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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Democrats reintroduce a financial transaction tax
    >> I admit I did not read the entire article
    Poor level of discourse. RTFA, and the below too.
    See if you might thoughtfully find some things about it that sound positive.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/transaction-tax-plan-brings-fresh-wall-street-battle-to-capitol-hill-2015-01-12
    +1 to MM and AJ
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Drop Along With Oil Prices
    Yep.
    Sold off quite a bit on this disappointing day, yet again...
    OXY...I picked up recently, but could not hold gains...had hoped that this would be more sturdy given its dividend yield. No luck. APA, HES, XOM all down heavy as well.
    SAFM...I picked up fairly recently, but could not hold gains. Massive shorts seem to be winning tug-of-war here.
    SCHN...I took a beating on this one...a stubborn holding for me. Probably one of the most hated stocks out there today...the earnings call last week was so antagonistic. An aggressive BAC ML analyst basically called into question the entire business model for this 100 year old company. With raw metals at record lows, why would anyone want to by scrap? Jeffries stepped up with a hold and targets $20, citing cost reduction initiatives, continued FCF, and nice dividend, but the stock almost broke below $17 today. No admittance that tha company is buying its stock. Believe it can go lower still. Sad to say.
    Did use downgrade by CS to pick up AIG, which has been off its recent high of $55. Added again to BAC...it too off recent high of $19...today, under $17.
    HCP, OAK, AA continue to run higher. AA crushed expectations.
    So, now just five equities: BAC, AA, HCP, OAK, and AIG.
    c
  • MFO Ratings Through 4th Quarter
    Chip's updated Search Tools with ratings data through December 2014.
    The update shows 470 Great Owl funds, or about 6 percent of all evaluated. Of these, about 100 are also Honor Roll funds, meaning they are top quintile performers for both risk adjusted and absolute returns.
    Some notables:
    Akre Focus Instl (AKRIX)
    AMG Managers Intermediate Duration Govt (MGIDX)
    Artisan International Value Investor (ARTKX)
    Guinness Atkinson Global Innovators (IWIRX)
    Hennessy Focus Investor (HFCSX)
    Janus Triton D (JANIX)
    Pear Tree Polaris Fgn Val Sm Cap Instl (QUSIX)
    PIMCO Foreign Bond (USD-Hedged) I (PFORX)
    PIMCO Intl StksPLUS AR Strat (UsD-Hg) A (PIPAX)
    PIMCO StocksPLUS Absolute Return Instl (PSPTX)
    PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Instl (PSLDX)
    PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth (POAGX)
    RiverPark Structural Alpha Institutional (RSAIX)
    Smead Value Investor (SMVLX)
    T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX)
    T. Rowe Price Diversified Sm Cap Growth (PRDSX)
    T. Rowe Price Global Technology (PRGTX)
    T. Rowe Price Instl Mid-Cap Equity Gr (PMEGX)
    T. Rowe Price Instl Small-Cap Stock (TRSSX)
    T. Rowe Price New Horizons (PRNHX)
    T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock (OTCFX)
    Tweedy Browne Global Value (TBGVX)
    Vanguard Strategic Small-Cap Equity Inv (VSTCX)
    Vanguard Struct Large-Cap Eq InstlPlus (VSLPX)
    Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv (VWINX)
    Vanguard Wellington Inv (VWELX)
    Vulcan Value Partners (VVPLX)
    Of the 1800 or so surviving funds that have been around 20 years, only about 30 are top quintile across all five evaluation periods (20, 10, 5, 3, and 1 year), yes even in 2014.
