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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi @bee. Thank you for your question. Have I ever considered using other funds and/or etf's as a benchmark? Yes, but I have not found a conserative asset allocation fund that generates the income stream that my master portfolio kicks off. And, besides being a former corporate credit manager I limit how much I will hold in any one fund. With this I spread it out over a number of positions.
    In addition, I use to be more active and engage spiff positions more often as a source of income generation via realized capital gains. Now, I hold a good slug of CTFAX (about a 5% weighting) and I let this fund do this automatically for me. Thus, this has reduced the number of times I have been an active investor with my use of spiffs. I've got a lot of moving parts within my portfolio ... perhaps, to many for some ... but, not to many for me.
    Again in review below is how I govern my portfolio as it does everything needed to meet my needs now in retirement. Why change now?
    Old_Skeet's All Weather Asset Allocation.
    My all weather asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides sufficient income, maximizes diversification, minimizes volatility, and provides long-term returns.
    The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback. In addition, cash helps stabilize a portfolio during stock market volatility. Example of investments held in this area are cash, money market mutual funds and CD's.
    The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type funds. Some examples of investments held in this area are AZNAX, JGIAX & PONAX.
    The 40% held in the equity area provides me some dividend income along with some growth, that equities generally provide, that offsets the effects of inflation plus, over time. Some examples of investments held in this area are IDIVX, NEWFX & SPECX.
    My five largest positions are AMECX, CAIBX, CTFAX, ISFAX & FKINX. Two of these funds I have had positions in since my early teens AMECX & FKINX). I'm now 72+ years in age.
    Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been. In this way principal grows over time.
    This works well for me and I have no plans to change the concept. I encourage others to develop something that works well for them and to stick with it even if is a two fund portfolio consisting of a stock index and a bond index fund. If this is what you want then why not use SFAAX? It's yield is too low for me at 1%.
  • Get Ready for the Return of Inflation Fed actions have increased...money...at a blistering rate
    Howdy folks,
    Bee is spot on, in the near term the issue is Deflation due to no demand for much of anything. Down the road, post vaccine, we might see inflation. So much of the problem with inflation is the gov't and how they report the statistics. The numbers are so massaged that it really doesn't reflect reality on the street. Right now, we're experiencing about 10% but the accounting tricks they use these days (e.g. which housing stat - own or rent?; hedonic adjustments, etc.). At shadow stats, the government has us at about 1-2% while John has us at 8-9%.
    Frankly, the situation is so fluid and undetermined that WTF knows?
    and so it goes,
    peace, and flatten the curve,
    rono
    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
  • Weitz Funds Fixed Income Insights: A Storm Of Opportunities
    https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1119224/weitz-funds-fixed-income-insights-a-storm-of-opportunities
    Weitz Funds Fixed Income Insights: A Storm Of Opportunities
    By Thomas D. Carney, CFA, and Nolan P. Anderson
    April 28, 2020 |
    /The analogies to describe the year's first quarter, particularly the month of March, could seemingly fill a book. The unfortunate human and economic drama that continues to unfold across the globe will certainly be forever etched on the world's collective memory. And while it's important to provide this update on the markets (as out of date as it may soon become in this rapidly changing environment), our hearts, minds and prayers remain with all of those who have suffered and are suffering the direct human effects of the coronavirus outbreak. It's also important to remember those who have suffered direct economic consequences resulting from the fight against the disease, including a historic number of job losses. Since the whole world is in this predicament together, hopefully the words from World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus will bring solace: that the “amazing spirit of human solidarity must become more infectious than the virus itself” and that “we can only succeed together./
    Anyone have WCPBX
    Any thoughts regarding bonds market and where we maybe heading from here?
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi guys. For the period of March 27th to April 30th Old_Skeet's market barometer which follows the S&P 500 Index moved from a high reading of 180 (Extremely Oversold) to a reading of 136 (Overbought). Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. Short volume in the Index (SPY) remained in 60% range for the period while the VIX (which is a measure of volatility) moved from a reading of 54 to 34. Money flow for the period was positive moving from a reading of 55 to 83. The percent number of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average rose from 2% to 76%. I'm finding that the percent of stocks currently above the 200 day moving average is 26%. With this, I'm thinking that there is, over time, more upside to come as earnings improve. But, volatility remains in play as well. For me ... if I were a buyer of equities ... I would buy the dips as the Index is in an upward trend with some room to run based upon the percent above the 200 day moving average of 26%. I feel this, though, will be a process as the Index works its way North and out of correction territory as earnings improve. Again, for now, the barometer scores the Index as overbought.
