@BenWP CXO Advisory gives Birinyi a 52% average well above the norm.
Regards,
Ted
Laszlo Birinyi Bemusings:
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/2738/individual-gurus/laszlo-birinyi/#more-2738

Nice fund. It looks like it's tightening the closure by tweaking language in some of the exceptions to closure and by eliminating two previous exceptions: for 529 plans and for "approved brokerage platforms where the fund is on recommended list. (Why yes, this has been an NTF/NL fund on Schwab's One Source list. Why do you ask?)
David

Barrons discussed this in today's edition. You should be fine with your bank loan fund. They are yielding 5%. But they have been on a relentless roll since February with but a couple down days ala SAMBX (my favorite) and EVFAX. Even better have been LSFYX, JFIIX and HFRZX which has some exposure to equities. Most are already up 5% YTD. Not sure about why you want short duration. That was last year's trade and the short duration funds in categories such as high yield have been the worst performers in 2016 by a wide margin. I am around 50% in bank loan, 35% in junk munis and 15% in corp junk. If the junk munis falter in even the slightest will be rolling them into more bank loan. Junk munis are way overbought and their recent outperformance has been almost entirely due to tobacco bonds. See link below.
http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2016/05/19/tobacco-bond-risks-grow-fitch-loses-confidence-pulls-ratings/?mod=BOLBlog

With the upcoming anticipated rate increase(s) I have kept the duration towards the short end within my income sleeve along with maintaining a well diversified income selecton of mutual funds ranging from a high yield fund with a short duration, a bank loan fund, a couple limited term investment grade bond funds along with several strategic income funds. In addition, I am thinking of adding a mortgage backed securities fund (BMPAX) with a duration of 2.7 years along with a limited term duration muni income fund (LTEBX)) with a duration of 3.0 years. The current duration found in my fixed income sleeve is about 3.0 years. With this, I am looking to stay with good funds that have a short duration and maturity.
I do not have the investment depth and knowledge in the fixed income area of my portfolio that I have on the equity side. With this, I am wondering what other seasoned or accredited investors might be doing to better manage the income side of their portfolio. I can raise my allocation on the fixed income side by a couple of percent and still be towards it's low allocation range of about 25%.
According to a recent Xray analysis study my planned additions would result in an new overall asset allocaton of about 25% cash, 25% bonds, 45% equity and 5% other for the portfolio. This will leave me with enough cash to raise the equity allocation when I feel warranted while still holding an ample cash position to reestablish a CD ladder when interest rates reach a more attractive level.
I just do not want to walk into a rate increase storm and get hammered when I can still hold the cash now targeted to go towards adding these two new fixed income positions.
Any thoughts from others on fixed income funds that are anticipated to fair well during a rising interest rate environment would be appreciated?
Thanks again for your comments and suggestions.
Old_Skeet

FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
For four decades, Laszlo Birinyi has scoured the stock market for clues about where it is headed, focusing especially on sentiment indicators that suggest how investors feel about the Standard & Poor’s 500 index and individual equities. That has made his stock market research a must-read for many big investors, who also appreciate the dollops of market history he doles out with his investment forecasts.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=The+Stock+Market+Will+Make+New+Highs+This+Year++Barron's

