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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Very happy with Seafarer(SFGIX) but any other suggestions
    @prinx:
    SFGIX is currently the most attractive actively managed EM equity fund. But to avoid manager risk over the next 10-20 years with the additional kicker of a significant cost advantage, I would favor the inexpensive EEMV (0.25% ER vs. 1.15% net ER for SFGIX). FWIW, the index for this ETF has backtested very well:
    Backtest Data EEMV
    Also, even though SFGIX has outperformed EEMV since its inception on 2/15/2012, I have more confidence in the much longer backtested data since 2002 for the underlying index of EEMV.
    As always, I agree with Ted that investors need only one EM equity fund. If, by chance, you are a fiddler or optimizer, as I am, I would consider adding one country-specific EM ETF which is particularly undervalued to either SFGIX or EEMV. That ETF would be RSX according to this site that I monitor regularly:
    http://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php
    Kevin
  • Any thoughts on High Yield Muni Funds?
    @DanHardy OK, I got it--- supply of new issue munis increases in the Spring and tends to be a negative on muni prices (thereby possibly presenting a better buying opportunity on the pullback). Also, munis have their own yield curve; and with things the way they are now, if interest rates were to rise, the long end and not the short end is the area less likely to be affected (the opposite of Treasuries).
    http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2016/04/11/tactical-opportunities-in-muni-etfs-this-spring/
    First, given the steepness of the municipal bond yield curve, he thinks Market Vectors AMT-Free Interm Muni (ITM) makes sense since investors will benefit from higher yields in this steep part of the yield curve. But if the Federal Reserve starts to seem like it will raise interest rates again soon, the municipal yield curve is likely to flatten. At that point, he thinks it will make sense for investors to move out to a longer duration ETF like Market Vectors AMT-Free Long Muni (MLN).
    http://www.vaneck.com/blogs/muni-nation/utility-and-sensibility-april-2016/
    It is important to understand that seasonal shifts in supply and changes in the yield curve can impact a municipal bond’s total return and present investors with tactical opportunities. For the first quarter, according to Barclay’s, their Municipal Bond Index returned a positive 1.67%. Taking into consideration the seasonal supply/demand trends that have prevailed during the second quarter for the last 15 years suggest that favorable entry points may potentially become available.

  • Some Good News
    That big pop is what happens when a hyper-concentrated fund has a holding which spikes up 35%.
    It appears that Bruce's lawsuit to free up Fannie and Freddie may turn out well. It looks like our esteemed Congress knew that the two were solvent and in no trouble when they decided to abscond with their profits.
    And that is the first time I've ever used "abscond" in a sentence on the intertubes.
  • And The Best Small-Cap Fund YTD Is ?: What A Dfference A Year Makes: 2015 Down -(36.93)%
    It appears to be contrarian to making money. In your 5 year time frame, it has made about 60% less then the Russell 2000 index fund from Vanguard, NAESX.
    More and more I think it is a scam to buy any domestic large, mid or small cap fund that follows an Index. A managers ONLY contribution is to adequately distribute between asset classes, like a balanced, global or allocation fund - maybe. The day of finding the best domestic large cap or the best small cap manager that will beat the index consistently is a joke played on all of us here.
  • Some Good News
    Let me be the first to mention that Fairholme is up 7.51% today - and yes, it's for real.
    Bruce is getting pretty close to zero for 2016.
  • Hello ! Hello! Is There Anyone There ? Calling NO BS Ron Muhlenkamp: From White House To Out House
    Hi Guys,
    Charles, thank you for the atta-boy. Although I don’t always agree with the positions that Junkster advocates, I always respect his analysis and his clear communications of those positions. Indeed, good, actionable stuff.
    I overstated my position when I claimed I draw a completely blank slate when having access to superior investors. That is not true. Although I do not have direct contact, I do have access to the combined wisdom of both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. This tandem is gifted, talented investors with an impressive track record,. Mutual funds that I own have shares in their Berkshire Hathaway operation.
