Hi Guys,
Generally, gaffs generate outcome gaps. We’re all painfully familiar with that investment world maxim.
We recognize that integrated over the entire marketplace, both individual and institutional investors must underperform market returns because of fees and cost leakage. From an individual investor perspective, a double whammy comes into play.
Not only does he absorb the return shortfalls (the first whammy) tied to underperforming active fund managers, he often contributes a second whammy himself by failing to even capture the already once attenuated returns earned by the funds he trades. He chooses to abandon ship with impeccably and predictably poor timing.
The typical investor is frequently labeled with faulty performance chasing. Morningstar’s Russell Kinnel has a likely alternate explanation: today’s investors are news chasing. We are captive to the 24/7 constant news cycle that prompts us to trade far too frequently, often with wealth compromising impacts. As investment timers, our composite track record just plain stinks. Sorry for that bluntness, but it is realistic.
Here’s a Link to a repeatedly updated “Mind the Gap” study by Morningstar’s Kinnel:
http://www.morningstar.com/advisor/t/88015528/mind-the-gap-2014.htmEarlier versions of “Mind the Gap” studies covered different timeframes and differing period lengths with basically the same dismal trends. Changing losing behavior is a challenge for some folks, sadly, portfolio poor folks in the end.
The specific numbers change; the basic takeaway does not. In almost all fund categories and in almost all timeframes, the average amateur investor does not come close to securing market-like returns. The underperformance penalties are statistically significant and annually erode a portfolio’s net profits to a fraction of their potential. Kinnel’s work illustrates that finding.
The Kinnel studies are based directly on a huge body of empirical fund data. By itself, that constitutes a compelling argument for core Index investing. Kinnel arrives at that same conclusion. Vanguard has added to that argument with countless Monte Carlo-based analytical simulations. Here is the Link to that comprehensive analyses:
https://pressroom.vanguard.com/content/nonindexed/Quantifying_the_impact_of_chasing_fund_performance_July_2014.pdfThe Vanguard study too is grounded in the existing mutual fund database that is coupled to a set of simple trading rules. Certainly the stipulated rules govern the results, but they are logical and are a reasonable set that an investor might well accept and implement. It is somewhat surprising that both the Kinnel empirical work and the Vanguard Monte Carlo analyses collate so closely. They buttress each other. DALBAR reports similar results.
A wise old adage is that “if you find a problem, find a solution”. Investing advice need not be complicated to promote better outcomes. Indexing a portion of your portfolio, ignoring the daily news cycle, and staying the long-term course is simplicity itself. If applied, these commonsense steps could improve the investment returns of many folks. Of course, MFOers are excluded being immune to investing gaffs and return gaps. If only that were true!
But as Warren Buffett cautioned, “Investing is simple-but it is not easy”. Nothing worthwhile ever is.
Your comments on this matter are both encouraged and welcomed.
Best Regards.