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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bond calculator question
    I found a calculator calculator.net
    $100,000 5% monthly 1 year $5116 interest
    $100,000 5% yearly 1 year $5000 interest
    $100,000 5% monthly 5 year $28336 interest
    $100,000 5% yearly 5 year $27628 interest
    so it makes a difference but I'm looking for x% yearly is better than x% monthly.
  • Victory THB US Small Opportunities Fund was liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/802716/000168386325001674/f40971d1.htm
    497K 1 f40971d1.htm VICTORY THB US SMALL OPPORTUNITIES FUND
    Victory Portfolios
    Victory THB US Small Opportunities Fund
    Class A and Class I
    Supplement dated February 28, 2025
    to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated November 1, 2024
    On February 25, 2025, the Board of Trustees of Victory Portfolios (“Trust”), upon the recommendation of Victory Capital Management Inc., the Trust’s investment adviser, approved a Plan of Liquidation (“Plan”) for the Victory THB Small Opportunities Fund (the “Fund”). It is anticipated that the Fund will liquidate on or about April 29,
    2025. On the liquidation date, the Fund will redeem all its outstanding shares at the net asset value of such shares.
    In anticipation of the liquidation, at the start of business on March 3, 2025, the Fund will be closed to new investors and shareholder accounts. Through end of business on April 23, 2025, the Fund will continue to accept additional investments (including through the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains) from existing shareholders. In order to provide for an orderly liquidation and satisfy redemptions in anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund may deviate from its investment objective and strategies as the liquidation date approaches. It is anticipated that the Fund’s portfolio will be positioned into cash on or some time prior to the liquidation date.
    The Fund may pay more than one liquidating distribution in more than one installment. Distribution of liquidation proceeds to Fund shareholders may result in a taxable event for shareholders, depending on their individual circumstances. Shareholders should consult their own tax advisors about any tax liability resulting from the receipt of liquidation proceeds.
    If you wish to obtain more information, please call the Victory Funds at 800-539-3863.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR YOUR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • Apple sleazebags. News link.
    I still use their products (b/c I avoid Windows like the plague) but I am nowhere the Apple fan I was 5, 10, 15, or 30 years ago, that's for sure. Their QA has slipped noticeably in recent years and they're engaging in dirty tricks to keep their walled garden monopoly -- as the Epic case illustrates. But while I use their hardware, much of my data (files, contacts, calendars, email) are portable and/or used on other services b/c I refuse to be completely locked in.
    Their knowingly false advertising about (so-called) 'Apple Intelligence' last year was another example of them misleading people by offering them hopium in their quest to drive iPhone sales during their annual release cycle.
    (No, I did NOT intend for my post turn this thread into a general Apple-bashing thread.....)
  • May Day
    Today is a momentous day in the history of U.S. financial markets.
    On May 1, 1975, the SEC abolished fixed commission rates for stock transactions.
    Trading costs decreased significantly and the discount brokerage industry was subsequently unleashed.
    https://jasonzweig.com/the-day-wall-street-changed-forever/
  • Tariffs
    Hello, David. I saw those, too. They offer State totals. I'd have to add 50 State totals together in order to get the national total of votes for the likes of Jill Stein. I don't want to bother.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/30/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/30/25
    BEARISH remained the top sentiment (59.3%, very high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (19.8%, very low); bullish became the middle sentiment (20.9%, very low); Bull-Bear Spread was -38.4%* (very low). Investor concerns: Tariffs, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, budget, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (166+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+5 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 36.98% (negative). 2025/Q1 GDP growth was negative fueling worries of US slowdown or recession. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
    *Negative since 2/5/25.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1969/thread
  • Tariffs
    Relatedly --
    Peter Navarro is delusional .... on CNBC: says this morning's horrible economic numbers are actually good news because if you remove the effect of tariffs "you have 3 percent growth. So we really like where we're at now."
    That's the same BS economists use to spin data when drawing distinctions between 'CPI' and 'core CPI' which excludes food/fuel -- 2 major day-to-day expenses in a person's life.
