It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
To test whether momentum managers earn consistently higher returns, I sort mutual funds into portfolios on their 4-factor model PR1YR loadings [look for the funds with high a PR1YR, i.e. momentum factor] and find that one-year momentum funds do not earn substantially higher returns than contrarian funds. ...
[Other] mutual funds [the ones that did well last year] don't follow the momentum strategy but are funds that accidentally end up holding last year's winners. Since the returns on these stocks are above average in the ensuing year, if these funds simply hold their winning stocks, they will enjoy higher one-year expected returns and incur no additional transaction costs for this portfolio. [Unlike momentum funds, that Carhart previously noted are high turnover, high expense funds.]
I'm skimming through a 2016 M* paper on the short term persistence of mutual fund performance. Like any responsible paper on the subject, it starts with Carhart's 1997 paper. " Carhart attributed this [short term persistence] effect to momentum, showing that recent outperformers happen to hold stocks with strong momentum on average, though they don’t necessarily follow a momentum strategy."If you continually monitor the M*, Lipper*, etc. charts and keep shifting money away from the poorer performing funds into the better performing ones in each “category” (as a good many do), than I’d say you are a “closet momentum player” - though probably unaware of it.
But allow me to attempt to explain. The fund manager who boosts returns by buying hot stocks (let’s assume “systematically”) is the real momentum player. He / she knows full well what they’re doing. The individual investor who moves money to that fund because it’s been “outperforming” itspeers is the unwitting victim of the momentum strategy - thus, a “closet momentum player”.
http://www.fwp.partners/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Performance-Persistence-Morningstar-2016.pdfthe positive and significant coefficient on the [momentum] factor [for large blend funds] suggests that the managers in the top quintile had greater exposure to stocks with positive momentum (or less exposure to stocks with negative momentum) than those in the bottom quintile during the holding periods. The adjusted R-squared indicates how well the model fit the data. In this case, the regression could explain 56% of the variance in the returns between the funds in the top and bottom quintiles. This means that the model explains a significant part of the story, but there is much it doesn’t capture.
[In plainer English, over half of the outperformance of hot large cap blend funds over the subsequent year is because they tend to hold more high momentum stocks. This effect doesn't last over longer periods.]
Overall, differences in momentum, rather than differences in skill, appear to explain return
persistence in the short term.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved. Powered by Vanilla