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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bragg Capital proxy statement with FPA Funds
    If shareholders approve the agreement, FPA distributes the funds and their expense ratios drop by 0.14 - 0.30%. Day to day management doesn't change and, so far as I can tell from talking to both sides, there's no plan to make any changes that would affect the funds' investors.
  • Mutual Fund Observer, September
    Nuts. Lost my (draft) note to VF. (sigh) I'll try again.
    Hi!
    Mr. O. didn't run POGSX 20 years ago. When he came onboard, he began moderating its aggressiveness and ended up outperforming the S&P 500 pretty substantially. ($10K grew to about $30K with him and $25K with the S&P 500 during his stint at POGSX.) I have no idea of why he left Oak Associates, through that difference of styles might have had some relevance. In any case, it's a LCV with cash for now.
    Mr. C. got killed in 2000-02. I think he learned from the experience. The SEC permitted Osterweis to include his private partnership in the fund's prospectus, so there's about a 10 year record with about 200 bps of annual outperformance. It does not appear that the returns reflect excessive risk; standard deviation is a bit high, but all of the other measures of risk and risk-adjusted returns are at or below average.
    As always, the goal is not to flog a fund - in either the positive or negative sense - just to be sure we're willing to look at places that we'd normally write off without much examination.
    Cheers, David
  • 3 Highly Rated Large-Growth Managers Who Are Wary About the Big 5
    what really concerns me re AKREX Akre Focus fund is the number of holdings that sell for way over 10x price to sales...have been reducing holdings in this fund...regardless if they hold any of the FANG stocks...
    Baseball_Fan
  • PartnerSelect Smaller Companies Fund (I class) to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020425/000168386320013174/f6885d1.htm
    (MSSFX)
    497 1 f6885d1.htm FORM 497
    LITMAN GREGORY FUNDS TRUST
    Supplement dated September 11, 2020
    to Prospectus of the
    Litman Gregory Funds Trust dated April 29, 2020, as supplemented
    This supplement should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus dated April 29, 2020, as supplemented.
    For all existing shareholders of the PartnerSelect Smaller Companies Fund (formerly, Litman Gregory Masters Smaller Companies Fund):
    The Board of Trustees (the "Board") of the Litman Gregory Funds Trust (the "Trust" or the "Funds") has approved the tax-free reorganization of the PartnerSelect Smaller Companies Fund, a series of the Trust (the "Smaller Companies Fund"), into the PartnerSelect SBH Focused Small Value Fund, a series of the Trust (the "SBH Focused Small Value Fund") (the "Reorganization"). The Reorganization does not require the approval of the shareholders of the Smaller Companies Fund or the SBH Focused Small Value Fund.
    The Reorganization was proposed because, among other things, the announced pending retirement of Dick Weiss, portfolio manager of the portion of the Smaller Companies Fund sub-advised by Wells Capital Management, Inc., and the decision by Litman Gregory Fund Advisors LLC (the "Adviser") to not recommend the continuation of the sub-advisory relationship with Wells absent Mr. Weiss as portfolio manager. The Board also considered the overall decline in assets in the Smaller Companies Fund from shareholder redemptions that has resulted in a corresponding increase in the Smaller Companies Fund's expense ratio. The Adviser has advised the Board that it is unlikely that the Smaller Companies Fund will increase in size significantly in the foreseeable future. The SBH Focused Small Value Fund and the Smaller Companies Fund have the same investment objective and similar investment strategies, policies, risks, and restrictions. Furthermore, the investment sub-advisor of the SBH Focused Small Value Fund also currently manages a portion of the Smaller Companies Fund, thus preserving access by shareholders to this manager's portfolio management expertise. The Adviser has committed to limit the expenses of the SBH Focused Small Value Fund at a level below that of the Smaller Companies Fund at least through April 30, 2022. By consolidating the two funds instead of liquidating the Smaller Companies Fund, the Adviser believes that significant realized and unrealized capital losses and capital loss carryforwards may be preserved for the benefit of shareholders while allowing individual shareholders to assess their particular tax situations and act in their own best interest with respect to the realization of capital gains or losses.
    To effectuate the Reorganization, the Smaller Companies Fund will transfer all of its assets to the SBH Focused Small Value Fund, and the SBH Focused Small Value Fund will assume all of the liabilities of the Smaller Companies Fund. On the date of the closing of the Reorganization, shareholders of the Smaller Companies Fund will receive Institutional Class shares of the SBH Focused Small Value Fund equal in aggregate net asset value to the value of their shares of the Smaller Companies Fund, in exchange for their shares of the Smaller Companies Fund. The Reorganization is expected to be effective in October 2020.
    Effective September 14, 2020, shares of the Smaller Companies Fund will no longer be offered to new shareholders, and shareholders holding Institutional Class shares of any other series of the Trust will not be able to exchange their shares for shares of the Smaller Companies Fund. Shareholders of the Smaller Companies Fund will be allowed to redeem their shares in the Fund until the closing of the Reorganization.
