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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Steep Price Of Bond Flight
    Hi @hank and @Derf,
    Thanks for making comment on the number 47 as indeed as it turns out to be a most interesting number and when divided into 100 provides the quotient of 2.12765.
    The number 47 is said to be contained in Biblical Law.
    Something to think on? Yes.
    Have a great day!
    Skeet
  • Where to Invest $10K right now..5 Experts Chime in
    "...we asked five leading investors to share their best ideas on where to invest $10,000 right now. (It makes sense for smaller sums, too.) We first quizzed them back in June, when we also asked exchange-traded-fund analyst Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg Intelligence to choose ETFs that came closest to the strategies and themes they highlighted. Some of the experts also run mutual funds that employ their strategies.
    Among their summer favorites were out-of-favor emerging markets, and many ETFs tracking those markets have seen double-digit gains. How did our panel of experts do last quarter, exactly? Very well, thank you. Check out the results that follow each new entry below. For comparison, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was up 3.3 percent from June 30 to Sept. 30."

    how-to-invest-10k
    Experts and Tickers mentioned in Article:
    Barry Ritholtz:
    -DFCEX - IEMG or EEMV
    -VEMAX - VWO
    Sarah Ketterer
    -CIVIX - TDIV or DXJ
    Mark Mobius:
    -MCHI, EWZ
    Rob Arnott:
    -PXH, VGK, BKLN, EMLC, FEM or FNDE
    Francis Kinniry:
    -Use this $10K to re-balance your losers (re-balance your portfolio).
    -Consider replacing high costs funds with low cost etfs to lowering investment fee costs.
    -AOR
  • The Steep Price Of Bond Flight
    My comment has to do more with accommdating the retail investor more than big money investors and with this I'm thinking that the long term retail investor should be able to withdraw money from most any fund, at their will, without penalty once a holding period has been satisfied. The issue as I see it is big money moving in and out of funds so to speak with their "hot money." Perhaps, a lock up period is warranted for new money coming into funds and once the lock up period has been satisfied then withdrawals can be taken at the retail investor's will while big money would have to give sufficient notice before making large withdrawals and perhaps get paid with securities rather than cash. In this way, fund managers do not get blindsided with large redemptions without fair notice.
    One of the reasons that I own the number of mutual funds within my portfolio that I do (currently forty seven) is the it much easier to get $5,000 to $25,000 perhaps even $50,000 out in cash than it is to get half a million out and possibly get paid inkind with securities. I believe, payment inkind has happen to a few that post on the board from time-to-time. So for those that have large sums invested in only a few funds might begin to ponder a good withdrawl strategy or begin to think about spreading it around among a number of funds.
  • Warren Buffett's Decades Long Advice
    Hi Hank, Hi msf,
    Thanks for your comments, especially those most recently made.
    The active vs. passive management debate will remain a hot topic. While the overwhelming academic research concludes that passive is the winner on average and in the long haul, limited evidence suggests that active management can deliver superior returns and/or reduced risk over some periods. The secret sauce is to discover the right manager for the right timeframe.
    That's not an easy task; what worked in the past need not work in the future. Fund manager Bill Miller is a great example. He outperformed his benchmark for 15 consecutive years and just a few years later scored in the bottom 1% of all active managers. Things change.
    A successful active manager wins over some timeframe using a specific methodology that reflects his knowledge and his biases. Once again things like macroeconomic conditions change and the active manager is not flexible enough to either recognize the changes or to adjust his methods. That was Bill Miller.
    If you favor active fund management, you must actively evaluate active managers. That's tough work, but necessary to capture the small percentage of fund managers who do beat their benchmarks. It's a changing group since persistence is not one of their basic characteristics.
    Benchmarks are needed to challenge and test the quality of active fund management. For lhose funds that specialize in large companies, the S&P 500 Index seems to provide a respectable, albeit an imperfect measure.
    I did know that a committee controlled the firms represented by the Index, and that a few changes were made annually based on rules and judgments. I am not aware of the weightings given to the formulaic portion of the decision process and the heuristic portion.
    I am not adverse to having a human heuristic segment. For something as uncertain as company assessment and the stock markets, equations alone will never be perfect. But too much emotional heuristics can ruin a useful market tool. The balance is a difficult target, but the S&P 500 committee seems to have done an acceptable job. By rule, they must maintain a proper weighting in the 11 major sector categories. Nothing is ever perfect in the marketplace; a satisficing strategy must do.
