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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • interesting scenario: hybrid funds as a contagion bridge from a bond crisis to an equity sell-off
    Since reading this thread I've pinned the word "liquidity" to a few of my remaining brain cells. Here's David Fuller of Fullermoney commenting on the concept of "liquidity" and the recent closure of a highly leveraged etf:
    "Generally speaking, a high level of liquidity reduces volatility because institutional investors can enter or exit that market more easily. You can see this when comparing a chart of the S&P 500 Index (arguably the most liquid stock market index in the world), over the medium to longer term with indices of most smaller developed countries such as Denmark or Ireland, not to mention any emerging markets such as Brazil or India.
    However, the proliferation of hedge funds and particularly high-frequency trading (HFT) in many liquid markets certainly increases the intraday volatility, while producing occasional meltdowns, such as we last saw on 24th August. The HFT promoters and apologists frequently mention their contribution to liquidity. Yes, but on days when they account for most of the volume, and other investors are temporarily frightened into inactivity, we get either small meltups or much bigger meltdowns, usually caused by front running."

    Related Bloomberg article he referenced:
    world's biggest leveraged etf halts orders on liquidity concern
  • small value: HUSIX vs TDVFX
    I'm considering swapping one MFO-profiled fund (HUSIX) for another, TDVFX. I can do this without tax consequences. Both have performed poorly over the past year, but I expect that now and then from a deep value fund, that doesn't bother me (much.)
    My thoughts are: TDVFX has a lower expense ratio (1.20% vs 1.85%) and smaller asset base (about $500 million vs. $1 billion, including separate accounts), plus it seems more of a team-managed effort than one based on a star manager, and I rather prefer the idea of a management team based in St. Louis instead of Southern California.
    HUSIX is overweight is financials and basic materials. TDVFX is overweight in energy and industrials. I'm not capable of deciding which overweight is a more likely bet.
    One advantage to HUSIX is that it's remarkably tax efficient, only 3 basis points (0.03%) over the last 5 years, as opposed to TDVFX's still modest, but higher 0.73%, according to M*.
    HUSIX also had a record of bouncing back really well from bad years like the one it's been having.
    Any thoughts?
  • FAIRX composition
    Yesterday (10/15/15), BAC was up 3.52% , AIG was up 2%, SHLD was up 3.89%
    Meanwhile, FAIRX was only up .97%
    May we fairly deduce from this that the portfolio must look a lot different now than it did when it was last reported?
  • Lower gas prices means no Social Security increase next year
    @hank You have that profligate seniors problem, too? Just looking at the way they drive tells you all you need to know about 'em, hogging 2 lanes instead of one whenever they take a hank-ering. :)
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/15/us-retirement-medicare-cola-idUSKCN0S925S20151015?feedType=nl&feedName=PersonalFinance
  • 3D Printing, Robotics and Technology Fund to liquidate (surprised?)
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1590074/000143510915000941/outlook_497e.htm
    497 1 outlook_497e.htm
    3D PRINTING, ROBOTICS AND TECHNOLOGY FUND (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated October 15, 2015 to the Prospectus dated May 1, 2015, as supplemented July 9, 2015
    On October 14, 2015, the Board of Trustees (“Board”) of Outlook Funds Trust (the “Trust”) approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (the “Plan”) pursuant to which the assets of the Fund will be liquidated and the proceeds remaining after payment of or provision for liabilities and obligations of the Fund will be distributed to shareholders. The Fund’s investment adviser (the “Adviser”) has recommended that the Board approve the Plan based on market conditions and economic factors adversely affecting the ability of the Fund to conduct its business operations in an economically efficient manner, and the Board concluded that it is in the best interest of the Fund’s shareholders to liquidate the Fund pursuant to the Plan.
    In anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund will stop accepting purchases into the Fund on October 15, 2015. Thereafter, the Fund will begin its process of winding up and liquidating its portfolio assets as soon as reasonably practicable. As a result, the Fund will not be pursuing its investment objective after October 15, 2015. Reinvestment of dividends on existing shares in accounts which have selected that option will continue until the liquidation.
    The Fund anticipates that it will complete the liquidation on or around the close of business on November 13, 2015 (the “Liquidation Date”). On the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make liquidating distributions to each remaining shareholder, equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and thereafter the Fund will be terminated and dissolved.
    If you own Fund shares in a tax deferred account, such as an individual retirement account, 401(k) or 403(b) account, you should consult your tax adviser to discuss the Fund’s liquidation and determine its tax consequences.
