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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Indomitable benchmarks!
    Well, then there is only one thing left to be done. Isn't it obvious? Go benchmark shopping! Find one that is "a more accurate reflection of our investment methodology," or whatever. Apply to recent results and--- voila!--- retrospectively, the 3- and 5-yr ave. annual returns "just happen" to beat their (new) benchmark as well. What a coincidence! History redone. Fund is now an awesome benchmark beater.
  • Three Grandeur Peak Funds in registration
    Grandeur Peak Global Stalwarts Fund
    Grandeur Peak International Stalwarts Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834415002529/fp0014041_485apos.htm
  • The Indomitable benchmarks!
    FYI: Active fund managers don't seem to be getting a break now, especially since their performance hasn't measured up for more than a decade. This article continues to clarify this indefensibly calamitous position they are in. We shed new light on how one can mathematically verify how weak these investment managers are, by also using more conservative statistics measures and more closely considering the selection of solid benchmarks themselves.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://statisticalideas.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-indomitable-benchmarks.html
  • MW (Merriman): Best target-date funds? Fidelity vs. Vanguard, 04-15-2015
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/best-target-date-funds-fidelity-vs-vanguard-2015-04-15
    "That means shareholders pay Fidelity $500 million a year to manage $84 billion. Vanguard shareholders, on the other hand, pay the company only $138 million to manage $82 billion in funds with similar asset allocations and levels of risk."
    "An obvious question: Do Fidelity shareholders get extra value for the extra money they pay. The obvious answer is no; in fact, it's just the opposite."
  • Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income: an invitation to confer and/or to share your questions
    Probably can't be on the call but will catch the replay/summary. Have always invested with Mr. Foster since reading about him at Mathews. Mr. Foster's answers to the following, should you ask him, will not affect my allocation with him. 1.) Morningstar lists 35 stock positions or holdings currently for Seafarer. Is this the approximate number of positions he will be targeting going forward ? 2.)If not, what are the factors that has him at 35 now? 3.) Does Mr. Foster spend his resources researching "frontier" markets or should we look to other funds for exposure to this market? Thanks for all that you, your " team", special commentary writers Charles and Edward, and the contributors to the discussion board do for all of us. Quite the successful endeavor be MFO.
  • Stop Deluding Yourself About Investing Expenses
    If we equate investing levels with schooling, the article appears to be directed at about grade level 3. Most here have long been aware that we pay fund fees and that in most cases they are hidden from view but are reflected in a fund's total return. No surprise to most here. However, among the general public, unfortunately, I've found ignorance and confusion about these fees. So it's a pretty good article, assuming it's directed more at those less sophisticated investors.
    The writer is on target when he compares our reaction to these hidden fees compared to how we react to more obvious ones. If I get hit with a $20 transaction fee or account maintenance fee I'm on the phone next day to ask why. But I pay hundreds or thousands of dollars a year in the hidden ones without a whimper. I think that's human nature.
    TB is correct in that one of the nicer things about the M* analyzer is its ability to calculate your average ER on all your holdings. I'm typically in the .70% area, which M* thinks is pretty good.
    It's an argument probably as old as fund investing. Some say fees don't matter much. Others attach great importance. I suspect that if you trade often (and successfully) they don't matter much to you. If you turn a quick 15-20% profit on an investment you only held for 3-6 months and than move on to another "conquest", what's an extra 2 or 3% in fees? But, if you're the buy and hold type, they matter more. I'd expect that the longer you hold a given investment, the more compelling the case would be for keeping fees low.
  • The Impossible Sale ! S&P 500 Index Fund
    @Old_Joe - I dug up M*'s grouping of funds for the purpose of rating expenses (average, high, low, etc.). As I recall, David had commented in the past that M* uses a different system than for its star ratings, and that's correct:
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=371758
    Since M* is already acknowledging that funds need to be sliced and diced differently when comparing fees (e.g. separating front load from institutional from retail), I felt it was fair to comment on this particular classification system.
    But it is the star rating categories (different classification system) that some people (as you note) tend to complain about. Also as you suggest, if one tries to slice things too finely, the groups are too small to be meaningful. That's not true when grouping index funds - in any category these days, there seem to be a plethora of them.
    @Old_Skeet - I looked into the class breakdown. According to the latest annual report, about $1.5B of the $2.1B total is invested in institutional (no load) shares. About 95% of the remainder is invested in the class A shares MSXAX.