    Please keep this Supplement with your Prospectus.
  • 3 Highly Rated Large-Growth Managers Who Are Wary About the Big 5
    History casts doubts on the reign of the five biggest companies.
    Not one of the 31 funds whose oldest share class has a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Gold or Silver had a combined Big Five stake equal to the Russell 1000 Growth Index’s, as of its most recent portfolio.
    Three managers stand out for shying away from the Big Five. Akre Focus’ (AKRIX)...PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth’s (POGRX)...Morgan Stanley Institutional Growth (MSEQX)
    Those who’d like to reduce their exposure don’t need to turn to value strategies or overseas stocks but can instead consider one of the three large-growth funds above.
    https://morningstar.com/articles/1000639/3-top-growth-fund-managers-wary-of-the-big-5
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Put on an April 21 20/25 combo spread for LORL. It has SPAC-like qualities and there may be some corporate actions/IPOs that drive the price higher. (This is a speculative trade, btw.)
  • Defensive fund options
    But since I use MERFX as a cash substitute, 2%-3% per year is fine with me<
    The problem is for me a cash substitute fund cannot have sustained a loss greater than 2% in a year, and preferably no loss ever. Why take the risk with such meager returns? My cash subs include, SNGVX (1 off year in 31, so it gets a pass on my 2% rule); BBBMX; GILPX, VNLA (ETF) and even good old BSV (ETF). You can buy with confidence that any loss will be small and temporary. Not so clear with MERFX, which suffered a 5.67% loss in 2002 and 2.26% loss in 2008.
  • Stock Market Crash 2020: Welcome To The End Game / Intelligent Investing - Clem Chambers
    “The Nasdaq is on its final run and is going vertical, a classic end of bubble move. This is trader heaven and turns into speculator hell for those who think that markets do grow to the skies. It could go up a long way in price but it won’t go for long in time. It could last to Christmas, it could fold tomorrow, but my feeling is that unless this bubble is cut down by the Fed, the final move will be large and quick.”
    -
    Disclaimer: I do not necessarily subscribe to these views. I’m linking article for discussion purposes only. While not a technical analysis adherent or so skilled, I always enjoy reading technical analysis as yet one more way to understand both markets and market participants.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2020/07/16/stock-market-crash-2020-welcome-to-the-end-game/
  • Market Volatility Continues / Dow, NASDAQ slide Thursday - CNBC
    Stocks fell sharply in volatile trading on Thursday as the rout in tech — the best-performing sector in the market — resumed after a one-day respite. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 405.89 points lower, or 1.45%, at 27,534.58. Earlier in the session, the Dow was up more than 200 points. The S&P 500 slid 1.8% to close at 3,339.19. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2% to 10,919.59 after surging as much as 1.4%. It was the fourth decline in five sessions for the major averages.
    Article
    I will be very surprised if this elephant can’t be kept aloft until November. I think Congress and the Federal Reserve will be throwing money at it soon. However, I’ve been wrong before. The deadlock in DC may be so severe that it allows this rout to continue. If this slide is allowed to get much worse, likely nothing will be able to halt it. I say that I don’t invest according to my macro read. Generally that’s true. But sometimes my “compass“ gets a bit disturbed by my macro view. Hard to shut everything out. BTW - I like gold at least to November - probably much longer. What do others see in the months ahead for this market?
  • Any news that prompted the market turnaround?
    From what I read, September is the worst month of the year for stocks. Maybe it's just the cycle. Heck, tech stocks were and still are greatly over valued.
    I've reduced risk over the past few months and the recent dip doesn't surprise. Gone from 50% equity in may to 40% now. That 10% difference went mainly into my "other " category according to Schwab. This crazy world worries me to much. Maybe, hopefully, after the election we'll start to see some stability.
  • Defensive fund options
    I have owned MERFX and ARBIX for years
    They haven't done much at all. Total position is up 6% since 1/2019
  • Stan Druckenmiller on Bubbles and Mania, Parties and Hangovers
    You may remember Stan Druckenmiller as a frequent guest on the old PBS Nightly Business Report. This is not intended to represent a broad spectrum of opinion. Nor is his view anything new (unless you’ve been asleep in a cave for the past decade or longer). Since Wikipedia is a free encyclopedia, I’m quoting an amount of bio that under normal circumstances might be inappropriate.
    Druckenmiller began his financial career in 1977 as a management trainee at Pittsburgh National Bank. He became head of the bank's equity research group after one year. In 1981, he founded his own firm, Duquesne Capital Management. In 1985, he became a consultant to Dreyfus, splitting his time between Pittsburgh and New York, where he lived two days each week. He moved to Pittsburgh full-time in 1986, when he was named head of the Dreyfus Fund. As part of his agreement with Dreyfus, he also maintained management of Duquesne. In 1988, he was hired by George Soros to replace Victor Niederhoffer at Quantum Fund. He and Soros famously "broke the Bank of England" when they shorted British pound sterling in 1992, reputedly making more than $1 billion in profits, in an event known as Black Wednesday. They calculated that the Bank of England did not have enough foreign currency reserves with which to buy enough sterling to prop up the currency and that raising interest rates would be politically unsustainable. He left Soros in 2000 after taking large losses in technology stocks ...
