Hi @MikeW. Thank you for your question. My response follows below.
The three best performers from each sleeve are as follows. Income sleeve HWHAX +5.99% ... PGBAX +5.00% ... and, LBNDX +4.86%. Hybrid Income sleeve FRINX +9.93% ... FISCX +6.71% ... and, AZNAX +5.67%..

Some people like posting narratives. I prefer hard numbers.
Start with $1,000, withdraw $40 (4% real, i.e. inflation adjusted) annually over 30 years. Do this with declining equity portfolios (e.g. 100% down to 0%) and with rising equity portfolios (e.g. 0% to 100%). Backtest against historical data, using rolling 30 year periods starting with 1900-1929, ending with 1980-2009.
Then look at the failure rates (portfolios that didn't last 30 years), and how much you'd wind up with at the end of the 30 year period.

Equity %	
(Start->End)	100->0	0->100	90->10	10->90	80->20	20->80	70->30	30->70
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Failure Rate	 8.6%   21.0%    6.2%  	17.3% 	 4.9%    11.1%   4.9%	 8.6% 
Mean 		$1,388 	$851  	$1,336	$901   	$1,283	 $954	$1,230	$1,009 
Median		  $947	$171	  $873 	$293 	  $908 	 $424 	  $951    $527

Data from Exhibit 1 in Estrada,The Retirement Glidepath: An International Perspective, The Journal of Investing (Summer 2016).

Pfau and Kitces (2014) find support for RE strategies during retirement and justify their findings with the notion of sequence of returns risk. ... [I]f large negative returns occur at the beginning of the retirement period, the portfolio is far more likely to be depleted than if the same returns occurred by the end of such period...This is a plausible argument and perhaps applies to the simulations discussed in Pfau and Kitces (2014). ... However, the support for DE [declining equity] strategies found here (at least when compared to RE [rising equity] strategies) calls into question how relevant sequence of returns risk has been empirically... In other words, however plausible in theory, sequence of returns risk does not seem to have been a key determinant of portfolio failure in this broad sample.

Big advantage for rising equity? Plausible but not borne out. Nor as noted previously do Pfau's simulations bear this out under market conditions like today's.
Way too often people go with their gut, or their fears, rather than rational analysis and cold hard numbers. That's why only about 5% of people wait until age 70 to take SS, it's part of why there's an annuity puzzle.
For those who don't want to read Estrada's complete paper, there's Larry Swedroe's page about it. He concludes:

To summarize, while Estrada presents evidence favoring the use of a DE [declining equity] glide path over a rising one, and also shows that a static 60/40 allocation is preferable to an RE [rising equity] portfolio, the most prudent strategy of all is not to “set it and forget it” with any of these options.
The most prudent approach is to adapt a strategy to actual market returns and valuations.

Hi @FD1000, While HY Minis have done good, as you note, my income sleeve is up 4.5% and my hybrid income sleeve is up 5.5% for the month. With this, it appears fixed income across the board has done well.
Cordially,
Old_Skeet

Call it confirmation bias, but I generally agree with Clements. At least a couple of years ago I wondered (and posted) whether low rates coupled with interest rate risk rendered the value of bonds over cash dubious. I've written favorably about Buffett's propsed allocation, 10% short term (effectively cash), 90% equities. Though I disagreed with his singleminded focus on the S&P 500. This cash/equity approach is also essentially Evensky's 1985 two bucket strategy.
Figuring on a 4% withdrawal rate, the 10% cash could buffer a bear market taking 2.5 years to recover. Clements suggests 25% cash, or around a 6 year buffer. I might split the difference and put half of that 25% in cash, half in vanilla bonds, figuring that the bonds will do better even with modestly rising interest rates, if one waits 3 years or more.
As Clements noted, the expectation value of SS is greater if one delays taking benefits. This is especially true if one is focused on one's own lifetime and not on legacies. If one has a financial need for monthly checks before age 70, one can fill the gap with a temporary life annuity.
Which brings us to annuities. Dr. Wade Pfau says much the same thing as Clements - that the lower the current interest rates, the bigger the bargain annuities are, thanks to mortality credits. "Essentially, while the cost of funding retirement with an annuity increases as interest rates decline, the cost of funding retirement in other ways increases even faster than for the annuity. Therefore, the annuity becomes a better relative deal."
Speaking of Dr. Pfau, while he and Michael Kitces suggested seven years ago that a rising glidepath might provide a slightly higher probability of success (not running out of money over 30 years), subsequent research by Dr. David M. Blanchett showed that a traditional declining glidepath would work better in an environment with low interest rates and highly valued stocks. As it was in 2015 when he wrote his paper, and as it is now.
They had an ongoing exchange about this. Here's one part:

