actually this is giving me confidence in the fund. It's got more than half in cash, a heckuva bond mgr, and it's giving you 4.4%. This might be the "new" RPHYX

2 completely different funds.
RPHYX made 2.1% average annually in the last 3 years. Why would I want to own this fund? The only reason maybe cash "sub" since many bond funds I own made a lot more. RPHYX is mostly short term duration HY bonds + cash & Equivalents.
MWFSX is a Multi sector fund. Please find me more bond funds with over 50% in cash. It made only 0.42% in the last month. That is at the bottom 2% in its category. For 3 months it is at the bottom 12%.
The only confidence I have is when I see performance but maybe they are right and why rates started to go up in the last several days :-)

Here is the problem with the GMO team. They are wrong for years. The SP500 made over 10% more than what they predicted at the end of 2010 for the next 7 years. It is not that clear but the first green bar says that US large cap will do 0.4% + 2.5% inflation = 2.9% average annually in the next 7 years...or...EM will do 4.1+2.5=6.6 but they lagged US LC. GMO have been saying that EM will be better than US for 10 years already.
You can see in this (link) what SPY did vs EEM from 12-31-2010 in the next 7 years.
(image)
But they are not alone. Arnott models didn't work either and why PAUIX made under 2% annually for 10 years.
Gundlach, the bond king, predicted in 2018 that the 10 year Treasury will be at 6% in 2021.
And it's not the only thing: over the last 10 years we heard that
inflation must be high.
Valuations are ridiculous.
Inverted yield means recession.
So, what is the reason why markets are up and the prediction are off? When the Fed interfere models, history and prediction can be off by years?
Sure, one day some predictions will true, after all, if you predict things for years, eventually you will be right.

I agree, Bobby. Half in cash ready to deploy on opportunity with a current 4.4% yield AND low volatility, that’s appealing to me. Not for a huge section of my portfolio, but 5 to 10% for sure.

It's not about jobs coming back but leaving permanently as we speak. Companies like Vanguard & TVA (high profile) are moving the IT jobs to India. It's not that they can't afford IT jobs done by American workers but greed supreme.Those jobs are NEVER-NEVER-NEVER going to come back. A slap to America, they will bring cheap India H1 'professionals' to guard the hen house.

Howdy folks,
Mid Michigan but am not having any trouble in the stores like Meijers and Horrocks. 99% of peeps wearing masks. I do avoid busy times of day and crowds. Geez, you want to go early to any inside space before too many people have been. None of the heating nor a/c units are built to bring in outside air other than the air makeup units over restaurant cooking areas. Retrofitting is costly. Until then you want to go early to minimize your load exposure.
Jobs. Wow. So much disruption that's harmful. So much opportunity that's exciting. So much positive reallocation of resources - hopefully. Problem is getting through the next 12 - 18 months or so.
So many jobs are completely gone. Look at the industries that are obsolete. My niece is one the finest restaurant minds I've ever encountered owning three kickass sports bars. She had to sell one just to give herself a half ass chance. Doesn't matter how good you are at making buggy whips in 1915.
This is what is happening to whole industries. Much of this was slowly taking place but the virus is bringing change - at warp speed. Virtual life? Was possible and now it's mandatory AND cost beneficial. Cities? Check the real estate market and building occupancy rates going forward. Large crowded places and gatherings? Really?!?
Enough of the good news. Earlier I felt we'd get back to normal after a few years. Now I don't know. As a species, we're stupide but us Americans are even worse. The idiocy being displayed around the country for ideological reasons is not only insane but will cause this to devolve into exceedingly bad times. I fear this coming winter.
"Get ready, little lady. Hell is coming to breakfast.":
and so it goes,
peace and wear the damn mask,
rono

Mr. Montier is a senior member of GMO's asset allocation team. He also looks like he hangs out with Guy Fieri, the Diners, Drive-ins and Dives guys.

