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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Retirement and fund house choices
    I've been with Schwab for about 15 years now, and am pleased with fund selection, interaction with the local team and overall research available on the website. It might boil down to what you're looking for. Do you want to make your own decisions? Aside from what I described, they also have a private client offering for more customized service, as do others. Their robo-offerings are also well thought of.
  • Retirement and fund house choices
    Great point bee. A little story, I referred a friend to meet with the Schwab adviser I use. My friend wanted to roll over his 401k and decided to go with Schwab. As they talked the adviser told him, You know, I can't just come out with this, but if you were to ask me if we could match Fidelity's roll-over incentive I would have to say yes. So, the next words out of my friends mouth were, can you match Fidelitys offer, whatever that is. A bonus for my friend he didnt expect.
  • Deep Bench Bodes Well for Fidelity Intermediate Municipal Income
    Sorry, but FLTMX is far from the top. This fund performance is ranked at 57 for one year and 51-68 for 5-10 years :-)
  • Retirement and fund house choices
    @Art, I echoed comments from Mike, catch and msf. You can't go wrong with either Scheab and Fidelity. Noted there are differences that you may or may not need and you can decide. For us we have done business with Fidelity and Vanguard who they served as our 401(k) administrators as well as other retirement accounts. We seldom use Fidelity's retail shops although they are only a short drive away. Thus we slowly consolidated towards Vanguard while still have a taxable account with Fidelity. Even though we like T. Rowe Price funds, they are now on NTF platforms in Vanguard and Fidelity. The biggest draw for us is the low cost and quality of Vanguard funds we have access to - index and active managed funds.
  • Retirement and fund house choices
    Hi @Art. One thing I considered strongly when I moved 401k money to an IRA account was whether or not the brokerage had a local brick and mortar presence. I will always feel more confident with a face to face sit down than over the phone or computer. In my area that gave me Schwab or Fidelity. I picked Schwab, but as others mentioned you can't go wrong with either. I meet with my adviser free of charge once or twice a year, really just to bounce off ideas and decisions with him or ask about different options at Schwab. In fact I was there this past week to get his take on starting SS (I'm 66 now and cutting back to part time work) or pull some from my nest egg. He was helpful in giving pros and cons to both. We also discussed the new Schwab 'Intelligent Income' option now offered which is an easy way to set up a withdrawal account.
    Good luck with your decision.
  • Retirement and fund house choices
    We've had accounts at Fidelity since 1978. We echo Mark's opinion. I have had accounts at Schwab and Vanguard for 401k purposes. This allowed me to view the differences and compare. I didn't find anything wrong with either of them; but Fidelity was my benchmark. We've consolidated to Fidelity, and Schwab would be the #2 choice.....either of these for us; but have no need for other.
  • Deep Bench Bodes Well for Fidelity Intermediate Municipal Income
    I use VWIUX in this space because of the lower ER (0.09 vs 0.35). However, in past years when I sold lots at a loss, the proceeds immediately went into FLTMX. After 31 days, I would go back to VWIUX.
    Mona
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    I assume the mortgage bonds in IOFIX are less sensitive to the emotions in BB or B rated energy or airline bond markets making IOFIX less variable recently. Liquidity is a real risk in IOFIX although the mangers recognize that and have lines of credit etc prepared they say.
    The mangers are much more aware of the problem of the credit markets than we are but how quickly can you turn a 10 or 15 billion dollar fund like JMSIX around? Hopefully they anticipated a lot of this.
    Core plus funds and even BND out preformed probably due to their heavy doses of Treasuries.
    ZEOIX has dropped almost 1% in the last week or two similar to December 2018. I spoke to them back then and they said that even though the NAV was down due to falling prices of their junk bonds, it would quickly recover because they were confident in their security analysis and none of the bonds would default in the short time left till they matured. Sure enough the NAV quickly came back up
    It is probably different if some of these other funds hold longer duration securities.
  • 1.90% 30 yr UST.....change notice, 1.00% w/.54% on 10 yr UST; "Welcome to the Twilight Zone"
    *** Price check, aisle 3 !!! ***
    Already seems so long ago (Feb. 17), when I first noted that the 30 year T yield moved below 2%.
    Here we are in Never-Never Land in the world of bonds.
    I'll add this yield chart that I use. The chart is for 1 year and is YIELD, not pricing. Hover the cursor on the chart lines for rate and date info.
    A few views from bondland:
    Week / YTD
    --- MINT = -.02%/+.5% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity)
    --- SHY = +.7%/+2.2% (1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +1.6%/+5.4% (3-7 yr notes)
    --- IEF = +2.8%/+9.5% (7-10 yr notes)
    --- TLT = +7.5%/+23.5% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +10%/+31.4% (Vanguard extended duration gov't)
    --- ZROZ = +10.6%/+35% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    ***Other:
    --- LQD = +1.85%/+5.5% (corp. bonds)
    --- TIP =+2.1%/+5.2% (UST., inflation bonds, mixed duration)
    --- LTPZ = +7.1%/+17.9% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds)
    This chart is EDV vs SPY going back to December, 2007. TLT, EDV, ZROZ and LTPZ are hot potatoes in the bond arena. The chart, however; indicates the major inverse relationship to the U.S. equity market. When things are sour in equity land, these shine; but one must pay attention.
