Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • COP down 7%
    For "starters," it appears it will be several of the Vanguard funds (larger index funds + Windsor) and the Virginia College 529 plans. In a broader sense, 1,364 large blend MFs that own it.
    http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-overview.html?t=COP&region=USA&culture=en_US
    @little5bee Did you have a specific MF in mind when you placed your post in the Fund Discussion category?
  • The Berwyn Funds reorganizing to be part of Chartwell Investment Partners
    @TheShadow Well, that is a "second order" question, which tells me (as if I didn't realize it already) that you've walked around a few blocks in the MF World. I did intend to pursue that question while sniffing around the Chartwell site, but the lights in the room started to flicker and spooky music started to play, so I thought it best to get out and try again later. :)
    I was thinking, given the big honking FEL they have on their 2 young funds, Chartwell might do something with good ol' Z share crap; i.e. as part of the "adsorption" of Berwyn funds, they'd convert present Berwyn shareholder accounts to special Z share status (no load) and create another share class for future retail investors (with the FEL of their current funds). I'm still of this inclination, because it is clear from TriState Capital's press releases that this acquisition is all about asset gathering and fee income extraction. The bank holding company is awfully young, and I suspect these two purchases (Chartwell and now Berwyn) may have been funded almost entirely by debt, so maybe this emphasis was done to placate bank shareholders. I dunno.
    However, your observation does raise alternative possibilities. The question of which way they'll go with initial and subsequent investment also remains an open one (Berwyn 3000/250 vs. Chartwell 1000/100).
    Merging the 2 operations (Berwyn and Chartwell) shouldn't be too taxing; they are about a 5 minute drive from each other:
    http://www.mapquest.com/directions/from/us/pa/berwyn/19312/1189-lancaster-ave-40.043427,-75.453515/to/us/pa/berwyn/19312/1235-westlakes-dr-40.06315,-75.471817
  • Loomis Sayles Is Bullish On Junk Debt
    @Junkster You nailed it, buddy!
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-22/oil-s-collapse-hurting-states-that-were-counting-on-50-a-barrel
    What in the world will those Alaskans do to fill the void, now that they won't be able to simply kick back and collect "their" oil royalty checks every month, after sitting on their asses?
  • Fear, Panic, and All the Data Needed for 2016 Decisions

    Please focus on the summary chart presented on page 10 of the referenced document. It shows S&P 500 returns dating from 1980. The most compelling aspect of the Figure is that it demonstrates “S&P 500 intra-year declines vs. calendar year returns” for each of these recent 36 years. That’s enough data to be statistically relevant. This is a keeper chart.
    From the debts of a terrible recession and including the longest (?) bull market in history of the US stock market, is not statistically relevant.
    Investors' axiom: The value of analysis is inversely correlated to the number of charts used.
    Statistics (charts) are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support.
    Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, John Murphy.
  • Fear, Panic, and All the Data Needed for 2016 Decisions
    Hi Guys,
    Much has been written and discussed relative to the miserable equity market performance year to date. We’ve experienced such sad performance many times historically, but not at the opening bell announcing a new year. Does this signal an exceptionally unhealthy year for the market?
    Maybe, maybe not! Projecting equity returns is an art/science mixture that not many folks have mastered. Certainly not me, and certainly not many of the acknowledged experts. That too is sad, but statistically true.
    A few seasoned and wise investors caution us not to be over-reactive to this dire start. Don’t allow concern to turn into fear to morph into panic.
    Market volatility has long been the bogeyman that promotes profit losing decisions for investors who can’t simply “do nothing”. Often, just standing still is a proper response. Why? Because volatility is just an embedded characteristic of the marketplace. There is plenty of evidence that supports extreme volatility within an annual market cycle.
    Here is a Link to a J.P. Morgan report that provides a serious historical perspective:
    https://www.jpmorganfunds.com/blobcontentheader/202/900/1158474868049_jp-littlebook.pdf
    It is J.P. Morgan’s annual report on “A Guide to the Markets” for 2016. The report incorporates many charts that an investor might find helpful in quelling fear and panic. If you are even mildly statistically inclined, you’ll love the presentation material. It is a gold mine of useful data. You get to interpret these terrific data charts based on your own experiences, goals, preferences, and biases.
    Please focus on the summary chart presented on page 10 of the referenced document. It shows S&P 500 returns dating from 1980. The most compelling aspect of the Figure is that it demonstrates “S&P 500 intra-year declines vs. calendar year returns” for each of these recent 36 years. That’s enough data to be statistically relevant. This is a keeper chart.
    Note the 27 years of positive annual equity returns and compare the returns columns to the “red dots”. The “red dots” denote the intra-year decline during each year.
