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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Have you placed any wild-ass limit orders?
    From Mark, elsewhere: "I had a wild-ass limit order [on CELG] placed at $87 on the off chance a day like Monday presented itself. It actually went down to $86. Very, very surprised that it filled."
    Good going, Mark! And that being the case, I wonder if anyone here, including Mark, has any similar orders in place right now. How about it?
    Yesterday, at Fidelity, I investigated the idea of placing a few conditional buy orders (instead of limit orders) with a flash crash in mind, based on % decline. The only semi-workable condition I could come up with is: execute order if during any single day, the stock/etf/etc declines by a buyer-set %. I saw that PJP, a pharmaceutical etf, had a single-day flash crash last week of around 45%. Not that I really expect lightning to strike twice, but I put in an order to buy a few shares if the stock drops 35% on any given day. Did it more as an experiment as anything else, just to see.
  • w
    @little5bee I hold a substantial stake in the fund. I run a pretty focused strategy with less than a handful of funds and it is in that mix. I think through the market volatility it will be a home run.
    @andyj when I spoke to the team at catalyst about it, they call it a hybrid market neutral fund.
  • Bridgeway Large Cap Growth Fund to reorganize into American Beacon Bridgeway Large Cap Growth Fund
    We've seen this before: Bridgeway Large Cap Value fund reorganized into American Beacon Bridgeway Large Cap Value Fund (MFO thread).
    Apparently my speculation in that thread - that the first fund move was a one-off - was wrong. Still, it's just the large cap Bridgeway funds moving to American Beacon, and as I wrote there, one can see a certain logic in these moves (marketing large cap funds more widely).
    But how does this fit in with American Beacon recent shutdown of a bevy of smaller funds? American Beacon Funds to liquidate several funds (MFO thread)? Hard to figure out AB's game plan.
  • w
    HFXIX limits itself to S&P 500 index futures, so it's kind of a different animal from the mostly wider-ranging MF category where M* has it pigeonholed. Just from a quick glance, I'd probably compare it more with long-short or market neutral equity funds. The AQR funds of that persuasion are also pretty good.
    Edit: I didn't realize Catalyst has such a big stable ... eight hedged funds plus a bunch of others.
  • Daily Shot: (T Rowe Price) Latin America Fund - "Lying With Charts" + Bonus: Baron Small Cap Fund
    My other TRPrice funds do not/did not use a logarithmic scale - if that's what TRPrice used for their Latin America fund. [*]
    They used increments that were uniform and regular. Somebody - at least internally - should receive a spanking here, IMHO.
    [*] For example - TRP New Era's vertical axis has [10K, 20K, 30K, 40K, 50K, 60K] values on its vertical axis.
  • How American Century Investments Funds Science
    Ten years ago (late 2005) the new manager for Giftrust (who had been appointed early 2004) raised Giftrust's performance (12 month period) to 8th best out of 240 growth funds (as ranked by Bloomberg).
    From the time Giftrust started to the time it removed its restrictions on new money (2011), there were 119 rolling 18 year periods (the longer of the lock up periods for the fund). Of these, 70 had double digit annualized returns. For the final five years before "opening up" (2006-2011), the fund ranked in the top 2% of large growth funds (M*).
    WSJ, Nov. 7, 2011 Goodbye to Giftrust, a Rare Rund That Locked In Its Holders
    So American Century may have done people a favor ten years ago when didn't let them out. The idea of a lockup (to manage cash flows as with hedge funds) is to keep cash flows stable. You don't need a lockup when a fund is doing well; you need it through lean times.
    The WSJ columnist opined in that 2011 column: "The strategy mostly has paid off for investors." In 2012 he said unambiguously that "Ultimately, [the lockup] strategy paid off; the fund suffered some rough short-term patches, but was consistently above average when viewed through a long-term lens."
    Yet when the fund had hit one of those patches in 2004 he called the fund a stupid investment of the week for the second time, noting that "it takes a rare investment to earn the distinction twice".
    That was Chuck Jaffe, who often has some interesting thoughts, but just as often blows with the wind. Which is the point. The wind happened to be blowing cold ten years ago.
    For the record, I think the idea was oversold, but that was started in 1983. The lockups were agreed to by the investors years before 2005; ten years ago they did not suddenly become "pacts with the devil".