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1047712/000119312516597275/d196409d497.htm
497 1 d196409d497.htm UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund
(All Shares Classes)
Supplement dated May 20, 2016
to the Prospectuses dated December 29, 2015, as supplemented
Effective as of the close of business on June 17, 2016, the limited offering provisions for the Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund will be revised. As of the Revised Closing Date, the current limited offering provisions in the section titled “How to Do Business with the Funds — Purchasing Fund Shares — What does it mean that the Behavioral Value Fund is publicly offered on a limited basis?” will be removed and replaced with the following disclosure:
Effective as of the close of business on June 17, 2016, (the “Revised Closing Date”) the Behavioral Value Fund will be offered on a limited basis and investors are not eligible to purchase shares of the Behavioral Value Fund, except as described below. In addition, both before and after the Revised Closing Date, the Behavioral Value Fund may from time to time, in its sole discretion based on the Behavioral Value Fund’s net asset levels and other factors, limit new purchases into the Behavioral Value Fund or otherwise modify the closure policy at any time on a case-by-case basis.
The following groups will be permitted to continue to purchase Behavioral Value Fund shares. Except as otherwise described below, shareholders of record are permitted to continue to purchase shares; if the shareholder of record is an omnibus account, beneficial owners in that account as of the applicable closing date are permitted to continue to purchase:
• Shareholders of the Behavioral Value Fund as of December 31, 2015 are able to continue to purchase additional shares in their existing Behavioral Value Fund accounts either through J.P. Morgan Funds Services or a Financial Intermediary and may continue to reinvest dividends or capital gains distributions from shares owned in the Behavioral Value Fund;
•Shareholders of the Behavioral Value Fund as of December 31, 2015 are able to add to their existing Behavioral Value Fund accounts through exchanges from other J.P. Morgan Funds;
• Approved fully discretionary fee-based advisory programs, where investment discretion (fund and investment allocations) solely reside with the firm’s home office and where the firm’s home office has full authority to make investment changes without approval from the shareholder, may continue to utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for new and existing program accounts. These programs must be accepted for continued investment by the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor by the Revised Closing Date. Additionally, after the Revised Closing Date, new fully discretionary fee-based advisory programs may utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for program accounts only with the approval by the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor;
•Other fee-based advisory programs (including Rep as Advisor and Portfolio Manager programs) may continue to utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for existing program accounts, but will not be able to open new program accounts after the Revised Closing Date;
• Group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b) and 457 plans and health savings account programs (and their successor plans), utilizing the Behavioral Value Fund on or before the Revised Closing Date can continue to invest in the Behavioral Value Fund. Additionally, after the Revised Closing Date, new group employer benefit plans may utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for their accounts only with the approval of the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor; and
•Current and future J.P. Morgan Funds which are permitted to invest in other J.P. Morgan Funds may purchase shares of the Behavioral Value Fund;
If all shares of the Fund in an existing shareholder’s account are voluntarily redeemed or involuntarily redeemed (due to instances when a shareholder does not meet aggregate account balance minimums or when participants in Systematic Investment Plans do not meet minimum investment requirements), then the shareholder’s account will be closed. Such former Fund shareholders will not be able to buy additional Fund shares or reopen their accounts in the Fund unless a former shareholder makes his or her repurchase within 90 days of the redemption. Repurchases during this 90 day period will not be subject to any applicable sales charges if such sales charges are normally waived for repurchases within 90 days of the redemption as described in the “Waiver of the Class A Sales Charge” or “Waiver Applicable Only to Class C Shares” sections below. These repurchase restrictions, however, do not apply to participants in groups listed above as eligible to continue to purchase even if the plan, program or fund would liquidate its entire position. If shares are purchased through a Financial Intermediary, contact your investment representative for their requirements and procedures.
If the Behavioral Value Fund receives a purchase order directly from an investor who is not eligible to purchase shares of the Fund, J.P. Morgan Funds Services will attempt to contact the investor to determine whether he or she would like to purchase shares of another J.P. Morgan Fund or would prefer that the investment be refunded. If J.P. Morgan Funds Services cannot contact the investor within 30 days, the entire investment will be refunded.
The Behavioral Value Fund reserves the right to change these policies at any time.
INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT
WITH THE PROSPECTUSES FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

Hi Guys,
This Hulbert article seems to add further evidence for the frequent appearance of the 80/20 rule that I discussed in a recent MFO exchange. Here is the internal Link to that discussion:
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05/the-sp-500-is-the-worlds-largest-momentum-strategy/
It's frightful how so many diverse happenings and opinion surveys fall victim (not sure that's the correct word) to the .80/20 or is it the 20/80 Principle?
Best Wishes.

