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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Retirees: It may be time to ditch your investment strategy
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retirees-it-may-be-time-to-ditch-your-investment-strategy-11593008864
    Outside the Box
    4 ways to build your wealth and make it last longer
    Retirees: It may be time to ditch your investment strategy
    By Jonathan Clements
    What to do with your money now that yield has dried up?
    They’ve long been endangered, but 2020 may mark their demise: After four decades of falling interest rates, it seems safe investments offering attractive yields have finally disappeared.
  • Learn About The Many Types Of Retirement Income Generators
    Can’t get over the fascination with “income” in an extremely low rate environment where U.S. government AAA paper is yielding practically nothing (0.65% this morning on a 10-year bond). Let’s go out a bit on the credit spectrum and assume maybe 2% on a top tier cooperate bond. If you expect those returns to put food on your table over time - best plan to plant a garden.
    Don’t get me wrong. More highly speculative bonds can be held or “played”, along with income producing equities, as part of a broader plan, but the income thrown off from those isn’t the “Steady Eddy” guaranteed stream from month-to-month most would desire or expect in an income generating vehicle. Expect dry spells along the way if going lower down on the credit ladder.
    What seems clear (to me anyway) is the importance of diversifying into an assortment of asset classes, which working together can produce more or less reliable capital appreciation over time. There will be dry spells of course. Think like the major hydro-electric players do and build in some “peak demand reservoirs” you can open the spickets on during those dry times, draw down, and than turn the spickets back off and let the reserve slowly build back up to full capacity during better times. Some use cash as that reserve. But it needn’t have to be cash.
    Think of portfolio construction as: low risk (relatively stable) components, moderate risk components, value-based components, and growth / speculative components. The latter two will stand you well when the flood gates are wide open and the waters sre surging. David is intending to review TMSRX in the July Commentary . Before going “hog-wild” loading up on income funds that return pennies on the dollar, take a look at that one to see where might fit in. I wouldn’t buy an old favorite TRRIX right now, but there’s a fund that originally was named “Retirement Income Fund” (despite maintaining a 40% equity allocation) - just to show you how the definition and approach to income generation may be expanded.
    Added : Reverse mortgages as an income stream? I guess. But it would be hard to call one “income generating” since in essence you’re “Robbing Peter to Pay Paul“. Net-Net the lender gains and the borrower ends up with little or no home equity. To me, home equity is an asset just like a stock, bond, ounce of gold, mutual fund, etc. Don’t misunderstand me. For some people they may make sense. Just questioning how they’re apparently being viewed here.
  • President Trump is great for your 401(k): strategist

    Tweety Amin, AKA Donald JOHN Trump, AKA General Dotard von Bonespurs, AKA Boss Tweety, AKA the Orange S---tgibbon, will win in November and claim 170% (at least!) of the Electoral College with 215% of Republican voters supporting him! There will be No "Fraud" at all and it will be the biglyest blowout in the history of competitions at that fine institution! They will serve hamberders and covfefe at the Corona Plaza gathering of die-hard supporters with live telecast streaming of the similar celebratory festivities in Bejing, Moscow, Manilla, and Caracas! Not to be missed - sorry haters and losers! Thank you!
    ... excuse me, I need to rinse out the bile that's risen and is splashing around my throat now....
  • Learn About The Many Types Of Retirement Income Generators
    @bee: Corrected Pfau link
    While I'm generally a fan ofr Dr. Pfau, ISTM he skipped over some details and created some misimpressions. The first is that he appears to use HECM and "reverse mortgage" synonymously. Rather, an HECM is but one of three types of reverse mortgages. Being the most common type, and the one backed by HUD and providing some government protections, it is the type I'd likely look at first. But different types do exist, with different benefits, costs, and risks.
    https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/0192-reverse-mortgages#types
    "With a HECM, the home title is never turned over to the bank." Okay, but so what? One has the same risk of foreclosure regardless of who holds the title. When you buy a home, do you care whether you take out a mortgage (where you keep title), or you borrow the money using a deed of trust (where the trust gets legal title)? While foreclosure procedures differ, you're still subject to foreclosure either way.