I re-ran the analysis that Michael and I did in our initial article, but I switched to the new capital market assumptions I use which allow for increasing bond yields over time while keeping a fixed average equity premium over bonds. ... It does indeed seem that retiring at times with particularly low bond yields, which can be expected to increase over time, may not favor rising equity glidepaths during retirement. It essentially causes the retiree to lock in low bond returns and even capital losses on a bond fund as bond yields gradually increase (on average) over time.
This is not to say that rising equity glidepaths are never a good idea. ... If interest rates were at a higher initial starting point, I’m guessing that rising glidepaths would look much better in his analysis.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2020/06/12/as-market-volatility-returns-check-out-these-strategies-to-protect-your-portfolio/#214c7ccc538b
As Market Volatility Returns, Check Out These Strategies To Protect Your Portfolio
Take advantage of any recovery today to initiate iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ETF (SPY) and iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (EWH) put strategies. COVID-19 and economic disappointment potential is not a respecter of equity valuation. Yesterday’s performance reminds us that the markets tether to fundamentals can be loose, but it nonetheless exists.
We’ve been recommending playing for extreme outcomes and it still makes sense. Here is the cocktail designed to improve portfolio diversification against a number of scenarios and severity over the next several months until the picture gets clearer.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/06/12/municipal-bonds-swinging-back-up-if-modestly
Municipal Bonds Swinging Back Up, If Modestly
by Rob Amodeo of Western Asset Management,
After some wildness, the municipal bond market has posted strong overall returns in last few weeks. Investment grade municipal bond returns are positive for 2020

Today’s WSJ has an article on page 1 entitled « Investors Bet on Volatility, Making Markets Even Wilder. » It’s behind a paywall, but subscribers can access. The upshot is that that « Volatility trading has grown so big that trading on unexpected market moves can itself move markets. » For me, it’s hard to call the people doing this trading investors. They don’t care which way the market goes, as long as it goes in one direction or the other. Friday’s market was a good illustration, with the Dow shooting up over 800 points, then plunging to a loss, and then rising sharply in the late afternoon.

Hi Bee,
Great thread! Yep, I'm a big the VWINX fan. It fell but it's back. It's like the good, the bad and the ugly.....lol. Sold 13 funds on the crash.....moved fast to stop losses. The ugly FMIJX....what a loser! I was going to sell it last year, but things were good. So I learned the lesson again....dumbass me. The bad....that would be FSDAX, but I think we're just a vaccine away from a runner. The good tech & growth we all know that. Have bought 5 new funds in June. Looking for the one.....lol......the Dukester says party on!!!!!!!
God bless
the Pudd

@Catch22 and others have been mentioning this very thing, I recall. Makes sense. I had been operating on an "old school" basis. 36% stocks now, 58% bonds. Goal: up to 65% bonds. But I won't be putting in much effort to get there. Looking 5 years out and trying to estimate profit, particularly now, would be a wild guess. Nevertheless, my "go-to" page is still Morningstar. They're telling me via X-Ray that my particular mix of funds will get me a 5-year yield that's 44% better than the Index they're using. As for cap gains, measured by EPS growth over 5 years: 31% better than the S&P500. But maybe that's just wishful thinking, based on normal times, anyhow. Covid-19 changes everything. Anyhow, the dividends I get monthly are not nothing. If I need to start collecting them--- after we move in the Spring to a bigger place, maybe--- they will be a big help with utilities, for example. Lots of solar here, though. If we're fortunate, we'll grab one of those.

