For all the years I listened to Brinker, and that amounts to around 15 years, he was very much the "stay the course" advisor. Perhaps his change of stance is reflective of a new investing environment we now face. Since 2008 it has been fast changing.

@davidrmoran yes, you're probably right, and that was silly of me to call out that particular fund. But my basic thought is that for years we've been in a long-term bull market for bonds due to falling interest rates, so any backtesting for the last few decades is going to make a bond heavy portfolio look very good, but I'm doubtful as to whether that can continue. Interest rates just can't drop much further, and they may start going up.
I'm sure the best funds will do fine, but a repeat of the 9% a year returns PIMIX has turned in the last 5 years is unlikely. Of course some people say stocks are overvalued too... Personally I don't see that, so I'd overweight POAGX in this two-fund portfolio, even if bee's backtesting shows that overweighting PIMIX was the way to go the past 5 years.
I don't have a cristal ball, just my two cents' worth.

I think our 10-year bond is affected much more by yields in Europe than by the pace of new home sales. The German 10-year closed at 0.95% today. And the spread of the US 2-year versus the German 2-year (which is negative) is the highest since 2007:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-26/treasury-two-year-notes-yield-most-versus-germany-since-2007.html

Old_Joe, you caught me on that one ! 5.56% down was end of July.
Derf

FYI — Long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell Monday after data showed the pace of new-home sales in July fell to a four-month low, and were once again approaching lows for the year.:
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-treasury-prices-generally-rise-2014-08-25/print

Cheer Funds 2014: As of today 8/22/14
Regards,
Ted
FBTCX: 17.97% YTD
PRHSX: 17.89% YTD
QQQ 13.99% YTD
PFF 12.27% YTD
SPY: 9.91% YTD
VWELX: 7.52% YTD
Average 13.25% YTD
Ouch Funds 2014
None

Hi Guys,
“Market timing is unproven.”
That quote was extracted from the FAQ section of The Decision Moose website. It is an accurate summary statement that reflects the controversy between academics and practitioners of that discipline.
I have no ponies in this horserace. So I will not personally handicap the merits of the “Market Timing with Decision Moose” methodology or its track record. I’ll defer to CXO Advisory Group for that task.
I have not done investment market timing strategies for over 2 decades, At one time, I did use methods outlined in the Edwards and Magee classic “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” book. I won some victories and I suffered some defeats. Overall, I suppose my outcomes were rather ho hum, and did demand a huge time commitment. I mostly shun market timing now, and feel much relieved without its pressures. It can be a task master.
Market Timing has a huge following and has an almost endless array of methods. There are more than 5,000 candidate Timing schemes. Some work for some time. The trick is to discover the appropriate technique at the appropriate time. No easy chore.
My favorite Timing website is operated by Thomas Bulkowski. I especially like his site because he summarizes methods and presents statistical data that helps to define the odds of success for many of these various procedures. Here is a Link to Bulkowski’s powerful and practical website:
http://thepatternsite.com/
The question will always be: How good are these momentum-based market Timing strategies?
William Dirlam’s Decision Moose has generated reasonable results, and respectable reviews from many quarters. But anecdotal statements are not sufficient. A more formal statistical review is warranted. CXO Advisory Group just completed just such an examination. Here is a Link to CXO’s research and findings:
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/2663/economic-indicators/the-decision-moose-asset-allocation-framework/
Please access the reference. As usual, CXO did a very honest, unbiased, workmanlike job.
My three major takeaways from the CXO study are:
(1) The Decision Moose performance has deteriorated over time. Change in effectiveness happens.
(2) A major factor in the perceived outperformance is coupled to a single Gold call made a long time ago. Tossing away that outlier greatly reduces the purported (costs were not included) excess returns of the method.
(3) Decision Moose contrasts its performance against the S&P 500 Index as a benchmark. That is not the best benchmark since the Decision Moose chooses between 9 fund/ETF categories. A 60/40 asset mix of these same categories might be a better measure of relative performance.
The Decision Moose also postulates an All In or All Out policy. Dirlam doesn’t encourage such an extreme commitment, and I doubt if any supporters follow such a concentrated positioning. The non-diversification distorts the scoring somewhat by acting as a result magnifier.
I hope this post is helpful when evaluating the benefits and shortcomings of the Decision Moose’s forecasts. The site seems to be operated by an honest advocate of momentum investing. All this assists the marketplace’s pricing discovery mechanisms.
Thanks for introducing me to the Decision Moose website.
Best Regards.

I'll have to listen to him again. I'm sure I can listen on the internet somewhere.

You can listen to the archives on ksfo.com
Choose Sunday from 1-4 pm. There is a 7 day archive of all the ksfo.com radio programs. He did talk about bonds today. Actually, you can skip 3-4 pm if you are mainly looking for his info on bonds, because 3-4 pm is an interview with a guest author

Bob Brinker is now recommending bond funds with shorter durations than the GNMA fund. The average duration is just a little over 1. His logic is that, in an improving economy, he would rather have credit risk than interest rate risk. He's actually going against the advice generally given by Vanguard (to stay the course in total bond market index) and Jason Zweig and I'm sure others. I like Brinker as well and would welcome the opportunity to dialogue his advice.

@Jim0445, yes, in posts to JohnChisum I went over this. He sold his Vanguard GNMA holding quite some time ago, because he is convinced interest rates will rise and any bond fund with a significant duration will do very poorly. Currently the Vanguard GNMA fund has a duration of 5.8 years. Brinker has an average duration of 1.1 years on his Income portfolio.
Yes, I welcome the opportunity to dialogue his advice with you too. He's definitely going against the advice to 'Stay the Course'.....he's investing in Fidelity's bank loan fund, OSTIX and DoubleLine Low Duration and MetroWest Low Duration. Taking a lot of credit risk. Those investments didn't work out well at all in 2008.......

