On Marketwatch, when you look up a fund, you are shown what a $10,000 invested in 1997 is worth today. Here are the results of a few popular funds:
GLRBX: $26,488
FPACX: $41,022
OAKBX: $30,927
VBINX: $21,956
BERIX: $30,606

All good stuff.
Umm ... I happened on those 3 balanced funds more or less by chance. PRWCX looked like a more conservative & better diversified offering compared to PRFDX when it opened in the 90s. All my $$ was at Price in an employee sponsored plan at that time. DODBX was appealing about a dozen years ago for its low .52% ER, for being a privately owned firm that often steps to a different drummer, and for very low turnover. Don't know why I like OAKBX and PRPFX, but for some reason they allow me to sleep better at night.
Point was that I wasn't cherry-picking here. Just happened to own these more or less by chance. Two are competitive with VBINX at 10-years and all four outpaced it easily over 15 years. I like longer periods like 15 years. However you could also argue to the contrary that shorter time frames give a better indication of current management's abilities.
Never owned Vanguard so can't comment on the intangibles. But in selecting a fund house they are important. Price is hard to beat for customer service, low minimums and ability to exchange shares. The others I mentioned are handicapped by a smaller stable of investments but like Price also have low minimums.
Beta? Interesting stats. Afraid I rarely track that. With actively managed funds beta can vary greatly from year to year along with management's current outlook. Oakmark was hurt when they decided to de-emphasize long term government bonds couple years ago. Added to volatility, but they felt bonds had had their run.
Welcome aboard. Great handle Shipwreckedalone.

1. Nothing to write home about ....assumes the investor is predisposed to balanced fund level of risk/beta. No 100% equity funds. 2. I do not believe I am capable of picking the top 1.4% managers as you have done. I could not pick the top 1.4% over the next ten years of anything for that matter. Risks: manager leaves or asset size balloons to the point of reducing overall returns OR fund closes to new investors which makes removes it as an option OR the BERIX syndrome whereby you sell your reputation OR you don't know what you don't know. 3. I agree with PRWCX. This is the rare management I speak of. 4. Both OAKBX and DODBX were my favs for many years also but I removed them because the beta of these funds rose as well as returns are begging to fade.
DODBX 1 year -4.19% 3 year 7.40% 5 year 8.06% Beta now = 1.20.
OAKBX 1 year -6.77% 3 year 5.33% 5 year 5.55% Beta = 1.19.
VBINX 1 year -1.69% 3 year 7.04% 5 year 7.64% Beta = 0.97.
My beloved FPACX is also showing sign of cracking. sigh.
The biggest risk to VBINX is rapidly rising rates, but that would affect most of the Allocation category but still would hurt overall returns. I belive declining rates have been a huge tailwind to Allocation fund returns for decades. Thanks for your feedback.

Hi Hank. I don't think you are saying anything different than shipwrecked is, really. You picked some of the best funds in the business to compare. You will find fund managers that have outperformed this index fund over chosen time frames. But you will find many many more that have not. Using his statistics, that would be 1069 moderately balanced funds out there that someone must be investing in that can not beat the index.
I don't own VBINX, but looking at the 1, 3, 5 and 10 year rankings within category, this fund is amazingly consistent. At these time periods, VBINX has been ranked in the top 8-12% in category. Never worst than top 12% over 1, 3, 5, 10 year periods!!! That's pretty damn consistent. You can not say the same about OAKBX, DODBX, FPACX or especially PRPFX over the last 1, 3, 5 and 10 years.
Anyway, from what I get out of this post, I think the whole idea here is we here at MFO do make the fund game more complex than what it probably needs to be. Heck, I think this is what Ed Studzinski has been saying in his commentaries for some time now.

