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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Hey Scott!
    @hank: "Not exactly. I'll use the ATM card at 10 different banks where the limit is $500 each". That's kind of expensive isn' it ? With the average ATM fee @$4.35 it could cost you as much as $43.50 to withdraw $5000. Hank.........we need to talk !
    Regards,
    Ted
    Regards,
    Ted
  • two cheers, or more, for activity
    Hi Hank,
    Thank you for your excellent commentary on the Fidelity fund family study. It’s a very workman-like assessment of the Fidelity analysis. I especially liked the way in which you organized your review. It directs MFOers to issues that you considered important, and permits them to form their own judgments. Nice work!
    The two salient findings of the referenced study are not, in general, too surprising. Costs always matter, and selecting funds from the least expensive quartile should improve an individual investor’s success odds significantly. I am somewhat surprised by the fund family size finding since I harbored high hopes for the young, small lions in the industry. I understand the size advantage explanation offered by Fidelity, and I especially liked your Dodge-Cox example.
    Being an experienced fund investor, I’m forever suspicious of industry studies that, in the end, tout the researcher’s own best interests. In this instance, the study does seem to be evenhanded, although, as you mentioned, the special study period might be interpreted as some adroit data mining. I surely do not know if that’s the case, and am not interested in pursuing the matter.
    My disinterest in resolving any such issue is influenced by the annual availability of several fund family rating reviews. The reviews are done by informed, independent agencies and are comprehensive. Typically, these assessments cover the most recent year, and usually include composite year rankings, like for 5 and 10 year timeframes.
    One of my favorites is completed annually by Barron’s. Here is a Link that measures fund family 2014 performance:
    http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB51367578116875004693704580438203823401046
    EDIT: In checking the Link I do not get a full presentation of the article. You can do so by searching the web for "Barron's Dressing Up 2014". Sorry that the above address doesn't do the job.
    Note that at the top of this extensive article, you can access the 2014, the 5-year, and the 10-year rankings with a single click. Note also how the rankings change over time. Performance persistence is a constant challenge.
    Vanguard was a big winner in 2014, but did not top the longer period charts. The variability embedded in these charts are reminiscent of the Periodic Fund Category Tables often discussed on MFO. All of these presentations have a checkerboard-like character. Good luck at projecting next year’s winners.
    Fund managers are an overconfident cohort. When asked if other managers will outdistance their benchmarks, these guys properly estimate a just south of 50% forecast. When asked if they will outdistance the relevant market, these same guys answer in the affirmative about 80% of the time. I suppose you need that overconfidence to be in the mutual fund business.
    Whenever I think of overconfidence, I’m reminded of the Monty Python Black Knight scene in the Holy Grail movie. It’s always fun. Here is a Link to the scene that addresses the futility of overconfidence:

    Enjoy, and thank you once again. Some fund managers, with year-after-year of sub-benchmark records, are perfect Black Knights. In that instance, they bleed investor’s blood, not their own.
    Best Wishes.
  • Hey Scott!
    Not exactly. I'll use the ATM card at 10 different banks where the limit is $500 each. Thanks for asking. Have a good day. :)
  • Hey Scott!
    Nice play on words Ted :)
    Well ... off to the bank this morning to w/d $5000 for the day's groceries.
  • Fund Manager Focus: Michael Kass, Manager, Baron Emerging Markets Fund
    Alibaba stock, recently $87.53, has been on a steady slide since late last year, when it hit $119.15. Kass is resolute about his longer-term view of the company and the influence of its founder and chairman, Jack Ma. “This,” he says “is the new face of the emerging-market
    Only time will tell if Alibata will prove itself without all the initial hype.
  • Fund Manager Focus: Michael Kass, Manager, Baron Emerging Markets Fund
    FYI: When Baron Funds unveiled an emerging-market fund at the end of 2010, it seemed like a departure for a boutique firm best known for its intense focus on growing entrepreneurial companies.
    Baron Emerging Markets manager Michael Kass focuses on the rise of the emerging market entrepreneur. Photograph: Ken Schles for Barron’s
    Yet that’s exactly the premise behind the four-year-old, $1.6 billion Baron Emerging Markets (ticker: BEXFX). “The next stage of emerging-market growth is all about the rise of the entrepreneur,” says Michael Kass, whose all-cap fund is up 10.5% a year over the past three years, better than 97% of emerging-market funds. “I refer to it as EM 2.0.”
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://online.barrons.com/articles/betting-on-the-emerging-market-entrepreneur-1431743945#printMode
    M* Snapshot BEXFX: http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/BEXFX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot BEXFX: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/BEXFX?countrycode=US
    BEXFX Is Unranked In The (EM) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/diversified-emerging-mkts/baron-emerging-markets-fund/bexfx
  • Jason Zweig: Can You Use ETFs To Beat The Market ?
    FYI: When hiring people who call themselves strategists, be aware that some act more like tacticians instead.