FYI: In many ways the stock market makes no sense. You would assume that half of all stocks would outperform a market index while the other half would underperform. Then all you would have to do is pick from the top half and avoid the bottom half, make massive amounts of money and go buy an island somewhere.
Regards,
Ted
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05/the-sp-500-is-the-worlds-largest-momentum-strategy/

, my downside feel is like 55% at the moment.

A decline of 55%?!!

Ha, no! I sure hope not. My thought when writing this was that there was only a slightly better chance of a major decline as compared with the current range-bound market or rally to the upside. Taking account of today's action, I'd reduce the odds to 50% or less. Today was the day I would have expected the gutting, but the turn was encouraging. Hit some stops during the worst of it, moving some of my best wins to the side (10% or so of PDT UTG VNQ). My gut right now is we drive to new highs against the odds.

So, you're saying ... stocks could go up or they could go down.

, my downside feel is like 55% at the moment.

A decline of 55%?!!

Ha, no! I sure hope not. My thought when writing this was that there was only a slightly better chance of a major decline as compared with the current range-bound market or rally to the upside. Taking account of today's action, I'd reduce the odds to 50% or less. Today was the day I would have expected the gutting, but the turn was encouraging. Hit some stops during the worst of it, moving some of my best wins to the side (10% or so of PDT UTG VNQ). My gut right now is we drive to new highs against the odds.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793769/000119312516594564/d359875d497.htm
497 1 d359875d497.htm HARBOR FUNDS
111 South Wacker Drive, 34th Floor
Chicago, IL 60606-4302
harborfunds.com
Supplement to Statement of Additional Information dated March 1, 2016
Harbor Unconstrained Bond Fund
Harbor Funds’ Board of Trustees has determined to liquidate and dissolve the Harbor Unconstrained Bond Fund. The liquidation of the Fund is expected to occur on July 29, 2016. The liquidation proceeds will be distributed to any remaining shareholders of the Fund on the liquidation date.
Shareholders may exchange shares of the Fund for another Harbor fund, or redeem shares out of the Fund, in accordance with Harbor’s exchange and redemption policies as set forth in the Fund’s prospectus, until the date of the Fund’s liquidation.
In order to ready the Fund for liquidation, the Fund’s portfolio of investments will be transitioned prior to the planned liquidation date to one that consists of all or substantially all cash, cash equivalents and debt securities with remaining maturities of less than one year. As a result, shareholders should no longer expect that the Fund will seek to achieve its investment objective of seeking total return.
Because the Fund will be liquidating, the Fund is now closed to new investors. The Fund will no longer accept additional investments from existing shareholders beginning on July 22, 2016.
May 18, 2016
Harbor Bond Fund
Effective June 1, 2016, Harbor Bond Fund shall have additional flexibility to invest in securities rated below investment grade. The percentage of the Fund’s total assets that may be invested in securities rated below investment grade is increasing from 15% of total assets to 20% of total assets. In addition, the minimum credit quality rating applicable to securities rated below investment grade is being removed.
Accordingly, effective June 1, 2016, the first paragraph on page 5 within the “Below Investment-Grade Fixed Income Securities” section under Investment Policies is hereby replaced in its entirety with the following:
Harbor Convertible Securities Fund and Harbor High-Yield Bond Fund invest primarily in below investment-grade securities. Harbor Global Growth Fund, Harbor Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund, Harbor Unconstrained Bond Fund, Harbor Bond Fund and Harbor Real Return Fund may invest up to 5%, 10%, 40%, 20% and 10%, respectively, of its assets in below investment-grade securities, commonly referred to as “high-yield” or “junk” bonds. For all securities other than mortgage-related securities, the investments of Harbor Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund and Harbor Real Return Fund in below investment-grade securities are limited to those rated B or higher by S&P, Moody’s or Fitch Ratings, or, if unrated, determined to be of comparable quality. For mortgage-related securities, these Funds may invest in securities of any credit quality, including those rated below B.
May 17, 2016
Investors Should Retain This Supplement For Future Reference

Dex, you are comparing the charts of two open end funds where dividends accumulate daily and paid out end of month vs an ETF where dividends are handled differently and show as a decline on the charts end of month.

