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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Investors Favor Money Markets Over Stock and Bond Funds: Morningstar
    Hi @hank
    OK, finished some early chores and coffee gone.
    The numbers from the posted link seem large, but in the overall; may not mean much when related just to the IRA and 401K holdings (i didn't check 403b, but this amount is likely very large, too)
    So, here's some info from ICI.org as of mid-year, 2019:
    --- IRA total assets = $9.7 TRILLION
    --- 401k total assets = $5.9 TRILLION
    Secondary info reports total individual retirement market assets = $29.8 TRILLION, although I don't have time to chase this data breakdown.
    Obviously, the numbers in the link are interesting; but not of significant value to cause me to change my ways as of today.
    At least, some form of a value measuring benchmark info was available.
    ADD: some of the flow to MM accounts likely can be attributed to required minimum distributions from traditional IRA accounts before Dec. 31
    Take care,
    Catch
  • JENSX
    Look at the post directly above yours called 2019 Capital Gains Distributions. December is distribution season. It didn't really drop 7%. You will receive a dividend or gains payout for much or all of that amount.
  • Investors Favor Money Markets Over Stock and Bond Funds: Morningstar
    ... "who or what" does the term "investor" refer to in the linked article ...
    *@Catch22 - I don’t know if this answers your question or not - but my read was that M* bases that conclusion on their tracking of U.S. mutual fund flows during 2019. They see a lot of $$ flowing into money market funds. I’d presume that’s largely individual / personnel investing as opposed to institutional. You raise a good point, however. Most major fund groups offer “institutional” class money market funds as well which conceivably may have distorted their conclusions.
    A couple other points: Equities have soared in value, so there’s a lot of rebalancing going on. And that alone causes inflows into money market funds. The other point is that for wealthy or better off investors, the gains may be coming from individual equity holdings, while the profits from those individual holdings may still make their way into money market funds.
    Don’t know what % of investors invest through hedge funds (likely a small %) - but there’s a very large pool of $$ sitting in those. The workings of hedge funds aren’t nearly as transparent as for mutual funds. I did check to determine whether ETFs were considered in M*s analysis of fund flows. It appears they do include ETFs in that total.
    PS - Agree with @Mark that John’s almost daily postings predicting a market crash are probably scaring investors. :)
  • A Portfolio Review...Adjusting for the next 20 years
    You are exactly right @hank. There is more than one way to do the withdrawal thing and it comes down to feeling comfortable in a down turn. In my case the 3-4 year safe-withdrawal bucket is less than 10% of the total portfolio, so making that bucket cash and short term bonds doesn't affect the total portfolio return much. It actually allows me to be a bit more aggressive with the rest of the egg. By aggressive I mean a 60:40 distribution.
    I do enjoy reading everyone's input on this topic. Glad bee brought it up.
  • Investors Favor Money Markets Over Stock and Bond Funds: Morningstar
    Bond funds, even short term ones, get some of their return from rate movements. That's why VSBSX has a YTD figure that's so much higher than its interest yield. With short term bond funds and MMFs paying about the same in interest, the question is: do you expect rates to go up or down?
    Let's refine that a bit. What do you see as your downside risk (i.e. likelihood and magnitude of a rate increase) vs. your upside potential (chance and size of a rate decrease)? YMMV. My "hunch" is that rates are not likely to drop more than a quarter percent next year, and while not likely to rise more than that either, have more room to run in that direction.
    In 2018, VUSXX returned 1.80% in 2018, all interest; VSBSX returned virtually the same amount (1.81%) in interest while losing 0.35% in value, for a net return of 1.46. That's what happens when rates rise. In 2018 2 year rate on treasuries started out at 1.92% and ended the year at 2.48%.
    In 2019, 2 year treasuries started at 2.50% and to date (Dec 19) are sitting at 1.62%. Almost a mirror image of 2018. Though that larger 2019 decline to 1.62% (as opposed to the 2018 rise from 1.92%) suggests that rates have less room to fall now.
    It's likely that over enough time you'll eek out a few basis points over the MMF with the short term bond fund. It may not be worth taking on volatility that in magnitude exceeds the small gain in net return.
    Yields assuming no rate movement (i.e. SEC yields), according to Vanguard:
    VSBSX: 1.59% (as of Dec 18th)
    VUSXX: 1.58% (as of Dec 19th)
  • A Portfolio Review...Adjusting for the next 20 years
    @bee, 12y ago at 60 I was in something of your situation in terms of holdings, probably not as thoughtfully and with less backtesting ... but now, as I have posted before, I am simplified to ~60% or a bit more DSEEX and the rest divided among FRIFX, PONAX, and PDVAX.