    * * *
    For more information, please contact a Fund customer service representative toll free at
    (855) 330-6225.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    255-PSA-1015
    3D PRINTING, ROBOTICS AND TECHNOLOGY FUND (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated October 15, 2015 to the Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated May 1, 2015, as supplemented on July 9, 2015
    On October 14, 2015, the Board of Trustees (“Board”) of Outlook Funds Trust (the “Trust”) approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (the “Plan”) pursuant to which the assets of the Fund will be liquidated and the proceeds remaining after payment of or provision for liabilities and obligations of the Fund will be distributed to shareholders. The Fund’s investment adviser (the “Adviser”) has recommended that the Board approve the Plan based on market conditions and economic factors adversely affecting the ability of the Fund to conduct its business operations in an economically efficient manner, and the Board concluded that it is in the best interest of the Fund’s shareholders to liquidate the Fund pursuant to the Plan.
    In anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund will stop accepting purchases into the Fund on October 15, 2015. Thereafter, the Fund will begin its process of winding up and liquidating its portfolio assets as soon as reasonably practicable. As a result, the Fund will not be pursuing its investment objective after October 15, 2015. Reinvestment of dividends on existing shares in accounts which have selected that option will continue until the liquidation.
    The Fund anticipates that it will complete the liquidation on or around the close of business on November 13, 2015 (the “Liquidation Date”). On the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make liquidating distributions to each remaining shareholder, equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and thereafter the Fund will be terminated and dissolved.
    If you own Fund shares in a tax deferred account, such as an individual retirement account, 401(k) or 403(b) account, you should consult your tax adviser to discuss the Fund’s liquidation and determine its tax consequences.
    * * *
    For more information, please contact a Fund customer service representative toll free at
    (855) 330-6225.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • interesting scenario: hybrid funds as a contagion bridge from a bond crisis to an equity sell-off
    An interesting speculation that comes from UBS via Bloomberg through David Stockman (long ago, Reagan's budget guy):
    if there's a liquidity crunch in the bond market, e.g., some sort of panic in high-yield debt, investors will begin redeeming their hybrid funds. If the bond market was acting irrationally, managers who needed to meet redemptions would be tempted to sell their most liquid-stocks because that's where they could quickly and easily raise cash. Most 60/40ish funds (collectively they hold $1.4 trillion in assets) have large cap, blue chip portfolios (Microsoft is the #1 holding in the aggregate), so a bond crisis might trigger disproportionate selling in U.S. large cap stocks.
    I have some unresolved questions about the argument:
    • do 60/40 funds invest much in the most vulnerable bonds? They have a 15-20% corporate stake but that doesn't directly address credit quality or duration.
    • do panics in low-quality bonds typically spread to higher-quality ones or does the "flight to quality" impulse make it a wash?
    • assuming that hybrid funds sell $100 billion in blue chips over the course of a week, would that be unmanageable? Microsoft trades 35-80 million shares a day and is currently priced in the mid-40s so $2-3 billion/day is normal.
    Not clear what one would do with this insight, even if true.
    For what interest that holds,
    David
  • Long short Anyone?
    I agree bonds usually protect value in bear markets and VWIAX has all of the advantages mentioned. As an acid test I look at the 2008 losses to see what happens in the "perfect storm" ... VWIAX lost about 18%. If this was the loss of your entire portfolio for a long term investor that is probably acceptable, but it would do little to mitigate the 45% loss of the SP500. The other unknown is what happens to the bonds in VWIAX going in a major downward trend starting at the prices most bonds command now
  • Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund subscription offering info
    @TheShadow - I received a little less than my full requested allotment for a taxable account - so I assume I received the max they gave out unless they have some weird formula based on your current GP holdings. My allotment was $50k, which I was surprised to get that much.
    @JoJo26 - it is a very small part of my portfolio, so it doesn't make it much more risky.
  • Earning Season Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road! Companies Reporting Earnings Thursday Link
    The Thread is now updated with 10/14 (Closing) & 10/15 (Opening & Mid Day) Data Links
  • WSJ: Are you ready to buy stocks from your grocery store?
    a $25 dollar gift card will cost $4.95!! it's a 20% commission for a partial share! C'mon... it's cute, but not reasonable.
    It's not good, but it is far better than the almost insane amount that services like giveashare are charging. There are a number of services like that where they are selling paper certificates and the end price is nuts. Abbott is about a $40 stock. The cheapest option on giveashare - registered share of Abbott in a paper frame - is $81.
    http://gizmodo.com/5910225/buying-one-share-of-facebook-stock-is-a-total-rip-off
    "Buying through a one-share site is generally more expensive for customers than buying through a broker. Both GiveAShare.com and OneShare.com charge a $39 fee for their services, which include buying the share and procuring the paper stock certificate."