Mr. Montier is English and believes the behavior of the US stock market of late is "absurd." Here's an excerpt from his August 12, 2020 letter, for what interest it holds.
David
- - - - -
Never before have I seen a market so highly valued in the face of overwhelming uncertainty. Yet today the U.S. stock market stands at nosebleed-inducing levels of multiple, whilst the fundamentals seem more uncertain than ever before. It is as if Mr. Market is taking a tail risk (albeit a good one) and pricing it with certainty.
Now let me be clear, I don’t claim to know the answers to any of the deep imponderables that face the world today. I have no idea what the shape of the recovery will be, I have no idea how easy it will be to get all the unemployed back to work. I have no idea if we will see a second wave of Covid-19 or what we will do if we do encounter such an event. But I do know that these questions exist. And that means I should demand a margin of safety – wriggle room for bad outcomes if you like. Mr. Market clearly does not share my view.
Investing is always about making decisions under a cloud of uncertainty. It is how one deals with the uncertainty that distinguishes the long-term value-based investor from the rest. Rather than acting as if the uncertainty doesn’t exist (the current fad), the value investor embraces it and demands a margin of safety to reflect the unknown. There is no margin of safety in the pricing of U.S. stocks today. Voltaire observed, “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” The U.S. stock market appears to be absurd.

Good day All. Wed. added to svaax. Looks to me to have more upside to get back to where it was pre - covid - 19.

Out of ETFs? I don't think so. But I have been caught in low-liquidity stocks that took hours, and in some cases, days, to fill a simple order to dump just 1 or 2000 shares ... sometimes even that could move the needle on very thinly-traded symbols. As a result of those lessons learned, I rarely touch stuff without ~80-100K or more daily volume.

Hi @rforno

but when I want to get out of a position, I want to *get* out, not wait hours for an order to fill. By contrast, if you want to sell an OEF, you can be guaranteed out by the end of the day.

Have you experienced significant delays "getting out" of some etf's, etc. ?

As the same concepts, not trying to cause any optimisms, seems many Usa workers /factories/ companies /refineries turned to COVID-19 driven Products [ppe, cleansed solutions priducts, medical supplies, masks, online social distancing platforms, more iPads/ laptops produced. Wonder what happen to these new lines producers once COVID-19 data improves and eventually everything scale back in 12 -24 months..
Another massive recessions/slow down?
Lots folks already loss jobs last 4 months and ~ 30s% of health care workers/ city govt officials /offices scale back hours or laid off/employees let go

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4368106-municipal-bond-investing-in-covidminus-19-era
Municipal Bond Investing In The COVID-19 Era
This is a follow up to my first article on this topic published in April 2019.
It gives some updated ideas when buying individual muni bonds and muni bond funds.
Other considerations for bond investors
Still reasonable safe assets and maybe slightly better yields than cash. I would consider getting more if near retirement

Not that it matters, but the tickers for the last two funds (Int'l Gov Bond and US Core Bond) are reversed.
This filing is in a sense a followup to a filing last February liquidating the four Wells Fargo Factor Enhanced funds.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55305/wells-fargo-liquidates-several-enhanced-mutual-funds.
All 8 funds (those four and the four here) were supposedly introduced in August, 2017. Supposedly, because the initial prospectus names all eight funds, but only has info on seven. The eighth fund, Int'l Gov Bond Fund, was then (re)introduced in a separate prospectus and launched Nov. 2017.
Seeing a whole batch of fund launched (sort of) simultaneously, then shut down within three years, makes one wonder what the management company was thinking.
The four shut down earlier would seem to be an ill fated attempt at latching onto a fad (or trend if you prefer), factor investing. The four shut down here are different.
Admittedly international bonds (whether sovereign or EM) are not exactly mainstream. But they're not exactly the flavor du jour either. The management team is part of the larger team for WF International Bond Fund ESIYX, which has a fairly poor record and under $100M AUM. It's no surprise that the two funds here failed to take in much above $1M. What was WF thinking in launching a fund more narrowly focused (restricted to government debt) and a niche fund (EM bonds)?
The US Core Bond Fund likewise holds only around $1M AUM. Why did this one fail? Okay, a lackluster record, but it's got mostly the same team as WF's Core Plus Bond Fund STYAX that has done a bit better, and has over $1B in assets. A mainstream category and a competent team. Another me too fund in a crowded field?
The High Yield Corporate differs from the others - it has almost $1B in AUM. It fared a bit worse than its peers in the March swoon, likely because it holds mostly lower grade junk. But its overall record (3 years) is okay, and it's got enough assets to be profitable.
One can say that it makes sense to close down seven of these funds; but then it made little sense to launch them. The reverse may be true of the last fund. Either way, it leads one to wonder what WF is doing launching funds.
FWIW, the remaining "new" WF funds (shorter than five years) are:
Dynamic Target Date Funds - a series distinct from its traditional Dow Jones Target Date Funds
Global Investment Grade Credit Fund WGCIX - $76M AUM, primarily for institutional/qualified plans
Low Volatility US Equity (WLVLX) - $57M AUM, launched 2016
Municipal Sustainability (WMSAX) - $26M AUM, launched this February
Special Int'l Small Cap (WICIX) - $5M AUM, primarily for institutional/qualified plans