    While I think he's getting it wrong, what he is doing is different from stripping out food/fuel from CPI.
    Thumbnail version:
    GDP =
    C (personal consumer expenditures) + I (gross private investment) + G (government purchases) +
    NX (net exports)
    If private companies increase inventory, that adds to "I", regardless of who produces the inventory items. So we have to subtract out those items that were imported to get to what was produced domestically. (This is done with the NX term.) Subtracting out a quantity that doesn't comprise GDP is different from subtracting out fuel/food which is part of CPI.
    ---
    Navarro is looking at the 21.9% increase in gross private domestic investment. The "domestic" part just means that purchases are by companies in the US; it doesn't mean that the purchases are only of domestic products.
    https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/gross-private-domestic-investment
    Companies were buying tons of imports in the leadup to tariffs. That's why we have the 21.9% jump in private investment. I haven't identified where his net (of import) 3% figure comes from. I have guesses, but macro isn't my strong suit and it's not worth my spending more time wading through the numbers.
  • Evaluation and Ranking of Market Forecasters
    where can i get some of that technical analysis ensuring that 100-150 age for my drawdown?
    enquiring actuarials await.
    Don't you mean actuaries? (sic)
    I guess I follow the rule that if I'm gonna try to poke fun at somebody, I ensure that I at least use, you know, proper English. (Last time I checked actuarial was still an adjective.) Otherwise I kind of look a little silly.
    So I'm gonna go ahead and pass on a response here.
  • CFRA Research
    Here's a sample. FREE via my Schwab account. Just log-in and choose "Research." I do look at this stuff, along with several other sources, before making a decision. It's as useful as a bunch of numbers squeezed together can be. Maybe you can make better use of everything they're wanting to show you.
    blob:https://client.schwab.com/a8707817-3c34-436a-9c98-ca6cd108c5bf
  • Evaluation and Ranking of Market Forecasters

    Stillers,
    u just said 'What investment analysis method(s) do you use and how's that all working out for you?"!!
    before "I'm not sure what most of the rest of your post has to do with the discussion"!!
    nevermind, we are in some ways, in closer galaxies.
    where can i get some of that technical analysis ensuring that 100-150 age for my drawdown?
    enquiring actuarials await.
  • Evaluation and Ranking of Market Forecasters
    Maybe some of us need to start with the basics and the myths...
    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/062215/debunking-8-myths-about-technical-analysis.asp
    Excerpt:
    Ultimately, it is up to each trader to explore technical analysis and determine if it is right for them. It doesn't guarantee instant profits or 100% accuracy, but for those who diligently practice the concepts, it does provide a realistic possibility of trading success.
  • Evaluation and Ranking of Market Forecasters
    "condescension unnecessary."
    Yeah, well, you did call T/A "the dismal astrology of technical analysis." I routinely support T/A so I take your comment as condescending. Perception is reality as they say.
    I'm not sure what most of the rest of your post has to do with the discussion, but here's my FWIW story that may show we ain't in galaxies very far away from each other.
    I hail from near dirt poor, that is, we did have real floors.
    I was a bean counter for 35+ years doing major audit work in federal programs.
    Been investing since 1980.Early on, our strategy was paint-by-numbers, driven by my investing mentor's guidance; investing exclusively in Magellan and then Low-Priced Stock when it was born, set the stage for a likely early retirement.
    We retired financially independent at age 56.
    In recent years our investment strategy has been driven by T/A.
    Our market exposure is ~40% Passive/~60% Active, and primarily OEFs.
    Our radar has been squarely on taxes since starting employment. We have not paid a dime in FIT/SIT since retiring in 2012 and plan to not pay a dime until RMDs in 2029.
    There are three stages to investing: Accumulation, Maintenance and Disbursement. We are still in the Accumulation phase at age 69 and don't project to to even sniff the Maintenance phase until age 90. Our liquid net worth is expected to increase through the end of our projections at age 100. So drawdowns are nothing we concern ourselves with.
    I have a coupla advanced, graduate level certifications in accounting and auditing.
    Also...