    https://www.lendingtree.com/home/mortgage/deed-of-trust-vs-mortgage/
    FWIW, here's what the FTC says about title: "In a reverse mortgage, you keep the title to your home. That means you are responsible for property taxes, insurance, utilities, fuel, maintenance, and other expenses." Of course you'd expect that in any case.
    https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/0192-reverse-mortgages#how
    "They need to have full equity in the home; there can’t be any other lien on the property." HUD begs to differ on HECMs: "You must ... Own the property outright or paid-down a considerable amount"
    https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/housing/sfh/hecm/hecmabou
    Dr Pfau gives four different approaches to managing sequence of return risk (I've cited this before). One is to use a cash buffer.. He describes three different ways of implementing that approach, one of which is to use a reverse mortgage line of credit. What I haven't seen him discuss (perhaps I have not looked hard enough) is why he advocates using a HECM over other types of reverse mortgages, let alone other types of credit.
    ISTM that if you're looking at this for use as a cash buffer - a line of credit for a temporary loan that you might never call upon - a HELOC with lower up front costs could have lower total costs. OTOH, if you're thinking of using a reverse mortgage for something else, then you might still expand your search beyond HECMs. The FTC writes:
    If you’re considering a reverse mortgage, shop around. Decide which type of reverse mortgage might be right for you. That might depend on what you want to do with the money.
    https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/0192-reverse-mortgages#shopping.
    Dr. Pfau mentions using reverse mortgages as a SS bridge (to delay benefits). A 2017 "CFPB report found, in general, the costs and risks of taking out a reverse mortgage exceed the cumulative increase in Social Security lifetime benefits that homeowners would receive by delayed claiming."
    https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-report-warns-taking-out-reverse-mortgage-loan-can-be-expensive-way-maximize-social-security-benefits/
    Finally, the "gotcha" that concerns me with reverse mortgages (and I like the idea of reverse mortgages if obtained at reasonable cost and rates for a well defined purpose), is that you have to pay the money back when you move. How do you buy a new home if you have spent down your equity? It looks like there is a risk of being locked into your home for life, because you won't have enough equity left to move anywhere else.
    Consumer Financial Protection Bureau: What happens if I have a reverse mortgage [HECM] and I want to sell my home?
    https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-cfpb/what-happens-if-i-have-reverse-mortgage-and-i-want-sell-my-home-en-2095/
    HECM risks and disadvantages (citing CFPB): https://www.elderoptionsoftexas.com/article-reverse-mortgage-pros-and-cons.htm
  • Will there 2nd wave..?
    Hello
    Will Dows 1000 points down today at closing?
    First covid19 wave may never ended imho [according to many medical statisticians]
    possible massive dive today and next few days. maybe more bloodbaths on Dows Street
    Stay hunkered down/ safe
  • Schwab institutional class funds
    @little5bee You are correct. I work for an investment consulting firm & in my personal account under our umbrella, I am able to but Inst class shares, RIA only funds (like interval funds), and even currently closed funds so long as at least 1 account under our huge master account holds the closed fund, usually all with $1 minimum.
  • Hussman's Finally Right - HSGFX
    he still has $1,000,000,000 ???
    The only manger I know who was worse is Henry Van der Eb who ran the Mathers fund. He nailed Black Monday and then sat in cash forever after

    I nominate Charles Steadman for the dubious honor of being the worst fund manager.
    "In the 30 years before Charles Steadman's death in 1997, the average mutual fund was up more than 20-fold. Three of the four Steadman funds were down; all four of his funds - including his lone 'winner' - landed among the 10 worst-performing funds over that three-decade period, according to Lipper Inc."
    Link
  • Bullish investors pull $105bn from US money market funds in four weeks
    https://www.google.com/search?q=Bullish+investors+pull+$105bn+from+US+money+market+funds+in+four+weeks&oq=Bullish+investors+pull+$105bn+from+US+money+market+funds+in+four+weeks&aqs=chrome..69i57.2263j0j7&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/74b413b4-a7c2-4488-a669-e6de4a0133b5
    Bullish investors pull $105bn from US money market funds in four weeks
    Investors and companies have started to redeploy the record amounts of cash they stashed in ultra-safe money market funds at the height of the Covid-19 turmoil, eager not to miss out on a rapid recovery in riskier assets.