    Munger, like Buffett, learned from the wisdom of Benjamin Graham’s classroom lectures at Columbia. Here is a terrific Link that summaries some of that wisdom by way of their succinct sayings:
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/chanderchawla/2015/05/07/the-wit-and-wisdom-of-warren-buffett-and-charlie-munger/#be2c8599ba67
    The article is a collection of some of their wit and wisdom expressed at a recent conference, but gained across several decades of experience, talks, and papers. Enjoy.
    Best Wishes.
  • Oakmark Equity Income Fund - OAKBX
    @bee - Interesting graphic
    Can't help wondering ...
    How many investors sold BRUFX around 2002 and bought OAKBX based on OAKBX's preceding 5 years' outperformance?
    Than moved back into BRUFX around '07 based on its preceding 5 years' outperformance?
    Than dumped BRUFX again in early '09 in favor of OAKBX, after sensing that their fund's drawdown over the preceding 1-2 years (a period of financial panic) had been much greater peak to trough than that of OAKBX?
  • Clients Pull Cash From Sequoia Fund Investor, Get Stock Instead
    Moral of the story. Don't hold more than $250K of MF.
    Derf
    P.S. It's not a problem here !
  • Clients Pull Cash From Sequoia Fund Investor, Get Stock Instead
    To be clear - a stock, no matter how good or bad, is valued at the current market price. ISTM that liquidity/volatility is the most important factor in what stocks the fund hands over to its investors redeeming in kind. That's why pro-rata loses.
    Here's an extremely simplified example to demonstrate what I'm trying to say:
    Fund contains just two stocks A and B in equal value. Let's say 1,000 shares of A and 1,000 shares of B, both stocks priced at $100.
    Stock A is a thinly traded stock and any sale immediately triggers a 12% drop in stock price. Stock B is a huge company and its price barely moves when the shares in the fund are sold off. (1,000 shares are a drop in the bucket for this huge company).
    The fund gets redemption requests for 1/4 of the fund.
    If the fund distributes pro-rata (250 shares of A, 250 shares of B), it will still have a 50/50 mix of A and B. Because the investors are busy selling off their shares, A will drop in value by 12%. So the fund's total value (and NAV) will drop by 6% (half the fund is in A).
    If the fund distributes just A shares, then it's left with 1/3 in A shares (500 shares), and 2/3 in B shares (1,000 shares). Now when the investors sell off their A shares, the fund's A shares (1/3 of the fund) will drop by 12%. So the fund's total value will drop by just 4%, rather than the 6% had it distributed pro-rata.
    The redeeming investors are the ones that are disproportionately hurt - instead of getting a 50/50 mix of stock (that would drop 6% as they tried to sell the shares), they got all A shares that dropped 12% in value as they hit the market.
  • Oakmark Equity Income Fund - OAKBX
    BRUFX vs OAKBX
    Since OAKBX inception... a picture is worth a thousand dollars (minimum investment):
    image
  • Q&A With Bill Gross: Why Interest Rates Must Rise
    @MFO Members: One of my core holding for income is one of Bill's recommendation NLY. They just purchased Hatteras Mortgage that bodes well for future earnings, and with a 11.5% yield should be given serious consideration.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • MFO Premium Ratings Updated Through March 2016
    I find VWINX especially impressive because, for a notional 35/65 fund, plus or minus --- meaning the sort of thing many of us would not consider, certainly not in our younger days --- it does so well equaling or beating (since the early 1990s) higher-equity funds like FPURX and GLRBX. Remarkable. All longtime Boston managers, too, and nothing to do w/ Fidelity or State St or Hancock or any of the usual suspects. I think I've crossed social paths with only one Wellington staffer in all the decades I've been out here.
  • MFO Premium Ratings Updated Through March 2016
    Ratings are updated monthly on our MFO Premium site. Its MultiSearch tool includes all share classes, 21 evaluation periods, and 50 screening criteria. The March update comprises ratings on 9,296 US mutual funds and ETFs (27,307 all share classes), based on Lipper's Data Feed Service.