    I have my own gripes with AC concerning their herky jerky migation to being a load family. 1996, 2001, and other changes I can't find now. But that doesn't deter me from looking at their funds so long as I can get no load, inexpensive shares.
  • w
    @little5bee There are very few funds in this space that are both very transparent and also have great results. What other funds do you like in this space?
  • Bridgeway Large Cap Growth Fund to reorganize into American Beacon Bridgeway Large Cap Growth Fund
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916006/000119312515307686/d50199d497.htm
    497 1 d50199d497.htm BRIDGEWAY FUNDS INC.
    Bridgeway Funds, Inc.
    Large-Cap Growth Fund (BRLGX)
    Supplement dated August 31, 2015 to the Prospectus dated October 31, 2014
    and to the Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    dated October 31, 2014, as supplemented May 29, 2015
    At a meeting of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Bridgeway Funds, Inc. (the “Company”) held on August 27, 2015, the Board approved the reorganization (the “Reorganization”) of the Large-Cap Growth Fund (the “Bridgeway Fund”) into the American Beacon Bridgeway Large Cap Growth Fund (the “New Fund”), a newly created series of American Beacon Funds (the “Trust”). The Board determined that the Reorganization is in the best interests of the Bridgeway Fund and its shareholders. The Board also approved a form of Agreement and Plan of Reorganization and Termination (the “Plan”) between the Company, on behalf of the Bridgeway Fund, and the Trust, on behalf of the New Fund, under which the Reorganization will take effect. The Plan provides for the Bridgeway Fund to transfer of all of its assets to the New Fund in exchange for Institutional Class shares of the New Fund, which would be distributed pro rata by the Bridgeway Fund to the holders of its shares in complete liquidation of the Bridgeway Fund, and the assumption by the New Fund of all the liabilities of the Bridgeway Fund. The Plan is subject to shareholder approval as described below.
    The effect of the Reorganization is that the Bridgeway Fund’s shareholders will become shareholders of the New Fund. Bridgeway Fund shareholders will receive shares of the New Fund equal in number and value to their shares of the Bridgeway Fund on the closing date of the Reorganization. The Reorganization is expected to be tax-free to the Bridgeway Fund and its shareholders.
    The New Fund is designed to be substantially identical from an investment perspective to the Bridgeway Fund. American Beacon Advisors, Inc. will serve as the New Fund’s investment manager and Bridgeway Capital Management, Inc. (“Bridgeway”), the Bridgeway Fund’s investment adviser, will serve as the New Fund’s investment sub-adviser. After the Reorganization, the New Fund will be managed by the same investment management team that is currently responsible for the day-to-day portfolio management of the Bridgeway Fund.
    The Plan requires the approval of the shareholders of the Bridgeway Fund. A special shareholder meeting is being called for that purpose and shareholders of the Bridgeway Fund will receive proxy solicitation materials providing them with information about the New Fund (including, among other things, its investment objective, strategies, policies, risks, fees and expenses, and management), the terms of the Plan, and the factors the Board considered in deciding to approve the Plan. If Bridgeway Fund’s shareholders approve the Plan, the Reorganization is expected to take effect in the fourth quarter of 2015. Shareholders should be on the lookout for the proxy solicitation materials, which will arrive by mail. Your vote is very important; please review the materials when they arrive and submit your vote by the deadline.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
  • Daily Shot: (T Rowe Price) Latin America Fund - "Lying With Charts" + Bonus: Baron Small Cap Fund
    Using M* chart for same time period. This seems to squeeze the data vertically (on the x axis)...neither seem accurate. In fairness to the fund, a $10k investment in 4/05 was worth $21kish in 4/15.
    image
    Since May of 2015 through the last down draft (8/15), the fund experienced a 25% loss similar to EEM (Emerging Market Index).
    image
    Brazil and Mexico seem to occupy many of the top 25 holdings of this fund and the fund doesn't spread itself around too much with only 46 holdings and with the top 25 holdings making up about 82% of the fund's holdings according to M*.