    If you were an especially loss adverse investor, it is likely that you might have abandoned the S&P 500 even when the annual reward was highly positive by year’s end. Market volatility or noise could have frightened you to make a rash, imprudent decision. The courage to staying the course during these years was well rewarded.
    Note also the rather subdued downside volatility recorded over the last 5 or 6 years. The behavioral wizards might suggest that the recency bias from those experiences has preconditioned a worried investor to be overly reactive as volatility reestablishes itself once again.
    I sure can’t predict what the market returns will be this year. But the referenced J.P. Morgan curve suggests that some patience is warranted. Market volatility is now high, and that by itself could be a warning signal. Conflicting signals are the rule and not the exception in the investment world. That contributes to risk, and that’s precisely why there is an equity premium of 5 to 6 percent.
    Stay cool, stay healthy, and stay the course. I plan to do all three. Unfortunately, plans, execution, and outcomes often diverge.
    Honestly, you likely need more than the J.P. Morgan report, but I wanted your attention. Sorry for the exaggeration, but I didn't want you to miss this really good stuff.
    Best Regards.
  • The Berwyn Funds reorganizing to be part of Chartwell Investment Partners
    @heezsafe
    Since the Killen Group is being acquired, what are the chances are that those with existing investments in the Berwyn Funds will be converted to "I" shares (similar to what happened with the Stratton Funds being acquired by Sterling Capital. I purchased the Stratton Small Cap Fund before the cut-off; I now have Sterling Capital Special Opportunities "I" class upon Jim0445's recommendation or the acquisition of the Pennsylvania Avenue Event Driven Fund (in which Quaker grandfathered existing Penn shareholders from paying the "A" class load))?
    Chartwell's prospectus for the Short Duration High Yield Fund indicates that on January 15, 2016 the "A" shares were terminated and only the "I" shares exist. Investors in the "A" shares had the right to convert to "I" shares.
    It appears the same cannot be said for the Small Cap Value Fund though.
  • PIMCO Income (PIMIX)
    Hi @heezsafe
    I find these numbers (M* performance link below) to be in line for 2015 and 1 year total return numbers.
    Placement of this fund to other similar funds still finds performance to be very good, eh?
    One could have and some have done much worst in this bond category for the past 1, 3 and 5 years returns.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=PIMIX&region=usa&culture=en_US
    Regards,
    Catch
  • PIMCO Income (PIMIX)
    Remember that PONAX/PIMIX has a (quasi-) defined distribution policy. Last year, the fund had so much extra dvd flowing in that, by year's end, they had a special dvd distribution they had to release (12/29), just ahead of the fund's usual dvd payout (12/31), so that contributed to making it seem like the fund has had an unusual drawdown, which it really hasn't (in terms of total return). Another minor contributor has been the fact the fund chose to hold "a little bit extra" of EM bonds and we have seem how that has gone, haven't we? :(
    It also appeared the fund had, at least for a time, a short position on both ends of the yield curve, on ST and LT Treasuries, but I haven't checked the latest asset allocation.... and that could have been my imagination at work, at the end of 2015.
  • Buffalo Emerging Opportunities and Small Cap Funds reopen
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1135300/000089418916006930/buffalo_497e.htm
    497 1 buffalo_497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 333-56018; 811-10303
    Buffalo Emerging Opportunities Fund
    Buffalo Small Cap Fund
    Each a series of Buffalo Funds®
    Supplement dated January 21, 2016
    to the Prospectus dated July 29, 2015, as supplemented on October 13, 2015
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Effective immediately, the Buffalo Emerging Opportunities Fund (the “Emerging Opportunities Fund”) and the Buffalo Small Cap Fund (the “Small Cap Fund”) (collectively, the “Funds”), each a series of Buffalo Funds, will re-open to new investors. The Emerging Opportunities Fund had been closed to new investors since November 18, 2013 and the Small Cap Fund had been closed to new investors since April 26, 2010. All references to the Funds being closed to new investors are hereby deleted from the Prospectus.
    The Funds are reopening because Kornitzer Capital Management, Inc., the Funds’ investment advisor, believes that cash flows would allow the Funds to take advantage of attractive opportunities in each Fund’s universe of companies.
    The Funds will remain open until further notice.
    For additional details, please call the Funds at 1-800-49-BUFFALO.
    Please retain this supplement with your Prospectus.
  • Seeking Income ? Check Out REITs
    FYI: Many investors and strategists are guardedly bullish about income prospects for real estate investment trusts (REITs) this year. Todd Rosenbluth, director of ETF and mutual fund research for S&P Capital IQ, likes the outlook for REIT dividend increases this year if REIT fundamentals remain strong, "as we think they will," he told IBD via email
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MjEzOTYwMDM=
    Enlarged Graphic:
    http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WMUT90-012116.gif&docId=790651&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=829&caption=&id=790652
  • Loomis Sayles Is Bullish On Junk Debt
    High Yield Energy: Fear+ Forced Selling = More of the Same ?
