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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Dodge and Cox
    More observations:
    1. For 5 years DODFX is rated at 75-89 in its category.
    DODGX lags the SP500 for 1-3-5-10-15 years which is a blended index not growth or value. But Wait...DODGX also lags VTV(value ETF) for 1-3-5-10-15 years
    2. If you read DODGX strategy (link)
    Stocks — The Fund typically invests in companies that, in Dodge & Cox’s opinion, appear to be temporarily undervalued by the stock market but have a favorable outlook for long-term growth.
    It's similar to PRWCX
    "invests primarily in the common stocks of established U.S companies believed to have above-average potential for capital growth."
    The value approach carries a risk that the market will not recognize a security’s intrinsic value for a long time or that a stock judged to be undervalued may actually be appropriately priced because of the fund’s fixed-income holdings or cash position, it may not keep pace in a rapidly rising market.
    PRWCX managers are excellent while D&C are not and the rest are just excuses.
  • Matthews China Small Companies MCSMX
    I invested in it a few months ago with the thought China markets are down due to trade war, before COVID-19 pandemic came to light. It is still doing good, though unusual
  • "Did you blink?" D.Snowball's April First newsletter-commentary.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2020/04/april-1-2020/#more-14103
    Excellent read imho regarding current market conditions, what to possibly expect in the near future, several funds/managers' opinion.
    Get your cash/bucket list ready / and several ideas to help out local communities/others
    Enjoy
  • Coronavirus Fiscal Fallout on U.S. Muni Issuers Worries Investors
    https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/03/us/03reuters-health-coronavirus-municipals.html
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21L37G
    /Coronavirus Fiscal Fallout on U.S. Muni Issuers Worries Investors
    By Reuters
    April 3, 2020
    CHICAGO — Investors in the U.S. municipal bond market are growing increasingly worried over the ability of states, cities and other debt issuers to weather the financial fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus./
    Article discusses covid19 nationalized shut down may cause major downturns and possible credit crunch due to limited/frozen states and local authorities lack of incomes. Muni bonds defaulting risks maybe much higher in the near future.
    I think potus/congress/house maybe working to generate more bonds /govt bailouts to alleviate these stress in the near future.
    More BAB anyone?
  • what you shoulda done, given all the chumps out there
    Adam Grossman HumbleDollar
    If there’s one company that suddenly everyone knows, it’s Zoom, the videoconferencing company. It’s a great product and the stock (ticker symbol ZM) has enjoyed strong gains this year, up 123%. But there’s another Zoom that has done even better. It’s an obscure Chinese company with no revenue that happens to be listed on the U.S. market and with a much better ticker symbol: ZOOM. As a result, this other Zoom’s stock, which in the past typically traded for about a penny a share, has shot up nearly 900% this year.
  • Old-Joe or anyone, Home page acting differently
    Hi. I'm using a MacBook Pro running the latest MacOS and the Safari browser.
    In the past when I logged into the Discussion Home Page all the new or unread posts were shown with a white background and the word 'New' was highlighted in yellow. Posts which I had read at some point but had since been updated with additional comments also contained the yellow highlighted word 'New' on a grayish background. Once I had read either "one" of these new or updated posts and returned to the discussion home page the screen refreshed itself to show the yellow highlighting gone and the gray background on read posts. It showed me posts I had read in other words.
    Now and for the past few weeks the only way I can remove the yellow highlighting from read posts and see the post with the gray background is to refresh the entire MFO discussion page. So I have found myself clicking on already read posts.
    ? Has the site changed their 1's and 0's or is this a Mac/Safari problem? TIA
  • Discussion with a Portfolio Manager
    Hi @ET91 and @MikeM
    Despite the fact that Morningstar (wrongly) moved us from Multi-Alternative to Large Blend last August, the prospectus (link located here) makes clear that the fund is "alternative" and designed to be flexible. We are not a "style-box" fund that must invest in certain types of equities at all times.
  • DSENX - another one that was good until it wasn't
    I think the Doubleline website does a good job of explaining how it works, but I wonder how many people did proper research on it.
    Proper research? @fundfun, it is pretty hard to research how a fund may perform in a bear market if it's never been in a bear market. Now we know. A lot of Doublelines info is a sales pitch. Actually the best information I've seen is in past posts here at MFO.
    CAPE is a simple concept. That is explained. The bond-derivative part is not explained well at all, so investors have nothing but performance to go by and a leap of faith. From the start this fund was great. The past couple years when value has underperformed so did this fund. Now we know it won't hold up well when bonds are selling off. Now we know.
    CAPE ytd = -24.5
    DSENX ytd = -31.1
  • When Can America Reopen From Its Coronavirus Shutdown?
    Antibody may work from article in Reuters,
    “Historically, this has worked,” said Dr. Jeffrey Henderson, associate professor of medicine and molecular microbiology at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis. “Before we had vaccines, this was used for infectious diseases like measles and diphtheria.”
    Convalescent plasma was also successfully used during the 1918 flu pandemic, he said.
    Doctors say protocols, such as dosage, are still uncertain for COVID-19 patients, but they believe the method is worth trying, at least until an effective COVID-19 vaccine or treatment is developed.