    That is one lesson from several recent setbacks among ETF strategists, asset managers who specialize in picking exchange-traded funds—those popular investment baskets that mimic market benchmarks like the S&P 500-stock index or the Barclays U.S. Aggregate bond index.
    Until recently, ETF strategists have been sizzling hot. By March 2014, they had garnered $103 billion in assets, up from $44 billion at the end of 2011. But assets slid to $91 billion at year-end 2014 and likely dropped further in the first quarter as disappointed investors pulled money out, says Ling-Wei Hew, an analyst at Morningstar, the investment-research firm.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/05/15/can-you-use-etfs-to-beat-the-market/tab/print/
  • JOHCM International Select Fund to limit sales
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1516523/000119312515189005/d925959d497.htm
    JOHCM EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES FUND
    JOHCM GLOBAL EQUITY FUND
    JOHCM INTERNATIONAL SELECT FUND
    JOHCM INTERNATIONAL SMALL CAP EQUITY FUND
    JOHCM ASIA EX-JAPAN EQUITY FUND
    JOHCM EMERGING MARKETS SMALL MID CAP EQUITY FUND
    JOHCM US SMALL MID CAP EQUITY FUND
    Each a series of Advisers Investment Trust
    Supplement dated May 15, 2015
    to the Prospectus dated January 28, 2015
    Effective as of the close of business on July 15, 2015 (the “Closing Date”), the JOHCM International Select Fund (the “Fund”) will be publicly offered on a limited basis only. After the Closing Date, investors will not be eligible to purchase shares of the Fund, except as described below.
    The following groups will be permitted to continue to purchase Fund shares:
    1. Shareholders of record of the Fund as of the Closing Date are able to continue to purchase additional shares in their existing Fund accounts either directly through the Fund or through a financial intermediary and may continue to reinvest dividends or capital gains distributions from shares owned in the Fund;
    2. Group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b), 457 plans, and health savings account programs (and their successor, related and affiliated plans), which have the Fund available to participants on or before the Closing Date, may continue to open accounts for new participants in the Fund and purchase additional shares in existing participant accounts. New group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b) and 457 plans, and health savings account programs (and their successor, related and affiliated plans), may also establish new accounts with the Fund, provided the new plans have approved and selected the Fund as an investment option by the Closing Date and the plan has also been accepted for investment by the Fund by the Closing Date.
    3. Approved fee-based advisory programs may continue to utilize the Fund for new and existing program accounts. The program sponsors must be accepted for investment by the Fund by the Closing Date.
    4. Approved brokerage platforms where a Fund is currently included on the sponsor platform may continue to utilize the Fund for new and existing program accounts. The brokerage platforms must be accepted for continued investment by the Fund by the Closing Date.
    5. Existing independent wealth management (IWM) firms and bank trust companies that have a client investment in the Fund at the time of the Closing Date can continue to add new clients, purchase shares, and exchange into the Fund. The Fund will not be available to new IWM and bank trust companies that do not have a position in the Fund at the time of the Closing Date.
    6. Fund of mutual fund sponsors that have an investment in the Fund as of the Closing Date can continue to purchase shares of the Fund.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    7. Certain financial intermediaries with whom the Adviser has a relationship, provided that, in the judgment of JOHCM Funds, the proposed investment in the Fund would not adversely affect the Adviser’s ability to manage the Fund effectively.
    8. An institutional consulting firm that has previously directed client assets into the Fund may be allowed to recommend the Fund to its new and existing clients who may in turn purchase shares of the Fund, provided that, in the judgment of JOHCM Funds, the proposed investment in the Fund would not adversely affect the Adviser’s ability to manage the Fund effectively.
    9. Board of Trustees and persons affiliated with the Fund’s investment adviser and their immediate families would be able to purchase shares of the Fund and establish new positions.
    In general, the Fund will rely on a financial intermediary to prevent a new account from being opened within an omnibus account established at that financial intermediary if the account would not otherwise satisfy the conditions outlined above. The Fund’s ability to monitor new accounts that are opened through omnibus accounts or other nominee accounts is limited and the ability to limit a new account to those that meet the above criteria with respect to financial intermediaries may vary depending upon the capabilities of those financial intermediaries.
    Investors may be asked to verify that they meet one of the exceptions above prior to opening a new account in the Fund. The Fund may permit you to open a new account if the Fund reasonably believes that you are eligible. If a shareholder opens a new account in the Fund and is later determined to be ineligible for investment, the Fund reserves the right to redeem the shares at their original NAV. The Fund also may decline to permit you to open a new account if the Fund believes that doing so would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders, even if you would be eligible to open a new account under these exceptions.
    If all shares of the Fund in an existing account are redeemed, the shareholder’s account will be closed. Such former shareholders will not be able to buy additional shares of the Fund or reopen their account.
    The Fund reserves the right to make additional exceptions or otherwise modify the foregoing closure policy at any time.
