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Proper research? @fundfun, it is pretty hard to research how a fund may perform in a bear market if it's never been in a bear market. Now we know. A lot of Doublelines info is a sales pitch. Actually the best information I've seen is in past posts here at MFO.I think the Doubleline website does a good job of explaining how it works, but I wonder how many people did proper research on it.
https://reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-plasma-explain/why-u-s-hospitals-see-promise-in-plasma-from-new-coronavirus-patients-idUSKBN21M0E3“Historically, this has worked,” said Dr. Jeffrey Henderson, associate professor of medicine and molecular microbiology at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis. “Before we had vaccines, this was used for infectious diseases like measles and diphtheria.”
Convalescent plasma was also successfully used during the 1918 flu pandemic, he said.
Doctors say protocols, such as dosage, are still uncertain for COVID-19 patients, but they believe the method is worth trying, at least until an effective COVID-19 vaccine or treatment is developed.
The Mayo Clinic and other U.S. sites are conducting a clinical study. Similar trials are under way in other countries where the virus has hit and some data has begun to emerge.
In one trial in China, levels of the virus in five seriously ill COVID-19 patients were undetectable after plasma transfusions, according to study results published last week in The Journal of the American Medical Association.
I would add that this downturn is far worse than 2008 housing crisis, and the pace of drawdown is unprecedented. In early March the market circuit breaker tripped several time in a day as the % decline was getting out of hand. In less than 7 weeks, the market has lost closed to 30%, and there is more to come as the unemployment number rapidly climbs. Until the infection spread is contained, i.e. exponential growth of infection approaches zero, the unemployment, consumer spending, and corporate earning are all in a very dire situation. I believe we are already in a recession and the earning season is upon us now.Yesterday, the stock market fell 1.5%, supposedly due to an unfavorable employment report. My personal belief is the market is heavily influenced by high frequency algorithm trading in the short term. I also believe that upcoming data on the economy and COVID-19 will drive the market lower over the next few quarters. For now, I believe that it is best to be safe and wait for a better opportunity to rebalance into stocks.
The problem with the NAV being wrong for the mutual funds is that on days when the ETF’s market price trades at a discount to NAV, that means investors who bought the mutual fund essentially overpaid for its elevated NAV, while those selling received more for their sale than they should have. There is ultimately a delay, as the stale prices for the mutual fund’s bond portfolio have to adjust. Investors saw the consequences of that delay on March 13, when the Vanguard mutual fund fell 0.5% on a day when the ETF rallied 4.2%.
In an email to Barron’s, AlphaCentric stated, “We believe the NAV of the AlphaCentric Income Opportunities fund was accurately priced each day. The price reflects the fair value of its underlying portfolio of residential mortgaged backed securities, not equities.…The AlphaCentric fund’s daily pricing was done by ICE, which is one of the largest and most respected independent pricing services.” Yet ETF experts say that such fair-valuation services employ limited data. “Only about 20% of the bond universe trades every day,” says Reggie Browne, a principal at market maker GTS with a long history developing the ETF business. “How do you go about calculating fair value for something that doesn’t trade? The ETF is priced minute by minute, not a static NAV.”
D&C have good funds but many of them are riskier and it shows at market stress such as 2008 and many times when stocks go down and 2020 is no different
For YTD
Allocation DODBX -23.4...PRWCX -16.2...JABAX -13.1
Mostly US LC: DODGX -32.1....SPY -22.4
Foreign stocks: DODFX -34.5...AFCNX -21.9
BTW, all the funds above have better long term(1-3-5-10-15 years) risk/reward than D&C funds too.
>>> I continue to try to imagine how the S.E.C. or any other regulatory group can "force" the bond market (which has many various sectors, yes?) to otherwise price to an "exact" in a marketplace (for price and NAV) where it has been noted that a $10 trillion bond market doesn't have a similar amount of daily trading (sells and buys), relative to the equity market.“I think you need more transparency where bonds are trading real time, [to aggregate] where the prices are at and find a best bid, best offer [so that] there’s a lot of increased confidence where bonds are trading, just like you have in equities,”
>>> My math indicates a redemption amount of about 4.17%. Doesn't really seem so bad, eh?Last February, there were $6T in bond funds (about $4.5T in OEFs) and I understand in March, like $250B in redemptions.
..... the lack of volatility providing (for some funds) false sense of security; therefore, more shocking the surprise when a crisis happens, which makes bond investors not used to drawdown, head for the door.
..... I see some bond funds like icebergs now.
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