  • Daily Shot: (T Rowe Price) Latin America Fund - "Lying With Charts" + Bonus: Baron Small Cap Fund
    Received this from the Daily Shot: [Link: http://tinyurl.com/dailyshot-trplatam ]
    Here is an excellent example of lying with charts. This Latin America fund looks amazingly steady and yet the recent losses have been worse than at any time since 2008 - all thanks to a bizarre construction of the y-axis.
    image
    Note: Chart is, I believe, the third chart from the bottom.
    Frankly, rather disappointed and surprised at the folks at TRPrice. Have others noticed other deceptive performance graphs in annual reports, at either TRP or other firms? Thanks.
    The original can be seen on page 11 of the fund's most recent semi-annual report, available here:
    http://individual.troweprice.com/gcFiles/pdf/srlam.pdf
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    I may not have been sufficiently clear. Many funds offered in VAs are not designed (from a legal perspective) to be offered for sale as securities. Even if they are structured that way, they are rarely offered for sale outside of an insurance policy. The two funds I wrote about are generally not sold outside of insurance policies.
    This has nothing to do with tax efficiency. Though with a tax cost ratio over the past five years of 1.5% and nearly 3% in the past year, I might have second thoughts about keeping this fund in a taxable account. To put those figures in perspective, DBLTX's tax cost ratios over the same periods are 2.3% (five year) and 1.8% (one year) - that's for a pure bond, ordinary income fund.
    The Voya fund prospectus reads: "Shares of the Portfolio are not offered directly to the public. Purchase and sale of shares may be made only by separate accounts of insurance companies serving as investment options under Variable Contracts or by Qualified Plans, custodian accounts, and certain investment advisers and their affiliates, other investment companies, or permitted investors.
    The AZL fund prospectus states likewise: "Shares of each Fund are sold exclusively to certain insurance companies in connection with particular variable annuity contracts and/or variable life insurance policies (each a “Contract” and collectively the “Contracts”) they issue.
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    @mcmarasco
    "Does anyone know anything about the Voya versions (virtual clones) of PRWCX (ITRAX / ITRIX / ITCSX / ITCTX)? They are open according to M*, but can the average investor purchase them???"
    According to test trades I just made, these clones are not available at WellsTrade, Fidelity, TDAmeritrade, Scottrade and Firstrade. I still think that the most attractive option is to get a friend or acquaintance of yours to gift you a share between taxable accounts at a given brokerage.
    Kevin
    This is a fund designed for tax advantaged accounts. One finds it in individual variable annuities, college 403(b) plans, etc. So the question is: how desperate are you to purchase a PRWCX clone?
    You can purchase the ADV class (ITRAX, 1.24% ER) through a Voya Preferred Advantage VA. The annuity itself adds another 0.60% fee. IMHO, that's too high a total cost - the 0.60% annuity fee is about the same as Schwab's, but you're paying up for the fund (it's tacking on a 0.75% 12b-1 fee).
    On the plus side, the annuity has no withdrawal fees, the min for the whole VA (all investments) is $5K, and the annual maintenance fee is waived with a relatively low $15K balance. Also, the contract is relatively straightfoward - 50 pages plus fund descriptions, which may sound like a lot, but most of this is required to describe a basic annuity; no bells or whistles.)
    Another option is to invest in AZL T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation. A combined (print) page with all the M* info is here (scroll past the nonexistent analyst report for the rest of the info).
    You can purchase this inside the Allianz Retirement Pro® VA. This is a low cost VA, rated one of the top 10 traditional VAs by Barron's a couple of years ago, along with Vanguard/Monumental Life), Fidelity, TIAA-CREF (see embedded graphic) - Top 50 Annuities, May 27, 2013.
    The VA costs 0.30% (Base Account, not the Income Advantage Account, which is a more restrictive and costly GLWB rider). The Class 2 shares of the PRWCX clone have an ER of 1.05%, for a combined cost of 1.35%, 1/2% below the ING offering, but still not cheap.
    This annuity requires a min of $75K (across all investments), and charges an annual maintenance fee unless the balance is above $100K.
    I don't suggest investing in these clones, but since the question was raised about how the average investor purchases them, there you have it. It is possible that other retail annuities offer these clones, though I am doubtful, because these seem to be proprietary clones offered through proprietary VAs (e.g. Voya clone offered through Voya VA).
