https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brace-yourself-take-these-10-steps-right-now-to-prepare-for-a-recession-2019-08-21
By Brett Arends
Published: Aug 23, 2019 9:15 a.m. ET
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Tougher times may be coming. Better be ready

IMHO, Vanguard has been taking too much of the heat for the error made by the FTSE Group.
People have been saying for decades that index funds could be run by monkeys. I've argued that there's some intelligence needed: for cash flow management, for sampling (if the fund does not use full replication), for efficient trading, and so on. Nevertheless, the "monkey" perspective is somewhat appropriate in terms of what an index fund is supposed to do. That is, to follow its index, warts and all.
The cited articles says that "ETF portfolio managers are expected to match at least 80% of their holdings to whatever index they're tracking, with wiggle room to allow for pricing execution, liquidity or other concerns." It is mistakenly referring to the 80% rule for fund names, which is merely a minimum requirement.
Contrast the prospectus statements:

Vanguard Mid Cap Growth VMGRX: "Under normal circumstances, the Fund invests at least 80% of its assets in common stocks of mid-size companies."
Vanguard ESG US Stock ESGV: "The Fund attempts to replicate the target index by investing all, or substantially all, of its assets in the stocks that make up the Index, holding each stock in approximately the same proportion as its weighting in the Index."

The last time Vanguard played that fast and lose (with a prospectus that allowed 15% wiggle room), its index funds underpeformed by 2% or more.
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguard_bond_index_fund_tracking_error#Sampling_strategies
I understand that people buying an ESG fund expect it to follow ESG standards. But people buying an index fund should understand that the fund is required to follow the index.

FYI: (This is a follow-up article.)
Managers overseeing trillions in exchange-traded funds have been quietly meeting around Wall Street this week to check the quality controls on their funds, rattled after Vanguard Group Inc. mistakenly added shares of 11 companies, including a gun manufacturer and a private prison operator, to its $578 million socially responsible ETF.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=Z6JfXc74CILetQXa_o7QAg&q=Vanguard+social-investing+error+prompts+funds+to+check+controls&oq=Vanguard+social-investing+error+prompts+funds+to+check+controls&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3950.3950..5237...0.0..0.79.79.1......0....2j1..gws-wiz.lbfA-EQChAI&ved=0ahUKEwiOyMmeyJjkAhUCb60KHVq_AyoQ4dUDCAc&uact=5

FYI: Emerging markets stocks will bury U.S. equities over the next seven years, according to GMO.
The asset manager has predicted that shares of large U.S. companies will lose 3.7 percent annually over that period, while emerging equities will deliver a 5.2 percent real return on an annual basis. With international equities expected to post relatively small gains, the firm predicted that emerging value stocks will have the strongest annual returns at 9.8 percent.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1gtwj5y79j84k/GMO-Says-Emerging-Markets-Stocks-Will-Trounce-U-S-Equities

FYI: David Koch, the billionaire libertarian who gave more than $1 billion to charitable causes but was better known for using his money to reshape U.S. politics, has died.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billionaire-david-koch-known-for-his-support-of-conservative-causes-dies-at-79-2019-08-23/print

@MFO Members: Same article via Financial Advisor.Com with Bloomberg as its source.
Regards,
TEd
So You Can Read John's Link" InvestmentNews,Com
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=WoxfXaC4FurI_Qbh8KzABA&q=Stock+volatility+spurs+worst+run+of+ETF+withdrawals+in+six+months&oq=Stock+volatility+spurs+worst+run+of+ETF+withdrawals+in+six+months&gs_l=psy-ab.3..35i39.4235.4235..6794...0.0..0.76.76.1......0....2j1..gws-wiz.YEttKXTmkB0&ved=0ahUKEwigzfeas5jkAhVqZN8KHWE4C0gQ4dUDCAc&uact=5
Financial Advisor.Com:
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/52164/stock-whiplash-spurs-worst-run-of-etf-withdrawals-in-six-months#latest

https://www.investmentnews.com/article/20190819/FREE/190819927/stock-volatility-spurs-worst-run-of-etf-withdrawals-in-six-months
Stock volatility spurs worst run of ETF withdrawals in six months
Almost $18 billion exited U.S.-listed equity ETFs over the past three weeks