    Some of them are:
    American Century Equity Income Inv (TWEIX)
    AMG Managers Intermediate Duration Govt (MGIDX)
    Elfun Trusts (ELFNX)
    Franklin Mutual Global Discovery Z (MDISX)
    Meridian Growth Legacy (MERDX)
    PIMCO Foreign Bond (UsD-Hedged) I (PFORX)
    T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX)
    T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock (OTCFX)
    TCW Total Return Bond I (TGLMX)
    Tweedy Browne Global Value (TBGVX)
    Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv (VWINX)
    Vanguard Wellington Inv (VWELX)
    A few notable funds on our latest Three Alarm list...Calamos and Royce spending some time in the barrel:
    Aegis Value (AVALX)
    AMG Managers Brandywine Advs Mid Cap Gr (BWAFX)
    Artisan Small Cap Value Investor (ARTVX)
    Calamos Focus Growth A (CBCAX)
    Calamos Growth A (CVGRX)
    Calamos Opportunistic Value A (CVAAX)
    Calamos Total Return Bond A (CTRAX)
    Davis NY Venture A (NYVTX)
    Delafield Fund (DEFIX)
    Evermore Global Value A (EVGBX)
    FpA Capital (FPPTX)
    Greenspring (GRSPX)
    Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX)
    Janus Aspen Overseas Instl (JAIGX)
    LKCM Fixed-Income (LKFIX)
    Loomis Sayles International Bond A (LSIAX)
    MainStay Cornerstone Growth A (KLGAX)
    MainStay Growth Allocation A (MGXAX)
    Muhlenkamp (MUHLX)
    Old Westbury Fixed Income (OWFIX)
    Royce Global Value Svc (RIVFX)
    Royce Low Priced Stock Svc (RYLPX)
    Royce Micro-Cap Invmt (RYOTX)
    Royce Premier Invmt (RYPRX)
    Royce SMid-Cap Value Svc (RMVSX)
    Third Avenue International Value Instl (TAVIX)
    Thornburg International Value A (TGVAX)
    Valley Forge (VAFGX)
    Couple other interesting observations...
    Bretton Fund (BRTNX), which David last profiled in June 2013, is a Great Owl.
    As are three RiverPark funds, as seen below, all also profiled by David:
    image
    David Sherman's RiverPark Short Term High Yield Fund (RPHIX) actually holds distinction of having highest 3-year risk adjusted return of more than 8000 funds evaluated...twice the Sharpe and seven times higher Sortino and Martin than closest competitor. In a league all its own. A GO since eligible, but M* still only gives it one star for reasons discussed in last February's commentary, "Impact of Category On Fund Ratings".
    Good progress continues on our MFO Premium Search Tools site, currently in so-called beta or check-out phase. If you are interested in being a beta tester, please drop David a note. Still trying to figure out how we want to roll-out.
    If you see anything amiss in latest ratings update, will work to correct soonest. And, feedback always welcome.
    Enjoy.
    c
  • Democrats reintroduce a financial transaction tax
    It's an entire package including tax cuts for the middle class and tax incentives for corporations to raise worker pay: all the details here at the WaPo.
  • Return Of The Stockpickers
    @MFO Members: VWELX is 65% benchmarked to the S&P 500 and 35% to theBarclays U.S. Credit A or Better Bond Index thereafter.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Return Of The Stockpickers

    Correct Benchmarking performance:
    +/- Morningstar Moderate Target Risk Benchmark
    -0.16 0.30 0.53 2.70 0.38 5.03 3.54 2.61 1.43 1.71
    +/- Category (MA) Wellington
    -0.01+ 0.15 0.14 1.27 0.16 3.65 2.25 1.90 2.05 2.59
    Here Barrons: Wellington correct performance against Morningstar's moderate risk benchmark.....PLUS figures in EVERY time period
    need more go to Morningstar forget Barrons
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VWELX&region=usa&culture=en-US
  • Return Of The Stockpickers
    They are nuts or stupid or both....Wellington holds 35% bonds and a limited # of stocks for such big $ holdings...How could they outperform S&P in 2014?
    Every wonder why guys like me and (ibartman) question most financial reporting, the readers (public) would assume that Wellington was a under performing fund....BS
    Ridiculous stuff
  • Democrats reintroduce a financial transaction tax
    Plan would include a 0.1% tax on all stock transactions.
