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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Any thoughts on High Yield Muni Funds?
    Total return charts are the only way to go with bond funds as they include reinvested dividends. Price only charts for bond funds don't *remotely* begin to paint an accurate picture. Don't mind me, just one of my pet peeves. I recall Gundlach saying on CNBC late last summer how junk bonds (JNK) were making 4 to 5 year lows. Nothing could have been further from the truth as he was just looking at a price only chart and completely ignoring dividends.
  • Any thoughts on High Yield Muni Funds?
    Macro View
    The Global Liquidity Trap Turns More Treacherous

    April 07, 2016 Global CIO Commentary by Scott Minerd © 2016 Guggenheim Partners,
    As options for further QE diminish, negative rates have become the shiny new tool kit of monetary policy orthodoxy.
    If Dr. Draghi and Dr. Kuroda do not get the outcome they want from their QE prescriptions—which is highly likely—then more negative rates will be on the way.
    It would not be a surprise to see the overnight rates in Europe and Japan go to negative 1 percent or lower, which will in turn pull down other rates along their respective yield curves.
    Negative rates at these levels would make U.S. Treasurys much more attractive on a relative basis, driving yields even lower than they are today.
    If the European overnight rate were cut to minus 1 percent from its current level of negative 40 basis points, German 10-year bunds would be dragged into negative territory and we could see 10-year Treasurys yielding 1 percent or less.
    https://guggenheimpartners.com/perspectives/macroview/the-global-liquidity-trap-turns-more-treacherous
    @DanHardy
    As @Junkster has observed,High Yield Muni's may be a bit pricey here.But an investor has to measure the possible tax advantages against current risks,I'm going to see my tax accountant tomorrow and I think that subject will come up.
    Closed End Option
    Nuveen Municipal High Income Opportunity Fund Price Premium +1.37% to N A V 52 Wk Avg -0.42%
    NMZ Distribution Rate
    Market (As of 04/06/2016) 6.48% Seeks to provide:
    Attractive monthly tax-free income
    image
    Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nmz/stock-chart#ixzz45CK2V9m5
    E T F Option Div/yield Monthly /4.47%
    SPDR Nuveen S&P High Yield Municipal Bond E T F Stock Chart (E T F)
    HYMB
    imageimage
  • M *: It's Flowmageddon!
    This is actually pretty stunning. I'd bet Russell Kinnel did a double-take, if not a triple, on some of these.
    From a Barron's blog note on this report:
    Each year, editors at Morningstar pick the best 500 funds from the universe of roughly 8,000 that they cover and create a list known as the Morningstar Mutual Fund 500. Nearly half of these funds have seen at least a 10% decline in assets under management in the 12 months ended February. Some 61 have seen at least a 25% drawdown, while another 18 have seen at least a 40% reduction in assets. Here’s Kinnel:
    “If we had just endured a brutal bear market, then the wave of redemptions would be par for the course. But this comes after a tremendous equity rally and therefore is unprecedented.”
    http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2016/04/07/unprecedented-outflows-from-u-s-stock-funds-could-leave-remaining-investors-holding-the-bag/?mod=BOLBlog
    Of course, doesn't this suggest just how little worth a great many investors find in M* recommendations? :)
  • RPHYX downgraded by Morningstar (to three stars)
    ------ M* PORTFOLIO ALERT = RPHYX & FPACX
    Portfolio Name: all
    04/05/2016
    FPACX: FPA Crescent
    The Morningstar Star Rating for this fund has changed from 4 stars to 5 stars. For details, click here
    RPHYX: RiverPark Short Term High Yield Retail
    The Morningstar Star Rating for this fund has changed from 4 stars to 3 stars. For details, click here
  • Any thoughts on High Yield Muni Funds?
    Junk Sovereigns ?? A Real Reach?
    Markets | Thu Apr 7, 2016 4:46pm EDT
    After 15 years, Argentina set for bond market return
    By Joy Wiltermuth
    Now it will hold a five-day roadshow in the UK and the US as it preps a new bond expected to raise $12 billion - or more - to help pay off holdouts who had rejected a debt restructuring.
    Finance Secretary Luis Caputo and Undersecretary Santiago Bausili will each lead teams meeting with investors in London, Boston, New York, Washington and Los Angeles.
    Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JP Morgan and Santander are arranging the meetings, but few other details were immediately available.
    "The dealers on it are keeping it hush-hush until they are ready to come to market," said Sean Newman, a senior portfolio manager at Invesco Fixed Income.
    One of the lead banks told IFR that investors had not yet been given any information about the ultimate size of the deal or the potential currencies of issuance.
    At US$12bn, the transaction would be the largest ever from an emerging markets borrower, according to Thomson Reuters data.
