Hi Guys,
I was remiss when I failed to reference a typical Monte Carlo simulator that is freely available on the Internet. Sorry about that. Here is my correction:
https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/VGApp/pe/pubeducation/calculators/RetirementNestEggCalc.jsf
This Vanguard Monte Carlo calculator is not necessarily the most flexible tool, but it is fast and easy to use. Many other simulators are also easily accessed. Please give them a try. For example, calculate the difference in portfolio survival for a 4% drawdown and compare it to a 5% drawdown; a huge difference.
Best Wishes

Hi Guys,
The 4% retirement rule is more than just a random percentage selected as a starting point when making that critical retirement date. It is based on multiple studies that included using Monte Carlo analyses that explored thousands of income scenarios. I know because I did not initially trust that key percentage so I did my own Monte Carlo analyses when making my own retirement decision. Those independent calculations generated very high portfolio and income survival likelihoods for the 4% drawdown strategy.
Of course, any calculation output, regardless of its complexity, is directly dependent upon the input values. I explored a range of many reasonable performance likelihoods. As expected, survival probabilities changed. But all my analyses projected comfortable income survival rates when withdrawals were centered on the 4% annual rate. At even a 5% drawdown rate, portfolio survival rates are still high, but the degradation in survival probabilities were impacted to a level that compromised my comfort level.
There are no perfect one size fits all correct drawdown rule, but the 4% target goal is not a bad point of departure. For everyone, a final number is dependent on special circumstances that include a retiree's discipline to stay with a plan, yet be flexible enough to make moderate adjustments if circumstances change. Circumstances will most likely change so a retiree must always remain alert.
Good luck to anyone making the retirement decision soon,
Best Wshes

FYI: Some experts argue for withdrawal strategies tied to changing conditions.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-4-retirement-rule-is-just-a-starting-point-1536245877?mod=article_inline

this is smart
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-dangerous-myth-we-still-believe-about-the-lehman-brothers-bust/2018/09/09/5a2f8a9c-b2bc-11e8-9a6a-565d92a3585d_story.html

@slick et al
A one year chart for VWO reference.
One will see where the 50 and 100 day moving averages have traveled below the 200 day moving average; and still moving down.

"which is more than emerging markets right now "
Tell me. At least some of my cash is earning 2.5% on 14 month CDs. I try to ignore our EM equities.

@slick: I would stay away from the vast majority of emerging markets for the foreseeable future. Here is some info for your consideration regarding EM's.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20180713/FREE/180719955/emerging-markets-have-yet-to-reach-bottom

There will be better buying opportunities down the road. Time like this is about getting paid and not killed. It is hard to imagine how $200+265 billion tariffs with China will end well.

FYI: While technology stocks tend to make the flashiest headlines, the health-care sector remains one of the most consistent outperformers.
The exchange traded funds have more than tripled the returns of the S&P 500 this year.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fidelity.com/insights/investing-ideas/health-care-etfs-to-consider

Excellent article and research, Lewis. It made me look at Large Growth PROVX, one that has been mentioned here recently, and fits your criteria well.
From M* as of 9/7:
2008 Total Return -21.00
1YR Total Return 25.33
1 YR Category Return 26
10 YR Total Return 10.79
10 YR Category Return 64
5 YR Downside Capture Ratio (as of 8/31) 65.53

FYI: The End of Summer Hangover. Unless you are a stay at home parent with kids, the end of Labor Day weekend, when schools are back in session and summer starts to wind down is always a tough time of year. After a summer of nice weather, swimming, hiking, outdoor sports, and hopefully even a vacation, Tuesday morning after the three day Labor Day weekend is one of the tougher days of the year for a lot of people. This year was no exception, and it was reflected in the performance of US and global equity markets.
Take a look at the chart below, for six straight trading days now, the S&P 500 had a lower intraday high and lower intraday low than the prior day’s levels. That type of consistent selling with zero in the way of buying doesn’t happen very often. To find the most recent occurrence, you have to go all the way back to May 2012, and since 1982, it has only occurred eight other times.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/bespoke-report/buyers_strike090718/

Old_Skeet's Twelve Month Income Area Game Plan
When the US 10 Yr gets to a yield of 3.0% I may do a little buying in my income sleeve. Currently, my fixed income sleeve is at about 90% of its targeted allocation while my hybrid income sleeve is at 100% of its targeted allocation. This puts my income area, within my portfolio, at about 97% of its targeted allocation as the hybrid income sleeve is twice the size of the fixed income sleeve. My goal is to have my income area towards full allocation by yearend should interest rates be at 3% or greater. I am pretty much still with my cash build mode as my money market fund (year-to-date) is currently out performing a good number of my fixed income funds. As interest rates continue to rise so does its yield. In addition, I'm thinking that the FOMC will raise interest rates (in steps) a full percent over the next twelve months, or so, putting the US 10 Yr at a yield of about four percent. And, with the Fed raising rates most existing bonds will decline in value to compete with the higher yield of newly issued bonds. Thus, I am also striving at keeping my average bond duration back of three years.
The rolling 12 month total return on my fixed income sleeve is about 1.9% while on my hybrid income sleeve it is about 4.5%. And, for the income area (as a whole) its average total return is better than 3.6% which is also about it's average yield. With this, I have been maintaining my income area's valuation while also enjoying the yield benefit as there has been no loss to principal. In looking back over a five year period I've grown principal by a couple percent per year plus the enjoyment of the income.