    Looking through some of our Pre-Defined Screens ...
    Among the Best Performing Rookies: AQR Equity Market Neutral R6 (QMNRX, Alternative Equity Market Neutral), NWM Momentum (MOMOX, Flexible Portfolio), 361 Global Long/Short Equity Y (AGAWX, Alternative Long/Short Equity), Catalyst Macro Strategy I (MCXIX, Alternative Global Macro), and ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats (REGL, Mid-Cap Core).
    A little further down this list is LSV US Managed Volatility Inst (LSVMX, Multi-Cap Value). LSV is short for Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny ... three professors that started Chicago-based LSV Asset Management in 1994. They now offer six mutual funds, including three rookies and one Great Owl:
    image
    Among short list of Dual Great Owl and Honor Roll Funds: T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX, Mixed-Asset Target Alloc Growth), John Hancock Capital Appreciation Value (Lipper ID B24T, Mixed-Asset Target Alloc Growth), Boston Trust Asset Management (BTBFX, Mixed-Asset Target Alloc Growth), Gavekal KL Allocation Inst (GAVIX, Flexible Portfolio), Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv (VWINX, Mixed-Asset Target Alloc Consv), and Vanguard/Wellington I (VWELX, Mixed-Asset Target Alloc Growth).
    image
  • Hello ! Hello! Is There Anyone There ? Calling NO BS Ron Muhlenkamp: From White House To Out House
    Hi Guys,
    This is a tricky task for me. To paraphrase, I come to bury Ron Muhlenkamp, not to praise him, yet I admire the man.
    Both my wife and I have separately talked with Ron on a number of occasions. We both like the man as a person and as a fund manager. He is well informed about the market conditions, dedicated to the investor’s task at hand, articulates his decisions in a fundamentally convincing manner, and practices a conservative investment approach. Basically, he is a smart investor who applies his farming management experiences to growing investments. He uses plenty of farm analogies in his newsletters.
    But in today’s marketplace, being smart is just not enough. The investment world is populated by smart folks. All these (us) smart folks neutralize one another to cancel our perceived advantages.
    That’s what happened in baseball such that it is highly unlikely that the sport will ever again record a 400 batting average over a season. Ted Williams was the last to do so, at least partially because the depth and talent of pitching staffs have remarkably increased and position defensive skills have greatly improved.
    In Michael Mauboussin’s writings, he constantly makes the case that investment rewards are the sum of a skill component and a luck component. With skill neutralizing itself because of the competency and resources of the professional investor class (which now dominates the shares traded), all that remains is luck. Given that luck is unpredictable, over time it facilitates a reversion-to-the-mean grip as measured by performance.
    Hence, although Muhlenkamp did very well early in his career, sadly, he has suffered an extended reversion-to-the-mean. A similar fate has finally befallen on the Sequoia Fund.
    Even guys like Bill Ruane, who benefited from the wisdom of Benjamin Graham’s teachings at Columbia University, are not immune to that relentless reversion law. It is not uncommon that dynasties crumble in the investment universe. The timing of that event is nearly impossible to project, except perhaps for that rare individual who possesses extraordinary skill that overshadows semi-persistent luck.
    There are not many of those superior guys available to us. My list is completely blank. Therefore, although I suspect that MFOer Junkster’s estimate is a bit too extreme at the 99.5% level, I too believe most of us would do much better investing in low cost Index products.
    For the record, we have never owned any Muhlenkamp funds.
    Best Wishes.
  • MFO Fund Ratings Updated Through 1Q 2016
    Chip posted our updated ratings on the Search Tools pages last night, thank you.
    Quick look shows ...
    All three CGM funds are on the Three Alarm list. As are both Fairholme's equity funds (FAIRX and FAAFX). Sequoia (SEQUX) is not yet ... it has two alarm bells.
    bee's fav Bruce (BRUFX) is on the Honor Roll. As is Matthews Asia Dividend Inv (MAPIX), T Rowe Price's Capital Appreciation (PRWCX), and Vanguard's Balanced Index Inv (VBINX), Value Index Inv (VIVAX), Wellesley Income Inv (VWINX), and Vanguard/Wellington I (VWELX).