    The Mayo Clinic and other U.S. sites are conducting a clinical study. Similar trials are under way in other countries where the virus has hit and some data has begun to emerge.
    In one trial in China, levels of the virus in five seriously ill COVID-19 patients were undetectable after plasma transfusions, according to study results published last week in The Journal of the American Medical Association.
    https://reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-plasma-explain/why-u-s-hospitals-see-promise-in-plasma-from-new-coronavirus-patients-idUSKBN21M0E3
    @rono, I hear you. It is a mess from the lack of leadership from Trump while not taking this COVID-19 seriously. There are many states still resist of the lockdown and large social gathering especially those states down south.
  • Palm Valley Capital Fund (PVCMX)
    these guys reported an excellent 1st q. made 2%!
    coming out of this, this is their time to shine. of course, none of use can buy it. Mr. Snowball, can you have these guys put their fund on the major ebroker platforms?
  • The futures of the indices are up
    @lynnbolin2020, I really appreciate you for sharing your research and insight. They are invaluable in these challenging time. I couldn't agree more on the impact of COVID-19 on the market.
    Yesterday, the stock market fell 1.5%, supposedly due to an unfavorable employment report. My personal belief is the market is heavily influenced by high frequency algorithm trading in the short term. I also believe that upcoming data on the economy and COVID-19 will drive the market lower over the next few quarters. For now, I believe that it is best to be safe and wait for a better opportunity to rebalance into stocks.
    I would add that this downturn is far worse than 2008 housing crisis, and the pace of drawdown is unprecedented. In early March the market circuit breaker tripped several time in a day as the % decline was getting out of hand. In less than 7 weeks, the market has lost closed to 30%, and there is more to come as the unemployment number rapidly climbs. Until the infection spread is contained, i.e. exponential growth of infection approaches zero, the unemployment, consumer spending, and corporate earning are all in a very dire situation. I believe we are already in a recession and the earning season is upon us now.
    Stay safe and best investing. Sven
  • Dodge and Cox
    One plausible explanation of the lagging performance of D&C for the last 10 years is the value stocks invested in their funds are out style. Not only D&C, other value-oriented mutual funds companies are also lagging, most notably Oakmark. The growth stocks such as the FANNG stocks dominate and contribute to their out-sized performance in S&P 500 relative to the value-oriented stocks. In contrast, PRWCX is a growth-oriented balanced fund and the top to holdings consist of Microsoft and Google (at one point it held Amazon). David Giroux has also done a good job picking his allocation and stocks well in this environment.
  • Discussion with a Portfolio Manager
    Greetings all. Quite the market. Hope you are safe and sound.
    We've published some market commentary recently, not on our fund per se but the markets generally.
    1. March 13 (after the S&P gained 9% for the day)
    2. March 23 (after the S&P bottomed at 2,192)
    3. April 1 (the day after the S&P topped at 2,641 -- a 20% gain off the March 23 low)
  • Dodge and Cox

    VLAAX -13.8 and VALIX -24.2, ouch
    30-70 and 40-60 of the below would be worse than 50-50, obvs, did not compute, but better than the above:
    50-50 BND + CAPE = ~-10.5, same as BND + VOO
    50-50 BND + VOOG = -7.6
  • The Coronavirus Crash Reveals a Big Problem In Bond Fund Pricing
    I accessed the article by typing the article name into an incognito window. Then, I clicked on the link to the article. Then, I closed an ad asking me to subscribe. Then the article was available. Apparently Barrons isn't concerned about people occasionally accessing an article this way.
    Here are a couple more excerpts:
    The problem with the NAV being wrong for the mutual funds is that on days when the ETF’s market price trades at a discount to NAV, that means investors who bought the mutual fund essentially overpaid for its elevated NAV, while those selling received more for their sale than they should have. There is ultimately a delay, as the stale prices for the mutual fund’s bond portfolio have to adjust. Investors saw the consequences of that delay on March 13, when the Vanguard mutual fund fell 0.5% on a day when the ETF rallied 4.2%.
    In an email to Barron’s, AlphaCentric stated, “We believe the NAV of the AlphaCentric Income Opportunities fund was accurately priced each day. The price reflects the fair value of its underlying portfolio of residential mortgaged backed securities, not equities.…The AlphaCentric fund’s daily pricing was done by ICE, which is one of the largest and most respected independent pricing services.” Yet ETF experts say that such fair-valuation services employ limited data. “Only about 20% of the bond universe trades every day,” says Reggie Browne, a principal at market maker GTS with a long history developing the ETF business. “How do you go about calculating fair value for something that doesn’t trade? The ETF is priced minute by minute, not a static NAV.”
  • Dodge and Cox
    D&C have good funds but many of them are riskier and it shows at market stress such as 2008 and many times when stocks go down and 2020 is no different
    For YTD
    Allocation DODBX -23.4...PRWCX -16.2...JABAX -13.1
    Mostly US LC: DODGX -32.1....SPY -22.4
    Foreign stocks: DODFX -34.5...AFCNX -21.9
    BTW, all the funds above have better long term(1-3-5-10-15 years) risk/reward than D&C funds too.