    Best Wishes.
  • Warren Buffett's Decades Long Advice
    This is a bit of a sidetrack, but is spurred by jstr's use of S&P as a prototypical index provider.
    S&P's "indexes" do not have "systematic selection criteria", at least the way I would use that phrase: "entirely rules-based and containing no judgment".
    See, e.g. "What Is an Index" http://alo.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/index_5.pdf
    Unlike other index providers such as Russell, Wilshire, etc., Standard and Poor's has a human index committee that applies judgment in selecting securities for index inclusion. Notable is its criterion for removal: "lack of representation". This potential for subjective tinkering was out in full force at the peak of the dot com bubble:
    The S&P 500 is often mischaracterized as a passively managed index of large stocks, but in 2000, its managers became seriously aggressive -- adding (and subtracting) four new stocks each month, on average. In the process, the index was systematically stripped of small and mid-sized value stocks from Jan. 28 to Dec. 11 in favor of large-cap growth stocks -- largely from the technology sector, and at exactly the wrong moment.
    https://www.thestreet.com/story/1305526/1/make-a-bundle-on-the-sps-rejects.html
    More recently, S&P made rule changes not to improve how well its index represented the market or the index's investability, but to improve S&P's bottom line:
    In 2008 and 2009, S&P . . . tossed nine companies off the 500 for inverting. But four years ago [June 2010], S&P changed course, for business reasons. Companies were angry at being excluded, and index investors wanted to own some of the excluded companies. Moreover, S&P feared that a competitor would set up a more inclusive, rival index.
    http://fortune.com/2015/11/23/pfizer-dow-jones/
    Systematic selection criteria? Yeah, right.
  • Warren Buffett's Decades Long Advice
    The advent and growth of ETFs / index funds and the availability of funds that can focus on specific stock universe attributes in the 21st century, has validated / shed light on that ( Buffet's ) advice. Further improvement in computing power and growth of quantitative finance has also streamlined and improved the management process.
    Take the S&P Mid Cap growth index / ETF for example. The MDY ( S&P Mid Cap 400 growth ETF ) was launched when Buffet / BRK-A started to become noticed in the mainstream ( mid 1990's ). ( It appears that ) the Mid Cap index has specific, systematic selection criteria for management of the index. Reading literature ( shareholder letters, anecdotal evidence contained in books and articles ) on Buffet's methods seems to belie a somewhat idiosyncratic and haphazard process in position sizings and weightings, asset holding periods, and the occasional use of sophisticated "derivative" products ( this can be said for Icahn also ). If Buffet's "genius / greatness" has been reflected in BRK-A's share price, then a buy & hold of the "diversified index fund" ( Mid Cap 400 ) definitely has had an edge for a couple of decades and from different starting points. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Kv2UtpBp7OIK56ZzrkthnV1PDRUA9AmGS6hAmr3Tl6A/edit?usp=sharing
    Application of this simple quantitative tactical strategy for example, has produced further excess, risk adjusted returns vs. buy & hold https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WLB4hOP8P15O8b10_P4VgHuuBQHHke_c3XjwAjiFqio/edit?usp=sharing
    As the management industry migrates towards "passive" indexing, perhaps gone is the discretionary and esoteric based management style that once reigned in the 20th century ?
  • John Waggoner: Looking For Yield At A Fair Price? Try Preferred Stock From Closed-End Funds
    FYI: Looking for yield in a closed-end fund these days is like buying a pen at Tiffany's — you'll get what you're looking for, but you'll pay an awful lot for it.
    But the preferred stock offerings of many closed-end funds could be a lucrative way to get yield at a reasonable price.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20161014/FREE/161019955?template=printart
  • FInd Your Funds' Dirty Secrets With This New Tool
    FYI: Your mutual funds may have a dirty little secret, but someone has just published an exposé.
    In fact, according to the first carbon-footprint analysis of over $11 trillion in global funds and ETFs, all 10 of the world’s top asset managers have fund lineups with a higher average carbon footprint than an S&P 500 benchmark.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.fa-mag.com/news/find-your-funds--dirty-secrets-with-this-new-tool-29487.html?print
  • Warren Buffett's Decades Long Advice
    Hank asked, "In other words, do the instructions to his trustees also represent prudent advice on how all of us should invest?"
