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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Discussion with a Portfolio Manager
    Thanks for posting those fees assessed by the brokerages. I've dug them up from time to time (each time they seem to be a smidgen higher than the last). I figure that the only way NTF funds can pay those shelf space fees are:
    a) having direct investors who subsidize platform investors (so that the blended cost to the fund is 0.25% or less), or
    b) adding some other fee (e.g. adding to management fee and then management pays the shortfall from the 12b-1 fee, or adding an administrative fee, ...) or
    c) you're a major fund family that has negotiated a lower fee with one or more brokerages
  • Morningstar Mirage
    @sma3, what does this mean:
    There is a little consistency Five star funds averaged 3 stars in 10 years, 4 stars ave 2.8 three stars 2.5 and two stars 2.2
    It is not clear to me what you are saying.
    I just checked my Schwab account, and I have nothing but 4 and 5 star funds. Should I be worried? Should I sell FMIJX, PONDX, GTLOX, SGENX or DSENX?
  • Morningstar Mirage
    I could not access the article, but I am curious about where the new 5 star funds come from. How many come from new funds turning 3 years old? From the stats furnished by @sma3, it looks like the old funds did worse (on average) after 10 years. The only exception is the 2* funds went up to 2.2* after 10 years. Do these stats factor in suvivorship bias? I would deduce that newer funds are the way to go, before they turn 3.
  • Best HSA Provider for Investing HSA Money
    Fortunately I have the cash to be able to cover medical expenses, so I treat HSAs as super duper Roth IRAs. Money checks in, but it doesn't check out. (As you do, I also keep track of medical expenses so that I will, some years down the road, be able to pull all the money out tax-free.)
    That said, I've worked with a few different HSAs. One way or another, with nearly all HSAs you're going to wind up paying at least $25 or so per year to invest. That could come from a trading requirement (or inactivity fees if you don't trade), a bank account or an investing account annual fee, etc.
    The Bruce Fund seems to be an exception, but its offerings are, shall we say, not copious? Saturna has a $25 inactivity fee if you don't have a transaction each calendar year (though that drops to $12.50 if all you hold are mutual funds, and they do offer NTF funds including some that are popular here, such as DSENX).
    One would like to avoid tying up money on the bank side (paying peanuts), and invest all the money - at least if you use the HSA as I do, as a supercharged IRA. Keeping cash on the bank side to avoid the annual fees seems like a losing proposition over the long term.
    You'll find my thoughts on the three HSA mentioned in the cited article as a comment there: https://thefinancebuff.com/best-hsa-provider-for-investing-hsa-money.html#comment-21591
    Someone there just posted about a new HSA administrator, Lively ($30/year to invest):
    https://thefinancebuff.com/best-hsa-provider-for-investing-hsa-money.html#comment-21595
    Here's the TDA commission and fee schedule for that account (short term trading on NTF funds is defined as 90 days, and just $25 for TF funds):
    https://www.tdameritrade.com/retail-en_us/resources/pdf/SDPS1009.pdf
    Lively is a VC backed startup that just started providing an investment option a month ago. Looks very good, assuming it will survive in this form. $30 fee is in the right ballpark, and has no min balance requirement to start investing or to keep on the bank side.
    Regarding Optum Bank (a subsidiary of United Health) - here's an old fee schedule, but it seems consistent with bee's figures. The eAccess account does charge $1/mo ($12/yr), but that's on the bank side, and waived with balances above $500. You need (or at least needed at the time of the fee schedule cited) to keep at least $2K on the bank side, and you still paid $3/mo ($36/yr) extra to invest.
    In case you're having problems with their fund list (I am), here's a simple pdf from January 2017:
  • Did anyone get burned in July with PZC?
    Mark: The date on the report (that included the stellar assessments of the fund) was dated just 2 days before the announcement of the dividend drop.