    Plus cash in MINT.
    (Divided b/w ML and Fido, and if I were to do it over I would not do ML except to the extent of getting some BoA bennies.)
    Oh, and a spot in BIVRX (thanks to DSnowball-MFO), plus some held underwater stocks.
  • A Portfolio Review...Adjusting for the next 20 years
    Getting back to @MikeM’s and @msf’s original comments. Like most here I suspect,they maintain a “survival bucket” holding X years worth of anticipated needs in the event of a severe selloff in the risk assets to which one is exposed (presumably equities). I’ve heard estimates ranging from 3-5 years worth of anticipated needs held in cash or cash equivalents by various board members over the years. The idea is not to have to sell depreciated assets during a downturn. The expectation is that downturns will last a relatively short time (perhaps 5 years). Folks cite market history to support the perception downturns tend to be short lived and followed by sharp upticks.
    I’d never quarrel with that approach. Certainly sounds reasonable. Personally I’ve never used it. A very conservative investor by nature, I believe I’m better off maintaining 100% invested at all times and pulling annual distributions from that overall pot. (Note: That does not mean 100% in equities or risk assets.) Never have I needed more than 10% from investments in a single year. Most often it’s in the vicinity of 5-7%.
    I could be wrong. But my sense is I’m somewhat protected against severe equity selloffs by the diversification I maintain. It’s probably the #1 reason I pay intense attention to different market sectors almost daily and track several funds that represent various sectors. And, if equities drop sharply, I’ll essentially “rebalance on the run” by shifting withdrawals to the fixed income holdings. To some extent this has been an ongoing process over the years. I always pull distributions from the portions that have fared the best.
    Just some rambling thoughts. One size does not fit all. Admittedly, my approach is better suited for very conservative investors.
  • Investors Favor Money Markets Over Stock and Bond Funds: Morningstar
    You are not missing anything.
    #1 question - With low inflation and fixed income vehicles paying ~2%, many investors are chasing what is going up, US equities.
    #2 question - Perhaps this is their cash position. However, money market funds are yielding 1.5%. I prefer Vanguard short term treasury index, VSBSX that yields 1.59% and the YTD as of 12/19/19 at 3.38%. If I venture out with intermediate term corporate bonds and some stock exposure with Vanguard Wellesley Income, VWINX (35/65 stock/bond), it yields 2.54% with YTD of 15.97%.
  • Roth IRA 2019 contribution.
    @Gary, Please see the IRS link provided above. Roth IRA contribution limit for 2019 is $6,000. For those who are over 50, an additional $1,000 is allowed as catch-up.
    For 2020, Roth IRA contribution limit remained unchange.
    If in doubt, the best is check with the original source - IRS.
  • Investors Favor Money Markets Over Stock and Bond Funds: Morningstar
    #1 Dumb Question - Than why is the stock market continuing to go higher and higher? What’s driving equity prices?
    #2 Dumb Question - What’s the big appeal of money market funds, which on average have netted investors less than a 1.5% return YTD? (Compare that with a conservative actively managed 40/60 fund (TRRIX) which has returned more than 14%.)
    Umm ... what am I missing here?
  • New Employer 401K Options
    This is not unusual for small company plans. Small companies tend to shift the cost of running the plan onto the participants in the form of higher expense ratios (level loads).
    Companies are going to spend a certain amount of money on each employee. That includes overhead (desk space, etc.), salary, and benefits. They can choose to pay higher salaries and have you pay more for your benefits (i.e. your 401(k) plan administration). Or they can choose to pay lower salaries and then they cover the cost of your plan. Similarly, they can provide matching contributions or pay more in salary. And so on.
    I'm a bit surprised to see a company simultaneously push the cost of administering the plan onto employees and offer matching contributions. If they have money (budget) for matching, companies usually cover the cost of the plans themselves.
    What the company is doing is not all bad. By having the participants pay for the cost of the plan, the company is placing the burden exclusively on those employee who are benefiting from the plan.
    The bigger issue is why in 2019 any plan, even one for a small company, costs so much that the employer isn't willing or able to spring for the costs. Raymond James as intermediary might have something to do with it. Hard to tell with so little info.
    Here's what American Funds says about its R share classes.
    https://www.capitalgroup.com/us/investments/share-class-information/share-class-pricing.html#classr
    R-2 shares are designed and priced for when "Plan sponsor [employer] wants all or part of recordkeeping costs [i.e. fee paid to CUNA Mutual] to be covered by plan assets [i.e. ERs of funds as opposed to employer paying]". Until you get to R-4 shares, the participants are paying a load (a 12b-1 fee in excess of 0.25%) to cover some of the plan costs.