    So, while this isn't without issue, I think it's a far more appealing option than what already exists in terms of the "gift a share" services.
  • Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund subscription offering info
    @briboe69
    @jojo26
    It is no different than someone allocating $5,500 a year ($458.33 per month(less than 50 yrs old)) or $6,500 a year ($541.67 per month(more than 50 years old)) for a roth retirement account. If you fully fund your self directed retirement account it amounts to about the same thing. It may be the poster's retirement account as he never mentioned what type of account he was subscribing for.
    Plus, the poster mentioned that it was nice to invest up to $500 per month. If my memory serves me, Wasatch offered a similar option when it offered the International Opportunities fund years ago.
    One of my retirement accounts is BRUSX.
    $6,000/year seems kind of high for a micro cap allocation... Unless you have stockpiles of money that you don't know what to do with or like taking a lot of risk.
  • "Smart-Beta" in ETF Structure, the J Hancock/DFA Way
    E.T.F. Specialist: A Closer Look at the New John Hancock ETFs | 10-14-2015
    These funds effectively mimic Dimensional’s distinctive investment approach in an index format.
    Morningstar's take: http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=717639
  • Gold Over 200 Day Hurdle

    Joe Deaux
    Ranjeetha Pakiam
    October 14, 2015 — 2:50 PM CDT
    Updated on October 14, 2015 — 8:52 PM CDT Bloomberg
    image
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-14/gold-comes-back-to-life-as-prices-top-200-day-moving-average
    Gold at Over 3-Month High on Bets Fed To Delay Rate Hike
    Thomson Reuters | Last Updated: October 15, 2015 07:27 (IST)
    Gold is a non-yielding asset and tends to benefit from ultra-low rates.
    It also benefited as the dollar on Wednesday slumped to its lowest since late August against a basket of major currencies. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.
    Elsewhere, Elliott Management Chief Executive Paul Singer said on Wednesday every institutional portfolio should be 5-10 percent invested in gold to protect against zero interest rates that are degrading the value of paper currency.
    Among other precious metals, silver hit a 3-1/2-month high of $16.18 an ounce on Thursday before easing slightly. Platinum climbed to a five-week high of $999, before giving up gains to trade down 0.2 percent. Palladium edged up.
    http://profit.ndtv.com/news/market/article-gold-at-over-3-month-high-on-bets-fed-to-delay-rate-hike-1232386
  • WSJ: Are you ready to buy stocks from your grocery store?
    a $25 dollar gift card will cost $4.95!! it's a 20% commission for a partial share! C'mon... it's cute, but not reasonable.
  • Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund subscription offering info
    Where do you people get the $$ to invest $500/month ($6000/year) in a micro cap fund
    from my ex-husband ;)
  • High-Yield Bonds Look Attractive
    Sector Report
    Guggenheim Partners
    High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - October 2015
    October 14, 2015
    Report Highlights
    The Credit Suisse High-Yield Bond and Leveraged Loan Indices posted losses of 5.2 percent and 1.2 percent for Q3 2015, respectively, the worst performance since Q4 2008 for high-yield bonds and since Q3 2011 for bank loans.
    There may be some additional volatility ahead, but we are already seeing value that has resulted from spread widening over the past few months. The relative value of B-rated corporate bonds over higher quality credits looks especially attractive given our positive macroeconomic outlook.
    Leverage ratios, which have returned to historical highs, are indicative of a rapidly advancing credit cycle, but debt burdens are manageable given low borrowing costs. We believe leveraged credit markets have room to run in the current cycle.
    http://guggenheimpartners.com/perspectives/sectorreport/high-yield-and-bank-loan-outlook-october-2015
  • Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund subscription offering info
    @briboe69
    Congratulations! That was partially the reason why I initially called GP was to make sure my email address was legible and correct since I scanned it into a PDF file then emailed it. My handwriting is not the best.
    I received my full allotment that was requested which will be for a taxable account. Did you receive your full amount or less?
    @jojo26
    It is no different than someone allocating $5,500 a year ($458.33 per month(less than 50 yrs old)) or $6,500 a year ($541.67 per month(more than 50 years old)) for a roth retirement account. If you fully fund your self directed retirement account it amounts to about the same thing. It may be the poster's retirement account as he never mentioned what type of account he was subscribing for.
    Plus, the poster mentioned that it was nice to invest up to $500 per month. If my memory serves me, Wasatch offered a similar option when it offered the International Opportunities fund years ago.
    One of my retirement accounts is BRUSX.
  • Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund subscription offering info
    Where do you people get the $$ to invest $500/month ($6000/year) in a micro cap fund, which shouldn't be a large allocation of one's overall portfolio!