    We've been to a Super Bowl that our team came back to win in the last minute and a World Series that our team won in the bottom of the ninth of Game 7 against arguably the greatest reliever of all-time.
    Unfortunately, we've never stayed at a Holiday Inn Express but hope to one day.
  • Evaluation and Ranking of Market Forecasters
    stillers,
    we are probably in different galaxies, so will keep it 'what works' short.
    am in yr 6 of FIRE (financially independent, retire early) and well past wealth accumulation mode.
    my target was avg -3%/yr net worth drawdown, and have beat that by +5%.
    my priority is risk , my tool is asset allocation, and my radar is on taxes.
    i shifted from ~75% equity pre-retirement to ~25%, with the largest shift away from equity (40%->25%) after the 2024 election. this also included a internal shift to more intnl.
    have never held a mkt-cap index fund, and for the majority of my equity :
    growth : i have long allocated to GARP managers, mostly giroux and primecap.
    value : i mix active mostly via wellington, and systematic via avantis\dimensional.
    i have aside ~10% discretionary where i experiment with niche funds and individual stocks.
    it is primarily fundamental, but sometimes i have set order limits at yearly lows.
    this bucket has huge dispersion but net has been a wash.
    i would never buy stocks such as tesla nor djt (nor hundreds of others) no matter what technicals spout.
    finally, i have a math minor and graduate-level STEM degree , read mandelbrot's view during the GFC, keep track of academic trend-following, and have passed on technical trading since then. condescension unnecessary.
  • Evaluation and Ranking of Market Forecasters
    Does FD1k use T/A or just magic?
    You can read what I do on my page.
    I use big picture analysis with only 2 possible outcomes. I get a signal to stay in/out at 99+%.
    Then, the charts(simple T/A) + other indicators must verify it, and then I trade.
    The main idea is not to lose more than 3% from any last top because I have plenty. I own mostly bond OEFs. The performance must be better than 50/50. Since retirement in 2018, I easily beat it.
    I don't care to beat any index or anyone. I only care about my goals.
    I always sell too early; when I'm wrong, if my indicators improve, I'm back within days.
    When I'm right, I hardly lose and can be out from weeks to months (in 2022, I was out 9-10 months).
    My conclusions
    * T/A is an art, and you must practice it and create your own system.
    * I only use it on the extreme, to verify going from buy to sell. That mechanic helps me a lot.
    * Over many years, my T/A works pretty well with slow bond funds, not so much with stock funds because volatility creates uncertainty.
  • Timely T/A for Stock Investors
    As a follow up to a comment above about Katie S's statement,
    Katie Stockton has been managing TACK. I heard many of her opinions...meh.
    See it's 3 year TOTAL performance...TACK just 15.1+%...even PIMIX beat it with 17.4%...QLEIX made 86.4%.
    See the chart (https://schrts.co/QgpCSIrP).
    I also checked the Fear & Greed Index over the years, and it's far from accurate.
    Katie Stockton performance fund, TACK. No need to look further.
    image
    As usual, I'm staying on topic.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 5/1/25
    Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 5/1/25
    TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
    Rates up by +25 bps (1st increase since 12/2023)
    Restricted RC 5.50%, RA 5.25%
    Flexible RCP 4.75%, SRA 4.50%, IRA-101110+ 4.75%
    TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.250%).
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1967/thread
  • Timely T/A for Stock Investors
    As a follow up to a comment above about Katie S's statement, here's the quote. Correction, I posted she said this yesterday, she actually said it Monday:
    "Our market internals are supportive of a bigger rebound," Stockton told clients in a note on Monday. "Sentiment has recovered meaningfully per the Fear & Greed Index, which is back above 25% after becoming deeply oversold earlier this month."
    However, according to Stockton, a break above the S&P 500's 50-day moving average would likely be short-lived and ultimately give way to renewed weakness.
    "Both the SPX and Nasdaq-100 Index have room to initial resistance at their 50-day MAs, respectively 5625 and 19680, breakouts above which would likely foster additional momentum before the rally fails," she said.