FYI: Major US index ETFs have seen a major bounce off of oversold levels over the last week. You can see the big jump in the snapshot from our Trend Analyzer tool below. Even with gains of 2-3% across the board over the last week, however, all of the ETFs shown remain below their 50-day moving averages. Bulls still have work to do to put the onus back on the bears.
As stocks sit higher versus last week, defensives are once again overbought with Utilities (XLU) at extreme levels and Real Estate (XLRE) not far behind. Along with Technology (XLK), these ETFs are the only ones that are currently above the 50-DMA. Meanwhile, more cyclical sectors like Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Materials (XLB) all remain oversold. Granted, as with the small and mid-caps above, these three ETFs in addition to Industrials (XLI) and Health Care (XLV) were sitting at extreme oversold levels this time last week.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/trend-analyzer-8-22-19-overbought-oversold-see-saw

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751173/000119312519226658/d93664d497.htm
1 d93664d497.htm MANNING & NAPIER FUND, INC.
MANNING & NAPIER FUND, INC.
(the “Fund”)
Equity Income Series – Class S, I, W and Z
Income Series – Class S, I and Z
International Series – Class S, I, W and Z
(the “Series”)
Supplement dated August 22, 2019 to:
·the Summary Prospectuses dated March 1, 2019 for the Series (“Summary Prospectuses”);
·the Prospectuses dated March 1, 2019 for the Series (“Prospectuses”); and
·the Statement of Additional Information dated March 1, 2019, as supplemented June 4, 2019, for the Series (“SAI”)
This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectuses, Prospectuses, and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Summary Prospectuses, Prospectuses, and SAI.
The Board of Directors of the Fund has voted to terminate the offering of shares of the Equity Income Series, the Income Series and the International Series and instructed the officers of the Fund to take all steps necessary to completely liquidate each Series. Accordingly, effective immediately, each Series will be closed to new investors. Effective November 6, 2019, each Series will stop selling its shares to existing shareholders and will no longer accept automatic investments from existing shareholders.
Each Series will redeem all of its outstanding shares on or about November 20, 2019 and distribute the proceeds to its shareholders (subject to maintenance of appropriate reserves for liquidation and other expenses).
As is the case with other redemptions, each shareholder’s redemption, including a mandatory redemption, will constitute a taxable disposition of shares for those shareholders who do not hold their shares through tax-advantaged plans. Shareholders should contact their tax advisors to discuss the potential income tax consequences of the liquidations.
As shareholders redeem shares of each Series between the date of this supplement and the date of the final redemptions, and as each Series increases its cash position to facilitate redemptions, a Series may not be able to continue to invest its assets in accordance with its stated investment policies. Accordingly, a Series may not be able to achieve its investment objectives during the period between the date of this supplement and the date of the final redemptions.
The Income Series, which generally pays dividends quarterly, will suspend its dividend scheduled for September in anticipation of its liquidating distribution.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
Supp EI_INC_INTL Aug 2019

another interesting datapoint about lower SWR probabilities in a time of high p/e; from a place I do not know:
https://www.crestmontresearch.com/blog/excerpt/5/
(appears to conform with a kitces piece bee posted a year ago
https://finpage.blog/2018/02/28/cape-and-safe-withdrawal-rates/ )

FYI: Every summer for the past several decades I have organized a series of Friday lunches in eastern Long Island for serious investors. More than 100 people attend the four sessions, with 25–30 at each one. The participants include hedge fund, private equity and real estate billionaires, venture capitalists, an academic and some corporate leaders. I moderate a discussion of the key issues facing the financial markets for the better part of two hours. This year, several significant events occurred between the first two and the second two sessions. First, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point; second President Trump announced a 10% tariff increase on $300 billion of Chinese goods; third, China allowed its currency, the renminbi, to decline to more than seven to the dollar; and fourth, the Hong Kong disturbance took place.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/08/22/plenty_to_worry_about_but_not_much_for_investors_to_do_103868.html