Reliable Clements has some thoughts:
https://humbledollar.com/2020/06/farewell-yield/

From the article and then my comments
1) Abandon bonds = Rediculous idea. I have talked to many retirees and they don't want the high volatility that stocks offer
2) Delay Social Security: you can do lots of calculations based on estimates but you can't predict the future. Just start in the middle, my wife and I will start taking SS at age 65 because of the above + Medicare and taxes will be deducted from SS too.
3) immediate fixed annuities: not an easy choice. If you don't have enough you can't afford it. If you have enough you don't need it. You also can't assume treasury yield will stay lower and since I don't care about treasuries I also know funds that pay over 4%. PIMIX stills pays over 5%.
4) tax efficiency: always important.
Most of these generic articles/research hardly ever offer what to do such as 1) not all bonds are treasuries 2) there are several great mutual funds 3) most retirees can't work forever or delay their retirement and don't have enough money. I want to see more ideas.
Example1: in one month, GWMEX,ORNAX,NHMAX made over 6%.
Example 2: I think that Kitces has better ideas than most. See (link) “rising equity glidepath” actually does improve retirement outcomes = start at lower % in stocks and increase gradually

I transferred my Roth IRA to Vanguard a little over one year ago. After the transfer, FMIJX was replaced with VWILX. I did not expect VWILX to significantly outperform FMIJX during severe market downturns.
FMIJX - Max. 2020 Drawdown: -28.24%; YTD Performance: -19.10%
VWILX - Max. 2020 Drawdown: -15.52%; YTD Performance: 6.34%
FMI funds have often performed well during past market selloffs.

A little old (2012), but still timely advice:
A Total Return approached discussed by Vanguard's Colleen Jaconetti:
investing-income-todays-environment

@WABAC said,

I have also seen activity attributed to sports bettors with no place to go.

Another reference:

Robinhood added more than three million funded accounts in the first four months of 2020, and half of customers who opened accounts this year said they were first-time investors, according to Nora Chan, a spokeswoman for the Menlo Park, California-based firm. E*Trade Financial Corp. had 329,000 net new accounts in the first three months of the year, with 260,000 added in March alone, the firm said in its first-quarter earnings statement. That was more than the company’s previous best annual net record.
While day trading can be risky and Portnoy might not be the best role model for young investors, Emanuel and Geraci said they think younger investors entering the market is positive for the long-term.
“The danger to the accessibility of it is very clear because you are bringing people in who may not be terribly qualified,” Emanuel said. “You learn more when you’re losing.”

barstool-sports-dave-portnoy

Hope not too non-topical. Just based on relative performance of some funds I hold and following various print / non-print media:
(1) Following the March meltdown, value stocks began to outperform many other sectors. That was a surprise after their decades old underperformance. Doesn't make up for the bad years, but is a refreshing change for value investors.
(2) A second surprise was a brief powerful surge in energy and other cyclicals (including materials) which began shortly after oil briefly fell into negative territory. Oil is nowhere back to its all-time high over $100, but compared to April's (negative) - $37.63 handle, +$37-$38 today is pretty impressive. No idea how you would even compute a % gain like that.
(3) Not so much a surprise as "long overdue", the dollar weakened substantially over the past 2 weeks. That's supposed to be good for EM curriencies - probably is longer term. But downdrafts in equities like this week's can also serve to weaken those currencies.
If you are well diversified among various sectors and added a bit of risk to your plate during the March pummeling, chances are you're not down too far this year - and in some cases positive. Ted used to say, "Investing isn't a sprint, it's a marathon".
(4) @bee's topic is so stimulating ... here's one more surprise. Have followed real estate funds since dumping one a year ago. Than, sector was up something like 35% for 1 year. Generally afraid of heights - so bailed. What's surprising is both the depth to which they fell early this year as well as the sharp rebound since March / April. Considered opening a spec position in TRREX month or two ago when it was off near 30-35% YTD. Waited too long. Confucius say: He who hesitates is lost.. :)