    Everyone that invests will have to pave their own road to riches but I believe that Mr. Buffett's advice is a solid bed on which to apply the final layer. In my own plan I disregard the bond fund advice and substitute that portion with my SS account. My stock holdings are roughly 85% US (half & half S&P 500 and others) and 15% foreign. We should remember that Warren's advice was a general recommendation for most (not all) investors. I venture to guess that over 50% of folks who contribute to a 401k or similar have no idea what they own or why they own it.
  • Top Small-Cap Quant Fund Takes A Scientific Approach
    Fond memories from the Way Back Machine
    01/22/2007 From M*
    Numeric Investors decided to get out of the mutual fund business. On Feb. 23, it will liquidate all of its retail mutual funds. Numeric is closing the funds because they compose only 3.5% of its business (about $450 million out of $13 billion), and three of the four funds are closed to new investors,
    This is a surprise and a real disappointment because the advisor runs some excellent quantitative funds, it has shown itself to be a shareholder-friendly shop, and many of these fund's strongest peers are closed.
    http://www.morningstar.com/advisor/t/42991190/fund-times-numeric-funds-to-liquidate.htm
    N/I Numeric Investors Small Cap Value
    NISVX (not valid )
  • Warren Buffett's Decades Long Advice
    Hi Guys,
    "My advice to the trustee couldn't be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard's.) I believe the trust's long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors — whether pension funds, institutions or individuals — who employ high-fee managers."
    That is a recent quote from Warren Buffett. Over many years he remains consistent in his investment recommendations. Here is a quote from his 1996 Shareholder Letter:
    "Most institutional and individual investors will find the best way to own common stock is through an index fund that charges minimal fees. Those following this path are sure to beat the net results [after fees and expenses] delivered by the great majority of investment professionals."
    I recently discovered a fine set of investment videos from an outfit in England. They practice what Buffett has been saying for decades for most investors. The presentation material is not very sophisticated, especially for most of MFO participants, but it includes many brief segments from famous US researchers. It's all about sensible investing which is the name of the firm that produced the video. Your enjoyment will most likely be tied to your preference for active or passive investing strategies. Here is a Link to one of their 1 hour videos:
    https://www.sensibleinvesting.tv/passive-investing-the-evidence
    Enjoy. Since I do a mix of both actively and passively managed mutual funds, I did enjoy it. I am slowly moving more of my funds in the passive direction.
    Best Regards.
  • BlackRock To Vanguard Earn ETF Win In Fund Liquidity Rule
    SEC Final Rules page: https://www.sec.gov/rules/final.shtml
    Perhaps the bigger item got buried - funds are now allowed to use swing pricing in times of stress (essentially impose redemption fees by passing through the cost of selling underlying securities to meet redemptions).
    Here's that SEC final rule (198 pages):
    https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2016/33-10234.pdf
    There's got to be more on the liquidity rule than is being reported, especially regarding Vanguard. Here's the SEC final rule (459 pages): https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2016/33-10233.pdf
    First, because ETFs would seem to have a liquidity problem similar to open end funds. When there is large selling pressure, authorized participants (AP) are supposed to swoop in, buy up the ETF shares being sold on the open market, and then sell the underlying securities at a profit. So even though the fund itself doesn't sell assets, the APs are expected to. if they don't (because of illiquidity) the ETF price could go into free fall.
    Second, the report says that this rule applies to funds that provide daily portfolio information. What sort of info? All ETFs provide indicative NAV and portfolio composition files, but they are not required to provide daily portfolios. In fact, Vanguard discloses its ETF portfolios only monthly.
    Third, Vanguard's ETFs are unique in that they are simply shares of an open end fund portfolio. Is this a back door way for Vanguard to avoid meeting liquidity requirements on its open end funds?
    P.S. No, I have not read the 650+ pages from the SEC.
  • (Re)introducing Capital Group's American Funds
    I was aware of the tax differences, but didn't mention it for a couple of reasons. One was that we weren't talking about tax-adjusted figures. The other was because the situation is more complex than you described in case 2 (where the fund pays the advisor).
