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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Seafarer Growth and Income fund
    @Crash. You know what you might have done right thing. I've successfully transitioned to having a mercenary attitude toward funds. This argument about a funds "potential" is BS. People have to make decisions in the real world at a given point of time and don't have the benefit of hindsight. Shame on people like M* shaming people with "investors are effing stupid and always sell / buy at wrong time". They make their money publishing articles. We have to earn our money and then figure out how to grow it. They don't have to grow their money but grow their revenue stream. Easy to criticize investors and money managers when you are running a business to critique everyone.
    You do what you think is right for you. Everyone else can take a flying F. It do own SFGIX because I'm still in the plus column.
    PS - Finally feels good to have my single malt this weekend.
    Even tonight, I see SFGIX is not doing badly compared to peers, lately. (YTD and 2019.) But as has been noted here often enough, that fund is a rare breed. Hard to compare it with the run of the mill stuff in that category.... My international stuff is virtually ALL in PRIDX these days, and foreign is a small slice now, and going forward, deliberately. (7% of total.) Single Malts. Now, yer talking! Limited selections around here, especially with the virus restricting everything. Lately, I've imbibed the Bushmills "Red Bush" variety of Irish whisky. I do believe it's smoother than the original. But I do miss a swig of The Balvenie. Liquor is so expensive here. The good news is: you can get it at the supermarket along with your eggs and butter and cheese and tofu. ;)
  • IOFIX- Better late than never
    Just another way of saying that it was goosing returns by investing too much ("many of the securities the Fund holds") in high risk sectors of the market that no one would want when the market turned south.
    Barron's, March 23:
    The $2.3 billion mortgage-focused AlphaCentric Income Opportunities Fund (IOFIX) lost 31% last week alone, and reportedly put $1 billion of securities up for sale on Sunday.
    The fund focused on lower-rated tranches of residential mortgage-backed securities, with about 60% of its holdings rated BBB or lower, according to Morningstar, which had a five-star rating on the fund.
    It was also said to have relatively high exposure to “credit risk transfer securities,” or CRTs, a type of mortgage-backed security introduced after the financial crisis. Those CRTs face especially high risk for losses tied to loan modifications. For example, if a distressed borrower negotiates a lower interest rate with an agency, that interest reduction would be passed along to the CRT holder at a loss, according to Goldman Sachs.
    AlphaCentric said in a statement that “like many other funds, [the income opportunities fund] is moving expeditiously to address the unprecedented market conditions. With the lack of liquidity in the marketplace, the most effective way to obtain favorable prices is to offer a wider range of securities for bid instead of a smaller number of specific securities. This broadens the potential universe of buyers to try and obtain the most favorable prices.”
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/mortgage-backed-securities-get-hammered-feds-move-may-not-be-enough-51584980932
    (I was able to read w/o subscription)
  • Investors Bet Giant Companies Will Dominate After Crisis
    +1 @Zolta. The link that JohnN provided is to an interview with a top doctor at the U Pitt Hospital system, so one shouldn't dismiss his 0.25% fatality rate out of hand.
    That 0.25% rate does however assume that everyone who needs an ICU bed gets one, which has been the case in the US so far, unlike, say, Northern Italy last month or Brazil or Russia right now. We could be heading there too IMHO if we open up too fast.
    Anyway, 0.25% times US population (331 millions) gives you over 800,000 deaths.
  • Investors Bet Giant Companies Will Dominate After Crisis
    JohnN and Mark, the numbers you quote are using different denominators. The 5.8% number is deaths divided by the number of patients testing positive for the Covid-19 virus. The number 0.45-0.9 is the universe of potentially positive patients if they were tested. Several studies show that number may be 10 or more times higher than the denominators currently being used. The actual mortality rate won't be known until most of the United States population are tested tor both the virus and for antibodies to the virus. Actually, we may never know because the data is suspect of being manipulated or suppressed for political reasons.