    I have the Index moving (during the period) from a reading of 2541 to a reading of 2912 for a 14.6% gain. The Index's dividend yield moved from 2.29% to 2.05% while the US10YrT moved from a yield of 0.68% to 0.63%. With this, the yield advantage goes to the stock Index. I have the stock Index up from its 52 week low by 30.2% but below its 52 week high by 14.0% remaining in correction territory. I'm finding that the three best performing sectors, for the period, being energy ... consumer discretionary ... and, materials.
    For the period, my three best performing funds were all found in the growth area of my portfolio and they were FKASX +16.36% ... KAUAX +17.79% ... and, AOFAX +15.71% Year to date my three best performing are CTFAX +10.4% ... AOFAX +2.3% ... and PCOXX +0.4%. Overall, my portfolio is performing much like a conserative asset allocation fund would; but, with a balanced towards income generation theme as my yield is above the average for a conserative allocation fund.
    So ... What is Old_Skeet doing now that May is here? I usually follow the Sell In May and Go Away Axiom and do my spring rebalance. With this, I'll be going through my rebalance process since I am heavy on the equity side (at 48%) and light on the fixed side (at 39%). My current target asset allocation is 15% cash, 40% fixed and 45% equity. My neutral asset allocation is 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. With this, I have chosen to remain equity heavy by +5% and cash light by -5%. This is because most of my overweight is in good dividend paying equity income funds which are paying a dividend yield in the 4% range while cash is yielding next to nothing. And, I'm with my thought that stocks still have some upside left in them as we move through the year as I explained above.
    At this time, I'm not sure if I'll continue with weekly updates or return to a monthly reporting format. However, I will continue to post barometer reading changes as they occur through the summer with little to no write ups in these post. In this way, those that follow the barometer will be aware of barometer reading changes for information purposes only.
    Take care ... as it is now time for Old_Skeet to throttle down his investment actvity where I can more fully enjoy the summer.
    Thanks for stopping by and reading. I sincerely wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Some of USAA's funds redesignated as "A" class
    Schwab sells Victory Class A funds NTF to its retail investors. It doesn't seem likely that it would turn around and charge the load only to its newly acquired USAA clients.
    Schwab bought USAA management for its client base, both 1.5 million current and 10 million potential. It wouldn't make any sense for Schwab to dissuade its larger potential audience by taking advantage of the USAA members already signed up.
    It's more likely that these clients would be sold the new Institutional class shares. From the new prospectus:
    The Institutional Shares are available for investment through a USAA discretionary managed account program and through certain advisory programs sponsored by financial intermediaries, such as brokerage firms, investment advisors, financial planners, third-party administrators, and insurance companies.
    From the April 23, 2020 Schwab Managed Account Services™ Disclosure Brochure:
    NTF funds used in the UMP [legacy USAA Managed Portfolios] Program include USAA Victory Mutual Funds, managed by Victory Capital, from which Schwab may also receive shareholder servicing fees.
    We've seen this sturm und drang before. When PIMCO did away with its D class shares, there was much handwringing about how investors would have to pay loads for PIMCO's A shares.
  • Some of USAA's funds redesignated as "A" class
    From a previous rant:
    USAA recently "sold" their Investment division to Charles Schwab for $1.8 Billion. That's $1,800,000,000 in cash. USAA will transfer $90 Billion in assets to Schwab sometime in May 2020. I asked how individual investors (there are 1 million) will benefit from this sale. I am still waiting for that answer. This latest move may not mean anything for the orphan investors who are leaving USAA for Schwab. Doesn't look like individual account holders will receive any of this $1.8B as a "bonus" for this asset transfer. 
    The 1 million investors seem due some it not all of this windfall.
  • Some of USAA's funds redesignated as "A" class
    USAA recently sold its mutual funds to Victory and its management company (including its brokerage and managed accounts) to Schwab.
    The current (August 1, 2019) prospectus starts by saying that "The Adviser Shares listed in this prospectus are available for purchase generally through financial intermediaries by investors who seek advice from them." This is the share class that's being changed, not the retail, noload "Fund Shares" class of shares.
    The Fund Shares are cheaper because they don't have a 12b-1 fee, unlike the Adviser Shares. They are currently available NTF at Schwab. For example, here's Schwab's page for USTEX.
    Best guess is that this change is to better align the USAA funds with Victory's share classes. Victory Class A shares are also available NTF at Schwab, though they carry that 12b-1 fee. Here's Schwab's page for the Victory fund SRVEX.
    As near as I can tell, just move along, nothing here to see.
    FWIW, here's the new (June 29, 2020[sic]) prospectus. It adds the new class of Institutional Shares.
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
    [and later ...]