    According to Bloomberg News, on August 18, 2010, Druckenmiller announced the closing of his hedge fund "telling investors he'd been worn down by the stress of trying to maintain one of the best trading records in the industry while managing an 'enormous amount of capital.'" Duquesne Capital Management posts an average annual return of 30 percent without any money-losing year. His funds were down for about 5 percent when he announced his retirement in August. However, they had since erased the losses and closed with a small gain through successful bets that the market would rally in anticipation that the Federal Reserve would announce further "Quantitative Easing" to assist in reducing unemployment and avoid deflation.
    According to The Wall Street Journal, on August 18, 2010, Druckenmiller "told clients that he's returning their money and ending his firm's 30-year run, citing the 'high emotional toll' of not performing up to his own expectations." He indicated it was not easy to make big profits while handling very large sums of money.

    Link to Wikipedia Article

    Postscript: It’s clear to me that one of my money managers has absolutely no concept of what a bubble is. Dodge and Cox clearly doesn’t like to party. Their flagship domestic stock fund, DODGX, is down nearly 10% YTD. It’s negative over 1-year and has averaged just a sedate 5.2% annualized return over the past 3. “What mania?” they might be asking about now.
    :)
  • Tylenol, balloons and bubbles
    I imagine that bubble machine will see use in many business schools across the nation. :)
    I’d be curious what folks here been taking lately?
    I can buy four ounces of fresh ginseng for 15 bucks at the local Korean grocery. Steam it for three hours. Then dry it in the Arizona heat. Bingo. You've got ren shen.
  • Mid Cap Value Funds
    Could be an interesting fund, but seeing that it is "dynamic", it may not be what the OP is looking for. M* shows a significant style drift, from large cap growth in 2017 to mid cap blend (2018) to its current mid cap value. That's likely by design, as Invesco says it reweights its holdings based on where we are in the economic cycle.
    https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/product-detail?audienceType=Investor&ticker=OMFL
    FWIW, M* classifies the fund as large cap blend, and Lipper calls it multi-cap core. The turnover over the fiscal year ending June 2019 was 138%; the 83% that M* reports is for the two months July 2019-August 2019, according to the prospectus.
    http://hosted.rightprospectus.com/Invesco/Fund.aspx?cu=46138J619&dt=P&ss=etf
    It appears that the fund has four fixed portfolios, representing recovery, expansion, slowdown, and contraction phases in the economic cycle. So if the country remains in one phase of a cycle for a year, one should expect very little turnover (primarily reflecting changes in the Russell 1000). OTOH, if there's even one change of phase, there should be a significant turnover, as one portfolio is substituted for another. That would explain the high turnover rate.
    In terms of design, I'd prefer to see a smooth transition between phases. Aside from this, it is an interesting approach. The questions are how well matched the factor weightings are to the economic phases (i.e. whether stocks with those particular weightings will tend to do better in each of the phases), and how well the index identifies the current cycle phase we're in. Typically NBER takes several months to determine, retrospectively, that we have entered (or exited) a recession. This index must make similar determinations in real time.
    https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html
    "The current economic cycle/market condition category, which determines which factor configuration is applied, is derived from a rules-based methodology that relies on certain leading economic indicators and information regarding global risk appetite. The applicable category is provided to the Index Provider by Invesco Indexing in the form of a data signal (the “Signal”)." (prospectus)
  • Any news that prompted the market turnaround?
    Don't get to excited , futures down as 9:30 P.M.
    Derf
    Your comment has me wondering how many people here are trading versus how many are buying some sort of fund for a longer time period
    Awe shucks. I don’t see many playing a short game. A lot of us like to watch the action. Many, self included, have a predominately long term allocation we leave alone and also enjoy playing around the edges on occasion with maybe 5 or 10%. Frankly, when invested with fund houses in their products (as I am) there’s some pretty serious constraints on frequent trading - some stricter than others. So any attempt to do some fast in and out trading would hit a dead-end pretty fast.
    In an era of practically 0 return on cash, and little more on intermediate investment grade paper, if you can pocket a bit extra now and than making some smart short term bets, I see nothing wrong with it. I mean ... a one-day gain of 3% on a stock, ETF or mutual fund is a whole lot more than what that cash would generate over several years.
    I’m sure there are some traders here. Just don’t think it’s a substantial number.
  • Mid Cap Value Funds
    Take a look at the obscurely named: Invesco Russell 1000® Dynamic Multifactor ETF
    M*
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=OMFL
    ETF.com
    https://www.etf.com/OMFL
    PortfolioVisualizer
    https://tinyurl.com/omfl-at-pv
  • Defensive fund options
    IQDAX has a $100,000 minimum in general. Not sure if there are any brokerage platforms that offer a lower entry amt.