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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Global Valuations
    DSEUX: I guess I'm not sure how it would work compared to domestic DSENX. DSENX buys undervalued sectors from the S&P 500. Pretty clear and straight forward. CAPE picks from a somewhat stable group of U.S. stocks. Companies in a sector somewhat move in tandem. What index or group of countries will this fund use when buying? If the consumer sector is where value lies, is it the same value in the UK as it is in Greece? There are just so many other variables when buying global, country and regional variables that can drive sectors differently in different countries. That is pretty much why managed international or EM funds typically do better than index.
    It may be clear to others, but to me it is not straight forward how International CAPE will work and that it will have category beating returns like domestic CAPE. And because it is basically a semi-quant fund, there is no reason to get in early IM<HO. The "manager" has no more flexibility with a small asset base than a large one. But, to each his own.
  • Global Valuations
    @kevindow,
    Thanks much. I chose (long ago) SGOIX over it, but agree it has been on a real tear.
    I recently ditched OAKIX for Herro's idiot comments on global warming, and, since SGOIX is closed even to current investors, went w/ FOSFX. Shoulda switched to FMI instead.
    I do not feel a need for a track record to develop w/ DSEUX, but for the last half-decade I have in any case kept at the front of my mind John Waggoner's pointing out that today no one really needs any foreign funds.
    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/perfi/funds/story/2012-07-04/second-quarter-mutual-funds-international/56008492/1
    I just asked him if he still held this view and he said Pretty much.
  • muni weekly news read
    PTIAX 35% Muni's as of:
    FACT SHEET | DECEMBER 31, 2016
    Non-Agency RMBS 43.68%
    Tax-ExemptMunicipal 24.99%
    Taxable Municipal 11.24%
    CMBS 10.09%
    CLOs 4.28%
    Cash 2.14%
    U.S.Treasuries 1.88%
    Corporates 1.70%
    http://ptiafunds.com/documents/ptiax_factsheet.pdf
    No current commentary available as of 1/13/2017
    High Yield Corps
    Artisan High Income Fund 12/31/2017 Fact Sheet ARTFX
    High yield bond yields and spreads compressed approximately 40bps in December. Since the mid-February peak in spreads, high yield bond yields are nearly 4 percentage points lower and spreads are roughly 450bps tighter. There was no bigger driver this year for credit markets than improving fundamentals in the commodity sectors. In December, the energy sector received an additional boost from OPEC’s agreement to curtail production.
    Non-investment grade credit is clearly richer than it was coming into 2016 given the robust returns and degree of spread tightening that occurred. However, we believe the risk/reward opportunity in the asset class is still superior to most other areas of fixed income where yields remain quite low and possess greater interest rate risk. In that type of environment, we believe the idiosyncratic and focused nature of our portfolio is well positioned.
    Corporate Bonds 74.9
    Bank Loans 20.0
    Equities 0.6
    Cash and Equivalents 4.5
    https://www.artisanpartners.com/content/dam/documents/monthly-commentary/vr/2016/dec/ARTFX-APDFX-MCommentary-1216-vR.pdf
  • Towle Deep Value Fund to close to third party intermediaries
    It's an awfully admirable decision. They've been struggling for years to get attention. They returned 54% last year, despite a contracting pool of opportunities, and got serious attention. Having concluded that there simply aren't many opportunities and reluctant to hold cash, they're closing the door to their most popular channel. It seems very principled to me.
    David
  • Global Valuations
    The country allocation of GVAL is bit too risky for my taste:
    Russia 11.2%
    Austria 10.9%
    Brazil 10.2%
    Portugal 9.7%
    Spain 8.9%
    Hungary 7.9%
    Greece 7.8%
    Poland 7.7%
    Czech Republic 7.1%
    Norway 6.5%
    Hong Kong 6.2%
    Italy 5.8%
    I will stay with SFGIX for the emerging market. Also I established a position with DSEEX last fall - so far it has done well.
  • What Are You Buying ... Selling ... or Pondering?
    @BenWP,
    FMIJX now offers an institutional class, FMIYX at lower expense ratio at 0.84% and a minimum $2,500 (not $1M with most institutional shares). At Fidelity, it requires $50 to purchase this transaction fee fund. You can buy more later via automatic investment and $5 per transaction. This was made available late last year and I have made the switch.
  • Towle Deep Value Fund to close to third party intermediaries
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834417000539/fp0023990_497.htm
    497 1 fp0023990_497.htm
    Towle Deep Value Fund
    (Ticker Symbol: TDVFX)
    A series of Investment Managers Series Trust (the “Trust)
    Supplement dated January 13, 2017 to the
    Prospectus, Statement of Additional Information and Summary Prospectus, dated February 1, 2016.
    IMPORTANT NOTICE ON PURCHASE OF FUND SHARES
    Effective as of the close of business on January 27, 2017 (the “Closing Date”), the Towle Deep Value Fund (the “Fund”) will be publicly offered on a limited basis.