    Maurice: The market price drop you refer to was AFTER Pimco lowered their dividend BY 25%. OF COURSE the market price would drop then. I'm not sure I would call that volatility; it's a market correction. But shouldn't internal fundamentals to the fund and it's profitability determine what the fund should pay out, and let market factors adjust what the market price should be?
    Why drop a dividend by such a large percentage all in one swoop, when published profit are good? Why not do it gradually, if Pimco was anticipating rising interest rates, or what ever their concerns were? PIMCO had to realize investors in PZC would lose BOTH market value and 25% of that income almost instantly.
  • Morningstar Mirage
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-morningstar-mirage-1508946687
    (hope it will open for non subscribers)
    'A Wall Street Journal analysis of Morningstar mutual-fund ratings over 14 years found that top-rated funds drew the vast majority of investor dollars, but most didn’t continue performing at that level. Morningstar said it has never billed its ratings as predictive and they should be a starting point for investors selecting funds.
    "Of funds awarded a coveted five-star overall rating, only 12% did well enough over the next five years to earn a top rating for that period; 10% performed so poorly they were branded with a rock-bottom one-star rating."
    There is a little consistency Five star funds averaged 3 stars in 10 years, 4 stars ave 2.8 three stars 2.5 and two stars 2.2
    Thank god there is no "Snowball mirage" !
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder October 2017
    @carew388 "Two ntf alternatives to GABCX are MERFX ARBFX."
    I looked at all three, having owned MERFX for a long time. GABCX is not avaliable for new accounts at either Fido, Schwab or Vanguard ( I can't stand Mario anyway so I would have to hold my nose) The other two are similar but ARBFX has a smaller asset base and has done a little better long term. Don't expect rocketships but it has produced a relatively modest return without a lot of downside. They do better in years when there is a lot of merger activity
    I have to be put into the bearish camp, near retirement and more worried about "the return of my capital than the return on my capital". I have left my long term funds alone but have ratcheted down equity exposure over the year to about 30% to 35% and emphasizing short duration bonds
  • Discussion with a Portfolio Manager
    @PBKCM If I understand correctly, which I may not, your fund uses technical analysis to decide risk on / risk off, then, as of last year (maybe due to your arrival?), quantitative analysis to choose what to invest in. Held up very well in 2008-2009 (though any new fund had an advantage then, since it would have started off with cash), not so well in 2011, and overall higher returns and higher volatility compared to peers. Perfectly respectable, reasonably priced for this kind of fund, and makes sense that in a bull market it would have 5 stars.
    I was going to ask how you're positioned, but I see you answered that elsewhere: risk on.
    I guess I'd like to know how you're confident that you can do the risk-on/risk-off better than peers, since effective market timing is kind of the holy grail of investing: everyone is looking for it, but it may not exist.
    Hi @expatsp
    I can't speak with any specificity how the firm approached management before I arrived. Marty's father Lane Kerns started the firm in 1996. Marty joined the firm about 10 years ago after practicing law for 15 years. In August 2008, they launched the mutual fund.
    Marty's Dad retired in 2014 shortly before I started with the firm. Initially, I was hired to build out quantitative SMA strategies and help refine the firm's hedging process (Risk On / Risk Off process). As of January 31, 2016, Marty asked me to become a PM on the fund. As described on the website, we now use those SMAs and hedging process in managing the fund.
    Marty and I teamed up on the mutual fund as the market was making a major bottom, so we have not had to deal with any serious corrections yet. Time will tell whether we add alpha with our hedging process. Personally, I believe the next bear market will be more severe than the 2015-16 "bear market." If so, the potential for alpha would appear to exist.
  • Best HSA Provider for Investing HSA Money
    @MikeM,
    I began contributing individually to an H.S.A (I'm retired & PT self employed) a few year ago. My first contribution was a one time rollover from my SD IRA account to the Bruce Fund (BRUFX). Its historical returns are pretty good:
    image
    Anyone interested can view the fund here:
    M* link to BRUFX-
    morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/BRUFX/quote.html
    As I have mentioned in other posts the Bruce Fund is a old school experience using snail mail for contributions and withdrawals, but the fund does have a basic online account service for viewing your account and downloading forms. I use Bill Pay at my bank which has allowed me to make monthly contributions electronically so I do not have a problem there and I infrequently make withdrawal.