    "It does mean something really huge for Argentina," said Bianca Taylor, a senior sovereign emerging markets analyst at investment management firm Loomis, Sayles & Company.
    "They are back in the game with the curing of this longstanding issue with the holdouts, and they once again have access to the foreign capital markets."
    One trader in New York said he had heard yields whispered in the 7.5 percent range, but said 8.5 percent on a 10-year bond was a more feasible target given the current climate.
    But Taylor said a useful comparable would be a Brazil 10-year currently trading at 6.13 percent.
    "The talk of 7.5 percent seems rich for a country still in a balance-of-payments crisis and just coming out of default."
    In addition, after being unable to raise debt abroad for so long, Argentina might well come to market with a debt sale larger than US$12 billion in order to replenish its coffers and plug at least some of its fiscal deficit.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-bonds-idUSKCN0X42O6
    @DanHardy You're not the only one expecting low rates to remain for some time.
    Yield Curve Madness
    Posted on April 6, 2016 by David Ott Acropolis Investment Management
    ,,yield on the 10-year US Treasury hit 1.73 percent. After starting the year at 2.24 percent, the benchmark yield dropped to 1.63 percent when the stock market bottomed out on February 11th and then climbed to 1.98 percent before falling again.
    As low as your yields are today, they are among the highest in the developed world, as the chart below shows. The chart includes the G7 countries (with the benchmark eurozone rate representing Germany, France and Italy), Switzerland and Australia (each representing the highest and lowest rates in the developed world).
    image
    This chart is striking for at least three reasons. First, the overall level of rates is just appallingly low across the world. The idea that the highest rates are still a paltry 2.5 percent is troubling.
    Second, and even more bothersome, is that three of the curves are negative all the way out to 10 years. There are other countries with negative yields like Denmark, but the idea that the euro benchmark curve is negative is striking.
    Finally, there are only three ‘normal’ yield curves, where rates rise as the maturity goes out further into the future. The US has the steepest curve, although it’s far flatter now than it was six months ago.
    http://acrinv.com/yield-curve-madness/
  • RPHYX downgraded by Morningstar (to three stars)
    @David &Derf: All I have to say is ....................!
    Regards,
    Ted
  • M *: It's Flowmageddon!
    FYI: Something big is happening.
    A striking 18 Morningstar 500 funds suffered outflows of at least 40% of assets under management in the trailing 12 months ended February 2016, 61 shed 25% or more, and 168 had outflows of 10% or more.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=747879
  • RPHYX downgraded by Morningstar (to three stars)
    Right, the change simply reflects the fact that the average high-yield bond fund made 2.5% in the first quarter while RPHYX made 1%. As it turns out, this fund has virtually nothing in common with the average high-yield fund (the correlation between the two is 0.09), so its star ratings - high or low - are perpetually misleading.
    David
  • Snowball's great commentary
    A curious juxtaposition - a completely liquid MMF (even more liquid than a savings account) and a CD with a redemption fee (except at maturity).
    Personally, I prefer I-bonds to 1 year CDs. What I give up in short term liquidity (no redemptions in the first year) I gain in a better rate, inflation protection, state tax exemption, potential to defer taxes for years (until redeemed), and greater safety (theoretical only) than an FDIC-insured CD.
    - I bonds have no redemption fee once held for 5 years, so if one is expecting to roll over CDs, holding the I bond is slightly easier and more liquid over the long term.
    - The FDIC is not officially backed by the full faith and credit of the US government; savings bonds are treasury securities that have this backing.
    One can purchase $15K of I bonds/year per SSN. Current yield is 1.64%.
  • Any thoughts on High Yield Muni Funds?
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/puerto-ricos-house-approves-moratorium-052018350.html
    I just saw this. I think this is priced into the market. And I think ETFs like HYD and mf like NHMAX do not have any Puerto Rico exposure.
  • Any thoughts on High Yield Muni Funds?
    Aren't you a little late to the party? They have been on a tear since January 2014. That is when they were a buying opportunity and returned in the mid to high teens. The trend continued into 2015 and remains intact YTD. If you think Treasury yields will stay low or go lower junk munis will be fine. They may even be fine if Treasury yields rise a bit here. I have about 35% in NHMRX in an overall scattered (for me) nest egg of junk corps, emerging markets debt, and bank loan. Since I have never met a rich technician I don't have much use for most technical indicators. But on a short term basis, the 14 day RSI on the junk munis (and for that matter the bank loans) is severely overbought. If oil is to continue it's move up and equities hit new all time highs I would think that junk corps and emerging market debt would be the place to be.
  • Snowball's great commentary
    Good clear questions. Let's see if I can provide equally clear answers ...
    1. Here's a three part answer:
    a) Core funds (see also answer #3 below for explanation of core accounts):
    • Vanguard gives no choice, there's only Vanguard Fed MMF (VMFXX)
    • Fidelity. Pick the highest yielding one. They're all government paper, so I don't see a great virtue in getting a pure-treasury one (unless state taxes come into play).
