Interesting:https://ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2
I wonder what this means in the selloff if anything.

Linked below is Morningstar's Fair Value Chart. To see how the market has moved in respect to fair value during the past year click on the 1 year tab. Very interesting? Yes! So, if I buy now ... I'm thinking ... that I would be over paying based upon the metrics of this chart and it's mythodology.
With this, I await a better buying opportunity.
Interestingly, Old_Skeet's market barometer indicates that the S&P 500 Index is overbought at this time as well.
https://www.morningstar.com/market-fair-value

https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/etfs/601332/7-actively-managed-etfs-to-buy-edge
7 Actively Managed ETFs to Buy for an Edge
Actively managed ETFs are starting to blossom in popularity. Investors unfamiliar with the space can start with these seven active funds.
It has taken some time, but actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are finally gaining traction with investors.
Couple interesting ETF to look at. Anyone have a ny of these in portfolio or thinking adding?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2020/09/02/forget-pension-obligation-bonds-two-cities-areno-jokeleasing-their-streets-to-fund-pensions/#2703c9a12233
Forget Pension Obligation Bonds. Two Cities Are - No Joke - Leasing Their Streets To Fund Pensions.
It sounds preposterous, and the headline of a recent article here at Forbes by Marilyn Cohen is certainly eye-catching: “The Lunacy Of Using City Streets To Collateralize New Municipal Bond Deals.” And these aren’t just any municipal bond deals — two cities in California are issuing bonds with their own city streets as collateral to pay down their unfunded pension liabilities.
New novel ideas perhaps...others may find unique ways to pay for continuing increasing cities debts

Dows, sp500 may go up next few weeks... Maybe related long overdue correction or covid19 data improving and Techs got knocked down no support
Couple private bonds went up slightly +0.15 to + 0.25%
In two wks many people maybe crying double dip or W recovery. WE will see

What recovery is this today? Glad I rebalanced several weeks ago. My conservative index bond funds held up today, VBTLX +0.09%, VTABX +0.04%, VSBSX 0.0% while the balanced funds VWINX -0.6% and PRWCX -1.8%. Don't think this pull back is over yet.

I have one fund that was up slightly today - BCOIX (0.08%).
VUSFX, which I use in lieu of cash, was flat for the day.
My other funds were down -0.13% (DODIX) to -3.77% (VWILX).

Same here. Only one fund up: PTIAX. Overall, down -1.01% on the day.

Only 1 fund in the green. Price’s enhanced bond index fund (PBDIX) gained a bit. Oddly, my Latin America fund PRLAX held up better than most, falling only 0.42%. It’s been rocking up and down like a badly floundering boat for several days now. Hard to understand daily swings as great as 3% on that one. Precious metals fell a bit, but the miners held up better than broader market. PRWCX lagged my other balanced funds for a change. Something came across Bloomberg about those using put options (apparently to generate income and hedge equity exposure) taking a hit today. Not my cup of tea - but PRWCX plays in that area a bit.
The politicians don’t want this in an election year. Expect Congress will get back to the stimulus board if it lasts for long.

The vaccine 'promise' won't matter because at this point, not enough people are going to take it. feh. Wifey and I got our flu shots day before yesterday, but I won't get a Covid-19 shot at least until fall of 2021 and maybe not then. I no longer trust anything coming out of Washington and the FDA. Any vaccine they approve will be on a scale with injecting rat poison or drinking bleach. I did hear someone suggest paying Americans $1000 each to get the shot and this is actually a very good idea. You get immunization AND stimulate Aggregate Demand.

The COVID-19 vaccine will first made available to the frontline workers including the ER's doctors and nurses, firemen and police, teachers, and military personnel. Hopefully there is sufficient dosage for the general population. There are a number of vaccine candidates which passed Phase II trial on human safety and efficacy. Moderna and Pfizer are in Phase III testing now involving 30-50K patients. It will take time to sort out the data before they launch to make billions of dosages and distribute them to the general population. It is also likely several different vaccines will be available to ensure robustness of the immunization program. Question is can the manufacturers deliver the vaccines on a timely basis?
As I stated before i will take the COVID vaccine when It is available. We took the flu vaccines several ago. The coming fall and winter will drive people indoor which could make the COVID situation worse.