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1566671/000119312514319875/d779073d497.htm
Excerpt:
"Supplement dated August 25, 2014 to the Prospectus for Class I (DBEGX) and Class N (DLEGX) shares of DoubleLine Equities Growth Fund (the “Fund”) dated July 1, 2014 (the “Prospectus”) and the Fund’s Statement of Additional Information dated July 1, 2014 (the “SAI”). This Supplement updates certain information contained in the above-dated Prospectus and SAI. Please review this important information carefully.
Effective October 1, 2014, the Fund’s Class N shares will be re-designated as Class A shares (the “Re-designation”). Accordingly, if you hold Class N shares of the Fund at the time of the Re-designation, those shares will become Class A shares of the Fund. There will be no change in net asset value per share of your shares of the Fund as a result of the Re-designation. In addition, as described in more detail below, the fees and expenses related to holding, purchasing, and selling Class A shares are not expected to differ from such Class N shares fees and expenses for holders of Class N shares of the Fund at the time of the Re-designation.
As of October 1, 2014, the following changes to the Fund’s Prospectus and SAI will be in effect:
1. Except for references to the Fund’s Class N shares specifically relating to a period prior to October 1, 2014, all references to the Fund’s Class N shares are replaced with references to Class A shares..."

@LLJB: Yes, Biotechs have had a nice rebound. IBB had a nice day, up 2.33% and 19.85% YTD.
Regards,
Ted

I backtested your two fund portfolio by creating three distinct portfolios using your two funds in differing percentages. The starting balance was $10,000.
Portfolio 1 - POAGX =20% & PIMIX =80%
Portfolio 2 - POAGX =40% & PIMIX =60% (your suggestion)
Portfolio 3 - POAGX =80% & PIMIX =20%
Using this portfolio tool I was able to compare these three portfolios (from 2008-2013). What I found interesting is that for all years except 2013 the 20/80 (portfolio one) provided the highest end of year balance.
Here's a small part of the results:

FYI: Earlier this year in late February and early March, the two groups that did best in 2013 -- Biotech and Internet -- threw hissy fits and went into their own bear markets. Below is a check-up on their chart patterns now that six months have passed since they last hit all-time highs.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/8/25/check-up-on-biotech-internet-groups.html?printerFriendly=true

FYI: Most years, the performances of the two indexes track each other fairly closely. However, since late March the Russell has drifted lower while the S&P 500 has moved higher. As a result, the Russell is down 4.2 percent for the year, while the S&P is up 4.1 percent, so small caps have some work to do if they are to outshine the big boys.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/columnists/will-deener/20140803-are-small-cap-stocks-waving-a-warning-flag.ece
As Of 8/22/14:
S&P 500 7.58% YTD
Russell 2000 0.50% YTD

Are ya wondering whether there is or is not any really silly stuff taking place from and with central banks, and continuing to attempt to prop up soft economic numbers in most places, globally???
In spite of what or who one reads about growth here and there; the central bankers are still worried and will; one way or another, continue to place more crutches of support, wherever they find a need.
I am sure Dan Fuss and many other superior bond managers are wringing their hands every day wondering when a crutch may bend too far and break.
I'm not really thrilled about the prospects of higher rates (for whatever reason) and the impact upon some bond funds; "BUT" equity investors should also remain alert, too; as the removal of easy money will affect this area, as well.
The below graph is for Euroland and the U.S. Look at the 10 year rates for Italy, Portugal and Spain. Ya, right ! Compare the current to one year ago.
current yields
A re-do, of a previous posted link; from May of 2010.....European Debt Crisis.....one of my all-time favorites, and still valid.
Our largest bond holdings continue to be LSBDX and PIMIX; and dedicated HY; for reason of economic softness in the under bellies of economies.
If nothing else, have fun with your investing time.
Catch

With hindsight it looks great!! I'm a big fan of POAGX and its my largest single position so I've been very happy with its performance in the last few years. The Primecap folks have a fantastic record with the Vanguard funds they sub-advise for as well as their own Odyssey funds. I'm not sure I'd invest in anything from PIMCO now, but it certainly would have worked out over the past 6.5 years.

MFLDX Down 5.56 ytd !!
Derf

40% PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth POAGX
60% PIMCO Income Instl PIMIX
Since 1/1/2008 ~12.5% annual return vs S&P ~7% annual return
2008 return -17% vs S&P -38% return
Beat S&P 5 out of 6 years 2008-2013, YTD about even
.55% expense ratio
POAGX holds 30% Large/Giant Cap, 30% Mid Cap, 40% Small/Micro Cap, 14% non-US
FWIW, POAGX is Morningstar 5 star Gold fund, PIMIX is Morningstar 5 star Silver fund

FYI: This fund company is trying to right the ship.
Regards,
Ted
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=662475

The Moose’s New Signal
The Moose has made a new call to EDV from ILF. By my math, ILF produced a positive return of about 5.4% for those that might have followed it.
http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html
http://decisionmoose.com/Moosistory.html
And, here is a news blurb form Bloomberg on emerging markets ...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-25/most-emerging-stocks-fall-as-samsung-drops-while-sinopec-gains.html
Have a grand day … and, most of all … I wish all … “Good Investing.”
Old_Skeet