    Corp bonds rated invested grade were down 13% from the top. Black swan is unknown ... Pimco top ones PCI, PDI lost 30-40%.

    The funds you look at do seem broken. As corporates and MBSs recovered, these funds continued going down. Which is why, as Baseball_Fan wrote, it's important to know what you own, not just what their "stats" are.
    Every once in awhile, a picture really is worth a thousand words.
    Here's a graph showing YTD curves for MBB (iShares MBS), PTRIX (Pimco MBS fund), VTC (Vanguard Total Corporate ETF), VCFAX, and SEMRX.
    All dipped to varying degrees, but the first three recovered and are positive on the year.
    VCFAX flattened and is down 13%; SEMRX continued to plunge and is down 22%.
    SEMMX is negative over 1, 3, and 5 years. (It has not been around for a decade yet.) Next to that, DODIX looks pretty good. A problem with putting too much faith in volatility figures over a generally quiescent period is that one is blinded to latent risks.
    These "black swan" events come almost like clockwork. 2020, 2009, 2000, 1987, 1974. Pandemic risk is unknown? That sounds like a politician.
    "Over the past quarter century, warnings have been clear and consistent from both US government leaders, scientists, and global health officials: A pandemic was coming—and whenever it arrived, it would be catastrophic to the global economy."
    https://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-pandemic-warnings-trump-ignored/
    politician? not really. As retiree that wants to make more without the volatility the numbers show it. If you don't understand how and what you do like most then just invest like most. Buy and Hold stocks and high rated bonds for ballast.
    You can see in 20 years black swan happened every 10 years.
    My thread was a proof of what I did, see (this)
    You can also see (this) and what I did, using trades.
    BTW, Today at 10 AM I sold all my stocks(all in QQQ) that I bought earlier in April and posted at M*. I'm not predicting it's the top, I sold sold because I made money the way I do by trading.
    But, you are not the first or last that tried to dismiss it :-) and it looks to me that every post I make you think it's your obligation to criticize.
  • MOAT vs. DSEEX/DSENX
    @Bitzer - there was an earlier discussion re: DSEEX/DSENX you might care to look over. I'm not sure if it addresses your question but maybe.
    DSEEX/DSENX
  • Some of USAA's funds redesignated as "A" class
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908695/000168386320007766/f5097d1.htm
    (see link to see table of affected funds)
    The Board of Trustees of USAA Mutual Funds Trust has approved redesignating each Fund's current Adviser Shares as "Class A" shares ("Redesignation"). This change is expected to be effective on or about June 29, 2020 ("Redesignation Date").
    The total annual operating expense ratio of the Class A shares of each Fund will be no greater than that of the Adviser Shares on a net basis as a result of the same expense limitation agreement currently in place with respect to the Adviser Shares through at least June 30, 2021. Like Adviser Shares, Class A shares will be available for purchase through financial intermediaries and each Fund will pay ongoing distribution and/or service (12b-1) fees at annual rate of up to 0.25% of the average daily net assets of its Class A shares.
    However, Class A shares will be offered and sold at their public offering price, which is the net asset value per share plus any applicable initial sales charge, also referred to as a "front-end sales load." For purchases on or after the Redesignation Date, Class A Shares will be offered and sold with the imposition of a maximum initial sales charge of up to (i) 5.75% of the offering price for equity funds and (ii) 2.00% of the offering price for fixed income funds. The sales charge may be waived or reduced under certain circumstances to be described in a revised prospectus to be furnished to shareholders upon the Redesignation. In addition, a contingent deferred sales charge of up to 0.75% may be imposed on redemptions of Class A shares purchased without an initial sales charge if shares are redeemed within 18 months of purchase.
    The Redesignation will be made without the imposition of any sales loads, fees, or other charges to Adviser Shares held in shareholder accounts on the Redesignation Date. Any future purchases of Class A shares of the Fund will be subject to a front-end sales load unless such purchase qualifies for a sales charge waiver or reduction to be described in the revised prospectus. The Redesignation will not be considered a taxable event for federal income tax purposes.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR YOUR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    Victory Capital means Victory Capital Management Inc., the investment manager of the USAA Mutual Funds. USAA Mutual Funds are distributed by Victory Capital Advisers, Inc., a broker dealer registered with FINRA and an affiliate of Victory Capital. Victory Capital and its affiliates are not affiliated with United Services Automobile Association or its affiliates. USAA and the USAA logos are registered trademarks and the USAA Mutual Funds and USAA Investments logos are trademarks of United Services Automobile Association and are being used by Victory Capital and its affiliates under license.