VBINX: 5.97% and 5.17% for 10 & 15 years respectively?
That's fine - but nothing to write home about. I get your drift that VBINX has out-performed most balanced funds. It's hard to beat Vanguard's low ERs. Probably a fine investment for many.
For comparison, I checked three actively managed balanced funds at M* which I have long owned. All three trounced VBINX over 15 years, despite having higher fees. Admittedly, these nay not adhere as strictly to a 60/40 blend as VBINX does - but under normal circumstances 60/40 is a close approximation.
VBINX: 5.97% & 5.17% - 10/15 year
DODBX: 4.64% & 6.30% - 10/15 year
PRWCX: 7.73% & 8.88% - 10/15 year
OAKBX: 5.97% & 7.27% - 10/15 year
And here's one that's decidedly not a balanced fund, but also appealing to conservative investors and having a superior 15 year return compared to VBINX.
PRPFX: 5.10% & 7.33% - 10/15 year

Various risk & return metrics across several evaluation periods through January 2016:

For a taxable account I would suggest VTMFX.
10 yr chart of VBINX compared to VTMFX:

After Tax Performance comparison:

VBINX (a simple 60/40 fund) is ranked #16 out of all 1194 Allocation (Balanced) funds based on Fidelity's Mutual Fund research site over the last 10 years. Therefore 98.6% of all the CFA's, MBA's, ChFA and PhD's portfolio managers cannot outperform a simple low cost index. Why do we even spend time discussing the best funds?
Over any 1, 3, 5 or 10 year timeframe compared to only Moderate Allocation OR all Allocation funds, VBINX is better than 89.5% of any actively managed fund. Amazing. The really great managers are rare.

FYI: (This is a follow-up article)
For seven years in a row, U.S. investors have sent more money to Vanguard Group, the world's largest mutual fund company, than any of its rivals, says fund-tracker Morningstar Inc.
The Malvern-based company now controls 5 percent of every stock exchange-listed U.S. company.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.philly.com/philly/business/20160214_Vanguard__An_investment_leader_that_keeps_streamlining.html

I think one can just use a simple 10 mo moving average cross strategy applied to the S&P 500 and long bonds, do better than 99% of these people, and save a lot of time by not having to read their rhetoric ...

+1.

FYI: Most investments lost ground in 2015’s volatile markets and continue to do so this year. One of the few asset classes to deliver positive results was municipal bonds. What’s the outlook for this year? Robert DiMella, co-head of award winning MacKay Municipal Managers and Portfolio Manager of several five star rated muni funds shares his forecast and strategies.
Regatrds,
Ted
http://wealthtrack.com/dimella-muni-advantage/
M* Snapshot MKINX:
http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/mkinx/quote.html
M* Snapshot MMHVX:
http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/mmhvx/quote.html
Lipper Snapshot MKINX:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/mkinx
Lipper Snapshot MMHVX:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/MMHVX?countrycode=US
Neither MKINX Or MMHVX Are Ranked By U.S. News & World Report:

I wonder if any of these other guys have "hedge Fund" ideas before the Securities and Exchange Commission
Top fund managers can't catch a break
Some formerly hot hands like Legg Mason's Bill Miller have gone cold
Feb 10, 2016 @ 4:23 pm
By John Waggoner
Mr. Miller clawed his way back with Legg Mason Opportunity, driving the fund to a 40% gain in 2012 and a 68% gain in 2013. But the current market correction has clobbered the fund, sending it down 27.9% this year through Monday,
Another big name with big losses: G. Kenneth Heebner, manager of CGM Focus fund (CGMFX), which is down 25.10%. Mr. Heebner, one of the top managers of the 1990s, has had a rotten decade
Baron Partners fund (BPTRX), the eponymous $1.6 billion fund run by Ron Baron since 1992, has shed 23.47% this year.
Federated Kaufman Small Cap (FKASX), overseen by legendary small-cap investor Hans Utsch, has fallen 24.80% this year
Jacob Small Cap Growth Fund (JSCGX), run by former dot-com investing star Ryan Jacob, has plunged 26.79% this year and 40.87% over the past 12 months, according to Morningstar. (Jacob Internet, in contrast, has fallen 22.55% in 2016 and 14.71% the past 12 months).
It's been a rough ride for Jacob. The fund has not risen above the 99th percentile for the past one, three and five years
Messrs Miller, Heebner, Baron, Jacob and Levine could not be immediately reached for comment.
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160210/FREE/160219987?template=printart