    After the Closing Date, only certain investors will be eligible to purchase shares of the Fund, as described below (the “closure policy”). In addition, both before and after the Closing Date, the Fund may from time to time, in its sole discretion based on the Fund’s net asset levels and other factors, limit the types of investors permitted to open new accounts, limit new purchases into the Fund or otherwise modify the closure policy at any time on a case-by-case basis.
    The following groups will be permitted to continue to purchase Fund shares after the Closing Date:
    1. Shareholders of record of the Fund as of the Closing Date may continue to purchase additional shares in their existing Fund accounts either directly from the Fund or through a financial intermediary and may continue to reinvest dividends or capital gains distributions from shares owned in the Fund.
    2. Existing registered investment advisor (RIA) and bank trust firms that have an investment allocation to the Fund in a fee-based, wrap or advisory account may continue to add new clients or purchase shares.
    3. New shareholders may open Fund accounts and purchase shares directly from the Fund (i.e. not through a financial intermediary).
    4. Certain financial intermediaries may continue to open new underlying customer accounts provided the platform on which they offer access to the Fund has an existing funded position.
    5. Group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b), 457 plans, and health savings account programs (and their successor, related and affiliated plans), which make the Fund available to participants on or before the Closing Date, may continue to open accounts for new participants in the Fund and purchase additional shares in existing participant accounts. New group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b), and 457 plans, and health savings account programs (and their successor, related and affiliated plans), may also establish new accounts with the Fund, provided the new plans have approved and selected the Fund as an investment option by the Closing Date and the plan has also been accepted for investment by the Fund by the Closing Date.
    6. Members of the Fund’s Board of Trustees, persons affiliated with the Advisor and their immediate families will be able to purchase shares of the Fund and establish new accounts.
    In general, the Fund will rely on a financial intermediary to prevent a new account from being opened within an omnibus account established at that financial intermediary if the account would not otherwise satisfy the conditions outlined above. The Fund’s ability to monitor new accounts that are opened through omnibus accounts or other nominee accounts is limited and the ability to limit a new account to those that meet the above criteria with respect to financial intermediaries may vary depending upon the capabilities of those financial intermediaries. Investors may be asked to verify that they meet one of the exceptions above prior to opening a new account in the Fund. The Fund may permit you to open a new account if the Fund reasonably believes that you are eligible. The Fund also may decline to permit you to open a new account if the Fund believes that doing so would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders, even if you would be eligible to open a new account under these exceptions. If all shares of the Fund in an existing account are redeemed, the shareholder’s account will be closed. Such former shareholders will not be able to buy additional shares of the Fund or reopen their account.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.
  • What Are You Buying ... Selling ... or Pondering?
    Closed out JOHAX after another disappointing year. Adding to FMIJX in foreign large cap allocation. BTW, M* still has OAKIX as gold, 5 star but FMIJX has truly clocked it for three years.
  • Abhay Deshpande CINTX and CENTS - any opinion?
    From the talk by Deshpande a month ago:
    "Finally, and most importantly the employees of Centerstone have invested eight figures
    in total into the Funds. There can be, in my mind, no other greater alignment of interest
    than investing alongside one’s client base."
    Eight figures means more than $10M. The total AUM of the two funds is approximately $60M. In other words, unless I am mistaken, he says that more than 15% of the AUM of the two funds is due to the investment of the employees of Centerstone.
  • What Are You Buying ... Selling ... or Pondering?
    I want to add to DSEEX but see that I am ~75% equities, which is too high, so I don't know what to do. (I know what to do, just don't want to.) I just read the detailed and carefully substantiated Goldman analyses of conditions for 2017, which are optimistic. I will move some more cash into PONDX, PDI, and FRIFX, though not FNMIX.
  • M* nominees for US fund managers of the year 2016
    Of course, it helps to know which end of the horse is selecting the investments.
    Seems I have a horse in most of these races. Should I divest if they win?
    First part: (easiest to address): Let's hope that the horse is being fed and stable cleaned by some good research and analytical people underneath. (no pun intended)
    Second part: Dunno. I wouldn't sell - but wouldn't be pleased either. I've worried about the "popularity effect" for several years with PRWCX. Haven't sold, but keep only a small % of assets in that fund. Lagged noticeably last year. The ingredient that's hardest to figure out when thinking about the effect of money flows on a fund is how much of the AUM is relatively stable (committed for the long term) and how much will flee when things turn south. It's the rapid flow out during hard times that can really ding a fund and damage those who remain behind.
    As an aside: If you like timing, one might try to ride a fund higher as the popularity grows and than bail about the time the popularity begins to wane. I'm pretty sure I've seen evidence in the past that some big investors do follow fund flow data with precisely this intention.
  • Abhay Deshpande CINTX and CENTS - any opinion?
    @kevindow Your point was that the fund will not close anytime soon because the manager's intention is "looking for assets like First Eagle," which the manager has stated is false.
    The manager has between 50-100K in the domestic fund; he has none in the international fund. I like to see managers have some meaningful stake in their products, but at the same time I don't conclude that they "don't have confidence" in their own ability.
    You are very correct in stating that it may take "5 or more years" for the fund to reach 10B at its present pace!
