g. this 2012 Forbes article saying that that TDA charges fees on both buys and sells of TF funds.)
    It's charging nothing extra to sell that TF fund in under 180 days. That's why I view it as charging no special short term trading fee on TF funds. You won't save money by waiting 180 days to sell.
    Exactly, So basically $100 total to buy and sell a transaction fee fund. I simply said I was paying $17 to sell and $17 to buy and then you said I was getting the short end of the stick. I couldn’t understand your logic of how I was getting the short end of the stick.