  • Barry Ritholtz Masters In Business: Guest Paul McCulley
    Thank you. Paul McCulley always provide informative interviews from a macro-economic perspective. Another interview in April 2015 in Wealth Track was equally informative.
  • Ten Solid Mutual Funds For Income Investors
    "Many well-crafted mutual funds are designed to help income investors meet their objectives, whether it be for retirement or to just have some extra cash on hand."
    I've always found CS reporting rather shallow. No exception here. The two T. Rowe Price funds on their list, PRFDX & TRREX, lost 35% and 39% in 2008 respectively. Description might better read: "Buy these funds at the wrong time expecting to generate income and you might NOT have any extra cash on hand or retire as early as you'd like.
  • Ten Solid Mutual Funds For Income Investors
    FYI: If you're an investor looking to boost income rather than long-term growth, you have a ton of great options. Many well-crafted mutual funds are designed to help income investors meet their objectives, whether it be for retirement or to just have some extra cash on hand.
    Some of these funds are pure income plays designed for those in or near retirement, while others also offer some nice capital appreciation
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Saving-Money/2015/0825/Ten-solid-mutual-funds-for-income-investors
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    @mcmarasco,
    Since my holdings are all with American Century, my suggestions would be narrowly focused. I hold ASDVX for the short duration unconstrained bond. AMJVX is their multi-asset income fund and ALNNX is their alternative income fund which I use as a complement to AMJVX.
    For short duration, I like the template my fund has. < 2 years duration. Unconstrained gives the fund management more leeway as where to go.
    For income funds, I also favor the anywhere style of unconstrained and multi-asset. The markets of today are complicated with various types of investments. As I mentioned above, I use ALNNX as a complement. There are some duplicate strategies between both funds but ALNNX includes hedging and other strategies. The way it performed in this past downturn was impressive, but that is also just one event. With the bond markets as they are investors have to change their thinking somewhat as being in longer term bonds during a period of rising rates will surely be counterproductive.
    These strategies are relatively new and M* doesn't classify them properly. Running some Google or Bing searches may provide more answers.
    Edit: BlackRock has a decent offering in the multi-asset income sphere. BAICX.
    http://www.blackrock.com/investing/products/227565/blackrock-multi-asset-income-inst-class-fund
  • Strategy for re-allocating to stock fund positions
    I want to thank each of you very much for your detailed and thoughtful comments. I'm always impressed reading about the strategies that each of you employ. I've got a lot to learn. Thanks in particular to Scott, Press,and Old Skeet for the discussion of specific ideas and links. Gives me some great weekend reading for strategy development!
    Scott, I'm quite intrigued by your discussion of real estate investments. You clearly know this area well. If I'm somewhat limited in the amount of capital currently available I'm wondering if it might be better to with a REIT fund vs. individual names. Are there specific funds that you like a great deal in this area? If not, I can do some research on the names that you list above and perhaps just buy small positions across a few stocks. I'm also reading up on Ecolab based on your earlier posts. That also looks quite interesting. thanks so much again everyone!
    Good article on dividend payers in Morningstar today -- http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=712994
    Thanks!
    I think my issue - and I emphasize that this is a me thing - is that I don't want a lot of retail and I don't want apartments. The latter is more an instance of "at this time" and the former is more of a long-term view. I've thought for a long time that - in terms of retail - the highest quality and most innovative operators will succeed. I also have no interest in hotel REITs.
    I think "dime-a-dozen" mall operators will struggle or go. DDR - which was obliterated in 2008 and is still nowhere remotely near its pre-2008 levels - is an example of what I don't want. Simon Property took its strip malls and spun them off into a different company. We are overbuilt on retail in this country and one of the reasons (among many) that I've never really been enamored with the Sears bull thesis.
    "Consider this: The number of enclosed shopping malls with a vacancy rate at or above 40% – the point at which malls typically enter their death throes – has more than tripled since 2006. Nearly 15% of all enclosed malls are suffering from a vacancy rate between 10% and 40%, according to Green Street Advisors" (http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/03/11/mall-reit-simon-property-group/)
    I like Tanger Outlets (SKT) due to management and due to the fact that people like the high-end outlet concept. Go to one of these high-end outlet malls on a weekend and they're jammed. Go to one of them on a particularly busy period (when people are doing back to school shopping or Christmas shopping) and they're a mob scene. At least that I've seen.