Hi @David_Snowball et al
This is a critical statement, IMHO: "361 Capital shared and interesting note that talked about which assets have, in the past, benefited when the US dollar weakened (a predictable consequence of zero interest rates on dollar bank securities and trillions of new issuance). They report that small, value and emerging are in the top four in both of the preceding periods they examined."
Not to any reference to D & C in particular, but the markets overall; globally.
The market melt of 2008 brought us to the "this time is different", and we investors remain with this circumstance; except now, "this time is REALLY different", IMHO.
The "in the past" in bold above needs to have a reference point(s) for both 2008 and what is now the PRE-Covid, CURRENT-Covid and another point in the future that will be a POST-Covid.
My view.
Regards,
Catch

Hello
Added more slv, brk.b. started new position in PAA
Have more divs coming in 8.15th, not really sure what to do with them, maybe buy more index equities or add more to BIAWX/spread among others

The US lets creative destruction determine the shape of the economy after it emerges from a crisis more than most developed economies. Will that help the US economy to prosper more in a post-covid19 world? And, will the US safety net perform well enough to be of substantial assistance during the transition? Just concerned and wondering.....

“This recession is unusual in the extent of permanent (job) reallocation that will ultimately result,” Davis said.
He and two co-authors have estimated that up to 40% of layoffs in March through May were permanent. That figure will likely rise, he said, the longer the pandemic squeezes the economy.
“We’re kind of past the stage where we’re quickly recalling workers to their old jobs,” Davis said, “and getting to the stage that people will need to get new jobs at new companies or in new industries.”

https://apnews.com/89992979ca3c3ba72eb2cd31a9ca0e5d

“Is this in reference to Dodge & Cox?“
It would seem so. Franklin Templeton is headquartered in San Mateo, 20 miles from SF, but I believe it to be publicly owned. D&C of course is privately held.
To play Devil’s advocate here ... One reason to diversify among managers is the expectation that some will outperform others over short and intermediate terms. A long leash out to perhaps a dozen years is long enough to take into consideration likely changes in management at the firm as well as changes in investor sentiment which in turn affect the fund’s return.
Yes - I’m a bit chagrined comparing DODBX to PRWCX over past 12 years (roughly the tenure of David Giroux). But there was no way to predict that type of disparity 12 years ago that I know of. Without digging below the surface, let’s just say that the management styles and focus of those two funds are quite disparate (even though M* may place them in the same category). My inclination at this point would be to tilt slightly in favor of DODBX, out of belief in reversion to the mean and also the recognition that it’s hard to outwit low fees. (But it hurts a bit looking at the 10 year charts.)
Note: I have owned both of the above mentioned funds for more than 15 years.
A Tribute to Obsolescence
“Tellson’s Bank by Temple Bar was an old-fashioned place, even in the year one thousand seven hundred and eighty. It was very small, very dark, very ugly, very incommodious. It was an old-fashioned place, moreover, in the moral attribute that the partners in the House were proud of its smallness, proud of its darkness, proud of its ugliness, proud of its incommodiousness. They were even boastful of its eminence in those particulars, and were fired by an express conviction that, if it were less objectionable, it would be less respectable. This was no passive belief, but an active weapon which they flashed at more convenient places of business. Tellson’s (they said) wanted no elbow-room, Tellson’s wanted no light, Tellson’s wanted no embellishment. Noakes and Co.’s might, or Snooks Brothers’ might; but Tellson’s, thank Heaven!”
Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1081400/000108140020000939/factorbasedsupp.htm
497 1 factorbasedsupp.htm
SUPPLEMENT TO THE PROSPECTUS AND
STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
OF
WELLS FARGO FACTOR-BASED FUNDS
For the Wells Fargo Emerging Markets Bond Fund (WBEMX)
Wells Fargo High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (WYCBX)
Wells Fargo International Government Bond Fund (WIGBX)
Wells Fargo U.S. Core Bond Fund (WUSBX)
(each a “Fund”, together the “Funds”)
At a meeting held on August 10-12, 2020, the Board of Trustees of Wells Fargo Funds Trust unanimously approved the liquidation of the Funds.
The liquidation of the Funds is expected to occur after close of business on or about August 27, 2020. Shareholders of the Funds on the date of liquidation will receive a distribution of their account proceeds in complete redemption of their shares.
August 13, 2020
II080/P1300SP