Congratulations to the Class of 2020! I must admit, when I pictured my eldest daughter graduating high school, I did not imagine her wearing a mask with her cap and gown while receiving her diploma in my backyard. Although the traditional festivities did not occur, I can say that she, along with all other graduates, are moving onto college or entering the work place with valuable lessons in hand. From adapting to online learning to enduring the uncertainty that life can throw our way, this class has displayed incredible resilience and we wish them the best of luck in their future endeavors. Resiliency also comes to mind when I think of the US equity market. COVID-19 resulted in one of the swiftest declines in history, but the rally has been historic too. Before yesterday’s pullback, the S&P 500 was up ~43% and even briefly turned positive on the year. Due to inflated optimism and the market pricing in an exorbitant amount of positive news, the uptick in volatility had been expected./

I listed the funds because they meet the performance and risk parameters I was describing. Some I'm more familiar with than others. Generally I try not to say what I own because each person's needs are different, but I'll go so far as to say that I do own at least one fund on the list.
Beyond that, I'll just comment on a couple of the funds. I don't own BCOIX, but I've written about it a few times. I don't own it but I do own a similar fund with very close performance both short and long term. So I've never found a reason to change or to use it for management diversification.
Nor do I own TRBUX. I haven't written about this fund, but I have written positively about RPHYX and its use as a place for intermediate term (1-2 year) cash. For much of its life, TRBUX has returned significantly less than RPHYX (see chart here). Further, it fell a little harder than RPHYX in March.
But over the past three years, the two have tracked closely. And it bested RPHYX by nearly 3% since the end of March. While I still need to look at why each of these funds did the way they did, the past three years suggest that TRBUX could serve as a fine "near cash" fund.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/in.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN23K033
After jolt, investors still see stocks as long-term bet
Friday, June 12, 2020 10:37 a.m. EDT by Thomson Reuters
By Kate Duguid and Megan Davies
NEW YORK (Reuters) - An interruption to a searing rally gave a jolt to equity investors who had been getting used to weeks of steadily rising U.S. stocks
Imho, nothing is as attractive as long term bets on stocks

Hi guys:
My three best performers year to date are CTFAX +13.75% ... AOFAX +9.96% ... and, FISCX +9.38%.
My three worst performers year to date are PMDAX -23.30% ... HWIAX -20.71% ... and, LPEFX -17.79%.
Thank goodness I hold more in my better performers than my laggards.
I have not dumped any funds for down performance thus far this year because the ones that have been down the most thus far year to date are, by in large, my 30 day up leaders. My three best 30 day up leaders are PMDAX +11.43 ... HWIAX +10.88 ... and, NEWFX +10.32.

In response to your question. I'm thinking that it does along with the high frequency crowd. Look how the machines played the market this past Thursday with the S&P 500 Index moving from a Wednesday close of 3190 to a Thursday close of 3002 for a 5.9% down move. It use to be years back that one percent moves were the big ones and now that the machines are playing the market the five percent moves are becoming quite common. I remember recently reading that some believe that better than fifty percent of the daily volume now comes by way of program trading.
Below is a link to a Seeking Alpha article that states 80% of the volume is believed to come from algo trading programs.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4230982-algo-trading-dominates-80-of-stock-market

Https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/markets-investing/2020/06/12/weekly-investment-strategy
Weekly Investment Strategy
MARKETS AND INVESTING
June 12, 2020
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Key Takeaways
Robust Recovery Is The General ‘School Of Thought’
Investors Hope A Second Wave Is ‘The Road Not Taken’
Valuations Require Investors To ‘Put Their Thinking Caps On’