    Here is the link for the new prospectus:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908695/000168386320007758/f4863d2.htm
  • MOAT vs. DSEEX/DSENX
    For a while now growth has outperformed value or blend. If that continues, which is very possible, then sure, VOOG (1/3 tech) will outperform. If it doesn't, MOAT is more balanced, and CAPE (or DSENX) should maybe benefit when currently undervalued (or less richly valued) sectors make up for lost time?
  • MOAT vs. DSEEX/DSENX
    Most of the MFOers who held the DoubleLine CAPE funds were displeased (shocked?) at their performance during market downturns, first in 2018, then this year. Almost since the inceptions of DSENX and MOAT (Morningstar Wide-Moat ETF),
    I have held both funds and I periodically owned CAPE, the ETN. Up until the past few months, performance was quite similar, with both methodologies regularly besting SPY. This is no longer the case as MOAT has shown itself to be the superior fund. As I may have previously mentioned, I have exited all CAPE strategies while maintaining my MOAT positions. I won't quibble here about whether the CAPE approach is value or blend. MOAT is LCB without argument. My finding is that wide-moat investing works and that the CAPE strategy, dependent as it is on the bond "sauce," does not work as well. FWIIW, I have not found a member of this board who owns MOAT, although I have mentioned it before. Please come out of the woodwork because it's lonely at the head of the train (LOL).
  • 'W-shaped' recovery may be too optimistic, Fed's Powell suggests
    We have read about the V, U, and W shaped recoveries. Now Jerome Powell suggests another possible path moving forward. Names for it like slow-rolling, obstacle course, and washboard come to mind (sisyphus pit is perhaps too extreme). My hunch is that the path that proves to be correct will at least partially dictate the market's path over the next one to two years.
    Calling all current economic forecasts “highly uncertain,” Powell mapped out why he believes the economy may go through a series of peaks and troughs for at least a year or more as the world battles to keep the virus under control.
    “This is such an extraordinary, extraordinary shock, unlike anything certainly that’s happened in my lifetime ... we’re still putting out the fire, we’re still trying to win, and I think we’ll be at that for a while,” he said.

    https://reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-powell-analysi/w-shaped-recovery-may-be-too-optimistic-feds-powell-suggests-idUSKBN22C1MU
  • Shell slashes dividend as earnings sink
    I expect that there will be more dividend payers who will do likewise. First cut in 80 years. "RDS.B Royal Dutch Shell Thursday cut its dividend for the first time since 1945, reducing it by 66% to 16 cents a share after first-quarter profit fell by nearly half. The company warned that the pandemic's impact would be more severe in the second quarter." (Emphasis mine)
    Shell slashes dividend as earnings sink
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    @Mark - I appreciate the clarification.
    As you commented, this is an old issue. While these incidents raise questions of competency (compliance) and of ethics, I believe they're generally small and limited to new funds.
    The main impact I can see is to investors who were suckered in by inflated performance figures (without disclosure). As I tried to explain above, ISTM that performance could be legit if a fund were able to aggregate odd lot purchases into larger round lots - thus arbitraging two markets. Otherwise, not.
    It's an example of why one must be wary of early performance figures of funds. They may be buying a lot of private placements, buying odd lots at discounts, etc. Practices that don't scale.
    What I always use as the poster child for bond fund mispricing and genuinely willful defrauding (including insider trading) is Heartland. The actions there were so egregious that I will never invest in that family.
    https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2003-171.htm
    When projects underlying some bonds held by the funds went into default and other projects were failing, Heartland didn’t accurately re-price the funds to reflect the lower valuations, the SEC said. The net asset value of the high-yield [muni] fund plummeted 69.4% in one day, and the short-duration [muni] fund fell 44%.
    https://www.investmentnews.com/heartland-fined-3-9m-for-mispricing-funds-13500
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    @msf. "A problem with putting too much faith in volatility figures over a generally quiescent period is that one is blinded to latent risks." Hear, hear. And yes, DODIX recovered. Think the Fed helped all IG bonds recover pretty quickly. But right before it stepped-in, I think even DODIX was down 10% in March. Yes too ... going back even further ... WWI, 1918 Flu, GD, WWII, Sputnik, Korea, Cold War (Duck & Cover), Missile Crisis, Vietnam, Watergate, gas crisis, Iran, Berlin Wall, AIDS, LTCM, tech bubble, 9/11, Iraq, housing bubble ... CV-19. You'd think with all that we would never forget that sometimes it really does feel like the world is ending. That certainly is how it felt in March. And when that happens and everybody really is running for the door, all investments look scary. I think at some level, however slight, when you are investing there is a real possibility that all could be lost. I estimate rock steady DODIX had $3B in redemptions in March, or about 5%. But if the Fed had not stepped in, how many folks would have continued to redeem? It holds about 8% junk and 25% in BBB. SEMPX's redemptions were much higher at 25%. Behemoth PIMIX lost $13B or about 10% of its AUM. Yes indeed, the 11 year bull made a lot of folks complacent, me included. Especially with its unprecedented stretches of NO volatility. Anyway, I'm rambling now. Time for another cup of coffee. Thanks again.