    Overall, in the past several weeks, investment grade bonds (U.S. gov't), notes and bills have helped a great deal to maintain a balance. Where a bond fund you may hold has it's holdings will be reflected with some of the above returns. A possible exception now and going forward may be in the corp. bond area; as many companies have large bond debt, some of which is borderline "good junk" , particularly if company earnings falter in this environment.
    Is there bond life after the 0% rate yield? Yes, from what I've followed with the German, 10 year Bund. Take a peek, here.
    Well, I've probably forgotten something that I really intended to mention. But, that is the purpose of the edit button.
    If you discover a mistake, please let me know. Chore time for this fellow, for a bit.
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • PDI, PCI or PTY
    @wxman123 - yes that was. I grabbed some as well.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Morning,
    You noted:
    I'm finding that the US10YrT is now being listed at 0.97% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.92%.
    My data indicates the 10 year ended the week with a yield at .74%
  • Did Mutual Funds Perform as Expected During the Mini-Crash
    Question - where is the author getting an 11% decline in the S&P 500 for the week? All the info I've been looking at shows that the S&P 500 was actually up 0.4% for the week and down YTD -7.6% ? Hard to gain mental traction with the rest of the article after that.
    Edit - FWIW I'm using SPY as my measure/data source. Also, from the Fun with Numbers department: Up 1,293, down 785, up 1,173, down 969, down 256. The Dow point moves this week.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    As of market close March 6th, according to the metrics of Old_Skeet's stock market barometer, the S&P 500 Index is extremely oversold with a reading of 168. This is down 7 points from last weeks close of 175 where the Index was also considered to be extremely oversold. A lower barometer reading indicates there is less investment value in the Index over a higher reading. During the week, the average naked short volume moved from a weekly average of 52% to 64%. A great deal changed there along with the VIX (which is a measure of volatility) which went from 29 to 36. The the stock Index's valuation gained a little ground through the week with an 18 point gain moving from a reading of 2954 to 2972. From a yield perspective, I'm finding that the US10YrT is now being listed at 0.767% (MarketWatch) while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.92%. With the stock market swoon the S&P 500 Index is currently listed with a dividend yield of 1.96% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.82%. As you can see there is now a good yield advantage for the stock Index over the Ten Year Treasury. With this, I'm now favoring equity income over fixed income due to this yield spread. I also I feel that the stock market is somewhat oversold and bonds are extremely overbought. My three best performing funds this past week were SVAAX +3.14% ... PGUAX +3.10% ... and, DIFAX +1.88%. All of these are good dividend paying funds.
    This week I thought I'd write about Old_Skeet's SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess). There are a number of sources that I use to formulate my SWAG. A couple of these I'll cover in this writting. One is the forward earning estimate (FE) and the trailing twelve months earnings (TTM) for the S&P 500 Index. I usually get this data from S&P. Then another data point that I use is a multiplier. This multiplier is derived from using the total return from a couple of my multi sector income funds for their five year average total return period. This is then used to compare the earnings yield of the S&P 500 Index to my better performing multi sector bond fund's total return. The TTM earnings yield for the Index computes to 4.7%. While, the total retun for my better performing multi sector income funds is found to be about 5%. Thus, the multi sector bond funds currently have the advantage by this metric.
    But, that is not all! We still have forward earnings estimates to consider for the stock Index. Using a revised forward earnings estimate number of $159.00 (down from $175.00) computes to an earnings yield of 5.3%. This favors the stock Index.
    Combining the two to produce a blended number TTM (4.7%) and the fordward number (5.3%) produces a blended earnings yield of 5%. With this, there is no current advantage to either using the blended metric. In looking at this from a little different perspective and by using the multipler number 20 (representing a 5% earnings yield) and dividing it by the closing value of 2972 produces an earnings number of $148.60. At the close of this month, for March, S&P projects TTM earnings to be $139.95. And, using the full year $159.00 earning number puts the stock Index at 3180. Using this analysis puts the Index near term overvalued (valuation ahead of earnings) and for the full year undervalued (valuation behind earnings).
    I'm with the thought that the market is going to reflect a TTM valuation model of what have you done for me over what are you projected to do for me model (FE) due the uncertainty about the coronavirus and the virus' effect on forward earnings. This has caused many investors that were using leverage to deleverage and sell stocks which has lead to the stock market swoon we are currently facing.
    What does this mean? For me, I'm not looking for stocks to out perform my better performing multi sector income funds over the next few years. However, I am favoring my beaten down equity income funds to out perform the stock Index and my better performing multi sector funds over the near term. Just this past week my two best performing funds were of the equity dividend paying type. They were SVAAX +3.14% & PGUAX +3.10%.
    With this, I plan to position new money (generated by my portfolio) towards my good dividend paying equity mutual funds. In addition, I plan to open a position in IDIVX which is up +2.95% for the week.