    P.S. The MMF yielded exactly 0.00% in FY 2015, 2016, and 2017. It achieved that non-negative performance only because it waived some fees for those years. With rates on the way back down, don't expect much better going forward.
    MMF Prospectus.
  • Roth IRA 2019 contribution.
    This is what I see. Fidelity may have given you incorrect information. It does mention income limits. Could that be it?
    The Roth IRA contribution limit is $6,000 for 2019, up from $5,500 in 2018. Retirement savers 50 and older can contribute an extra $1,000. Income limits apply. Retirement savers have yet another reason to celebrate the Roth IRA: The maximum amount that can be contributed to a Roth in 2019 has been increased by $500. Jun 11, 2019
  • A Portfolio Review...Adjusting for the next 20 years
    @bee, you mention that the new portfolio 'max recovery time' was about 3 years. Was that the great recession period? I'm wondering because the REIT you are putting in your "income" bucket, which I believe you would be withdrawing from while the market recovered, also went down in the -40% range during that time and also took 3 years to recover. I guess I'm just surprised a REIT, which can be just as volatile as equities, would be in the bucket you use to wait out those 3 years. And why wouldn't some percentage of that bucket be cash (MM, CD)?
    I'm setting up similar to what you are doing, a 3 1/2 year withdrawal bucket, so I like hearing your ideas.
  • Roth IRA 2019 contribution.
    I am over 50 - Motley Fool said I could contribute $ 6000 plus $ 1000 for a total of $ 7000. because I am over 50 years old.
    Fido said NO. Anybody else have any comments or knowledge of the subject.
    Thank You
  • Vanguard brokerage account conversion round 3
    I was just piggybacking on a sequence of threads for continuity; the others weren't mine.
    Regarding trends in interfaces - it seems to be a common problem that as applications are generalized, insufficient attention is being paid to interface details. As fund companies move towards integrating brokerage applications, they may relabel everything with brokerage terminology even on their fund platforms.
    Similarly Windows 10, designed as it is for both PCs and mobile devices, asks me mobility questions about my immobile desktop system. And at Merrill, its system tells me that it won't sell the fractional shares of a fund until the whole shares settle. That's how stocks work, not funds.
    I find much of this sloppiness cringe-worthy. But IMHO all it signifies is lack of care and not a fundamental change in how the platforms work underneath.
    Trade/exchange execution times is a different question. Many (most?) brokerages will do same-day exchanges within a single fund family. Same-day exchanges across fund families is a bit more difficult. I've read that some brokerage(s) will allow you to place such orders online, though I don't recall which brokerages those were. My experience with Fidelity is that you cannot do this online. But Fidelity will set up the same-day exchanges for you over the phone, at least up to 90% of the value of the holdings being sold.
  • - 10% corrections could be coming/ 2020 outlooks - couple of reads
    https://www.archyworldys.com/10-correction-could-be-coming-wells-fargo-warns/
    couple of interesting reads/
    10% corrections could be coming
    2020 outlook
    By the end of the year and the decade, Wall Street's strategists are delivering on their expectations of where the stock market will close 2020.
  • A Portfolio Review...Adjusting for the next 20 years
    I am presently at 5 institutions which I will reduce to 4 by Spring 2020 and 3 by summer 2020 “
    Great stuff @bee. I’m a dozen years beyond you in age and facing the same challenges. I went from 5 institutions to 4 a year ago - vacating Oakmark. Tough getting it down further anytime soon. I view both Permanent Portfolio Funds and Invesco as “one-trick ponies” at this point. The first for PRPFX and the second for its gold fund. The bulk, however, is at D&C and TRP - both of which I regard highly.
    bee - You incentivized me to count mine: I have 14 funds (which includes 2 ultra-shorts). I find that number quite manageable. (If I counted correctly, you listed 16, including VHT.)
    My allocation :
    Balanced: 25% (3 funds)
    Alternative: 25% (3 funds)
    Diversified Income: 25% (2 funds)
    Cash (Ultra-short / Short-term): 15% (3 funds)
    Real Assets: 10% (3 funds)
    PS - As noted recently, thinking about this allocation is a good way to fall asleep. :)
  • A Portfolio Review...Adjusting for the next 20 years
    As part of my end of the year portfolio review I try to simplify my holdings without compromising performance. I am 60 years old and have a pension, but no Social Security (SS's WEP provision eliminated SS for me). I see the next 20 years as a time to spend a little bit of what I have saved knowing full well that, if I am lucky enough to live into my eighties, spending priorities will begin to shift away from "foot loose and fancy free" to "foot wear that's loose and free".