    Bull market continues?
  • President Trump is great for your 401(k): strategist
    trump +115
    biden -130
    recently according to vegas
    Clinton was -700 trump +475 back in 2016
  • President Trump is great for your 401(k): strategist
    It is so sad to see a candidate like Biden with health issues. I wouldn't let him manage a small business with 10 employees. Why his family and friends don't tell him the truth?
    And then there is Trump, regardless of what you think he will be elected again even after Dems pull out all their stunts.
    The pendulum has to swing left and right :-)

    start a pool, place your large bet, money where mouth is and all that good stuff
  • Schwab institutional class funds
    I don't have an account with them but see a couple institutional class funds listed with $100,000 minimums that also say "institutional customers only" under availability (TRGLX for example). I spoke to a Schwab rep over the phone who said retail customers cannot buy these.
    Has anyone been able to buy into institutional class funds through a Schwab online brokerage account?
  • Hussman's Finally Right - HSGFX
    he still has $1,000,000,000 ???
    The only manger I know who was worse is Henry Van der Eb who ran the Mathers fund. He nailed Black Monday and then sat in cash forever after
  • President Trump is great for your 401(k): strategist
    It is so sad to see a candidate like Biden with health issues. I wouldn't let him manage a small business with 10 employees. Why his family and friends don't tell him the truth?
    And then there is Trump, regardless of what you think he will be elected again even after Dems pull out all their stunts.
    The pendulum has to swing left and right :-)

    Do you think that our next president will pick your great mayor of Atlanta as a running mate?
  • President Trump is great for your 401(k): strategist
    Hello
    sorry to be political. I think there is maybe a LARGE blue wave in Nov 2020 according to PBS/ABC CNN CNBC and MSNBC probably Biden wins 360 to 178 according to many polls/predictions today. Biden is leading by 10-12 points overall in all states and also tied in Az, GA, Tx. Huge lead in Mn + 17. Think Biden may have better healthcare and free for all, Ms Harris will oversee "undertable" it as VP. Biden has >60s% chance of winning US Election today.
    Stock may not do well though next year because Biden not very friendly toward Corporate Americans. If biden win I will buy more real physical gold, maybe another uprising and US may turn into ?? Marxist Environments and market crash maybe in late 2020 early 2021 because of 2nd wave covid and tanking enconomies..
    I will sit this election out. These crumps/idiots running are bad for us. Wish Pete, Andrew Yang or Bush Juniors were still running I would vote for them.
    Senate/House/Potus Democrats may not be good for US -No checks nor balance.
  • O’Shaughnessy Small Cap Value Fund to liquidate
    updated:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027596/000089418920004855/oshaughnessy497eliquidatio.htm
    497 1 oshaughnessy497eliquidatio.htm O'SHAUGHNESSY 497E
    O'Shaughnessy Small Cap Value Fund
    Class I: OFSIX
    Supplement dated June 15, 2020 to
    Prospectus dated November 28, 2019
    O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC, the Advisor to the O’Shaughnessy Small Cap Value Fund (the “Fund”), has recommended, and the Board of Trustees of Advisors Series Trust has approved, the liquidation and termination of the Fund. This decision was made due to the unfavorable economies of operating a small fund with no realistic prospect for future growth.
    The liquidation is expected to occur after the close of business on July 27, 2020. Pending liquidation of the Fund, investors will continue to be able to reinvest dividends received in the Fund.
    Effective June 16, 2020, the Fund will no longer accept purchases of new shares. In addition, the Fund’s Advisor will no longer be actively investing the Fund’s assets in accordance with the Fund’s investment objective and policies and the Fund’s assets will be converted into cash and cash equivalents. As a result, as of June 16, 2020, the Fund will no longer be pursuing its stated investment objective. Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus. Accounts not redeemed by July 27, 2020 will automatically be closed and liquidating distributions, less any required tax withholdings, will be sent to the address of record.