    OTOH, I'm unconvinced that if the fund reaches that amount that "greed will overcome principle like it usually does," especially when the manager has stated that he will limit assets. What I have seen in my past investment experience is that managers who have said that they will close the cash windows do follow through, and so I'm making a judgment in the case of Mr. Deshpande that he will do the same. Based on what he has said and written publicly indicates that his goal is to produce superior returns, not accumulate assets, and so I will take him as a man of principle rather than as someone following his own selfish interests.
    I have a very favorable opinion of FMIJX but do not own it.
    Best.
  • Abhay Deshpande CINTX and CENTS - any opinion?
    @openice,
    OK, let me be clear. The current AUM is a measly $53M for a fund which began collecting assets 8 months ago in May 2016. Like I said, this fund will not close to new investors anytime soon.
    Also, Mr. Deshpande only has a paltry $100K or less invested of his own money in this fund, according to the latest SAI. Why should I have confidence in this fund if the manager doesn't ??
    And if the AUM get near $10B, which may take 5 or more years at this pace, I predict that greed will overcome principle -- like it usually does -- and the fund will stay open to ALL investors.
    Again, in this space, FMIJX would be my choice and not Mr. Deshpande's fund.
    Kevin
  • Global Valuations
    Here are two sites that I follow for global valuations:
    Global Stock Market Valuations and Expected Future Returns
    Global Stock Market Valuation Ratios
    The following article demonstrates how CAPE and P/B reliably predict future market returns and market drawdowns in both domestic and foreign equity markets:
    Predicting Stock Market Returns Using The Shiller Cape

    Excellent excerpt from this last article:
    "Existing research indicates that the cyclically adjusted Shiller CAPE has predicted long-term returns in the S&P 500 since 1881 fairly reliable for periods of more than 10 years. Furthermore, the results of this paper indicate that this was also the case for 16 other international equity markets in the period from 1979 to 2015, and in addition to this, CAPE also enabled equity market risks to be gauged. In this manner, low market valuations were not only followed by above average market returns but also lower drawdowns. On the contrary, high market valuations led to lower returns and faced higher market risks."
    As far as investing, what does all this mean to me. Since CAPE matters globally, I am inclined to consider the ETF CAPE (however, average daily trading volume is too low for me), the ETF GVAL, and the mutual funds DSEEX/DSENX and DSEUX/DLEUX.
    In our portfolio, I am confident in using CAPE and P/B for investment selection, and have an 18% position in DSEEX and a 10% position in PXH.
    Kevin
  • Abhay Deshpande CINTX and CENTS - any opinion?
    It sounds like an advertisement, because the first two sentences were copied from the web, but the end of it was mine: First Eagle funds are famous for their stability, safety and growth. I always wanted to have a chance to invest with them, but their funds either require 5% load, or 1 M for the institutional shares. Right now First Eagle Overseas has 15B AUM, and First Eagle Global has 51B AUM. Some of their leaders such as Jean-Marie Eveillard and Abhay Deshpande left. Meanwhile AUM of Centerstone funds is 1000 time smaller.
  • What Are You Buying ... Selling ... or Pondering?
    @Old_Skeet - You did well and stuck with your methodology. I like a bond-only portfolio because of the lower maximum draw down, which was 0.8% vs 8.5% for the S&P in Feb 2016.
    I hope we all do well in 2017.
  • M* nominees for US fund managers of the year 2016
    Some strong candidates. Its only for 2016 but I have been invested in twvlx since 1994 and tweix since 2006. IMO Mr. Davidson and team consistently have provided good risk/return performances over multiple time frames and cycles.
    http://corporate.morningstar.com/us/asp/subject.aspx?xmlfile=174.xml&filter=PR5719
  • What Are You Buying ... Selling ... or Pondering?
    Since, the topic has move to portfolio and investment performance Morningstar reports my investment return for 2016 at 10.1% while my brokerge house reports my combined account(s) returned 8.3% for the year which includes my sizeable cash position of about 20%. My bogey, the Lipper Balanced Index, is being reported to have returned 7.0% for 2016. With this, I score myself successful for the past year although my return fell short of my five year average return of 9.0%. I use my five year average return rate to help set my portfolio's annual distribution rate. Generally, I take no more than a sum equal to one halve of my five year average return.
    My best performing sleeve for 2016 was my small/mid cap sleeve found in the growth area of my postfolio with a return of 38.7%. The next two best were found in the growth & income area of my portfolio with my domestic equity sleeve which returned 16.8% which edeged out my domestic hybrid sleeve with a return of 16.6%.
    Seems though some of you active bond fellas (Junkster & SlowLane) left me snockered with your returns. I am happy with my return so I know you two have to be excitied with yours.
    For infromation purposes and according to Instant Xray my portfolio bubbles at 20% cash, 25% bonds, 34% US stocks, 16% foreign stocks and 5% other as I open 2017.
    Wishing everyone "Good Investing" as we move through 2017.
    Again, nice going @Junkster & @SlowLane!
    Old_Skeet