    The following link provides a good statistical overview.
    https://nucleuswealth.com/articles/updated-coronavirus-statistics-cases-deaths-mortality-rate/
    Zolta
  • GW&K GLOBAL ALLOCATION FUND (mbeax)
    The name is new, the daily management is new, the global allocation objective is new. Only the family (AMG) is unchanged. I would treat it as any other new fund - check into the managers, the management company (now GW&K, was Chicago Equity Partners).
    With the change of direction, high turnover is to be expected (cap gains exposure 13%). Tax exposure could be amplified by outflows, as realized gains could be spread among fewer remaining shareholders. That's some motivation to switch, unless you own it in a tax-sheltered account, or if your taxes would be even worse if you sold out.
    It's a pretty small fund ($146M AUM), so it should not be especially weighed down by its old portfolio. That is, in most respects this is just another new fund. The question is, would you buy this new fund? Forget about what it was.
  • Investors Bet Giant Companies Will Dominate After Crisis
    So, from the CDC - approximately 1,150,00 cases, 66,746 deaths. 5.8% death rate. So far.
    6.3% in MN to date. (6228 cases, 395 deaths)
  • Did Warren Buffett Buy Stocks in the Coronavirus Crash? The Answer Might Surprise You
    If Buffet was buying, he would be ignoring the indicator he has said is his favorite. So you have to ask what does he see that makes him thing the market isn't over valued?
    The way people are buying, I suspect he sees rather more greed than fear in the market.
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/buffett-indicator-surges-record-high-signaling-potential-crash-2020-4-1029149296
    image
  • Investors Bet Giant Companies Will Dominate After Crisis
    Hi sir catch22
    UPMC doctor argues COVID-19 not as deadly as feared, says its hospitals will shift back to normal
    https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/umpc-argues-covid-19-not-as-deadly-as-feared-says-its-hospitals-will-shift-back-to-normal.html
    0.25%
    Misread from 0.45%...
    Could also be relate to geographic areas also
    I think I read somewhere early march death rate maybe up to 9%...
    'From one donald to another donald'
    Pls stay safe regardless
  • Investors Bet Giant Companies Will Dominate After Crisis
    johnN
    You placed the below information at Old_Skeets barometer thread, but I'm not going to clutter his thread with my request.
    virus data may not be that deadly after all the precautions measures implemented. Some predict maybe 0.45-0.9% death rate now instead of 4-10% initially,
    As COVID will continue to alter the investing markets going forward..........
    PLEASE provide your source for the following:
    Some predict maybe 0.45-0.9% death rate
    Thank you,
    Catch
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    virus data may not be that deadly after all the precautions measures implemented. Some predict maybe 0.45-0.9% death rate now instead of 4-10% initially, (1-3 millions death feb20 if antibodies tests statistics are somewhat predictative). Hopefully the 2nd rebounds are limited, many studies may found new virus cure/drugs/protocols to limitloss of valuable lives, and may allow surging V shape recovery.
    I have been more optimistic and have been buying [especially weigh more toward enery oil.] May take least one two months/quarters for oil to stabilize and hopefully recover once more states/cities/counties countries open up more
    But you never know, may pundits predicting may take anther 20_40%loss these coming months/quater and maybe massive depressions..
  • "Core" bond fund holdings
    Hi guys, For those that hold American Funds ABNDX (Bond Fund of America) is listed at MFO as a core bond fund. It has a MFO Risk Rating of 1 (Very Conserative) and a MFO Rating of 4 (Above Average). I don't currently own this fund; but, I just might in the nearterm as I expand my fixed income sleeve from nine to twelve funds. In addition, I need to learn more about their new fund MIAQX. I'll be calling my advisor next week to see if I can not get more information on this new offering. Generally, they do a lucheon sponsored by American Funds to present their new offerings. The last new offering that I bought was New World and that was a good number of years ago. With this, they might have marked me off their ... free ... lunch list. In addition, JHNBX, NEFRX, PINCX are three other fixed income funds that I'am looking at as well. JHNBX has a MFO Risk Rating of 2 (conserative) and a MFO Rating of 3 (Average) ... NEFRX has a MFO Risk Rating of 2 (Conserative) and a MFO Rating of 5 (Best) ... and, PINCX has a MFO Risk Rating of 2 (Conserative) and a MFO Rating of 5 (Best).