    If you hold your shares in an IRA account directly with U.S. Bank N.A. you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds to reinvest your proceeds into another IRA account and maintain their tax-deferred status. You must notify the Fund or your financial advisor prior to July 22, 2020 of your intent to reinvest your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your proceeds.
    Please contact the Fund at 1-877-291-7827 or your financial advisor if you have questions or need assistance.
    Please retain this Supplement with the Prospectus.
  • President Trump is great for your 401(k): strategist
    It is so sad to see a candidate like Biden with health issues. I wouldn't let him manage a small business with 10 employees. Why his family and friends don't tell him the truth?
    And then there is Trump, regardless of what you think he will be elected again even after Dems pull out all their stunts.
    The pendulum has to swing left and right :-)
  • Hussman's Finally Right - HSGFX
    From wiki(link)
    John Peter Hussman (born 15 October 1962) is an American stock market analyst and hedge fund owner. From 1992 to 1998, Hussman was Professor of Economics and International Finance at the University of Michigan.[2][3] In 1998–2000, Hussman set up Hussman Strategic Advisors, a hedge fund which successfully anticipated the dot-com bubble.[4] Hussman also successfully anticipated the 2008–09 credit crisis[5], but has severely under performed since then.
    In September 2010, Hussman managed US$ 6.7 billion.[6][4] Since the post-2013 recovery, Hussman has remained bearish, asserting that central banking "quantitative easing" ("QE") has distorted markets and created a false recovery, and inflated asset prices, which had led to extremely poor investment performance.[6] As of 30 September 2019, Hussman's Strategic Growth fund had a 10-year average annual loss of -7.23% (-53% total loss), compared to a 13.24% average annual gain (+250% total gain) by its benchmark, the S&P 500. [7] By 2018, asset under management declined to USD 1 billion.[6][8]
  • Wirecard $2 billion Fraud and International Small Cap Funds - Wasatch, Artisan, etc.
    A related concern, one which we've discussed in other threads, is proxy voting. Many mutual fund companies say they are most effective via direct engagement as opposed to voting for shareholder initiatives. Their "engagement" apparently doesn't result in learning about the companies they invest in, or as you suggest even worse they let problems slide, deciding not to effect change or at least bail out.
    Some companies like Vanguard and Blackrock pretend to actively engage with companies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/13/blackrock-vanguard-found-religion-on-climate-doubts-are-growing.html
    While others don't even put up a pretense. The manager of the aforementioned Oakmark International Small Cap instead quotes Milton Friedman:
    “There is one and only one social responsibility of business—to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game, which is to say, engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud.”
    https://oakmark.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/09/17-0630_Oakmark_ThirdQuarterReport.pdf
    A reminder - much of what Enron did was within the rules of the game (mostly legal). "It often comes down to the premise that just because something is legal doesn’t mean it’s ethical [emphasis in original]. Sure, the MTM [mark-to-market] accounting method is used in responsible, pragmatic ways daily, by all kinds of ethical companies, but it was also used by the likes of Enron to dupe millions of investors out of their life savings."
    https://bizfluent.com/info-7747847-enron-scandal-ethics.html
    Your scenarios of what the fund companies knew and when they knew it go from bad to worse. It seems there are no white hats in the industry. The best one can do is look for lighter shades of gray.
  • President Trump is great for your 401(k): strategist
    I’ve had friends (yes, still have a couple) who claim that not enough people own 401-Ks, IRAs, etc. to make a difference in voting. I think what they miss here is that those who own such investments tend to be better educated and wealthier folks and, hence, are more likely to show up and vote than the population at large.
    Some of that advantage, however, is being taken away by aggressive Secretary of States in the various states who are aggressively pushing voter participation. Ours has begun mailing out absentee voter applications (not ballots) to all registered / eligible voters weeks in advance of elections. But I think it’s wrong to discount the 401-K effect. People do tend to vote their pocketbook. Helps explain T’s fascination with equity levels to the point where he once publicly chastised Jay Powell because the DJI was dropping a few points while Powell was speaking!