  • GW&K GLOBAL ALLOCATION FUND (mbeax)
    i own shares of mbeax fund which was managed by chicago equity partners. it has been renamed GW&K global allocation fund, effective 4/17/20. I was not happy with mbeax and was going to sell it when I found a fund I liked better. I will give the new sub-advisor a chance to see how they do. if anyone else owns shares in mbeax I would like to know what they think about the change.
  • Municipal bonds perspectives- Where do We Go From Here

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4340466-municipal-bond-perspective-where-go-from
    /where do We Go From Here
    Given the financial strength of the sector, we believe airports have the requisite resources to weather a decline in air travel over the next several months.
    If investment markets do not recover from recent declines before fiscal year-end (mostly June 30), schools will see significant investment losses in fiscal year 2020.
    We expect that sales taxes and income taxes will experience immediate shocks as a result of social distancing and demand-side pressures.
    As the COVID-19 pandemic evolved during the first quarter, the municipal bond market experienced one of its most volatile periods in years. Here, the Franklin Municipal Bond Department shares how they plan to navigate the market, which they think is likely to show signs of distress and elevated volatility for some time
    elieve levels of municipal market volatility are likely to remain elevated over the next few months, and potentially longer. However, our seasoned team of analysts and portfolio managers have experienced difficult market periods in the past, and we are using that collective knowledge to navigate through this panic as well./
    many municipals may end up bankrupted by late/summer fall unless market do rebounds and folks are less worried/install more monies into system/buying more. I think we are slowly getting there. The vanguard advisors that we talked to still recommends balance holdings of different products/vehicles and perhaps may lessen risks just in case another crash /W form recovery takes place
    we are still holding to our munis and corp porfolios, have not buy nor added recently.
    We did have one bond near bankruptcy past few weeks but we are still holding on since it did slightly recovered recently [RIG oil platforms]
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse

    SEC alleges willful violation and other funds were cited as well (Pimco etc.)
    Outside of PIMCO, do you know of other bond funds inflating their early performance this way?
    https://www.sec.gov/news/pressrelease/2016-252.html
    The "willful" part wasn't exactly necessary. As the SEC pointed out, negligence would have been sufficient. It even referenced Steadman in this regard. There, the SEC said that "if we were to conclude that the [defendants] meant to defraud investors, we would have to believe that they did it for the sheer joy of it rather than for profit."
    There were multiple problems with what both PIMCO and Semper did. Notably that they inflated performance figures and that they did not disclose this.
    Lots of funds seem to do unusually well right out of the gate due to small size. If they can purchase small (odd) lots at a discount and actually resell them at full value, they can boost returns. PIMCO might have been able to do this for a short time, buying up small lots until it had enough to sell round lots. That would have made its performance figures legitimate but still misleading. That's why the lack of disclosure mattered.
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
    [and later ...]
    Corp bonds rated invested grade were down 13% from the top. Black swan is unknown ... Pimco top ones PCI, PDI lost 30-40%.
    The funds you look at do seem broken. As corporates and MBSs recovered, these funds continued going down. Which is why, as Baseball_Fan wrote, it's important to know what you own, not just what their "stats" are.
    Every once in awhile, a picture really is worth a thousand words. Here's a graph showing YTD curves for MBB (iShares MBS), PTRIX (Pimco MBS fund), VTC (Vanguard Total Corporate ETF), VCFAX, and SEMRX.
    All dipped to varying degrees, but the first three recovered and are positive on the year.
    VCFAX flattened and is down 13%; SEMRX continued to plunge and is down 22%.
    SEMMX is negative over 1, 3, and 5 years. (It has not been around for a decade yet.) Next to that, DODIX looks pretty good. A problem with putting too much faith in volatility figures over a generally quiescent period is that one is blinded to latent risks.
    These "black swan" events come almost like clockwork. 2020, 2009, 2000, 1987, 1974. Pandemic risk is unknown? That sounds like a politician.
    "Over the past quarter century, warnings have been clear and consistent from both US government leaders, scientists, and global health officials: A pandemic was coming—and whenever it arrived, it would be catastrophic to the global economy."
    https://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-pandemic-warnings-trump-ignored/