    I instead, keep track of my medically eligible expenses on a spreadsheet, pay for these costs out of pocket during the year and then decide at the end of the year whether I need to make a withdrawal from my H.S.A to reimburse these expenses. If not, I keep these records for the next year. H.S.A can roll eligible reimbursements into the future which is not the case with other health savings plans.
    Anyway, to your question (I hadn't forgot) Bruce Fund does not offer some other features that other H.S.A provider do such as an investment platform and a debit/savings account. So no debit card, no cash account. Every dollar is fully invested in the Bruce Fund and only the Bruce Fund. From the articles I attached i would consider Optum Bank which seem to have a $1/month fee (eaccess account) and offers some mutual funds on its investment platform that interest me.
    https://optumbank.com/
    Mutual Fund offerings through Optum Bank (need Adobe Flash to view):
    https://optumbank.com/individuals-families/how-to-invest-with-hsas/mutual-funds.html
    Again, fees and transaction costs are what I have been trying to avoid. Bruce charges $15 service fee and it fund ER. No transaction costs. I may roll over a portion of my Bruce H.S.A to Optum (you are not limited to how many providers you have H.S.A with) and see how that goes. Optum seems to work with employers who offer H.S.A to their employees, but individuals can hold accounts there as well. Finally, many Credit Unions offer the H.S.A (savings/debit accounts). So I may approach a local credit union and combine that with my Bruce H.S.A.
    Hope that helps and it would be great to hear form others who may have other H.S.A experiences.
  • Discussion with a Portfolio Manager
    @PBKCM If I understand correctly, which I may not, your fund uses technical analysis to decide risk on / risk off, then, as of last year (maybe due to your arrival?), quantitative analysis to choose what to invest in. Held up very well in 2008-2009 (though any new fund had an advantage then, since it would have started off with cash), not so well in 2011, and overall higher returns and higher volatility compared to peers. Perfectly respectable, reasonably priced for this kind of fund, and makes sense that in a bull market it would have 5 stars.
    I was going to ask how you're positioned, but I see you answered that elsewhere: risk on.
    I guess I'd like to know how you're confident that you can do the risk-on/risk-off better than peers, since effective market timing is kind of the holy grail of investing: everyone is looking for it, but it may not exist.
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder October 2017
    If gold drops further I’d put a toe back in the water. Sold OPGSX @$18 couple months ago. Has dropped to around $16.50 today. I’m really concerned about the messages coming out of Washington. Corker, McCain, Flake and many former military & civilian leaders have been really unloading. (Also former Presidents of both parties.) Regardless of your affiliation, this kind of turmoil can’t bode well for the nation or the stock market.
    https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2017-10-24/trump-plans-lunch-with-gop-senators-as-focus-turns-to-taxes
  • Discussion with a Portfolio Manager
    OK. The 64K question for me is how much of this fund or Long/Short funds should be in an average Joe Tentpeg investor's Asset Allocation. 5-10-20%? What is a meaningful amount that will meaningfully dampen volatility and maybe contribute to the portfolio's return. Is it reasonable to add to a retiree's portfolio?
  • Did anyone get burned in July with PZC?
    2 days before PIMCO dropped their Calif Muni Fund lll's dividend by a Whopping 25%, their Semiannual report said everything was rosy. The report bragged exposure to revenue, healthcare & tobacco-settlement bonds OUTPERFORMED the muni markets, with good maturity durations all contributing to performance. TWENTY FIVE PERCENT. In one day! Isn't that deceptive marketing?
  • Discussion with a Portfolio Manager
    @bee How about playing CLUE ?