  • The Impossible Sale ! S&P 500 Index Fund
    Still a lot of uninformed folks who are paying loads for the benefit of having an advisor run the investments for them, eh?
    I know of three married couples who are using full service advisors. I have asked and they don't know much about their investments, but that they are paying a 1.5% fee, plus buying the the front loaded funds.
    I have talked with these folks over the years and none of them had any interest in learning even the most basic functions of investing in funds. In both cases, available time was not a factor.
    Another, oh well moment. At the least, they are providing an income for another, who in turn spends the income back into the economy.
  • The Impossible Sale ! S&P 500 Index Fund
    For those who like to get on M*'s case, here's a good fund to use. M* rates its ER as "low" (compared with peers, which in this case I believe is large cap blend funds sold with a load).
    One part of that does make some sense (IMHO) - load funds tend to carry 12b-1 fees, so its 12b-1 fee is in line with that of its fellow load funds. But evaluating the ER of an index fund along with those of actively managed funds is more questionable.
    For S&P 500 index funds (but only for those index funds), Lipper has a separate classification. Among those funds, Lipper rates the ER of this fund 2 (higher than average expense). Thus raising the curiosity question - you mean there are more expensive S&P 500 index funds out there?
    The answer is yes! Surprisingly, one is even given in the linked blog: MYSPX, the Investor share class of the same fund. Lots of other families, including Rydex (RYSOX), with an even higher load (4.75%), and a whopping 1.57% ER. But don't worry, you can buy the fund without the load as a class H fund (RYSPX), albeit with a nearly identical ER. And M* does call those ERs "high".
    If for some reason you should want MSXAX, you can purchase it load-waived as well through Vanguard. Vanguard's page also reports that the ER of this fund is low, amounting to just 60% that of its category average. Again, the problem is the category in which the fund is placed.
  • The Impossible Sale ! S&P 500 Index Fund
    FYI: Consider a S&P 500 Index Fund with $2B in assets that charges a 60bps management fee and a 3% front-end sales charge.
    Think this is impossible? Think again…this exists in the real-world!!!
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2015/04/14/the-impossible-sale-an-sp-500-index-funds-at-60bps-with-a-3-sales-load/
    M* Snaphot MSXAX: http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=MSXAX&region=usa&culture=en-US
  • Stop Deluding Yourself About Investing Expenses
    Hi Tampabay,
    Thank you for reading, reflecting, and responding to my submittal.
    Although I've been investing since the mid-1950s, I still am in the learning mode. Presently, I use a multi-criteria list to sort candidate fund options. Based on a tidal wave of industry and academic studies, cost considerations are always one item on that list. Many believe it belongs at the top of that list.
    You suggested that a "Primary focus" is mandatory. It must be extremely significant in your selection process since you capitalized "Primary".
    Please tell us if you can what is Primary in your approach.
    I'm forever receptive to learning how I can improve my investment procedures. Please expand your comment; in its present form, it does not really inform.
    I'm sure, all MFO members will appreciate and possibly deploy your Primary insight.
    Best Wishes.
  • Elizabeth Bramwell, Ex-Gabelli Growth Fund Manager, Dies At 74
    Hi, Hank.
    We have no demographic data on you folks. On adamant principle, we've disabled the tracking functions of Google Analytics. We know aggregate onsite behavior (for example, how long the average visit is and how many folks are on-site) and some tech stuff (how many folks access us via smartphone, which operating systems and browsers folks use, and what city the router's in). And what we do have can't distinguish folks participating on the discussion board from casual readers or browsers.
    Hmmm... readership has drifted down a tad (23,700 in the past month), we're seeing vigorous traffic from Akershus, Norway (Hilsener! to our 94 Akershusian friends), time-on-site remains high at 5:21, 61.6% of visitors are using Windows, 0.33% of you visit using the Silk browser while only 0.07% use SeaMonkey, the most frequent outbound click was on Charles's table on funds ranked by Bear Market Deviation ... but ages? Nada.
    One of my retired colleagues spent an awful lot of time on campus during retirement. When I asked him why, he said it was simple: "I want to be somewhere that people talk about something other than their health."
    David
  • Elizabeth Bramwell, Ex-Gabelli Growth Fund Manager, Dies At 74
    Junkster said "... All the more reasons why some of us old timers need to start spending and enjoying what we have accumulated over the years. Life is short!".