    Bond Funds Remain Confident as Crude Rout Worsens
    Published January 20, 2016 Markets Reuters
    More investors may lose patience in the contrarian bet and pull their money, forcing managers to sell energy credits to raise cash, said Jeff Tjornehoj, head of Americas research at Lipper.
    Big bond investors who have bet on high-yield oil producers are sticking to losing bets, waiting for a turnaround in the price of crude, even though their performance has suffered and fund assets have shrunk as oil has plunged.
    "We have not capitulated in this down trade," Buchanan said. He said it was "just a matter of time" before oil producers would begin to significantly cut back production. He said he would rethink his energy exposure if he saw more compelling yield opportunities in sectors other than energy.
    Western Asset Short Duration High Income Fund SHIAX
    Investors pulled $348 million from Buchanan's fund last year, cutting its assets to $700 million from a peak of $1.5 billion in June 2014, Lipper data shows. The fund has lost 4 percent this year.
    EVBAX
    Gaffney increased her exposure to energy bonds overall in the fourth quarter from 11.2 percent to 16 percent, with the fund's bets on high-yield energy bonds increasing from 3.3 percent to 5.8 percent.
    She reiterated a call she made in October to Reuters that a number of her fund's holdings could gain by 30 percent or more over the next two years.
    Investors pulled $856 million from Gaffney's fund last year, slashing the fund's assets by over 40 percent to $780 million from a peak of about $2 billion last February, according to Lipper data. The fund has lost 6.5 percent this year.
    BJBHX
    Aberdeen Asset Management, said the Aberdeen Global High Income Fund cut its exposure to energy overall to 7.3 percent and to high-yield E&P debt to 2.6 percent, from 10 percent and 5 percent, respectively, in October. He said, however, that the cash raised from the sales may eventually be used to invest in more high-yield energy credits.
    Investors withdrew about 46 percent of the Aberdeen fund's assets last year, reducing its size to $989 million, according to Lipper data. The fund has lost 3 percent this year.
    The BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Energy Index posted its second-worst week ever last week, delivering a loss of 8.7 percent, exceeded only by an 11.1 percent loss in October 2008. The average yield on an energy junk bond hit a record high of 18.44 percent on Tuesday.
    Lipper's Tjornehoj said that managers may eventually be right, and energy spreads will narrow. "But by that time they may have very little money in the portfolio to crow about."
    http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/01/20/bond-funds-remain-confident-as-crude-rout-worsens.html
    image
    Photo source
    http://fuelfix.com/blog/2016/01/22/moodys-places-120-oil-and-gas-companies-on-review-for-downgrade/#36696101=8
    Moody's places 175 oil, gas and mining companies on review for downgrade
    Jan 22 2016, 08:28 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
    Moody's places 120 oil and gas companies on review for a downgrade, in a sweeping global review that includes all major regions..Warning of "a substantial risk that prices may recover much more slowly over the medium term than many companies expect
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/3045856-moodys-places-175-oil-gas-mining-companies-review-downgrade
    Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:37pm EST
    Moody's puts 175 commodity firms on review over bleak outlook
    LONDON | BY RON BOUSSO
    It (Moody's)said it was likely to conclude the review by the end of the first quarter which could include multiple-notch downgrades for some companies, particularly in North America.
    A ratings downgrade makes borrowing more expensive for companies.
    "Even under a scenario with a modest recovery from current prices, producing companies and the drillers and service companies that support them will experience rising financial stress with much lower cash flows," it said.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-ratings-idUSKCN0V00Y6
    Rating Action: Moody's reviews energy companies in the US for downgrade
    Global Credit Research - 21 Jan 2016
    https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-reviews-energy-companies-in-the-US-for-downgrade--PR_342569
  • Loomis Sayles Is Bullish On Junk Debt
    @junkster Where do you see comments from Jim Rogers didn't know if he was even alive .
    Still around albeit I have found him over the years to be more of a contrary indicator. Always thought of him as a doom and gloomer and a gold bug.
    http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/01/05/jim-rogers-long-china-short-u-s-junk-bonds.html
  • Drop in balanced funds
    Balanced funds travel many paths, eh?
    One past outstanding fund is/was VILLX. However, apparently the equity area of this fund moved more and more into the sm/mid cap area over the past 18 months or so; and the this fund has taken a beating. The fund used to run among the top 5% of its peers during a several year period......no longer.
    One may suppose for true word meanings that a fund is as balanced as the manager and/or owner agree upon. True balance is 50/50, at least when working with a lawn mower blade.
    Most here have a mix of holdings that are "balanced" to their style or liking, yes?