  • When Can America Reopen From Its Coronavirus Shutdown?
    Testing will be critical. For some reason that wasn't part of the politico analysis. We're still unable to do widespread testing even now. Shortages of reagents & PPE (as well as consistent leadership at the very top) still hamper this.
    From the Atlantic regarding timeline considerations:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-social-distancing-over-back-to-normal/608752/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20200330&silverid=NTkyMTU3MDQwMTE1S0
    From John Oliver:

  • M* Are Bond Funds 'Broken' as Diversifiers?
    Hi @Charles ........not picking on you, as you have placed valuable thoughts with your posts, relative to "bonds".
    Your April 3 post: "On regulation..."
    From the article:
    “I think you need more transparency where bonds are trading real time, [to aggregate] where the prices are at and find a best bid, best offer [so that] there’s a lot of increased confidence where bonds are trading, just like you have in equities,”
    >>> I continue to try to imagine how the S.E.C. or any other regulatory group can "force" the bond market (which has many various sectors, yes?) to otherwise price to an "exact" in a marketplace (for price and NAV) where it has been noted that a $10 trillion bond market doesn't have a similar amount of daily trading (sells and buys), relative to the equity market.
    Also, from the other April 3 post, "Indexes are one thing."
    Last February, there were $6T in bond funds (about $4.5T in OEFs) and I understand in March, like $250B in redemptions.
    >>> My math indicates a redemption amount of about 4.17%. Doesn't really seem so bad, eh?
    And from where did these redemptions arrive? Corp. and HY bonds? I don't have supporting data.......just my guess.
    ..... the lack of volatility providing (for some funds) false sense of security; therefore, more shocking the surprise when a crisis happens, which makes bond investors not used to drawdown, head for the door.
    ..... I see some bond funds like icebergs now.

    >>> One thing that I am sure of, and hopefully; not writing/sounding like a smart ass, is that over the years here reading questions and comments; is that most folks relative to bonds somewhat understand the difference between AAA bonds and HY/junk bonds. Everything in between is a mystery. I replied too many times in the last several weeks to express why such and such bond fund is "down". I've posted more than once bond rating standards by S&P. A question arises as to why "person X's" bond fund is reacting poorly.
    The answer is to look at the last known holdings and to discover that more than 50% of the "strategic/total or magic" bond fund is invested in BBB (edge of good junk) and lower rated bonds. Investor "x" was overly happy with the higher than normal yield, versus a plain vanilla bond fund that held higher rated bonds with lower yields. The reflection of the high yield is related to risk of the asset, yes?
    My takeaway is that the most common wording related to investing are the words, "the stock market"; with a common question being, "Are you invested in the stock market?' I've mentioned in direct conversation, "Well, yes; but also the bond markets". This always gets the question mark face expression, a "huh". Bond investing awareness is thin.
    Are Bond Funds 'Broken' as Diversifiers? No !!!, depending where the bond monies are parked.
    It is easy to say after the fact, is that not all bond area investing areas are equal and that folks will attempt to continue to educate themselves about bonds. Never before has an unlimited amount of learning been available via the internet. A lack of curiosity and wanting to know are the major limiting factors.
    The watching process begins, relative to COVID-19; and the long thread from Feb. 22, related initially back to Jan. 21. Link here, if you choose to read again.
    I've run my typing mouth enough.
    Be well.
    Catch
  • The Coronavirus Crash Reveals a Big Problem In Bond Fund Pricing
    So if there wasn't a bond bailout, more vanilla mutual fund bond funds would have started suffering severe losses due to this dislocation as well? It also seems the dislocation & mismatching occurred even between ETFs.
    Good news. Overall there isn't much difference in performance between the index type ETF & mutual funds despite all the gyrations.
    From Morningstar (I couldn't figure how to copy the page directly as there is no copy image location for the page on my browser):
    Total Ret 1-Day 1-Week 1-Month 3-Month YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-Year
    VBMFX 0.02 0.49 -0.91 2.88 3.56 9.77 4.73 3.25 3.77 4.27
    BND -0.05 0.11 -1.03 2.66 3.16 9.55 4.72 3.28 3.84
    SWAGX 0.10 0.70 -0.82 2.89 3.41 9.68 4.73
    SCHZ 0.33 -0.16 -1.49 2.16 2.75 8.91 4.49 3.12
  • The futures of the indices are up
    @Sven,
    Thank you for the positive feedback. I have learned so much from readers and incorporate the best into my investing methods. I enjoy sharing the research that I am doing and am glad that others find it useful.
    Yesterday, the stock market fell 1.5%, supposedly due to an unfavorable employment report. My personal belief is the market is heavily influenced by high frequency algorithm trading in the short term. I also believe that upcoming data on the economy and COVID-19 will drive the market lower over the next few quarters. For now, I believe that it is best to be safe and wait for a better opportunity to rebalance into stocks.
    Best wishes to all during these uncertain times.
    Charles Lynn Bolin ( @lynnbolin2021 )