It is true that while Merrill Lynch invented cash management accounts (CMAs) 42 years ago, Vanguard takes the opposite approach and focuses strictly on brokerage services. It was just three weeks ago that it discontinued its Vanguard Advantage CMA service. A service that it only offered to Voyager Select ($500K+) customers for $30/year and to Flagship ($1M+) customers for free.
But I wouldn't get too excited about Merrill Edge. This is a brokerage that sometimes sweeps free cash into a 0.05% APR bank account (Vanguard pays 2.11% on its VMFXX settlement fund), and sometimes just leaves the cash siting in the brokerage earning 0.00%. Even when it pays that paltry interest on the sweep money, it deposits that interest back into the 0% brokerage account where it may sit earning nothing. (What other bank refuses to credit interest on an account directly to the account that earned the interest?)

fascinating discussion. It's been a good 10 years in the market so I have reduced equity holdings to about 50%. More of a tactical move though. Probably more driven by my fears of what the great idiot is going to do. I have alot in money markets and short term treasuries right now. Waiting for some kind of move and will probably open an initial position in IOFIX. @bee what are you doing with your "income milk."

It is closed unless you purchase directly from Vanguard. (M* lists it as limited, not closed.)
From the summary prospectus:

Important Note Regarding Vanguard Wellington Fund
Vanguard Wellington Fund will be closed to all prospective financial advisory, institutional, and intermediary clients (other than clients who invest through a Vanguard brokerage account).

Vanguard fund page: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VWELX

If I want to move money into or out of my Vanguard account, I have to initiate the transfer at Vanguard. I cannot have another institution initiate the transfer.
My preference is to initiate all transfers (in and out) and all bill pays at a central institution. That makes it easier for me to track. It also means that regardless of where I want to move money to or from, I know I can do it from a single place.
Here's a Bogleheads thread on how Vanguard restricts ACH transfers from an external account:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=125763
And how to set up ACH transfers that you initiate from the Vanguard side:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/whatweoffer/accountservices/banking

@Old_Joe +1
Derf

@Crash, if you want to play you can get in at any amount of whole shares. At $1.15 per share on that stock you can spend $11.50 for 10 shares (without trading costs). Have some fun!

@Ted, I did read that about the "impossible Burger" they are trialling at Burger King. Different brand.
I can tell you, my ancestry is Polish and my mother and grandmother made the best Golumpki "ever". My daughter in law (1/2 Polish from Pittsburg) used her family recipe and made them using "Beyond Meat" instead of ground beef and honestly I couldn't tell the difference. My only experience with the product but thought it was pretty good.
But it's not what you and I think. We are likely to order that ground beef burger given the choice. It's what the many vegetarians in this world think that's going to matter.

@wxman123 ok. I'm not seeing emails with every log-in. I'm glad to hear they are consistent and secure. Also see the reply from @msf above, regarding costs, and how they probably work out the "free" trades. ...Now, teach me something: I could easily buy with a "market order." But Firstrade lets us use LIMIT orders, too. Then I see that a "stop" (stop-loss?) is required when filling in your desired stock purchase. I understand that the"limit price" is the specified share price at which you are willing to buy.... What's the purpose of needing a "STOP" figure, too? Others can chime in, too. Thank you.

Crash, this is because you did not select a limit order in the "order type" field. If you did then the "stop" option is grayed out. As to the email notification with each log in, I do get them. I assume this is a setting I chose but you did not. I'd call FT and ask if you want that feature, they usually answer quickly and the folks are fairly knowledgeable.

@Bee, I have a large cash pile from account consolidations in recent years that for the most part has yet to be deployed into anything other than rolling-over t-bills. I've been using that dry powder to buy new / add to existing positions in recent weeks to my otherwise rather healthy longterm portfolios and am becoming more aggressive b/c I hate to have it just sitting there.
(I don't consider that cash as part of my investment 'holdings' per se, which is why I say that 90% of what I'm invested in are stocks and stock funds -- I don't own much FI or alts or commodities, etc.)

@rforno, if you are presently 90 % invested in equities and your equities tank, how will you by equities hand over fist? One needs cash or non-equity correlated assets to exchange into equities when they fall in price.
Over the last couple of years I have milk my equity cows when they have out performed. That milk represents growth above the long term average for that investment ( for example I use yearly growth above 10% as my trigger for Large Cap).
This "milk" is stored for future retirement income to pay for things) or, as you mentioned, to potentially buy things on sale.
So far I have enough stored "income milk" for 3 - 5 years. This should keep me from selling my equities when they temporarily tank.
My next goal is to store some dry powder from out sized gains if equities continue to out perform.