Dex?, OK I'll play. Dan,
I compared HYD with HYG. HYG is beating HYD YTD. But if you look at other time periods, 1, 2, 5 - HYD wins. HYG is slightly ahead in 10 years by 1.75 pct pts. Max HYG is better by less than 9 pct pts.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HYD+Interactive#{"range":"ytd","allowChartStacking":true}

Hi @shipwreckedandalone
Thank you for your thoughts regarding this post. As to the equity mix. With the 35% inside of VWINX and another 25% between the healthcare fund and the individual stock of DPLO, we arrive at about 60% equity exposure, although 25% of total equity exposure is via some form of the health sector.
NOTE: fed talk today indicates a possible rate increase in June, investment grade bonds of all flavors down about .8%. VWINX will not be a happy fund today.
Regards,
Catch

Thanks for sharing your portfolio and thoughts supporting it. VWINX is a great fun. My personal preference would be to go with VBINX or similar w 60% stocks. Why? If interest rates rise the tradeoff between losses in a 60% bond portfolio vs 40% bond portfolio may outweigh the added yield at present that VWINX gives (VWINX 2.62 SEC yield vs VBINX 1.85%). VWINX has longer duration and maturity than VBINX according to Vanguard website. I am a fan of balance funds but wonder how they will fare in a rapid interest rate rising environment particularly among certain funds with mandates on a minimum bond allocation. Even VBINX would struggle in that environment. The balanced fund 15 year returns reflects a favorable bond environment. My 2c worth. good luck.

Good Day to You,
When I was seventeen, it was a very good year.....or so the lyric goes.
Well, 17 was a long time ago for this one. Now to begin to leave one of my active lovers.
If one is of the mind, passion and spirit for investing; the rewards, satisfaction and a form of love may leave a smile upon the face. While 50 ways (reasons) are not needed to leave an investing lover, one will likely determine a few key personal points.
Needless to say, the group here are not one's normal invest monies in a 401k, 403b, 457 or some form of IRA just to build a retirement account. We here tend to "fiddle" with whatever is available to our accounts.
Understanding/knowing the difference between being a passive or active investor is of value; as long as one also understands that he/she is likely active in managing choices which fall into a passive investment vehicle.
The exceptions that come to mind are when one uses an advisor, be it human or robo. But, one has still made an active choice about this, too.
So........the plan for this house for a total portfolio:
---75% VWINX , 65% IG bonds, 35% U.S. stocks, active managed
---15% FSPHX , healthcare, active managed; also included, DPLO (Diplomat Pharma stock)
---10% FRIFX , a different real estate active managed fund with a history of 50/50 stocks/bonds
We have a percentage of all of these now, but will sell other holdings to accommodate the above numbers.
For those interested, the below links present more information (click on the other tabs at the top, aside from these composition links:
--- VWINX , composition
This fund has superior returns for many years. Yes, it is subject to the markets not unlike any other fund.
--- FSPHX , composition
We still remain tilted towards the health sector and the many sectors within health related. Although this sector has been getting the whack during the past 6 or so months; our holdings average total return for the past several years remain most decent.
--- FRIFX , composition
You won't find an easy method for ranking in a category list for real estate, as this fund doesn't fit the normal holdings positions for this category, being about 50% bonds. As normal, we look for total return over a time frame; versus which fund is having the most fun, say, within a 1 or 2 year period.
--- DPLO , A specialty pharmacy. This company IPO'd in October of 2014. We purchased near the IPO price, having been very familiar with the quality of the organization during its 25 years of being private. We continue to hold this stock.
https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/goto/evaluate/snapshot.jhtml?symbols=DPLO&type=o-NavBar
As we investors are always subject (or should be subject to change) to change, the following holdings will be liquidated; market conditions allowing (no black swans, etc. allowed), from some accounts outside of Fidelity.
---BRUIX , DPRRX , BAGIX , DGCIX , OPBYX , VIIIX , GPROX , PRHSX , HEDJ , FHLC , ITOT
NOTE: all monies are tax sheltered accounts without current tax implications
We'll arrive at a conservative/moderate balanced account holding. As with all individual investors, such mixes are subject to "the eyes of the beholder" function as to how the balance suits their needs and views. The investment mix is mostly biased towards U.S. markets and companies, although at this time; about 20% of the holdings relate to other than U.S. One would also expect these holdings to generate greater than 20% of earnings/yields from sources outside of the U.S. going forward and providing some international exposure by this method.
Lastly, a large core holding in VWINX may be reasonably argued to possibly cause harm to an overall portfolio going forward due to its large percentage holdings in IG bonds. The main argument being that IG bonds have had one heck of a run for much too long. One may suppose that the "odds" factor such an argument. I will note again the phrase "that this time is different" since the market melt of 2008. Of course it is, eh? We live in a most dynamic investing world. At the very least, central banks and related polices operate upon the egos of the members. Who in these groups would want to look bad in the eyes of financial history? I suspect the central banks will continue to surprise many making decisions based upon every available form of data mining to obtain desired outcomes. Our house is still "betting" upon the investment grade bonds. This is no less as scary as the equity markets discovering flaws in the system, not yet known. With VWINX as the example, an investor will reap 35% of the up or down of the given equity holdings and 65% of the up or down of the investment grade bond holdings for a "total" result.
Remain or become fully flexible and adaptable, not just to your perception of the investing marketplace; but more importantly, to and for yourself and those important in your life.
This "personal overview" is likely incomplete; but will suffice for the time being.
Comments welcomed.
Regards,
Catch