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi guys. With Friday's stock market decline the S&P 500 pullbacked 81 points, from 2912 to 2831, resulting in a 2.8% loss. With this, there was a numerical reading change, in the barometer's metrics, from 136 to 138. However, this still leaves the Index overbought on the barometer's scale. When the barometer moves off of ... Overbought ... I'll make another post.
    A review: There are three main data feeds used in the barometer. They are an earnings feed, a breadth feed and a technical score feed. In addition, there are a few other data influnces that are often times used as well to produce (or confirm) a reading.
  • Capital Group Launches Multi-Sector Income Fund
    It's got at least 21 different tickers (share classes). Class F-1 is MIAWX. ER is 0.90%
    Here's the prospectus with all the tickers.
    Haven't looked too closely yet. At least some of the managers are picked from other American Funds, so that may give a sense of how this fund will operate.
  • Gold SWOT: 24 straight weeks of positive gold-backed ETF inflows
    Yes, SGGDX was my only equity fund up today +2.28%, YTD +18.11% and 1 YR + 63.60%. Very lucky I finally decided to invest in a Gold fund again after all these years.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    All my needs are met by the following
    1) usually invested at 99+% mostly bond OEFs. In the last 10 years I was only 4-5 weeks at 99+% cash. Another 6-7 weeks at 30-40% cash.
    2) Trading riskier assets several times annually for hours to days and back to bond funds
    3) Be flexible at all times. That could be any trade, be in cash, whatever I need to meet my goals.
    4) Be in only 2-4 funds because it's easy to follow and trade. All my funds must do well at all times otherwise will be replaced.
    5) I compare the above to buy and hold of several portfolios and I come ahead.
    6) I never believed in income as my first criteria, I always look for risk/reward which is selecting the best performing funds with the best SD, Max Draw, Sortino, Sharpe, more.
    7) I never believed in wide diversification. In the last several years I mainly invest in US LC no SC/international...or..I mainly used HY Munis + MBS bonds and so on.
    ==================
    In the last 3 days, the VIX started to go up from around 31 to 37. If it goes over 40 it's a warning sign. Q2 started with -2.6% loss, we will find out soon if the next leg down started. Some of the good news is behind us. Huge fiscal and monetary support. The coronavirus cases are going down. Earnings are not as bad because the first 2 months of Q1 were normal.
    But, Q2 started with 30 million unemployed, a bad economy, and bad earnings. How long can the stock market disregard it?
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Thankyou sir Old_Skeet;
    What fund(s) have you consistently added to /place new monies to past 12 months
    How did you do last quater /ytd [neg 7%down?] Rough estimates if you don't mind discussing/disclose
  • One tsp fund 16% ahead in April
    https://www.fedsmith.com/2020/05/01/one-tsp-fund-ahead-about-16-april/
    /One tsp fund 16% ahead in April
    2020 has not been good to stock market investors so far but there was a big turnaround in stock prices in April. As a result, the overall results for the year are better than they were at this time last month./
    Couple of good ones considering looking at
    F funds 4.94% 12months
    C fund +12 in april
  • Some of USAA's funds redesignated as "A" class
    The share classes of USAA (now Victory) funds resemble those of American Century funds:
    • Noload retail: USAA "Fund Share" (e.g. USTEX) and American Century "Investor" (e.g. TWCUX).
    • Class A adds load, 12b-1 fee; often load waived w/ fee-based advisor, e.g. UTELX and TWUAX
    • Institutional shares; these are new for the USAA funds. Examples ULTIX and TWUIX.
    American Century does offer a whole slew of additional classes: C, R, R5, R6. Victory funds (other than the USAA funds) may also offer classes C, R, R6, and Y.
    The line between noload and load funds got blurred a quarter century ago. ISTM what matters is what you actually pay, not what the fund is allowed to charge.