    AMEN.
    -
    Assuming the age of a great many here to be 65 or over, I'm a little puzzled there isn't greater discussion about withdrawing money and putting proceeds to good use. How often are we as investors faced with a crucial investment decision? Rarely I'd say. By contrast, we make decisions about spending nearly every day of the week. Yet, nary a mention.
    I have some possible explanations. First, the average age of participants may be much lower than envisioned (I'd love to see whatever demographic data David has). If the average age is closer to 35 or 45, than it makes sense so much of the discussion revolves around buying/selling mutual funds, stocks, bonds or other investments. Another possibility is that many older folks who come here may fear they haven't saved enough to meet anticipated retirement needs - and are struggling to play catch-up at a late stage. The third (most likely) explanation is that it just isn't considered appropriate to mention spending on a forum devoted to investing.
    I'd never argue that one should stop investing - not at any age. Even late in retirement folks should be seeking to outperform the measly returns cash and many bonds now offer. And since retirement may well last 30 years or longer, younger retirees still need to be acute to growing the nest-egg. Also, some older investors are focused primarily on growing their assets for the benefit of posterity.
    Thanks Junkster and heezsafe for pointing this out in your recent posts. Just some rambling over coffee this morning.
  • The Breakfast Briefing: U.S. Why We Might Not Be in Bubble Territory Just Yet
    Sort of a curiously written article. If you go to Goldman's own site, here's their take on their research:
    Investors see growing overvaluations in both bonds and equities and have signaled concern about a valuation bubble forming, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for April.
    The proportion of global investors saying equity markets are overvalued has reached its highest level since 2000. A net 25 percent of respondents to the global survey say that global equities are currently overvalued, up from a net 23 percent in March and a net 8 percent in February. This is still, however, short of the record-high level of a net 42 percent in 1999.
    At the same time, the proportion of respondents saying that bond markets are overvalued has reached a new high in the survey’s history.
    Only 25% of investment managers think the market is (even a little?) overvalued? But even at the 1999 peak of the internet bubble (I guess bubbles don't actually have "peaks" but I was having trouble getting a better phrase), only a minority of managers thought it was?
    I wonder if a better headline would be: "Majority of investment managers institutionally blinded to evidence of unsustainable valuations"?
    David
  • Top Performing Foreign Stock Mutual Funds
    The 15-year number does not mean much to me. Cycles occur, as when U.S. stocks under-performed international from 2001-2007, and the reverse happened in 2008-2014. Most of these funds have had multiple manager changes in 15 years. I would be much more interested in looking at true diversified international (not global, not EM) with current manager track records or records including their previous intl fund stints. When I do that, I get a very different picture and group of funds.
  • @ catch22: Are Currency Swings Worth The Worrying?
    Hi @Ted
    This from my reply at your GMO link:
    "Yup. One has to know what the intention and/or meaning of a particular investment is attempting to do.
    Hell, healthcare will take a bang downward at some point in time, eh? One must pay attention to be an investor; deciding what they choose to do about/with risk and reward."
    >>>The article mentions "Worrying"; but only in the title line.
    As to currency swings. We all should understand that most standard active mutual funds do not apply a part of their operation to currency hedging.
    But, also part of our world of investing is that other choices exist that do allow for flexibilty with investment choices.
    From the GMO article link:
    While many investors cite volatility reduction as a rationale for currency hedging, a white paper from GMO's Catherine LeGraw argues:
    1) Volatility may be cut over the short-term, but not over longer horizons
    >>>Correct
    2) Volatility benefits have been reduced over time as companies become more global
    >>>Correct
    3) Even if volatility is lowered for international holdings, it isn't reduced for the whole portfolio as the hedging simply makes holdings more correlated with U.S. stocks
    >>>Partially correct, IMHO
    4) Hedging introduces leverage and hence tail risk (see the move in the Swiss franc).
    >>>Correct. Investing involves risk, period.
    >>>You directed this post towards me, and I am guessing this was based upon my notes to your GMO article post.
    Worrying here regarding investments? Not at this time. Which includes our holding of HEDJ.
    We sold our largest bond holding, LSBDX , beginning last October and unwound another large holding of PIMIX . LSBDX is at +.17% total return since mid-Oct, 2014 and -.21% YTD. PIMIX is about +3% YTD, and performing better than I expected. But, the monies from these sells have performed well with the purchases made with the monies.
