Hello,
Here is the Market barometer report for week ending November 17th.
This week the barometer closed with a reading of 147 (up one point form the previous week) leaving the S&P 500 Index in fair value. The Index closed down 0.13% for the week at 2579. The three best performing sectors for the week were discreationary (XLY) up 1.27% ... staples (XLP) up 0.88% ... and, utilities (XLU) up 0.54%. Industrials (XLI) scored just barely undervalued this week on a technical score basis.
Currently, Old_Skeet is just watching and awaiting a pull back (3 to 5 percent) before putting new money to work.
Have a good week ... and, thanks for stopping by and reading.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."

Thanks Ted. This new inverse ETF makes me chuckle.
While it's true that XRT is the most shorted ETF, it's also true that high short interest in an ETF is usually a predictor of OUTperformance, not UNDERperformance, at least with ETFs that are decently traded.
Here's a test I ran on the period 1999-2017:
Assumptions:
Universe: All Unleveraged Equity ETFs in the Top 50% of average daily turnover.
Rebalance: Weekly on Mondays at the Close
Slippage: Assumed at 0.1% per trade
Ranking: Buy Top 10 each week with highest Short Interest Ratio
Results: 7.2% annualized return for the period, compared to 5.9% for SPY.

Hi Ben. I'm afraid I am the culprit here. I read each of David's profiles and make an "objective" assessment. At the time, he mentioned a few dings, which influenced my assessment. If I recall, here are some of the statements:
Management’s stake in the fund
As of the last Statement of Additional Information (April 2013), Mr. Reddy and Mr. Cook each had between $1 – 10,000 invested in the fund. The manager’s commitment is vastly greater than that outdated stat reveals. Effectively all of his personal capital is tied up in the fund or Zeo Capital’s fund operations. None of the fund’s directors had any investment in it. That’s no particular indictment of the fund since the directors had no investment in any of the 98 funds they oversaw.
Expense ratio
The reported expense ratio is 1.50% which substantially overstates the expenses current investors are likely to encounter.
Fund website
Effectively none. Zeo.com contains the same information you’d find on a business card. (Yeah, I know.) Because most of their investors come through referrals and personal interactions it’s not a really high priority for them. They aspire to a nicely minimalist site at some point in the foreseeable future. Until then you’re best off calling and chatting with them.
Break, break.
Venk and Paige were kind enough to provide an update via telecom last month and after discussion with David, we're trying to set-up a visit with them in mid December for a profile update in January commentary.
Since 2014, they've doubled in AUM ... much better website now, lower er (if not low enough), not sure of director stake yet. But, in any case, they remain genuinely thoughtful in approach to investing and investor solicitation.
Here are some of their impressive risk numbers (click screen to enlarge):

ZEOIX has done precisely what I tasked it to do...serve as a low risk bucket one holding, essentially cash-like, but also to ideally earn 2-3% a year in a no-drama fashion. And, it actually is the best performing of the 5 funds similarly tasked.
Ted, the problem you're making in your analysis is to compare this against a pool of high-yield bond funds...the same mistake that MS makes, and which has been discussed more than once in the MFO commentary.

*hmgodwin

Thank you, openice. I didnt know that the past commentaries were available. Such is sufficient to determine if a personal investment is warranted. Thank you for the knowledge.

Appreciate that!
@lewis braham
Thanks for your cautionary remarks about composite returns -- well-taken. I also find these returns helpful but not definitive.
Here is a summary of what I learned from a call this morning with Louis Shapiro, one of the PMs-- what he said and what he's verified from my own research/assessment.
The managers have never had liquidity issues in the small cap composite despite having concentrated positions. At the same time, he acknowledges that liquidity could happen in the funds -- a point you raised. What they are hoping for is that the new funds will have sticker assets as well. (Of course, this is unknown,)
His feeling is based on holders in the composites having been long-term investors who have invested more when markets have done well and in those that have done poorly -- a conclusion I reached and brought to his attention after seeing the performance statistics for all their calendar years. He said that they will see how new fund investors react to dislocations in the markets and with more AUM in these funds.
Last, he feels that the new products are repeatable and scalable for those who are not chasing performance, who understand the strategies because they are clearly communicated, e.g., the funds do well in up markets but also see that most of the money is made when stocks fall out of favor for certain periods. (The practical qualifiers)
The funds are now available at Schwab:
SMID Funds: Basic and IRA-- SHDYX N Class $100 basic and IRA; SHDIX I Class 250K; SHDYX Y Class 100K
All-Cap Funds: Basic and IRA -- SHXPX N Class, SHXYX Y Class, and SHXIX -- Ibid.
So currently, the preceding is all I can write. I will remain cautious in view of what you've said and the summary above.