    I hope this weeks barometer report has provided you with an insight that might not have been previsouly considered. Just because this is what Old_Skeet's course of action will be inside of his own portfolio doen't not mean that you should follow my plan of action.
    Simply stated ... "The stock and bond markets might not follow my SWAG."
    Thanks for stopping by and reading.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @FD100
    Thanks for the update. I assume that you pretty much ignore the month or older published portfolios and focus on the NAV performance as a reflection of what the fund is actually buying and selling?
    Since the prices of a lot of these bonds and instruments are estimated are you worried that they will all be repriced at once much lower, causing a dramatic drop? Presumably this is what caused the 1% drop in IOFIX last year mentioned in other posts.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Last week was a good test for your bond funds.
    Multi-SEMMX,IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PTIAX,JMUTX,JMSIX. PTIAX(1.1%) continues its momentum which tells me they own higher rates bonds than the rest. JMSIX(0.5%) had a nice week too. IOFIX (0.40%) continues to be the best securitized.
    "Cash sub"- DHEAX (0.2%) proved why high IG bonds is important. SEMMX surprisingly lost -0.1.
    Bank loans - lost too much and the category is at -2.1% for YTD and similar to HY performance which has a much higher duration.
    HY Muni-all the ones I follow lost but GHYAX -1%(bigger loss)...OPTAX only -0.3 and even ST duration NVHAX -0.5%.
    For core plus: PINCX 1.8%...BCOIX 1.5%....DODIX only 0.8%...UBISX 1.15%...PTTRX 1.6%
    But we also learned last week that funds with low SD for 3 years didn't perform that well exactly when you needed them...IISIX -0.2%...JMUTX -0.2%...PIMIX -0.3%...SSTHX -0.3% While much "riskier" IOFIX with SD = 2.7 performed extremely well YTD=3.2% and one week=0.4%
  • Did Mutual Funds Perform as Expected During the Mini-Crash
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/970581/did-mutual-funds-perform-as-expected-during-the-mini-crash
    Did Mutual Funds Perform as Expected During the Mini-Crash?
    For the most part, yes.
    John Rekenthaler
    Mar 6, 2020
    Open Questions
    It’s no secret that the S&P 500 dropped 11% last week. Less discussed has been how that downturn affected funds. Did any stock fund categories escape the damage? Did bond funds and alternative funds protect against the carnage? Should 401(k) investors be pleased with their target-date funds? Finally, how did active equity funds fare?
  • Is your mf political biased
    https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T041-C023-S002-is-your-mutual-fund-politically-biased.html
    Is Your Mutual Fund Politically Biased?
    A recent study showed that partisan-leaning managers invest about 43% of assets in firms whose executives share the managers’ party affiliation.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @Mona: thanks for your post. A number of years back, I got flagged at VG. over a small 4 figure amount. I guess it was more of a warning than anything else . I had recently opened the account. Thanks for mentioning the qualifying amount then selling a bunch of shares. Did you wait the 30,60, or 90 day requirement before selling ? It seems to be some funds require a certain amount be in the account or in will be sold out ?
    Also before closing one more question. Did you try your buy then turn around & sell with a VG fund or a different fund that they sell ?
    Thanks for your time, Derf
    Derf, some time ago, I thought SIGIX was THE fund to own and thought it would close for eternity. So, at Vanguard and Schwab, I purchased the minimum to qualify for institutional shares. While I am embarrassed to say, I did in 5 different accounts, including two taxable accounts where I did not want this fund.
    Being all accounts had institutional shares and no short term redemption fee, almost immediately, I sold all but 1 share 4 accounts and for good or bad, built a position in the 5th account which is a Roth IRA.
    Fast forward. Today, I have SIGIX in the Roth IRA with Schwab, 1 share in my Schwab One account and 1 share in a Vanguard IRA account. I can't give you a good reason why I hold onto the 1 share accounts. Probably just laziness.
    Regarding your last question, the only workaround that I was familiar with Vanguard's 30 day "frequent trading policy", was if you sold a Vanguard fund you were able to write a letter of instructions to Vanguard requesting to purchase that same fund within the 30 day period that you sold it. However, August 13, 2019, Vanguard changed their policy, and in fact, broadened it, and now you can't make any purchases or redemptions with a letter of instructions.
    Mona
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    From the CDC
    https://www.cdc.gov/handwashing/show-me-the-science-hand-sanitizer.html#twentyone
    Reference 21 has a large scientific discussion of all of the issues. Many are irritating but true allergy to just alcohol is rare.
    The biggest problem is not picking the best substance, it is the fact that most of us do not use something all the time and forget to wash your hands or use sanitizer before you touch your mouth nose etc.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    I'm so glad I transferred most of my money to Schwab. I got several thousand cash reward + I trade with no warnings.
    You can't do the following easy trade at Fidelity. Suppose your IRA has $100,500 in PIMIX and you want to buy $100K of JMUTX instead. At Schwab, you enter both trades. At Fidelity, you enter your sell but now you must call a rep. Then, they allow you to buy only 90% of the $100.5K...crazy irritating stuff.