Hi @Derf,
Thanks for the question.
I am sorry I missed your page yesterday. I was just now reading through the threads and found it.
Yes, when the S&P 500 Index dropped into the 1820's yesterday I put a buy order in and added to to my position in FDSAX. With this, I have bought, in various funds, at 1922, 1880 and 1829 which averages to 1877 on the Index's scale. My next buy step on the downside is scheduled to be around 1770 should the Index pull back to this level in the near term.
Currently, I have no spiff positions. All my recent buys noted above are in buy and hold positions.
Old_Skeet

My father subscribed to Bob Brinker for awhile in 2000's. Brinker held onto a position in MSFT and a bond fund ( I think) for quite a long while . He also had an "out of character" trade, sending out a special bulletin recommendation for QQQQ in 2000 ( which lost 50+% ) and , I believe, never was "sold" and was never recorded on the trades list.
I think one can just use a simple 10 mo moving average cross strategy applied to the S&P 500 and long bonds, do better than 99% of these people, and save a lot of time by not having to read their rhetoric ...

So I would not have been allowed to post this link regarding his 2008 advice?
https://www.cxoadvisory.com/2745/individual-gurus/bob-brinker/
And some more favorable reviews below. Apparently 2008 was one of his few missed calls.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=94945
An even more interesting link.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-brinker-brawl-round-2

For what it's worth, Bob Brinker sent out a stock market Buy Alert ("market attractive for purchase") two days ago on Wednesday evening to his Market Timer newsletter subscribers. I don't subscribe, but I know somebody who does. Brinker rarely gives a buy or a sell signal, sometimes going years between signals.
I remember his signal to buy the Nasdaq 100 in 2000 during a pause in the tech stock debacle. The markets resumed plunging and those who bought on his signal and held on had to wait 15 years to break even.

He was bullish in 2008 and kept expecting all time highs by the end of the year. He knows about as much as you, me, and the man in the moon. While it helps to be articulate and knowledgeable in many fields of complex endeavors, the stock market is not one of them. Maybe because the stock market is not as complex as it is made out to be.

For what it's worth, Bob Brinker sent out a stock market Buy Alert ("market attractive for purchase") two days ago on Wednesday evening to his Market Timer newsletter subscribers. I don't subscribe, but I know somebody who does. Brinker rarely gives a buy or a sell signal, sometimes going years between signals.
I remember his signal to buy the Nasdaq 100 in 2000 during a pause in the tech stock debacle. The markets resumed plunging and those who bought on his signal and held on had to wait 15 years to break even.

When did he send out a sell alert?

For what it's worth, Bob Brinker sent out a stock market Buy Alert ("market attractive for purchase") two days ago on Wednesday evening to his Market Timer newsletter subscribers. I don't subscribe, but I know somebody who does. Brinker rarely gives a buy or a sell signal, sometimes going years between signals.
I remember his signal to buy the Nasdaq 100 in 2000 during a pause in the tech stock debacle. The markets resumed plunging and those who bought on his signal and held on had to wait 15 years to break even.

Dead Cat Bounce?

Depends which cat you mean.
- Oil's been dragging bottom for over a year. Suspect we're plumming the bottom somewhere in the $25+ area.
- I'm not convinced re stocks. And the move today doesn't look that convincing to me. Could rally for a few days than fall back.
- Gold's unpredictable. Might as well go to Vegas and throw your money on the craps tables. I'll agree, however, with those who believe financial chaos and a weaker dollar tend to bolster its attractiveness. Having a bit of exposure has helped me in recent months.
Disclaimer: I'm not an expert. My forecasts over the years have a 50-50 success/failure ratio. I am not a market timer and do not normally attempt to time markets nor have I ever been affiliated with any market timers or market timing strategies.

10 Year Treasuries hit 1.55% intraday now trading over 1.70%. 30 year bond futures hit all time historic lows. Oil up over 10% off its lows of yesterday, Dow up over 300 points from yesterday's lows. The gold bugs out in force. I will be real interested in how the remainder of this day unfolds.