    This Supplement and the Statutory Prospectus dated January 28, 2015 provide the information
    a prospective investor ought to know before investing and should be retained for future reference
  • Vanguard CEO: “We Want to Drive Costs Even Lower”
    FYI: We are not done on the cost side . . . We think we need to keep raising the bar on that.”
    So says Bill McNabb, CEO and Chairman of the Vanguard Group. The firm, managing over $3.1 trillion dollars in client monies, has long been known for its obsessive focus on keeping costs low
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/05/vanguard-ceo-we-want-to-drive-costs-even-lower/print/
  • A Look At How the Ultra-Wealthy Invest
    Hi Guys,
    It’s interesting that Scott referenced some recent Rothschild happenings. The Rothschild dynasty has been a major player in high powered European politics and finance for centuries. That dynasty continues today with yet another influential Rothschild.
    The Baron Rothschild that I believe contributed the 3-part investment portfolio was the 19th century British nobleman. He is usually credited with the sage investor advice to “buy when there’s blood in the streets.”
    He’s also the same Rothschild who made a stock market “killing” when he sent an agent to monitor the Waterloo battle in 1815. When it became clear that Napoleon would be defeated, the agent released homing pigeons with that message to alert Rothschild in London. Front running is a very ancient investor strategy. Some things never change.
    By the way, some folks believe that the famous “Blood” quote is truncated. Some suspect that the entire quote is “buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own”. Now that’s a hard man and a committed investor.
    This 19th century Rothschild also assembled an array of other pity, colorful investment quotes that demonstrate his wisdom.
    He said: “Buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of the trumpets”.
    He said: “I don’t know what the seven wonders of the world are, but I know the eighth, compound interest”. If true, he preceded Einstein by more than a century.
    Finally, one of my favorites, Nathan Rothschild advised: “It requires a great deal of boldness and a great deal of caution to make a fortune, and when you have it, you require ten times as much wit to keep it”. Even in yesteryear, the wise investor balanced the delicate risk/reward tradeoffs of boldness and caution.
    It’s great fun to romp through history, and there are many lessons to be learned.
    Best Wishes.
  • FARNX - What do we think about it now?
    @VintageFreak: I'd rather own IJH.
    Regards,
    Ted
    FARNX:
    YTD: 3.80%
    1YR. 8.95%
    ER: 1.30%
    IJH:
    YTD: 4.93%
    !YR. 12.37%
    ER: .12%
  • 4 Charts To Help Bond Investors Sleep Well
    Thanks Ted,
    More specifically this article refers to understanding the yield curve. Here's a quote from a recent article I link which I'll include here as well.
    Quote:
    "The problems with the economy and the stock market don't start with the first rate hike, but rather the last one — it is that last one that inverts the yield curve that bites and by then it is too late."
    MFO Link:
    mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/21043/6th-longest-us-economic-expansion-we-ve-had-since-the-1850s#latest
  • The Breakfast Briefing: U.S. Calendar Effect Suggests Stronger Stocks
    FYI: Someday U.S. stocks will bust out and stop trading sideways. The S&P 500, for its part, has repeatedly tested the 2120 area but moved back each time, most recently following Friday’s employment report.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/05/14/morning-moneybeat-calendar-effect-suggests-stronger-stocks/tab/print/
    Current Futures:
    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Why Buy A Large Cap Growth Fund For Retirement?
    FYI: The average large-cap growth mutual fund has lagged well behind its midcap and small-cap peers in the past 15 years. But top performing large-cap growth mutual funds have managed to stay ahead of the broad stock market during that span and several are doing so this year.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTkzMzcwODA=
    Enlarged Graphic:
    http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WebLVpent051315.jpg&docId=752343&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1120&caption=&id=752331
  • Controlling the Bouncing Ball
    Hi Johnchisum,
    Thank you for the return post. It's good to know I just might be doing some good. I hope you increase your portfolio's value each year using the asset allocation tool.
    There's an old Wall Street saying: " We can't direct the wInd, but we can adjust the sail". Some things are in our control, others are not.
    The investment equivalent of the saying is that we can't control market returns, but we can adjust our portfolio's asset allocation to capture much of its benefits.
    The studies I referenced claim that the allocation decision accounts for 90 to 95% of portfolio variability. Personally, that seems like a bit much, but the significance of the asset allocation decision is undeniable.
    The referenced website should prove to be very helpful.
    Good luck and Best Wishes.
  • BlackRock Event Driven Equity Fund to reopen to new investors (tentatively)
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1097077/000089109215004190/e64194_497.htm
    497 1 e64194_497.htm SUPPLEMENT
    BlackRock Event Driven Equity Fund
    Supplement dated May 13, 2015 to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information of BlackRock Event Driven Equity Fund (the “Fund”), dated May 8, 2015
    The Fund is currently closed to new investors. On or about July 27, 2015, the Fund expects to re-open to new investors.
    Shareholders should retain this Supplement for future reference.
    PRSAI-EDE-0515SUP