@MFO: A ZEOIX by any other name would smell just like another high-yield bond fund, a far cry from a money market fund ! It has lag the average high-yield bond fund, YTD, 1-5 Yrs., has an extremely high ER and below average yield. So once again, I 'm sticking it in the over for Thanksgiving Day turkey !
Regards,
Ted

Thought this link was worthy of the thread.
The article's introduction grabs you like a good novel:

It had been a little over a week since anyone had seen Karina Chikitova. The forest she had walked into nine days prior was known for being overrun with bears and wolves. Luckily, she was with her dog and it was summer in the Siberian Taiga, a time when the night time temperature only dropped to 42 degrees (6 Celsius). However, there was still one major problem — Karina was just 4 years old.

a-little-knowledge-is-dangerous
Could be Russian Fake news, but I hope not:
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2721673/The-real-Mowgli-Russian-girl-survives-11-days-nights-lost-Siberian-wolf-bear-infested-wilderness.html

It'll be interesting to see how its composition will compare to VICEX with its 1.45 ER.

FYI: A filing from AdvisorShares outlines the firm’s plans to launch an actively managed ETF that will target companies involved in the tobacco, alcoholic beverage or marijuana industries. The AdvisorShares VICE ETF (ACT) is slated to list on the NYSE Arca and come with an expense ratio of 0.75%.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/advisorshares-plans-vice-etf

As far as the CD - ZEOIX comparison, ZEOIX has averaged about 3% return over the last 5 years, 2.8% over the last 3. You can now get a CD through Goldman Sachs Bank at 2.4%. Personally, if you are working outside a brokerage, I would ladder 5 year CDs as opposed to owning ZEOIX, but to each their own.

FYI: U.S. stocks were setting up for a slight pullback Friday, putting weekly gains for the S&P and Dow average in jeopardy, as traders assessed the latest developments in an ongoing investigation into Russia’s interference in the U.S. presidential election last year.
Regards,
Ted
U.S.: (MarketWatch)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/weekly-win-for-us-stocks-in-jeopardy-as-russia-probe-moves-closer-to-trump-2017-11-17/print
U.S.: (IBD)
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/the-new-growth-stocks-are-wal-mart-cisco-gm-sp-500-futures/
U.S.: (CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/us-stock-futures-earnings-data-tax-on-the-agenda.html
Asia-Europe-U.S.: (Bloomberg)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-16/stocks-in-asia-to-climb-in-end-to-tumultuous-week-markets-wrap
Europe: (MarketWatch)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-stumble-on-company-news-broker-downgrades-2017-11-17/print
Europe: (Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/world-stocks-claw-back-losses-but-set-for-second-weekly-fall-idUSKBN1DH02Y
Europe: (CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/european-markets-earnings-data-draghi-speech.html
Asia: MarketWatch)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nikkei-rallies-looks-to-notch-10th-straight-weekly-gain-2017-11-16/print
Asia: (Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-stocks-close/nikkei-rises-to-1-week-high-but-breaks-9-week-winning-streak-idUSL3N1NN2CP
Asia: (CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/16/asia-markets-global-equities-tax-reform-oil-prices-in--focus.html
Current Futures: Mixed
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