    Simplification comes in two forms. One, I am attempting to simplify what I hold (the number of funds) and two, where I hold these funds (the number of institutions where I hold the funds). I manage all of my investments independent of advisors. I do attempt to seek out mutual funds that are managed. So, in a sense, I do pay for investment management advice as a function of the Expense Ratio (ER) of the funds i own that have fund managers or management teams.
    Over the next 20 years my withdrawal from these investments need to fund:
    - Yearly Income gaps - the yearly shortfall when I subtract my projected yearly expenses from my retirement income.
    - One time Expenses - For gift costs (weddings, tuition, holidays), travel costs, medical procedures costs (not covered by insurances), large one time item costs (a car, boat, real estate)
    - Roth Conversions up to the 12% tax bracket limit (25% of my retirement accounts are in deferred taxable IRA, 75% in Roth/HSA).
    - Help fund retirement needs beyond 80 such as income gaps as a result of inflation, out of pocket health care costs, funeral expenses, providing for surviving spouse, and gifting to beneficiaries (Spouse, Kids, Charities)...oh yeah, and loose fitting shoes.
    Here are my present holding by percentages of total:
    71% Moderate to Aggressive positions (for long term growth and periodic withdrawals)
    PRWCX - 22% (half Roth, half SD IRA)
    PRGSX - 10.5% (Roth)
    PRMTX - 7.5% (Roth)
    PRHSX - 4% (SD IRA)
    VMVFX - 6% (Roth)
    VHCOX / POAGX-11% (Roth)
    VHT - 2% (Roth)
    FSMEX - 4% (Roth)
    FSRPX - 4% (Roth)
    6% Balance position (to cover Long term HC costs)
    BRUFX - (HSA)
    23% Conservative positions (to cover sequence of return withdrawals, to provide cash for buying opportunities, lower portfolio volatility)
    FRIFX, VWINX, PTIAX, VFISX, PRWBX, SPRXX - (mostly Roth)
    I am presently at 5 institutions which I will reduce to 4 by Spring 2020 and 3 by summer 2020
    Recently, I back tested a portfolio consisting of PRWCX (34%), PRMTX (33%) and PRHSX (33%) which I consider moderately aggressive.
    Its past 20 year performance had a MAXXDD recovery period of 3 years. I consider this a reasonable time frame to cover a sequence of return risk withdrawal.
    Having at least 3 years of retirement income money earmarked for these future time frames (market pull backs and recoveries) seems reasonable to me. A combination of FRIFX / VWINX / PTIAX / ST Bonds are my choices for this part of my portfolio.
    Any thoughts or suggestions would be appreciated.
  • New Employer 401K Options
    Recently accepted a job with a new employer who offers a matching 401k plan. Employer has around 15 to 20 eligible employees. It's been 22 years since I've had access to a 401k plan. Below are the offerings. I've included the corresponding class A shares for each fund which are not available to plan participants. The disparity in expense ratios is staggering in most cases. I'm not going to turn down free money, but I'll only contribute enough to maximize the company match. The plan's adviser from Raymond James stated that changes are being discussed. Sounds like Target Date Funds are among the discussion and hopefully some Index funds, but I fear what the ER for those funds would end up looking like given this lineup. The plan is through Cuna Mutual, whoever they are. I gathered the ER from M*.
    Bonds
    AMF High-Inc R2 RITBX 1.45 AHITX .73
    AMF Bond Fund of Amer R2 RBFBX 1.36 ABNDX .60
    AMF Interm Bd Fd of Amer R2 RBOBX 1.35 AIBAX .64
    Large Cap Stocks
    AMF Washington Mutual R2 RWMBX 1.37 AWSHX .59
    Calamos Growth C CVGCX 2.04 CVGRX 1.29
    Victory Diversified Stock R GRINX 1.34 SRVEX 1.05
    International Stocks
    AMF Capital World Gr & Inc R2 RWIBX 1.55 CWGIX .76
    AMF Europacific Growth R2 RERBX 1.59 AEPGX .83
    AMF Smallcap World R2 RSLBX 1.78 SMCWX 1.08
    Asset Allocation
    AMF Balanced R2 RBABX 1.48 ABALX .57
    AMF Capital Income Bldr R2 RIRBX 1.39 CAIBX .58
    Calamos Growth & Income C CVTCX 1.85 CVTRX 1.10
    Money Market
    AMF US Government MMkt R2 RABXX 1.41 AFAXX .38