      • Grandfathered core funds: FDRXX was converted to a government fund[video link]; not available as a core fund for new accounts. 6x the yield of Fidelity's other options (0.06% vs. 0.01%).
      • Non-grandfathered core funds: Pick SPAAX (non-Treasury) over FZFXX (Treasury). Both yield 0.01%, but there's still a microscopic difference; last divs were $0.000008592 vs. $0.000008494.
    b) Non-core funds:
    • Vanguard: You've got a choice of two: Fed MMF (see above), and Treasury MMFVUSXX. As explained above, I'd go with non-Treasury (slightly higher yield, virtually no risk).
    • Fidelity: Cash Reserves FDRXX; as above, 6x the yield of other options.
    c) Link to outside banks:
    Internet banks yield around 1% with no redemption fees, and my experience with EFT transfers to Fidelity (at least with some banks) is that I have access in 24-48 hours, which may or may not be sufficient. Note that bank savings (and MM) accounts come with a legal requirement (Fed Regulation D) that they can hold your money for up to seven days. This rule has been around for decades.
    2. Money in a brokerage account (from sale of securities or anything else) first goes to your core account (see #3), so in this sense, the possibility of the cash "automatically" going into a non-government fund or similar is nonexistent.
    That aside, I think you're too concerned about what will happen with prime funds. Stock prices (crashing or otherwise) don't directly affect a company's ability to service its debt. If the company is sound, cash flow positive, it will be servicing its bonds regardless of what the company is worth.
    What happened with Reserve Primary Fund (breaking a buck) was a confluence of several factors, plus mass panic (bank run):
    - The fund was aggressively managed for yield and loaded up on Lehman Bros. paper, creating a single point of failure. Fidelity and especially Vanguard funds are conservatively managed.
    - The Reserve (the fund company behind Reserve Primary) did not have assets to prop up its MMFs (since these were its whole business).
    Many fund families have provided financial support to prevent their funds from breaking a buck. (NYTimes: "[In 2008 alone] big banks and fund management companies have pledged more than $10 billion to rescue affiliated money funds that were caught holding mortgage market securities that were deteriorating rapidly in value.")
    Fidelity and Vanguard certainly have the resources and motivation to do so if it comes to that.
    - Institutions started pulling money out of Reserve Primary as soon as they got a whiff of trouble, and others followed. This exacerbated the situation. The Treasury stepped in an guaranteed existing cash in MMFs (but not new cash) to stanch flows at other funds,; in 1929 FDR imposed a four day bank holiday.
    Liquidity constraints (redemption fees and redemption gating) are now in place to serve the same purpose of preserving order and liquidity. Fidelity's video on fees and gates.
    3. A core/settlement/transaction account is the place through which all your money flows. Think of it as your checking account at a brokerage. That core account may have a sweep feature, where spare cash is "swept" nightly into one or more other accounts. That could be simply for greater protection (e.g. Fidelity's sweeps into banks yield just 0.01%, even less than some of their core MMFs), or it could be for yield. The receiving account could be one or more banks, or a different MMF.
    For example, Schwab has a sweep option to move cash into MMFs. It is eliminating this option as of June 1. Your cash (i.e. your core account) will now remain as a general liability of the brokerage (Schwab One Interest, SIPC coverage), or get swept into banks. Fidelity's equivalent to Schwab One Interest is called Fidelity Cash FCASH.
    Fidelity's CMA brokerage account (here's the account agreement) will not sweep money into bank accounts if you reside outside the country. For these accounts, the cash remains a general liability of Fidelity. Similarly, some other types of accounts such as inherited IRAs cannot sweep into banks (but do provide core MMF options).
    Lots of possibilities and combinations. The basic distinction remains - core is "checking", sweep is "automatic shadow account'.
    I'd also mentioned a sweep-like feature that Fidelity provides. It will use your "position" (non-core) MMFs as sources of money for expenses (check writing, purchasing securities, etc.). Same idea as banks using savings accounts as a "checking plus" feature. So there's a sweep, but it's only one way. Here's Fidelity's video on how this works.
    4) No conspiracy theories allowed :-) The recent changes don't have any obvious effect on Treasury MMFs, so whatever they were yielding before is what they'll yield going forward. MMFs tend to charge management fees around 30-40 basis points, which is why these MMFs yield nothing. (The fund companies have been waiving fees to keep the net yields above zero.)
    If anything, the fund companies have been fighting the new regulations (as they typically fight any regulation, not appreciating that sometimes eating your vegetables is good for you). There was strong lobbying against these changes.
    5) Interesting question. I haven't looked into it.