    Remind me again why we should not just invest in VBINX and forget about it?
    A little more here ... ignoring survivorship bias, there are 4,856 US funds and ETFs that have been around since the start of current full market cycle in November 2007. Across these 8 plus years, the absolute worst performer is iPath Exchange Traded Notes Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex Total Return ETN Series A (GAZ) at -47.6% return annually ... down 99% or so from peak. Wretched! The best is Biotechnology UltraSector ProFund Inv (BIPIX) at +18.1% annually.
    VBINX is at +5.6% annually, which is better than 80% of all other choices. Hmmm ... I'll offer shipwreckedandalone's post VBINX.
    FWIW, Vanguard 500 Index Inv VFINX also returned +5.6% over this period. As has PIMCO Total Return III Inst (PTSAX), Voya Corporate Leaders Trust (LEXCX), and James Balanced: Golden Rainbow Retail (GLRBX).
    The just over four year old Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income Inst (SIGIX) remains a Great Owl fund, besting its peers by 8.2% since inception. Also on the GO list are Gavekal KL Allocation Inst (GAVIX), Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Inst (GPGIX), RiverPark Short Term High Yield Inst (RPHIX), FMI International (FMIJX), Pear Tree Polaris Foreign Value Small Cap Inst (QUSIX), Oberweis International Opportunities (OBIOX), Lifestyle Conservative Inst (TCSIX), TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (TTFS), Akre Focus Inst (AKRIX), Zeo Strategic Income I (ZEOIX), Scout Low Duration Bond (SCLDX), Queens Road Small Cap Value (QRSVX), PIMCO Short Asset Investment Inst (PAIDX). All these funds have been profiled by David and can be found on the MFO Dashboard.
  • Hello ! Hello! Is There Anyone There ? Calling NO BS Ron Muhlenkamp: From White House To Out House
    Ron is an "expert" and very articulate and knowledgeable. So how could he have possibly lost money for you over the past 10 years. 99.5% of investors would be best served in a domestic index fund from Vanguard.
  • Hello ! Hello! Is There Anyone There ? Calling NO BS Ron Muhlenkamp: From White House To Out House
    ( Ron is working hard for you ! Right !)
    (From Muhlenkamp Website)
    We are professional investment managers. We are not accountants, auditors, brokers, custodians, financial planners, or tax experts. We do not file tax returns, prepare legal documents, or churn out black box financial plans. We seek to maximize total returns, after taxes and inflation, to our clients by taking advantage of the opportunities provided when markets periodically misprice assets.
    Our motto is “intelligent investment management” to emphasize that we remove the emotion from investing. We might also be described as “no BS” or “common sense” investment managers—you get the idea. Investing other peoples’ money is a rational profession and we apply ourselves to it on a continuous basis.
    We invest money for people who want their money to work as hard for them as they’ve had to work for it—and who want their money to grow over periods of time best measured in years and generations. Our clients and shareholders hire us to help protect what they have, help make it grow, and help ease their minds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Let's See How Hard Ron Is Working For You: MUHLX Performance:
    15 Years 92 Percentile, 10 Years 100 Percentile, 5 Years 99 Percentile, 3 Years 99 Percentile, 1 Year 98 Percentile, YTD 99 Percentile. At least Ron your consistent.
    M* Snapshot MUHLX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/muhlx/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot MUHLX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/MUHLX
    MUHLX Is Ranked #226 out of #483 (LCB) Funds By U.S. News & World Report)
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-blend/muhlenkamp-fund/muhlx
    Larry Swedroe 2011 Article:
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/does-muhlenkamp-add-value/
  • Q&A With Bill Gross: Why Interest Rates Must Rise
    JPC is up almost 3% at the Monday open, 325k shares traded, more than average daily volume in the first 15 minutes. Bill the G. must still have some influence!