Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Anyone Invest In TRLGX?
    In my 401k, but I trade it just like anything else based on my models. So don't really look inside it too much.
  • JPMorgan Says Smart Money Has Been Selling EM Assets
    Emerging market currencies are falling back toward earth after an extended run in which they defied gravity—also known as rising U.S. interest rates.
  • JPMorgan Says Smart Money Has Been Selling EM Assets
    FYI: Stocks down for a third successive week, bond yields at their highest since 2016 and a currency market replete with bears.
    Such have been the declines in emerging markets that the more sanguine commentators have begun saying the selloff has run its course and it may even be time to buy the dip.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/jpmorgan-says-smart-money-has-been-selling-em-assets-38544.html?print
  • Tom Madell: Rocky Market Ahead? These Funds/ETFs Might Help You Survive It
    @bee, thank you for your notes added to the original thread.
    From Mr. Madell's write: The eft's in his list vs the VTSMX total market index (U.S.)
    The list is broad market of various styles, but not really much to sectors within styles. I will agree to this point of his notation of correlation in the equity area. I see that he mentioned a few sectors for correlation reference, but I didn't see any tech. or health.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?VTSMX,VUG,VV,VTV,VOT,VO,VOE,VBK,VB,VBR&n=1258&O=111000
    We tend to travel in equity sectors (bond sectors, too) vs broad, although this path has been chosen from time to time with ITOT.
    A few of the sectors and active managed funds where we have had monies in the past 5 years to align with the writers time frame.....versus VTSMX. They are: FDGRX , FCNTX , JAGTX , FSPHX , and PRHSX.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?VTSMX,FDGRX,FCNTX,JAGTX,FSPHX,PRHSX&n=1257&O=111000
    I can't disagree with the correlation he indicated for his choices; but sector choices can and do matter, too.
    However, sector investing can cause more emotional risk to the investor; and at times, monetary risk. One being curious about investments in these areas, must also tie this to study and patience.
    Sectors have cycles too, for any number of reasons and there are times of what I call the doldrums or "horse latitude" investing.
    --- What are horse latitudes and how did they get the name?
    There are two sub-tropical high-pressure belts extending approximately between latitudes 15 and 30 degrees to the north and south of the Equator. Horse latitudes are generally areas of high pressure marked by calm, subsiding air that gets heated during descent. It is said that Spanish sailors ferrying horses to the West Indies were usually stuck for months in these calm waters and had to throw their horses into the water to conserve drinking water for themselves. This led to the term ‘horse latitudes’.
    The equity markets found "horse latitudes" during 2015 and 2016 to the point of potentially making one scratch their head wondering, "What have I done?"
    M* categories continue to indicate the lead of lg cap growth, with tech. and healthcare in the lead for the past 5 years. Small growth is the leader for the year by a tiny bit.
    At times, in spite of having to wait; one gets lucky ever now and then.
    Okay, done with self-therapy. :)
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Tom Madell: Rocky Market Ahead? These Funds/ETFs Might Help You Survive It
    A couple of Correlation Tools:
    What's the correlation of one Vanguard fund to another...find it here:
    https://adviseronline.investorplace.com/parts/tools/correlation-tool.html?fund1=500+Index&fund2=Wellesley+Income
    Portfolio Correlation tool (enter mutual funds, ETFs and or stocks):
    https://portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations
  • DSENX
    Bitzer, it's bench mark is large value, not the S&P 500. Against it's benchmark, the LV category, it is not performing poorly. Seems LV may be taking a pause right now with higher than normal valuations.
    I respectfully disagree on the benchmark, and am admittedly out of the mainstream here.
    The CAPE index rotates among all sectors of the domestic market, not just ones that focus on value stocks. Its method of selection is not to pick stocks or sectors that are undervalued relative to the market. Rather, it selects sectors, including growth sectors, that are undervalued relative to themselves - relative to their historical (perhaps high) valuations. Its fishing pond, so to speak, is the entire S&P 500.
    Thus, IMHO, that is the appropriate benchmark. In addition, that is the benchmark (aside from the CAPE US Sector index) selected by the fund itself to benchmark its performance. See summary prospectus.
    Buying heavily into blend or even growth stocks (relative to the market) is not merely hypothetical. Here is the most recent sector allocation disclosure of DSENX (March 31, 2018 portfolio). Using iShare ETFs as proxies for the S&P 500 sectors, the allocation was:
    Consumer Staples (XLP): 25.13%
    Consumer Discretionary (XLY): 25.10%
    Healthcare (XLV): 24.99%
    Technology (XLK): 24.78%
    A M* instant X-ray shows a portfolio that's 31% value (29% large cap), 30% blend (27% large cap), and 39% growth (38% large cap).
    If you want to call this value investing, that's fine, but it's a different way of viewing value than M* or Lipper use - they look at the portfolio and compare it to the market as a whole (using standard metrics like P/E). So do the companies like S&P and Russell that define the value benchmarks. Viewed through this lens, the CAPE US Sector Index doesn't resemble value funds all that well.
  • Tom Madell: Rocky Market Ahead? These Funds/ETFs Might Help You Survive It
    FYI: Have you noticed that the majority of stock funds typically tend to move in the same direction, and frequently, with close to the same magnitude on any given day? For example, if the biggest US stock fund, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX), goes down 1.5%, most other US stock funds will likely go down too, often not far from the same percent. Of course, the degree of corresponding movement isn't 100% but can be surprisingly high, even across totally different fund categories, such as growth vs. value funds, or large-cap vs. small-cap.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://funds-newsletter.com/may18-newsletter/may18_newest.htm
  • Vanguard Target Fund Contemplation
    @Maurice, you are correct that $10K is for Admiral shares of index funds. Some active managed funds require $50K if the Admiral shares are available.