  • David Snowball's April Commentary
    Hmm. I too assumed it must be plain hard, but when I just compared IWM with FLPSX and FCNTX over 1/3/5/10/15y, plus start 02 and 08, it sure looks like a piece of cake.
  • T Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund
    Mike: Here's a Barron's article from a year ago that offers insight into this PM. As an owner of PRHSX, I'm confident in the abilities he brings to the portfolio. JMHO.
    http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424053111904703704579507953523415572
  • DoubleLine Global Infrastructure Fund
    Thx, heezsafe for the useful info and your work on this. And your spot on re difference between this DL product vs. GLFOX, which I happen to own, as do others here. The N class BTW is BILTX.
    Concerning the fund macro, here is how the separate account strategy was constituted at the end of the 4th qtr. 2015 based on the pitch book and portfolio strategy I was able to obtain. It may offer some idea of how the OEF might be invested --FWIW.
    Portfolio Strategy
    36% project bonds
    28% structured products
    23% corp. bonds
    8% loans
    5% cash.
    Portfolio Sectors
    Electric Utilities & Power 29%
    Transportation Equipment 22%
    Renewables 14%
    Transportation 9%
    Energy 8% (E&P - Upstream Assets 23%; Pipelines - Midstream Assets 77%)
    Hospitals 7%
    Water Utilities 4%
    Telecommunications 4%
    Credit Quality
    Investment Grade 84%
    High Yield 11 %
    Cash 5%
    Geographic Region
    North America 73%
    Latin America 18%
    Western Europe 2%
    Middle East & Africa 2%
    Cash 5%
    (The geographic allocations are significantly different than that of GLFOX.)
    Keep us posted with any info you come across.
  • Snowball's great commentary
    Thanks. Combining both threads.....
    1. Which Money Market would you recommend if I choose to have a fund a)with no liquidity constraints and b)that is not required to float for both Fidelity and Vanguard?
    I assume FDRXX for Fidelity ? For example, does Vanguard Fed MM yielding 0.30% meet both of those requirements? It is not classified as prime in the link you provided.
    2. My thoughts are that if these two requirements are NOT met, that during market melt downs it is probable (for anyone selling stocks) the proceeds from the stock sale in a retail brokerage account will be placed into a MMF whereby a dollar put into that MMF might only give you back .96c. IOW's stock market distress would equal MMF distress and possibly too late to convert without taking a loss in the MMF (the investor knows at the point of sale of the stock that his MMF is in trouble too). Double whammy.
    3. What is difference between a core account and a sweep account?
    4. Usually these type changes are profitable for some unknown party with strong lobbying support. How could there be no MMF available that meets the two requirements in my #1 above that would not yield closer to the current 3 month Treasury at .29% if that treasury is supposedly the safest investment known to mankind?
    This assumes your answer to #1 provides no other option other than FDRXX at 0.03%.
    5. I would assume all 401k accounts with an Income Fund MMF option will need to add those two requirements as an option for ultra conservative investors? Some 401k's held Reserve Fund in 2008-09 as their supposedly safe Income Fund option when they broke the buck. Reserve ended up eating the loss but for some time it was undecided which party was going to take the loss. Bad business.
  • Vanguard Admiral Class
    Some time ago, it seemed that Vanguard stopped offering Admiral shares through all brokerages. Since then, Admiral shares have started reappearing at some brokerages, e.g. TDAmeritrade.Scottrade.
    Keep in mind that some Vanguard funds may be closed unless purchased directly through Vanguard, e.g. Wellington.
  • DoubleLine Global Infrastructure Fund
    @bee no, this will be an infrastructure debt fund, not a stock eq. fund. Not comparable but might (might) make for a "nice pairing." :)
    @openice Thanks for keeping eye out. DoubleLine did a post-filing amendment to their original SEC application, basically moving the proposed date at which the prospectus would be activated out to March 30, so I've been watching for it and no news on the DL sites yet. Maybe it's not such a bad thing they're making us wait? You just know they've been running it in separate accounts for about a year, so why the tease? I'm most interested in seeing the macro of the fund (esp. credit distribution, US vs. non-US) and not so much a holdings list.
    Looks like M* has things all set up and ready to roll for the fund. BILDX is symbol for the I shares; Damien Contes and Andrew Hsu listed as co-managers, with an inception date of 4/1/16. Pretty reasonable e.r. of circa 0.65 for BILDX and 0.90 for the N shares when they're offered (difference being the beloved 12b-1).
  • AMG SouthernSun Small Cap Fund to reopen to new investors
    I've owned this fund for several years - you have to have a strong stomach for it since it's a concentrated fund and has huge up and down swings - it'll go a year or two as the top ranked fund in its category, then it'll have a year or two where it's the worst. It was ranked 96th in 2014 and 98th in 2015; year to date 2016 it is 1st - go figure!