  • THe Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Trim Losses In Last Hour Of Trading
    GILD hit a low of 86.33 but closed at 90.55 intraday, fwtw.
  • Drop in balanced funds
    Seems to me to tend to the slightly less risky, based on my uninformed historical lookbacks and comparisons. (How's that for handwaving?) Its past performance looks not bad when it comes to slumps (bond portion w Gundlach sauce), and its general outperformance (less so vs CAPE etf, which you might want to look at) at every increment since inception is interesting. 50-50 w PONDX looks similarly appealing when you backtest it, though I would probably do 60-40 since DSENX has this special bondish component.
  • Drop in balanced funds
    @joe I couldn't agree more. How FPACX has held ~35% in cash for more than a year, plus a smattering of bonds, and still managed to do so poorly is beyond me. I think I'm still a long-term believer, but I have many more doubts than I used to.
  • Gator Opportunities Fund reorganizing
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1567138/000116204416001395/gator497201601.htm
    497 1 gator497201601.htm
    January 20, 2016
    GATOR OPPORTUNITIES FUND
    Supplement to the Prospectus dated July 29, 2015, as supplemented December 21, 2015
    On December 21, 2015, the Gator Opportunities Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Gator Series Trust (the “Trust”), notified shareholders that, pursuant to various considerations and approvals by the Trust’s Board of Trustees (the “Board”), the Trust expected that, subject to approval by the shareholders of the Fund, the Fund would be entering into a transaction with BPV Family of Funds (the “BPV Trust”) for the purpose of reorganizing the Fund into BPV Small Cap Fund (the “Transaction”). The Fund had prepared, with the assistance of the BPV Trust, a draft proxy statement regarding the Transaction, which was filed on Form N-14 with the Securities and Exchange Commission on December 14, 2015, in anticipation of finalizing the same for a shareholder meeting. However, the Trust was informed on January 15, 2016, that BPV Capital Management, LLC (“BPV”), the investment adviser to the BPV Trust, had determined not to go forward with the Transaction.
    In light of the foregoing, effective immediately, the Trust has terminated the public offering of the Fund’s shares and will discontinue the Fund’s operations and liquidate no later than March 21, 2016 (the “Closing Date”). Shares of the Fund are no longer available for purchase.
    The Board, in consultation with the Fund’s investment adviser, Gator Capital Management, LLC (the “Adviser”), determined by written consent dated January 20, 2016 (the “Written Consent”) to discontinue the Fund’s operations based on, among other factors, the Adviser’s belief that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to discontinue the Fund’s operations. Through the date of the Fund’s liquidation, currently scheduled to take place on the Closing Date, the Adviser will continue to waive fees and reimburse expenses of the Fund, as necessary, in order to maintain the Fund’s fees and expenses at their current level, as specified in the Prospectus.
    In the Written Consent, the Board of Trustees directed that: (i) all of the Fund’s portfolio securities be liquidated to cash in an orderly manner on or before the Closing Date; and (ii) all outstanding shareholder accounts on the Closing Date be closed and the proceeds of each account be sent to the shareholder’s address of record or to such other address as directed by the shareholder including special instructions that may be needed for Individual Retirement Accounts (“IRAs”) and qualified pension and profit sharing fund accounts. As a result of the liquidation of the Fund’s portfolio securities described above, the Fund’s normal exposure to investments will be reduced and eventually eliminated. Accordingly, shareholders should not expect the Fund to achieve its stated investment objective.
    Shareholders may continue to freely redeem their shares on each business day during the Fund’s liquidation process. The distribution of proceeds from the closing of shareholder accounts remaining on the Closing Date will be considered for tax purposes a sale of Fund shares by shareholders, and shareholders should consult with their own tax advisors to ensure its proper treatment on their income tax returns. In addition, shareholders invested through an IRA or other tax-deferred account should consult the rules regarding the reinvestment of these assets. In order to avoid a potential tax issue, shareholders may choose to authorize a direct transfer of their retirement account assets to another tax-deferred retirement account before the Fund liquidates. Typically, shareholders have 60 days from the date of the liquidation to invest the proceeds in another IRA or qualified retirement account; otherwise the liquidation proceeds may be required to be included in the shareholder’s taxable income for the current tax year.
    If you have any questions regarding this Supplement, please call (813)-282-7870.
    Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Reference
  • Drop in balanced funds
    DSENX just sounds too exotic for me. But $645M AUM already. How would you rate the riskiness of such a strategy, @davidmoran?
  • Drop in balanced funds
    Since Dec 1, SPX is down ~10%, GLRBX down half that, and everyone else mentioned is in between, FPACX and OAKBX worse than PRWCX and MAPOX.
    (DSENX and PONDX 50-50, which is what I am trending toward for say 3/4 of my holdings this year and after, is best of all, down ~4%.)