FYI: The S&P 500 is up a shade more than 10% for the year. If it can hold those gains – and the market is already in Santa-Claus rally mode – then that would mark three consecutive years of double-digit percentage growth. But one look at the sector breakdown should give the bulls pause.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/11/13/morning-moneybeat-a-utilitarian-stock-rally/tab/print/
Sector Tracker: Click On YTD: http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
Current Futures Looking Good: http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

FYI: One of the interesting aspects of any early stage innovation is that it is incredibly difficult to distinguish a breakthrough idea from a dud. At one point Twitter was considered a mere Internet curiosity, while the Segway was expected to revolutionize urban transportation. The proposed Bitcoin ETF is a classic case in point: If successful, it could make virtual currency trading more mainstream, which would be a breakthrough development. However, that success is currently not assured.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.etftrends.com/2014/11/understanding-the-proposed-bitcoin-etf-5-key-questions/

Let's see: when George was promoted to co-CIO back in 2011 or 2012, Royce went to some pains to publicly disavow the prospect that he was engaged in "succession planning." Some might imagine that was Royce's way of saying, "don't worry, I'm not trusting the shop to this guy."
And Mr. Royce just turned 75, one of those nice round ages where boards and others start pressing on you to get a plan.
I wonder if there now is a succession plan and Mr. George just learned that he's not part of it, leading him to get out of Dodge?
Curious, anyway.
David

Howdy @Junkster
From Oct 15 when I posted the thread regarding the 10 yr moving below 2% and one of your replies:
"I e-mailed heezsafe yesterday in fact, albeit had no idea it could be as soon as today. I said if he sent me his address I would send him a check right away. If that doesn't suit him I can send the check to David and he can forward it. As some of you noticed in my original and unedited post I said on a closing basis. This will be a great teaching tool for me till the day I expire about not trading or investing based on what we think but what we see. Like most, at the beginning of the year I thought rates could go only higher. Even afterwards and I made the bet I thought they had already bottomed (around 2.34 or so) and were gradually heading back up and didn't think we would see 2%. You know what (not allowed to mention it here for awhile) is also roaring as it has since I made that bet but it is soooooo overbought now. I just hope today isn't some key reversal day before the close!!! It sure is looking like a key reversal in bondland so far based on where we were early this morning and now. I believe for a true key reversal day yields would have to close up by today's close. If that happened it could well be a key reversal day in equities if they ended up closing higher on the day. I really would like to pay off this wager!!!! Funny thing about these forums when you are dealing with nameless and faceless posters. Now watch heezsafe disappear for whatever reasons and never be heard from again and not try to collect.
I've continued to move monies into healthcare funds, ITOT and GASFX when the equity and energy sectors took a hit a few weeks. The monies have come from the IG bond areas for the most part. I have retained some HY bond funds; as well as LSBDX and PIMIX.
Actually, alot of the market; in many areas, looks really sloppy; to me and IMO only.
It would be difficult, for me today; to direct an investor into a particular area that looks "good".
Up at 6am tomorrow...........pillow time now !!!
Take care,
Catch

BBH Funds
http://www.bbhfunds.com/wps/wcm/connect/bd5929004630ab3c8095e2c870621867/BBH+Funds+2014++Estimated+Year-End+Distribution.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&=true&id=1415891007859
AQR Funds
https://www.aqr.com/who-we-are/know-more/aqr-funds-announces-estimated-2014-capital-gains-distributions
Touchstone
http://www.touchstoneinvestments.com/documents/pdf/TSF618.pdf

Hello,
I check my portfolio's day ending valuation around 7:15 PM, during the Nightly Business Report program through both Yahoo Finance and Morningstar's Portfolio Manager ... They were both in sync with each other.
Happy days are here again.
Old_Skeet

FYI; A mutual fund does not have a “share price” like a stock. Rather, its price is the net asset value (NAV). NAV is calculated after adding the market value of all the securities and is then divided by the number of shares that fund investors own. Funds consider either the closing or last sale price of the securities and the value of other investments in its portfolio. Following this, fees and expenses are deducted and then divided by the total number of shares outstanding. NAV is calculated after the closing bell of the stocks exchanges.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/153848/pricing-a-mutual-fund-the-nav-factor?article_id=153848&type=BLOG

@MJG: Write it down the S&P 500 will end up 2014 at 2125, a 15% gain.
Regards,
Ted

Hi Guys,
Not being a daily market observer, I don't have a feel for consolidation.
But I do have a statistical feeling for how the equity market will end this year. I use the S&P 500 as an equity market proxy because of its readily accessible database.
In early November, I update my annual projections to reflect current status. I use a Bayesian Conditional Probability approach.
Given the current S&P 500 return, I ask what are the chances of a less than zero percent returrn at the year's closure? Given the current nice status, I further ask what is the likelihood of a return that exceeds a plus 20 % this year?
I used historical average return and standard deviation data for the months of November and December for the reference Index.
I forecast something like a 2 % chance that the Index will erode to a negative outcome this year. I forecast that the likelihood of a 20 % return or greater is about 15 % for the S&P 500 Index.
I like the asymmetric tilt to these odds.
I do this annual exercise mostly to refresh my analysis skills. Its output will guide what and when I complete my required minimum portfolio withdrawals.
Best Wishes.