    We're about 65% equity between U.S. and Europe, at this time.
    Europe, as we here know; has been going through stops and starts for investing for the past 5 years. The most recent QE program by the ECB may be of benefit; but I am not so sure of the overall long term value, at this time. The long time strength of the Euro finally started to decline (and stick) and we hope to ride this movement until the value of this is much less important.
    Lastly, regarding the Euro currency. If, in conjunction the current QE policy of the ECB reducing interest rates and supporting bonds; that a positive recovery and strength for this areas exports will require the Euro to continue to devalue.
    The holding periods for any of our investments is always subject to change dependent upon pricing and related market actions to any given sector.
    The only sector of question at this time is U.S. real estate. Yes, this area has had a decent run for some time now; but I don't really find a reason for the recent weakness; other than profit taking.
    Okay, time for more coffee; as I have to remove old carpeting/padding. YUCK !
    Thanks for the question, or curiosity.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Stop Deluding Yourself About Investing Expenses
    Hi Heathkit,
    Congratulations on your superior performance. You have made some wise and highly profitable mutual fund investment decisions. Indeed, the very bottom-line is how much you get to keep over the long haul. The lowest cost fund provider need not always produce the largest reward.
    I suspect scores of MFO members can boast of similar success. I can too, although only marginally. The relative winning was never an upward straight-line set of happenings for me. Staying the coarse is an important factor.
    Your outcomes and my outcomes are anecdotal experimental evidence that supports the proposition that some higher expense ratio funds do outperform less expensive rivals. Stock picking skills and better exit/entry timing can overcome the cost handicap. But be very careful when extrapolating your anecdotal experiences to an overarching market generalization. Broad statistics paint a different, more gloomy picture.
    In fact, research clearly demonstrates that higher costs matter in reducing the likelihood of actively managed funds achieving positive Alpha (excess returns) over extended timeframes. Outliers do exist; some fund managers are exceptionally talented folks. But the integrated overall statistics say that these superior investors are rare birds.
    How rare are these guys? Vanguard and Morningstar have done studies to put a number on these instances. Here are Links to the Vanguard and the Morningstar works:
    https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/investingtruths/investing-truth-about-cost
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=347327
    Vanguard presents a nice set of summary charts that clearly show that the median return for the lowest cost quartile consistently outdistances the returns from the median return of the highest cost option. These are overall statistics so outliers on the positive side of the distributions are always present. The trick is to identify these star performers early in their history. Yes that is possible.
    Further in the Vanguard paper, a figure shows the percentage of actively managed funds that outdistance their Index rivals over a 10 year period. The data is presented for 5 fund categories. For surviving funds, the Developed and Emerging market International funds had the highest outperformance likelihoods at 48% and 40%, respectively. Small Cap Blend fielded the lowest percentage of outperformance at the 26% level. Winners are out there; it’s our task to find them. Performance persistence beyond the study timeframe is yet another issue.
    Morningstar’s Russell Kinnel asked and answered as follows: “How often did it pay to heed expense ratios? Every time.”
    He concluded with some wise advice: “Investors should make expense ratios a primary test in fund selection. They are still the most dependable predictor of performance. Start by focusing on funds in the cheapest or two cheapest quintiles, and you'll be on the path to success.”
    Costs always matter, but are definitely not the singular criterion in making a final fund selection. The odds are better for the lower cost options. Don't allow anecdotal evidence to overwhelm base rate statistics.
    Nice talking with you.
    Best Wishes.
  • Equinox funds and EQCHX in particular
    Dear Mona,
    Thanks a lot, I understand that it works only when there is a trend. Perhaps like in health care now, but also with everything else, like currencies etc. What is surprising is how high this fund jumped during a single year. But then of course Equinox funds use many strategies, not all of them are doing well, so one of them could jump just by chance.
    More on this fund can be found at http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2014/02/14/610535/10068444/en/Equinox-Chesapeake-Strategy-Fund-Provides-Mutual-Fund-Investors-With-Access-to-Expertise-of-Legendary-Turtle-Trader-Jerry-Parker.html
    See also http://equinoxllc.com/sites/default/files/Chesapeake_ProdBro.pdf and http://www.chesapeakecapital.com
    Finder