    Regards,
    Ted :)
  • Discussion with a Portfolio Manager
    @PBKCM, O.K. let's narrow this down by deductive reasoning.
    According to my screener (Morningstar Screener) It is 1 of nearly 15,0000 funds.
    My first question...What is your fund's morning star rating (1-5*)?
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder October 2017
    Just watching paint dry and reading over the many comments. Thought I’d attempt to gain a better market perspective by grouping a few of the responses. Apologies in advance for the likely inaccuracies and/or omissions. Not scientific. Feel welcome to fill-in the blanks. Thanks to the Pudd for the thread.
    Bullish Sentiment
    “I have been DCA into PRGTX - TRP Global Technology since it was a new fund and the price has doubled since then. Hopefully the fund continues to run wild” ...Jafink63
    “Ah, yes....new funds. They are great. Big up side potential as you get the P.M.'s. Best picks with all the money coming in. Yep, been there done that. Looks like you hit a homer, big guy! If I were you, I'd ride on. Tech is only going to get bigger as time rolls on.” Puddnhead
    “On the equity front: May add a tad to certain REITS (VTR). Possibly also small positions in GE & GIS (TBD). Just re-entered small position in AMZN and a position in UTG on the price-weakness surrounding the rights-offering. Bought a small, starter position GBTC (the bitcoin trust) --as a pure speculation.” Edmond
    -
    Bearish Sentiment
    “In a bit of good fortune, the nice little run-up has bumped two of my funds in the IRA to hit the dollar threshold for a haircut... I'm happy to take some profits off the table before that decision is announced”. PressumUP
    “I remain in the cash build mode within my mutual fund portfolio due to a richly priced market.
    ... More pondering to do while I await the next pullback.” Old Skeet
    “I remain invested, but at the high end of my allowable cash position.” hank
    “With the bull ongoing, am thinking of selling a little even in roth accounts and letting it sit as cash, or in, like, GABCX”. davidrmoran
    “I'm looking to sell some equities & take some risk off the table too”. expatsp
    ”... lowering equity exposure while allowing room to run still”. jlev
    “The stock market is historically overpriced, and becoming more so by the day.”
    David Snowball - October 1, 2017 Commentary https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2017/10/
    “I have to be put into the bearish camp, near retirement and more worried about "the return of my capital than the return on my capital". I have left my long term funds alone but have ratcheted down equity exposure over the year to about 30% to 35% and emphasizing short duration bonds.” sma3
    Undetermined
    “Opened a small position in TUHYX ...” carew388
  • Should You Shoot For Higher Returns By Investing Outside Your 401(k)?

    I understand your argument with (b), but (a)? If your income is large enough to be able to max out contributions to your 401(k) and IRA ($24k next year), you really shouldn't be too worried about money.
    IRA contributions are still 5500/6500 and in my view are generally useless compared to the 18K+ in the 40X accounts....it should be a similar amount, in my opinion. What I meant to say was that sure, if you are able to max out your 40X good for you -- but that shouldn't mean that one ignores investing more $$$ in a taxable account anyway if they're able to.
  • Larry Swedroe: Why Do Hedge Funds Exist?
    FYI: Hedge funds entered 2017 coming off their eighth-straight year of trailing U.S. stocks (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) by significant margins.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-why-do-hedge-funds-exist
  • John Waggoner: Best Performing Funds Since '87 Crash
    boy, the args against being in SP500 are weak, aren't they
  • anyone have thoughts about PDI slumping?
    A different take on the mini-selloff, focusing on PCI: the thesis is that slight ticks down in the rate of NAV appreciation were the trigger. (Could apply to most Pimco CEFs.) The author traces the phenom back a few months.
    Imho, it's a little hard to believe all the sellers noticed the slight, short-term leveling off of NAV gains, which were easy to miss and still beat the distribution rate; maybe a few got the ball rolling and general selling followed (?).
    Hat tip to Aalan on M* for the link.