I see pluses and minuses for the fund. I looked at it a couple years ago in my IRA and decided it wasn't worth the cost, high exp. ratio and TF at Schwab. If you are using it as a "superior mattress fund" outside a brokerage, wouldn't buying a 5 year CD be even more comfy thean that mattress fund? CD's make about the same yearly return and (IM<HO) CD's have no place to go but up. HY bonds, even very short term, you can't guarantee the same. In fact down is more likely.
You won't get very good CD or money market rates at a brokerage, so if that's the case ZEOIX may be a good option. But if you are talking money that has more options, money that you want to stash in a safe place, I wouldn't go there. I'd start looking at CD's.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1282693/000089418917006085/baird-lrgcap_497e.htm
497 1 baird-lrgcap_497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
Rule 497(e)
1940 Act File No. 811-09997
1933 Act Registration No. 333-40128
BAIRD FUNDS, INC.
Supplement to Prospectus dated May 1, 2017
and Summary Prospectus dated May 1, 2017
As Previously Supplemented September 29, 2017
Baird LargeCap Fund
(Investor Class: BHGSX)
(Institutional Class: BHGIX)
The Board of Directors of Baird Funds, Inc. (the “Company”), based upon the recommendation of Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated (“Baird”), the investment adviser to the Baird LargeCap Fund (the “Fund”), has determined to close and liquidate the Fund. The Board has concluded that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Company effective as of the close of business on or about December 28, 2017 (the “liquidation date”). As previously announced, Baird and L2 Asset Management, LLC (“L2”), the Fund’s subadviser, have mutually agreed to terminate the Sub-Advisory Agreement between Baird and L2 and the Fund was closed to new purchases and incoming exchanges effective after market close on October 4, 2017 (except purchases made by existing accounts of current shareholders of the Fund and purchases made through the automatic reinvestment of Fund distributions).
The Board has approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) that determines the manner in which the Fund will be liquidated. Although the Fund is closed to most new purchases, you may continue to redeem your shares of the Fund as provided in the Fund’s Prospectus.
The Fund’s portfolio managers will likely increase the Fund’s assets held in cash and cash equivalents in order to prepare for the orderly liquidation of the Fund. As a result, the Fund is expected to deviate from its stated investment objective, policies and strategies. All remaining assets held by the Fund will be liquidated as of the close of business no later than December 22, 2017. Baird will bear all expenses of the liquidation to the extent such expenses are not part of the Fund’s customary fees and operating expenses.
Pursuant to the Plan, shareholders who have not exchanged or redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to the liquidation date will have their shares redeemed in cash and will receive one or more payments representing the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the liquidation date, subject to any required withholdings. Shareholders (other than tax-qualified plans or tax-exempt accounts) will recognize gain or loss for federal income tax purposes on the redemption of their Fund shares in the liquidation. In addition, the Fund and its shareholders will bear the transaction costs and tax consequences associated with the disposition of the Fund’s portfolio holdings prior to the liquidation date. The Fund expects to make a distribution of net capital gains and net investment income, if any, on December 26, 2017, with a final distribution of the proceeds from the liquidation of the Fund to be made promptly following the liquidation date. Shareholders should consult their tax adviser for further information about federal, state and local tax consequences relative to their specific situation.
Important Information for Retirement Plan Investors
If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax adviser regarding the consequences of redeeming Fund shares. If you hold your Fund shares through a tax-deferred retirement account, you should consult with your tax adviser or account custodian to determine how you may reinvest your redemption proceeds on a tax-deferred basis. If you will receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA that is terminating as a result of the liquidation of the Fund, you must either roll the proceeds into another IRA within 60 days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year, if applicable, or request the distribution be made directly to another IRA or eligible retirement plan. Please note you can make only one tax-free rollover of a distribution you receive from an IRA to another (or the same) IRA in any 12-month period, regardless of the number of IRAs you own. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) custodian account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you must roll the distribution into an eligible retirement plan within 60 days in order to avoid disqualification of the plan and inclusion of the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you are the trustee of a qualified retirement plan or the custodian of a 403(b)(7) custodian account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you may reinvest the proceeds in any way permitted by its governing instrument.
This Supplement should be retained with your Prospectus for future reference.
The date of this Prospectus Supplement is November 16, 2017.

The "technicalities" concern owning just one fund. By hypothesis, one would have to divest of other investments prior to going on that "three hour tour". So an investor would be stuck with lots of cash (as well as holding that fund) if the fund were presently (hard-) closed.
The possibility that the selected fund might close in the future while one is on that island is of no import, because even hard closed funds allow reinvestment of dividends. Thus a purported advantage of passive investments (that they don't close) isn't real.
With that in mind, would you reconsider your newly stated preference for passive investments? Also, what does "equity instrument" mean? Does it include ETNs, individual securities, perhaps even perps, or just mutual funds?
I agree with the "global equity" aspect, and stated so previously. I didn't suggest a fund because (with a cursory look) I didn't see one that particularly excited me. The usual suspects all seem to be showing signs of bloat, and few others stand out (to me).
FLPSX has been suggested - it's virtually a global fund anyway (50/40 US/foreign). But it is also huge (Tillinghast manages other funds as well in a similar style) and has management risk (Tillinghast is 59, and Fidelity started adding comanagers six years ago). I'd also prefer something with more EM exposure. DODWX is better with EM exposure, but is lacking in small (or even midcap) exposure.