Tweedy, Browne (10-15-2014 estimates)
http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/general/2014 Estimated Distributions 10-15-14.pdf
(The earlier link posted on page 1 goes to 404)

There's an app, whoops I mean E T F, for that.
PureFunds launches the first cyber security ETF
Nov 12 2014, 13:05 ET
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2120235-purefunds-launches-the-first-cyber-security-etf

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000329559&play=1

Legg Mason
https://individualinvestor.myleggmason.com/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_355661_3518_1277_37025_43/http;/indinvserver;8400/indivPortletWebApp/documents/tax_information/D17213-2014 December Estimates for Posting 2 F.pdf

FYI: The rates that utilities charge customers and the profits the providers of water and power can make are highly regulated, but utilities' stock gains have pushed the funds that focus on them to the No. 3 performing sector in the past 15 years as well as year to date.
A $10,000 investment in the average utility mutual fund on Sept. 30, 1999, would have grown to $28,940 by Nov. 10 this year, according to Morningstar Inc data.
Regards,
Ted
http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTg2NTQxMzA=
Enlarged Graphic: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBlv111214.gif&docId=726052&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1063&caption=&id=726044

I find a reliably precise 15 minute lag between when fidelity updates its information and when google finance updates its data. M* usually updates when google finance does or hours later on occasion, but never earlier. Something about it seems baked in. That secondary websites have a 15 minute lag. Also doubleline does always seem to update after the standard window.

@rono & @mark:
I have been Long/Short CT&FL for the last few years...I short FL in the summer and CT in the winter. Dividends are:
- I never lose my tan,
-open toed shoes and
-fresh produce.
It's an apples and oranges kind of portfolio...very fruitful.
@charles:
50% state muni ETF or muni fund
50% VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market)...adding state specific etfs might be a way of "goosing" sector weightings such as energy (TX, SD) or tech (CA,MA,NC) or trends such as boomer-nomics (FL, AZ).
The closest I have come to simplifying this idea in one mutual fund is USBLX which accomplishes this by combining national munis with a S&P index fund. It does this at a fairly high ER (1%). The fund advertises itself as a "growth and tax strategy fund" and M* categorizes it as conservative allocation.
Other question I have:
Are etfs treated like stock holdings when it comes to tax harvesting strategies...much like selling stocks to harvest losses?
Also, at death do etfs adjust their cost basis (like individual stocks) making them a better vehicle for inheritance than mutual funds?

Not sure what Art Cashin has to do with it.
The financial media won't talk about a lot of things in regards to the economy. Like talk about this:
http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/223578-obamacare-architect-lack-of-transparency-helped-law-pass
"ObamaCare architect: 'Stupidity' of voters helped bill pass"
or this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-11/fed-won-americas-01-are-now-wealthier-bottom-90
But yeah, Europe/UK are not in great shape.

FYI: I spend a large amount of time researching mutual funds and ETFs for my investment advisory clients and for writing investing stories like the one you’re reading now. But I also periodically run across what I call “outlier funds” with abnormal returns. Whether it be for curiosity or for strategic reasons, investors are wise to dig beneath the surface to understand such outliers.
Regards,
Ted
http://investorplace.com/2014/11/bond-etf-zroz-35-percent/print
M* Snapshot Of ZROZ: http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?t=ZROZ

Search: Bank of England report backs mood to delay rate rises ft.com
or
UK November Inflation Report
"In the short term, the bank thinks inflation is “more likely than not to fall temporarily below 1 per cent at some point over the next six months”
"But it thinks extremely low inflation will end within 2015, rising to 1.2 per cent by the end of 2014 and gradually higher to 2 per cent by the end of 2017"
My thoughts - this does not bode well for Europe/UK growth - not a good indicator for the US.
I'm wondering when the 'D' word will be discussed in public.

Good stuff bee.
Hey, attached is link to spreadsheet of SP500 companies by state (HQ resident in UsA)...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zQLGEjAd-gf19k5eMr46im_wsg19zahFd1pNOcO6ssE/pubhtml
or
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zQLGEjAd-gf19k5eMr46im_wsg19zahFd1pNOcO6ssE/edit?usp=sharing
Maybe you can create your own EtF...or, proxy.
c