    General Growth (which I have exposure to via Brookfield Property) and Simon (SPG) are fine, with the latter also having a significant portfolio of premium outlets. So, I'm not a fan of malls. I do think that some large, quality operators will innovate and continue to succeed, but I really, really don't want much exposure to malls and I don't want strip malls/dime-a-dozen malls.
    Retail Opportunity (ROIC), which I mentioned above, is somewhat different from the fact that it is retail, but with need-based anchors (drug stores and grocery stores), which I think gives that some level of defensiveness.
    I think apartments in major cities are a compelling investment with high barriers to entry and people have to live somewhere. That said, I don't feel comfortable investing in apartment REITs with apartment rents at absolute record highs that don't feel terribly sustainable over the long-term. I like things like Equity Residential (EQR), but I have no interest in them at these levels. Again, longer-term I think quality apartments in major cities are great, but they'd need to come down quite a bit to get to an interesting entry point.
    I don't own it, but I'm slightly interested in things like Lamar Advertising (LAMR), a REIT that is basically outdoor/indoor advertising spaces. I do think that with the rise of mobile phones, people who are waiting at the airport and elsewhere will have an increasingly larger level of interactivity with advertisements on a daily basis. Their website is pretty ridiculous, you can literally see every advertising space they own. I'm not looking to add to much of anything right now, but I may explore this further. There are only a few major billboard companies and those few enjoy the majority of market share. Also, regulations may limit new competition. This wasn't a REIT until a year or two ago. The real big problem here in the short-to-mid term is that it is at its core .... advertising. In a 2008 situation, this will get obliterated. Longer-term I do think outdoor advertising may become a more and more compelling space as there is more and more interactivity due to smartphones - someone's sitting at an airport and they can scan a cereal poster with their phone for a coupon and when they use their mobile wallet to buy the cereal the coupon will already be there. We're not there yet, but I think it's an eventuality.
    Not a fan of hotel REITs not because, I mean, look at 2008. Many of these companies bought right into the top and not only were the shares rocked, many either cut or eliminated dividends, with some not bringing dividends back for years after - see Strategic Hotels and Resorts - while that is now entertaining a possible sale, it was $23 in 2007 and $1 by 2008 and never reinstated its dividend. Are hotels in major cities interesting in terms of barriers to entry? In theory, but geez, these are economically super-sensitive.
    I like high quality office space in major metropolitan areas. Brookfield (BPY, or BAM if you want to go with the parent if you don't want to deal with a partnership) is an example. Vornado is a great example, but I think a lot of REITs ran up to a silly degree earlier this year because of a hunt for yield. Vornado's move towards $120 was way overdone and $78-82 is more fair value.
    As with healthcare in general, I think healthcare REITs will continue to do well and a number of names have been unfairly taken lower. I like Ventas (VTR), but HCP, HCN and Omega Healthcare are other options. I like Industrial/warehouse, although I don't think there's tons of names that grab my interest.
    Triple Nets (WPC, O) have been taken down to points where they're compelling.
    Certainly, in the shorter term there's a good deal that depends on the Fed rate hike and if the Fed does hike rates in September or December you may get a better opportunity for income names.
    As for income names, Pipelines have been unfairly obliterated by the combo of interest rate fears and concerns over anything oil-related. Inter Pipeline (IPPLF) just reported a record quarter and is down considerably. Quality MLPs (EPD, MMP) are down enormously and I just don't think the state of the business for these companies suggest the declines that have been seen.
    As for Ecolab, that's absolutely never going to be a home run. What I want is something that I think offers a high degree of consistency and whose business provides a need in both good times and bad. It's raised the dividend every year for 30+ years. The water aspect of Ecolab (ECL) is a core element of why I find it attractive, but the company works for me on a number of levels - as for hygiene and sanitation, hospitality/restaurant and other businesses have to maintain standards in good times and bad. (http://www.ecolab.com/about/our-businesses.) Again, I'm not looking for a home run with Ecolab by any means, I'm looking for something that I think works for a number of themes and I think will be consistent and relatively boring over the long haul.