FYI: It looks like all of the negative talk from some high profile investors in recent days has made its way into the heads of individual investors, causing them to turn increasingly bearish on equities. According to this week’s sentiment survey from AAII, bullish sentiment crashed from 45.1% down to 29.35%. That’s the largest one-week decline since April 2013! With bullish sentiment now sporting a 20-handle, it’s also safe to say that the streak of sub 50% readings that has been in place for 150 straight weeks now won’t be broken anytime soon.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bullish-sentiment-crashes-2/

FYI: (The Linkster has always been a fan of this San Francisco treat.) (Speaking of funds to hold 10-15 years, how about DODGX and DODFX.)
Dodge & Cox sets a high bar for the asset-management industry. Its many investor-friendly attributes continue to earn the firm a Positive Parent Pillar rating.
Regards,
Ted
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=836682

On Tuesday November 14, the number of NYSE stocks setting new 52-week lows surged above the number of stocks setting new highs, with both figures representing more than 3% of total issues traded. This “leadership reversal” joins the deterioration in our own measures of market internals last week, as well as ongoing dispersion in market breadth and participation. As noted in the chart below, this couples a “Hindenburg” with a “Titanic,” and is actually the first time since July 2007 that we’ve seen this particular combination of internal deterioration.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/observations/obs171114/

@slick,
Maybe you know this, but you can actually buy TF funds at Fidelity by setting up an automatic investment (this usually has to be at least the day after you enter the trade, and can’t be a “sell a fund and use the proceeds to buy another” type transaction), once you own said fund. This drops transaction fees of “automatic investments” to $5.
Set the auto investment to occur monthly, as an example, and once the buy executes, you cancel the auto investment and you have just added to VWINX for $5 :)
Let me know if this doesn’t make sense, please.

Added to Target (TGT) on the 10% beatdown today. I guess Black Friday is coming earlier and earlier.

@Mark, I see holiday shopping forecasts are down which caused the Target drop. Pretty big 1 day drop.
I have a different approach to consumers buying habits. I've been watching FDX for a little while hoping it's price comes down some. My thought and what I've read is this is a play on internet shopping, pretty much riding the Amazon trend without investing in the high valuations Amazon has now. FedEx also dropped today (2.5%) with the holiday shopping forecast but not as much as TGT. FDX has to drop another 9% for my limit order to kick in.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890540/000113542817001052/frost-497.txt
TYPE>497
1
frost-497.txt
THE ADVISORS' INNER CIRCLE FUND II (THE "TRUST")
FROST CONSERVATIVE ALLOCATION FUND
FROST MODERATE ALLOCATION FUND
FROST AGGRESSIVE ALLOCATION FUND (THE "FUNDS")
SUPPLEMENT DATED NOVEMBER 15, 2017 TO THE
INSTITUTIONAL CLASS SHARES PROSPECTUS AND THE INVESTOR CLASS SHARES PROSPECTUS,
EACH DATED NOVEMBER 28, 2016, AS SUPPLEMENTED NOVEMBER 29, 2016, FEBRUARY 6,
2017, MARCH 8, 2017, JUNE 7, 2017 AND AUGUST 31, 2017 (THE "PROSPECTUSES") AND
THE STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, DATED NOVEMBER 28, 2016, AS
SUPPLEMENTED NOVEMBER 29, 2016, FEBRUARY 6, 2017, MARCH 8, 2017, JUNE 7, 2017
AND AUGUST 31, 2017 (THE "SAI")
THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED
IN THE PROSPECTUSES AND SAI, AND SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
PROSPECTUSES AND SAI.
The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Frost Investment
Advisors, LLC (the "Adviser"), the investment adviser of the Funds, has approved
a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of each Fund's assets and
the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund's shareholders. In
connection therewith, the Funds are closed to new investments. The Funds are
expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about December 22, 2017 (the
"Liquidation Date").
Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in
the manner described in the "How to Redeem Fund Shares" section of each
Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares
prior to the Liquidation Date, the Funds will distribute to each such
shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash
distribution equal in value to the shareholder's interest in the net assets of
the Funds as of the Liquidation Date.
In anticipation of the liquidation of the Funds, the Adviser may manage each
Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by
holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result,
during this time, all or a portion of each Fund may not be invested in a manner
consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund
from achieving its investment objective.
The liquidation distribution amounts will include any accrued income and
capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will
generally be a taxable event. You should consult your personal tax advisor
concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in a Fund on
the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund.
However, the net asset value of each Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect
costs of liquidating the Fund.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
FIA-SK-045-0100