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-08-11/Gold-silver-the-range-trade.html
Gold & silver: the range trade
[Gold is at a point where most of the horrific Corona crisis news is priced in, the US economy continues to strengthen, and not enough government handout money has been spent by Main Street to create inflation]
Maybe bullish for gold slv long term as long as Feds keep pumping in more monies/maintain low interest rates to keep economy afloat

Dry gas, natural gas that consists of little more than methane, producing little condensable heavier hydrocarbon compounds such as propane and butane when brought to the surface. In the United States, dry gases are defined as those that contain less than 0.1 gallon of condensables per 1,000 cubic feet of produced gas.
Dry natural gas is at least 85% methane, but often more. Wet natural gas contains some methane, but also contains liquids such as ethane, propane or butane. ... The natural gas used in homes and business for heating, cooling, cooking and electricity generation is dry gas. It can also be compressed and used as a fuel.
Wet vs. Dry Natural Gas. What's the Difference

One can see from the images below, the glide path of these new funds is the same as the glide path of T. Rowe Price's Retirement Fund series of target date funds. That's TRP's more aggressive target date series.
The difference seems to be that these new funds, as might be inferred from the name, use both actively and passively managed funds in their portfolios. This results in a somewhat lower ER for the new funds (around a dozen basis points less).

Retirement funds' glide path:

Re: “ BRCAX as a ton in cash ! Prnex looks to have some upside.”
@Derf - That’s a byproduct of their methodology. I can’t speak for all commodity funds, but a good many hold high levels of cash and bonds. Sometimes you’ll even see a figure like 150% in bonds.
Relates to their buying futures contracts instead of the actual commodity. You don’t suppose Invesco wants to start stockpiling corn or hogs? That also explains how oil (on paper anyway) could fall below 0 for a day. I’m guessing they’re required to keep an amount of cash on hand to cover those assets (or a large portion of them) which they’re holding only in “paper” form.
Here’s how it works from Invesco’s site:
“The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in derivatives and other commodity-linked instruments that provide exposure to the following four sectors of the commodities markets: agriculture, energy, industrial metals and precious metals.”
Notice the words: “derivatives”, “commodity-linked instruments“
I mentioned this type of fund because if you can stomach it (not everybody can) it provides much truer diversification away from equities than you get in a natural resource fund. A fund like PRNEX, for example, is rocked quite a bit by the equity markets because it’s investing in companies that buy and sell natural resources A fund like BRCAX, on the other hand, is trying to track the actual price action in the commodity itself - so it’s a purer play on commodities. It’s like the difference between owning a lumber company and owning the timber itself.
Note: Much of the “upside” Derf notes in PRNEX is a byproduct of generally favorable equity markets. In a slumping stock market, that upside may turn to “downside” even though commodities in general hold their own or appreciate.