...that it timed well with my automated purchases. Schwab gives the option of automatic purchasing on 5th and 20th of each month; I have several of my long-term mutual funds set to purchase on those dates.

I just set that up at Schwab the other day! I can't believe on TDAmeritrade, that you have to sign a PDF and FAX or mail it for recurring mutual fund investments!! Supposedly, you can invest up to weekly.

...that it timed well with my automated purchases. Schwab gives the option of automatic purchasing on 5th and 20th of each month; I have several of my long-term mutual funds set to purchase on those dates.

Actually OOBY, M* shows over the last 3 years that ARIVX has captured 29% of the upside while taking on 59% of the downside. For 1 year, it looks even worst, 11% upside capture while taking on 69% of downside. Not trying to bash the guy, but the numbers don't lie. Those are some of the worst capture ratio numbers I've ever seen. Hopefully he makes up for those numbers in the next bear.

AMAG up 5%+ for me. Everything else not so good I'm sure. SLB fell to my buy price today. I'm now the proud owner of an oil services company. Okay, just part owner. Hope I didn't catch the blade side of that falling knife.

Rough day!
Only HCP and OAK held up in portfolio today.
Slammed everywhere else.
New word for 2015...contagion.

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
WSJ Slant:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-inch-lower-as-oil-prices-slide-1420464561?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Bloomberg Slant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-05/u-s-stock-index-futures-are-little-changed-after-weekly-decline.html
Reuters Slant:
http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USKBN0KE0WF20150105
MarketWatch Slant:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-point-to-lower-open-2015-01-05/print
Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
Sector Tracker: http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker

@alaska: SHRAX, over the last 15 years Richy Freeman have beaten the S&P 500 by 2.52%, and the Large-Cap Growth Fund Category by 3.47%. He has managed this fund since its inception in 1983.
Regards,
Ted

Hi Guys,
Thank you for the really nice exchange coupling charts like those generated by Callan and a reversion-to-the-mean investment strategy. A discussion of the merits and shortfalls of those charts and how they can be interpreted to improve investment outcomes was the main purpose of my original post.
I have been familiar with both the Callan charts and the reversion concept for many years. I am a fan of both. About a decade ago I asked myself the same question that is currently being explored on this thread.
Can you exploit the Callan rankings to better your investment returns?
A decade ago I did some analyses on this specific question; my answer was NO. Investing in last year’s top ranking winners or last year’s bottom ranking losers did more poorly than the S&P 500 Index as a benchmark. Unfortunately, I can not find my analyses, so I am reporting results from memory alone. That’s not reliable enough.
The good news is that professional financial organizations have completed similar analyses. These studies are just a little dated but they backstop my own work. One report is from Bearing the Bull that uses a J. P. Morgan chart similar to the Callan study. Here is the reference:
http://bearingthebull.com/2012/02/01/the-callan-conundrum/
This article demonstrates the benefits and the shortfalls of asset allocations. One shortfall is that a diversified portfolio has a low likelihood of reaching the best performance ladder heights. The benefits are that annual losses are never maximized and that portfolio volatility is significantly reduced.
Given that diversification lowers return standard deviations, here is a Link to a short Fidelity report that provides some excellent practical examples:
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/mutual-funds/diversification
By exploring enough options, it is almost always the case that some correlation can be identified that ties one variable to some desired output. Of course, the challenge is to locate a strategy that holds water over the long-term future. It seems like holes always develop in the water buckets and leakage compromises the “great” correlation.
It appears that the Callan-like charts provide no immediate solutions other than the promise that portfolio diversification is a pretty good plan. That’s something. Enjoy the references.
Best Wishes.

I would suggest 40% in Vanguard total stock market or ETF 20% in a municipal bond fund (I don't know much about you but a reference to 100k as fun money suggests at least a fairly high tax bracket. Total stock market is relatively tax efficient and will make sure you are diversified . With the remaining 40% I would make a number of bets(fun of course) you think are wise) These could include sector funds like health care. very management dependent funds that have very few stocks (50 or fewer ) like Oakmark Select,funds investments in frontier market and/or hedged international funds. Note in each case if you make the wrong bet you will underperform and outperform if you are correct.