  • When Is It Unethical To Accept A Free Lunch With A Financial Planner?
    My brother, a veterinarian, once calculated the cost of a free puppy for his 4-H advisees. It was not trivial, but you received unconditional love.
    If you don't have a 15 year life expectancy, don't get a free puppy (or a pure bred, if that's your fancy); but, if there's no free puppy, why do you anticipate a free lunch?
    If you are smarter than the presenter, why go? How many follow up calls can you endure?
    If you not smarter than the presenter, go to more free lunches and select the best presentation. At least you got lunch.
    Separately, the lady for whom I am power of attorney has somewhat more than $1M, which will rapidly transfer to her assisted living owners. When I asked her BOA local office about investment vehicles, they referred me to their Merrill Lynch office at a different site, where they advised me that they usually didn't accept clients with less than $3M assets, but they might make a few suggestions on her behalf.
    While this may seem irrelevant, the point is that you had better get EVERYTHING in order while you have capacity, because your powers of attorney will face a daunting challenge to do their best for you.
    If there is a POA thread, send me to it.
  • Buffett, 'Oracle Of Omaha,' On Healthcare, Dividends, Geico
    Berkshire has underperformed the S&P for the last 10 years.
    He missed on Amazon and Google (as did I), and I would have bought Facebook at 18, when it was a bit above that, but, unfortunately, it failed to drop.)
    I can accept that a fund manager doesn't understand tech, but perhaps he should buy someone who does. I made a bit on Berkshire, but decided I'd be better served with dividend paying funds.
    I'd be a lot more confident about Berkshire if Warren was commenting on how well his replacements were doing while he continued to tweak their decisions.
    Buy the index funds as he has advised. He's no longer beating them. I'm not sure how many years of outperformance he has to achieve to keep up, but I'm not riding that dream.
  • David Snowball's May Commentary (5/4 update)
    @Ben.
    The MFO Risk is relative max volatility (of STDEV, DSDEV, Ulcer) versus that of SP500 ...
    image
    POPFX is still an equity fund. But, of those, it has about as low a volatility as it gets without holding large cash or bond allocation.
    c
  • DSENX
    Dunno about either; figured you would explain further and more exactly re 'ability of a management team to maneuver within the volatility of those expiration dates' --- management's processes and dynamics and timing. The monthly churn (CAPE) is not subject to maneuvering, I think.
    There are prior extensive descriptive writeups on this forum, from (I believe) ~12 and ~13 mos ago. Thought you knew, since you sounded as if you did.
  • When Is It Unethical To Accept A Free Lunch With A Financial Planner?
    @Maurice
    When I receive these, I discover as much as possible (curious) about the firm and the person. This includes a FINRA broker check. A few times over the years I have found negative data about a person; and of more interest is that some folks have switched jobs often.......not necessarily a bad sign, but interesting.
    I imagine that the business cost of such events are anticipated to be overwhelmed from monies from new clients. The majority of these I receive are folks who have passed "x" number of insurance level exams (read annuity) without other attributes; although about 1/4 are indeed accredited financial planners.
    Have not had a dinner.
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through April 2018
    All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium, including MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Correlation, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, and Fund Family Scorecard.
  • DSENX
    For sure with its automatic monthly 'value churn', CAPE should underperform SP500 at times, and certainly has recently.
    As for the effects of the bond sauce, which are not large, I get the following, rounded, total (unless I'm reading my calculator wrong, always a possibility):
    ytd - underperforming CAPE by 0.6%
    1y - underperformed CAPE by 0.7%
    2y - outperformed CAPE by a thin hair
    3y - underperformed CAPE by 0.7%
    4y - outperformed CAPE by 1%
    4.5y (since inception) - outperformed CAPE by 2.6%
    DSEEX better than the above, of course, but the last year and ytd it lags CAPE too.
    It appears the ER-covering bond sauce is getting staler.
    Yes, M* appears to have the style box wrong.
    >> investing in ... price movements of an index or indices which have expiration dates, and the ability of a management team to maneuver within the volatility of those expiration dates.
    Huh. Is that a useful way to characterize it?
  • Vanguard Target Fund Contemplation
    @ Maurice: I'm in the same boat, as end of third qter 2017 I moved 2 accounts there. I think it depends on how big of a hit you would be able to take & still sleep. Also what and when this cash will be needed. Retirement income fund lost about 10 % in 2008 correction. As for me I think I'll sit on cash until fall .
    Derf
  • Buffett, 'Oracle Of Omaha,' On Healthcare, Dividends, Geico
    FYI: Billionaire investor Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N)(BRKb.N) Vice Chairman Charlie Munger are answering five hours of questions from shareholders, journalists and analysts at Berkshire’s annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-berkshire-buffett-highlights/buffett-oracle-of-omaha-on-healthcare-dividends-geico-idUSKBN1I60JS?il=0
  • DSENX
    @Derf
    For the 1 year period:
    DSENX = +10%
    CAPE = + 10.8%
    JKF = +8.5%
    JKF is by no means a pure compare for the other 2; but gives a reference point if one were invested in large value index type.
    I imagine there exists any number of configurations for large value indexes.
    I "see" only the 5 digit tickers are currently highlighted and clickable.
    *****JKF The iShares Morningstar Large-Cap Value ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of large-capitalization U.S. equities that exhibit value characteristics.
  • DSENX
    DSENX , M* category indeed is listed as lg.cap value, while "investment style" is noted as "small growth".
    Chart compare, total 1 year returns for DSENX , CAPE , and my choice of etf JKF.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?DSENX,CAPE,JKF&p=5&O=011000