+1 old joe

@bee - I’m sorry for whatever role I’ve played in the political mudslinging. I try hard to resist, but occasionally something I read here or elsewhere just pushes me to the point of speaking up.
Urging 100% your supporters to cast two ballots? Any idea what kind of mayhem that would cause on election day as stressed-out poll workers try turning away throngs of angry people who showed up to cast their second ballot - on the instructions of the President nonetheless - some carrying guns? I fear for everyone’s safety. And all the poor struggling postal service needs is thousands of unnecessary ballots mailed by folks who intend to show up at the polls anyway. If you want to sow chaos in the election process, delay the results and cast doubt in everyone’s minds on the legitimacy, I can’t think of a better way to achieve it.
All good ideas for restricting or eliminating the political stuff. Bothers me too. Just saying ...

Why the big downturn today? Poor selling data, uncertainties in market, large unemployment numbers...?
Much needed overdue corrections? Will it go 10-15% lower?

I see the US market really "priced for perfection" and to stay up a lot of things have to go right.
I think only about a third of the SP stocks are up for the year and most of the gains are FAANMG. Consequently if anything happens to get people to stop paying 50 to 300 times earnings for these things, it will be all downhill.
The market is up because 1) Federal reserve says it keep rates at zero for years, therefore increasing the market multiple ( currently at dot.com levels) 2) Stimulus bill kept consumer buying up 3) Belief that an effective vaccine is soon to come
For this to continue we have to see
1) Earnings meet the baked in assumptions of $165 S&P 500 2021 earnings
and $185 2022
2) No delayed, double-dip recession ie no resurgence of Covid this fall with the flu. I think this requires a vaccine that is at least 70% effective and most people get it. This is unlikely by December. Still it will be years before Hotels and airplanes are back at 2019 levels.
3) Low inflation and continued Fed easy easy money. What if they finally wise up to the fact that zero interest rates do not increase employment, just inflate stock prices, leaving millions in the dust ? Look at "taper tantrum"
4) No major second Black Swan. Candidates shooting war in China, massive defaults in Chinese banking system ( all very possible) or something totally unexpected ie 9.0 earthquake Major hack taking down electrical grid etc etc
5) Major fight over close election with Trump getting support form the military to stay in office and blood in the streets, or military having to remove him in shooting war with right wing nuts

Agree with @davidmoran. The recovery is uneven so far. Airline industry is in trouble with continuing weak demand in August. United and American airlines asked for more $T$ bailout to slow down the layoff as the previous $ ran out.

United Airlines said Wednesday it expects to cut 16,370 jobs on Oct. 1, far fewer than the 36,000 it warned of two months ago, as suspense builds over whether Congress will extend relief for the struggling airline industry.

https://axios.com/united-airlines-layoffs-voluntary-leave-e4ae7003-9644-44cc-adca-4fea75993a65.html
American airline also posted similar level of layoff. These are the largest US airlines. It is likely there will be consolidation of that industry to perhaps 2-3 airlines. All the smaller ones will be bankrupt or merged with a stronger company by year-end.

Yield’s getting harder this year. Unless you can stand volatility via leverage perhaps in a CEF or something like XOM or XLE.

PIMIX is significantly leveraged as well. Over half the ER, 0.59% out of 1.09%, goes toward paying interest (per summary prospectus).
Borrowing securities rather than cash is another way to achieve leverage. In round figures, the fund is 2x long and 1x short in bonds (see M* portfolio page). (Contrast that with PDIIX, which doesn't short bonds, but gets its 133% net bond holdings by only borrowing cash.)
PIMCO funds in general make extensive use of derivatives. While derivatives can be used defensively, my sense is that PIMCO uses them aggressively, further increasing effective leverage. Though with PIMCO, it is always difficult to tell what they're doing.
Regarding what PIMCO is doing, I recently ran across this analysis of PIMIX. It takes an approach similar to what S&P does in analyzing mutual funds for its individual fund reports (or did, the last time I could find them years ago). It looks at how the fund behaves, regardless of what it actually holds. It tries to disentangle the different factors by accounting for the correlations among them ("multicollinearity").
https://www.markovprocesses.com/blog/solving-2019-pimco-income-fund-puzzle/
However, it says little about derivatives, other than they're hard to deal with directly:

Pretty much all of the top holdings are either futures or swaps. Fund data and research providers, like Morningstar, as well as most institutional investors, are not capable of netting those swap positions against thousands of bonds, some of which are not easily priced. It is worth noting that the sum of top 10 derivatives positions is negative 32% and, on top of that, the fund turns over its entire portfolio every other month (472% turnover), rendering intermittently disclosed holdings snapshots useless.

Rickrmf - option income in CC-type funds typically are classified as ROC, which makes it confusing since that's not considered a 'bad' return of capital. I think you know that many CEFs or MLPs that use ROC to sustain high divs/distributions -- that is 'bad' ROC and a red flag if it's an ongoing thing.
SWAN is interesting[1], and tbh NUSI also looks interesting to me for income-oriented NASDAQ exposure, and I might play with that a bit.
THLGX mentioned in this month's Commentary (the Alternate Funds discussion - it's in the charts) looks really interesting in terms of performance and stability, but I need to do add'l research on it before considering it as a SWAN-y holding. Doesn't seem to have lost much if anything in recent years' volatility and looed to have done better than SWAN (albeit at a higher price.)
[1] You could roll the same thing on your own if you wanted to, as its holdings aren't many and are easy to get: https://amplifyetfs.com/swan-holdings.html

Hi Rforno, yes, very I’m intrigued by NUSI, also DRSK. I think the focus articles on TMSRX make it attractive too. Any thoughts on best fit for a taxable account(not looking for income)? I’m having trouble understanding how options distributions are characterized. So far, I’m happy with SWAN.
Best of luck,
Rick

Howdy expatsp/all,
You pretty much list the biggies. However, I see some of these as givens.
1. The vaccine 'promise' won't matter because at this point, not enough people are going to take it. feh. Wifey and I got our flu shots day before yesterday, but I won't get a Covid-19 shot at least until fall of 2021 and maybe not then. I no longer trust anything coming out of Washington and the FDA. Any vaccine they approve will be on a scale with injecting rat poison or drinking bleach. I did hear someone suggest paying Americans $1000 each to get the shot and this is actually a very good idea. You get immunization AND stimulate Aggregate Demand.
2. 2nd Wave is a given because we're so damn dumb and with gridlock in DC, I see nothing in the way of additional stimulus.
3. Nancy becomes President on January 21. Seriously, you know damn good and well, that Trump is going to have to be cuffed and physically removed from the White House. Sorry, but I see blood in the streets. Let me be perfectly clear, it's been 52 years since Vietnam and I finally had to go buy a GD gun. I had to arm TF up and I'm not happy about it. And not because of ANTIFA, but because of the militias and nazi groups running around playing GI Joe. These scum are too stupid to become Police Officers and too chicken shit to enlist. It's time to disarm them and the rest of the country. Ban all assault weapons, high capacity magazines and silencers. Do it state by state by referendum and city by city. Oh, and start with the schools. If government buildings can be gun free, why not the children in school?
4. Eventually the dollars' reserve status goes away but maybe not in the immediate future.
5. feh. Liz Warren is our best hope at the Treasury.
6. Nope. They'll keep pumping air in the the balloon that's full of holes and until #4 comes to pass.
and 7. Something bad happening. The Black Swan event that we're not aware of yet. How about war with China? Trump is desperate and when an animal is cornered they can be very dangerous.
That all said, congratulations to all of you that have figured a way to ride this bull and make some money. A lot of money has been made. NOW PROTECT IT.
and so it goes,
peace and wear the damn mask,
rono

Added vanguard 2045 and wellington fund.
Paying uncle Sam -2019 taxation after attained Sept 1st Divs...Ouch

@FD1000 EAGG: 0.1%
SUSL: 0.1%
USSG: 0.1%

Nice to know. Include these as 401K choices and let investors decide what to do. I'm fine with that :-)