Gotta respect His opinion (bummer), He's BEEN right too many Times, but I tend to lump all doomsayers in same hat, sooner or later they will be right....but they are wrong MOST of the time, and no backlash, they keep pitching and losing
not ME; I'm going with "making money in 2015" ( Jeff will too) if adjustments necessary? a minor inconvenience...

No worries.
I reached out to the source and here is response from Meb:
From: Mebane Faber
Date: Sun, Jan 4, 2015 at 8:09 PM
Subject: Re: GMOM Question
To: Charles

Just GAA is 0%, rest of ETFs are around 59 to 69 bps...and hopefully declining over time!

Charles I got that from you. Read my 10:15 AM post. This was taken directly from the MFO, Nov. fund discussion. If it's not true than you miss-reported. However I think I've seen that reported elsewhere as well.

Hi alaska.
Couple more questions...
What's your risk tolerance? On a scale 1 to 5. 1 being Very Conservative, hate seeing even slight temporary pull backs. To, 5 being Very Aggressive, which means you're ok with 50-60% drawdowns as long is there is no permanent loss of capital ... and any decline will recover over say 4-6 years.
What's your investment time horizon? 1, 3, 5, 10, or 20 years?
Of the two, the former is probably most important. So, be as sure as humanly possible in your self assessment.
c

Charles, GMOM has changed the .59 management fee, that you cited above in Nov. to Zero.

Am also trying to add to my small and micro-cap. Am particularly fond of WEMMX and BCSIX. May buy IWC (micro-cap ETF) instead.

For what its worth, micro caps are one area it possibly pays to go active. Because of liquidity, issues most passive funds trail their benchmark, iirc. Essentially indices have problems rebalancing in thinly traded markets because the required trades move the markets so much. You end up losing the benefit of the liquidity premium, which is what you want from micro caps to begin with.

Right, I don't think anything has changed...

Am I missing something?

Charles November 2014 in Fund Discussions
GTAA ETF to be dissolved at AdvisorShares, Cambria plans relaunch of strategy as GMOM ETF
Honestly, think this is good news...
Letter yesterday:
Cambria Investment Management, LP and AdvisorShares issued notice today that the two parties plan on separating, and Cambria will move on from sub-advising the Cambria Global Tactical EtF (GTAA) pending board and shareholder approval.
Cambria, as a fiduciary, is committed to offering the best possible investment portfolios to our investors. Cambria will be launching the successor to GTAA, the Cambria Global Momentum EtF (GMOM), at a management fee of 0.59% in the coming months. GMOM is currently subject to an effective registration statement, and we are finalizing the terms of the listing with the NYSE and the SEC.
Cambria has been managing global tactical portfolios since 2007, and together with GMOM we will continue to manage these strategies in separate accounts and private funds.
Cambria has launched three EtFs under our own sponsorship, including the Cambria Shareholder Yield EtF (SYLD), the Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield EtF (FYLD), and the Cambria Global Value EtF (GVAL).

@scott,
a quick review of PIRMX seems to reveal poor performance verses a blended 50/50 mix of "VGSIX / TIP" and barely out paced "TIP only" over its short existence.

Isn't that sort of what Pimco's Inflation Response Multi-Asset fund does?

Cool...have to familiarize myself with the fund. Thanks.
Some REIT articles:
will-rising-rates-hurt-reit-performance
REIT Correlations
White Paper Interest Rates & REITs
REIT-Stocks-An-Underutilized-Portfolio-Diversifier_Fidelity
rickferri reits-and-your-portfolio
The Impact Of Interest Rates On Real Estate Investment Trusts

Believe it or not, ARIVX remains a top quintile performer, life time.
Basically, it had a strong first year in 2011. But it's spent time in the barrel ever since.
The hefty 1.47%, which goes to pay RiverRoad, Aston, and now AMG among others, while holding nearly 80% in zero interest cash remains a drag.
The on-going bull market is casting a lot of defensive money manager in tough light. Mr. Cinnamond is in good company, if that helps any.
Numbers through November...