    When funds skim money to pay for expenses, they first take that money first from interest, nonqualified divs, and possibly short term gains that would otherwise be distributed.
    If it has enough ordinary income to cover the advisor payments, then what happens is simply that your ordinary income divs are reduced by the amount of the payments. That's equivalent to a straight deduction against ordinary income. The NAV would not be affected by paying this additional cost.
    For example, if there's $5 of interest income/share available and the fund pays your advisor $4, then it distributes $1 of ordinary divs and the NAV drops $5. If it doesn't pay your advisor (case 1) then it distributes $5 of ordinary income to you, the NAV still drops by $5.
    If the fund reduces its cap gains distributions (rather than its ordinary income distributions) to pay the advisor, then again the NAV is unaffected but now you'll see your cap gains income (as opposed to ordinary income) reduced by the advisor fees. A less valuable income reduction.
    The NAV would be affected in the way you described only if the fund had to use assets that it would not otherwise have distributed. That is, if the portfolio did not generate enough income (via interest, divs, net gains), to cover costs, then the fund would have to use actual share value to pay the advisor.
    If the NAV were reduced (or its increase diminished), you would indeed be able to capture the expense as a capital loss (or reduced gain). This is a less valuable loss than the two above - first because its is a capital loss vs. a reduction of ordinary income, and second because you'll only recognize it when you ultimately sell your shares vs. a reduced distribution that is recognized now.
    So the tax impact in case (2) is quite variable, in both nominal value (ordinary income vs. cap gains) and present value (available in current tax year or only when shares sold).
    You are correct about the 2% AGI floor, so the value depends in part on what other misc. deductions you had (e.g. tax prep fees), and whether you are even itemizing.
  • (Re)introducing Capital Group's American Funds
    Suppose you have an advisor who charges 1% for managing your account and he gives you two choices for how he'll collect his fee:
    1) He'll periodically skim money from your account, let's say on a daily basis, or
    2) He'll delegate that to the fund company that will then skim money from the fund on a daily basis and remit it to your advisor
    I think you'd agree that your return is the same either way. Same tithing, same schedule, it's just the collection mechanism that's different.
    Case (1) is a wrap account with F-2 shares and a 1% fee. Case (2) is a commission-based account with C shares (1% 12b-1 fee, for the sake of argument all going to the advisor).
    One would probably expect the returns of those two classes of shares to be reported differently. Therein lies the problem. Your return is the same, the payment to your advisor is the same, and yet one class' returns are different from another, simply because of the payment mechanism.
    What this suggests to me is that to the extent possible, one should keep the payment mechanism out of the return data. I want the performance figures to represent how well the portfolio did, not what I paid or didn't pay to my advisor.
    We can keep the advisor fees (which as OJ noted can vary) out of the equation for A shares. Unfortunately, they're baked into the equation for B and C shares. Even worse, you've got the reverse problem with B shares - the performance figures understate actual performance. That's because B shares convert to cheaper A shares after some number of years, but the performance figures assume the same higher expenses ad infinitum.
    The 30th percentile estimate is likely in error, though I haven't checked. I'm guessing that when you multiplied the ending value by 94.25% (i.e. reducing account by 5.75%), you did not do the same for all the other front end load funds. Their performance figures should have been reduced as well.
    FWIW, M* does incorporate the impact of loads in its star ratings. That's why AMECX is 4*, but AMECX.lw is 5*.
  • Whiskey A Go Go: Make A Toast With This New ETF
    FYI: For investors wondering if a sin stocks exchange traded fund would ever be reborn, the next best thing may have come to town Wednesday with the debut of the Spirited Funds/ETFMG Whiskey and Spirits ETF WSKY, -0.72%
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/whiskey-a-go-go-make-a-toast-with-this-new-etf-2016-10-13-5464026/print
    MarketWatch Article Two On WSKY:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bottoms-up-new-etf-tracks-the-global-growing-whiskey-market-2016-10-12/print
  • More fallout from the DOL fiduciary rule
    When a combined $58 million in lobbying dollars from the financial industry are targeted to the Senate Finance Committee ( for 2016 PACs and individual campaigns), I do not have to think very hard about whether money talks. Like another poster at MFO, it doesn't take much like this for me to become cynical. It is such an obvious affront.