FYI: Franklin Templeton Investments unveiled how much money it will charge investors to own its forthcoming “smart beta” exchange-traded funds in documents filed with regulators late on Tuesday.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2016/05/17/franklin-templeton-unveils-fees-for-smart-beta-etfs/tab/print/

Hi Guys,
“But a good portfolio can prosper for decades with minimal intervention. A basket of stocks is not a board game with turns and rounds. It's something that should be mostly hands-off. After a proper allocation is set up, one of the biggest strengths of individual investors is what they don't do. They don't trade. They don't fiddle. They don't require daily monitoring.”
This quote is surprising because of its author. It came from The Motley Fool’s cofounder Dave Gardner as reported by the reliable financial writer Morgan Housel.
Housel summarized Gardner’s unexpected conclusion with “But his point is that the game of investing is often won by the investor whose strategy is to "play" as little as possible….”.
Here is the Link to the article:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/05/13/two-short-stories-to-put-successful-investing-into.aspx
I didn’t expect Gardner’s statement; I see him as a stock-picker. This is yet another instance of how hard it is to characterize anyone with a simple summary. We’re complex by any standard.
I practice what Dave Gardner preaches. It has served me well. It’s easy for me since it’s within my emotional and intellectual wheelhouse of action minimization style. That investment philosophy is not suitable for everyone. That’s good since the frequent traders help to keep the markets fluid and nearly efficient.
Best Regards.

FYI: These funds won't keep you up at night if you're squeamish about exposing the bulk of your assets to the market.
Regards,
Ted
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=753979

, my downside feel is like 55% at the moment.

A decline of 55%?!!

I think that's probably the right call, but down 5%, 10%, 30%? No one knows. So, how does one know when to get back in? I'm all for taking profits here and there, but unless you're prepared to be out for good there is a great risk you'll buy the shares you sell now at a higher price later. For a small amount, that's the price of insurance. If you're talking going all cash, good luck with that. Also would not be shocked to see a rally from here, my downside feel is like 55% at the moment. Could go either way.