FYI: For many investors, 2008 must seem like ancient history, but for those who recall that terrible year it was a nightmare. Stocks in the S&P 500 fell 37% and nothing but Treasury bonds was safe. Now, almost 10 years into the second-longest bull market in history, it may be time to prepare for the next downturn. That doesn’t mean you should sell your stocks, but that it’s worth shifting to more defensive equity funds.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-funds-with-brakes-and-airbags-1536357068?mod=hp_RTA

FYI: U.S. stocks had a weekly loss with all benchmarks lower Friday after President Donald Trump said the U.S. had tariffs ready to go on another $267 billion in Chinese goods, on top of tariffs on $200 billion in goods the administration is now preparing.
Regards,
Ted
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/asian-stocks-face-more-losses-treasuries-climb-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-07/your-evening-briefing
Barron's After The Bell:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-mark-trump-tariffs-1536355638
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-pause-ahead-of-jobs-report-1536306717
Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-drops-after-trump-threatens-further-china-tariffs-idUSKCN1LN1F2
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stocks-close-lower-leading-stocks-outperform/
MarketWatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-point-to-lower-open-after-jobs-report-sp-500-could-have-4th-down-day-2018-09-07/print
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/us-markets-jobs-report-and-data-in-focus.html
Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-shares-suffer-worst-week-since-march-on-trade-woes-idUSKCN1LN0SK
Asia:
https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-stocks-close/nikkei-continues-slide-into-6th-session-on-trade-worries-chip-equipment-makers-dive-idUSL3N1VT2ZS
Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/bonds-and-fixed-income-nonfarm-payrolls-in-focus.html
Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/forex-markets-dollar-yen-us-japan-trade-in-focus.html
Oil:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/oil-markets-us-crude-inventories-diesel-gasoline-in-focus.html
Gold
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/gold-markets-dollar-yen-trade-in-focus.html
WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
http://markets.wsj.com/us
Major ETFs % Change:
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor
SPDR's Sector Tracker:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
Current Futures: Negative
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

FYI: Last week, we reported that the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) was on a tear—and it's showing no signs of slowing down.
Over the past month, MJ has surged 31%, making it the best-performing ETF in the U.S by far. In comparison, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is only up 2% over the same period:
Regards,
Ted
https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/etf-week-marijuana-etfs-meteoric-rise
Bloomberg Article On MJ:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-07/canadian-weed-etf-passes-billion-dollar-mark-as-pot-stocks-surge

There are so many being mentioned, will be hard to choose just one. I have ARTGX and IWIRX which have been mentioned each for over 5 years, happy with both, but I also added GSIHX this year. New shop, with a manager that has an excellent reputation from Virtus, which I held for a long time. He left and formed the GQG Partners. Worth a look. If this is your only exposure to foreign , I would likely go with one of Vanguard's funds and later spread out to others as money and risk permit you.

RPGAX

(RPGAX) Not global "equity"

I agree with both of you. T. Rowe classifies RPGAX as an "allocation fund". They offer a great many diverse funds under that category - and I've owned a few, including RPGAX which I purchased almost at inception.
But one could certainly view it as a very conservative global fund. I'm not sure what @ep1 is really looking for, or what his/her needs and expectations are. But, possibly he's interested in something with global exposure that won't give too wild a ride. As badly as the U.S. domestic funds performed in '07-'09, the global and international funds did about 10% worse on average - many falling more than 50% peak to bottom.
Here's Fidelity's take on the terms "global" and "international: "... international stock funds primarily invest in companies outside of the U.S. Global stock funds have the ability to search for investments in both U.S. and non-U.S. companies". https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/mutual-funds/what-are-international-global-stock-funds
That said, the two terms are often used interchangeably by many here (and probably in the press). My motto is to read the annual and semi-annual fund reports and make your determination based on what the fund typically invests in. I'm not recommending RPGAX (perhaps best described as a "balanced fund with international and domestic exposure") because it doesn't fit the strict definition of global fund. But, I wouldn't be too hard on @Crash for throwing it out there for consideration.
Maybe @ep1 would clarify what his/her purpose is in seeking out a global fund. Does he own another one that has not met expectations? Is he a new investor and very young individual seeking maximum growth potential over a 30-40 year time horizon? Is he frightened by the U.S. markets for some reason and seeking to invest outside the U.S.? Or, perhaps, is he seeking advise to pass on to a family member? (These things do matter.)

.....finance timelines below.
2007 Financial Markets Timeline

2008 Financial Markets Timeline
2009 Financial Markets Timeline
I may add a bit more; but have other appointments today, in my timeline.
Take care,
Catch

@johnN: If you keep stepping on my toes, I'm going to need to buy a pair with steel toes. I get the same Tom Madell E-Mail that you do, and could have linked his monthly letter before you but as a courtesy to you I didn't. Let's knock ii off.
Regards,
Ted :(
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/43356/vanguard-introduces-low-cost-total-world-bond-etf-bndw#latest

Not knowing what type of global fund you seek or how much you plan to invest below is a list of funds with a global perspective that I own. I have listed them by sleeve and by the area where the sleeve is held within my portfolio. A good number of these funds are A share class funds; however, many of them also have other share classes available for purchase. Especially, The American Funds which can be bought for as little as $250.00 for an opening position while others will require up to a minimum of $5,000.00. I'm thinking you'd find it of good interest to Xray each one of them or at least review their Morningstar fund report. In this way you can view how each is positioned, the type of assets are held, along with their asset allocations plus other details. Some generate income while some others are geared towards growth.
Global Equity, G&I Area: CWGIX, DEQAX & EADIX
Global Hybrid, G&I Area: CAIBX, PMAIX & TIBAX
Global Growth, Growth Area: ANWPX, FWAFX, NEWFX & SMCWX
Theme & Specialty, Growth Area: LPEFX, PCLAX & PGUAX