    I'm not keen on paying 10 basis points every time I rebalance or contribute funds. I don't feel like I'm a "Wall Street big shot". This tax would likely continue forever, and increase over time (as most taxes do).
    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000345938
  • Return Of The Stockpickers
    http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ON-BH910_MFQCov_G_20150109220517.jpg
    Check out link above. It refers to image/table from the Barron's article.
    Anyone other than me find the benchmarking of [Vanguard Wellington] or [Amer Funds Balanced] against the S&P 500 (!) peculiar?
  • Golly Gee....sure am tempted to throw more money at U.S. real estate funds
    Over the weekend I compiled a few funds that I hope will be complimentary to my equity holdings. Real Estate and commodities were on my list along with a variety of bond funds (LT / ST treasuries, TIPS, and Multi-sector funds). I also wanted to consider some equity sector funds and here I'm considering Utilities, Industrials, Japan, India, and Transportation to perform well this year.
    With this, here's are some choices that have outperformed in there respective category over 1,3 and 5 years. They have relatively low ERs and are often available with no transaction fees.
    RE - RRREX,
    Utilities - GASFX, TOLSX, GLFOX
    Commodities - SKSRX, PCRDX
    Income - PONDX, FAGIX
    TIPS - TIPSX
    Japan - HJPNX
    India - MINDX
    Industrials - FSRFX
    LT Treasuries - WHOSX
    ST Treasuries - FMEQX
  • Golly Gee....sure am tempted to throw more money at U.S. real estate funds
    'Course, 2013 wasn't great, but 2014 was and continues into 2015..........unless there will be another rotation of 1 year great, next year sell......... :)
    New money would be in the form of one big bite to the tune of at least 5% of our portfolio total.
    Have not run M*, but a best guess is that we have about 2% of the portfolio in R.E. from mixes within existing equity funds; and that we currently hold a direct 5% position in R.E. via FRIFX. The consideration to add to this area is for more exposure that is not bond related, as is, with about 50% of FRIFX.
    Are ya buying or selling the U.S. real estate area???
    M* real estate funds list
    Lastly, perhaps should just sell about 1/2 of the portfolio and place into a bond eft and wait to dive face first into an energy etf after the flooding is finished....... :)
    Thanks and take care,
    Catch
  • Just for the heck-of-it.....PTTRX vs JUCIX...a work in progress...
    @catch22, Exactly. There are many fine bond funds out there. I would not have invested in Gross's Total Bond because of the size to begin with, but the story of the millions leaving Pimco to follow Bill to Janus is confounding. They would have been better to stay at Pimco.
    In the fullness of time we will know the end story.
    Additional: there is a story over on WSJ Moneybeat that talks about this same issue. The author questions the response of the Janus chairman regarding where the money came from. Some alarm bells going off and unfortunately at a place where they have rung before. I would post the link but you have to be a subscriber. It is here. http://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-MBB-31685?ref=/blogs/moneybeat
  • Great Owls page not displaying
    Hi mcmarasco.
    I noticed that our spreadsheet had scrolled off-center and I corrected it. Hopefully, that was causing the issue you reported (thank you!).
    It comes up for me now...screenshot of top view:
    image
    You should also see one for Asset Allocation funds and another for Equity funds, just scroll down the page.
    You can download all three sheets in one Excel worksheet to your computer, if you prefer.
    Great Owl, Three Alarm, and Dashboard search tools have all be updated with fund performance through December 2014. The updated ratings should be uploaded to MultiSearch and Risk Profile search tools shortly.
    We will post an announcement when complete.
    c
  • Q&A With Bob Rodriguez, FPA Capital
    @ The New England Patroits will beat the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 2015. Remember, you heard it here first !
    Regards,
    Ted
  • TIPS, anyone?
    Hi @Joe
    We have been in and out of TIPs fund over the past 6 years. Our most common funds (one's readily available to us) have been TIP, FINPX, ACITX, BPRIX and LTPZ. Although our Fidelity brokerage accounts allow just about any TIPs area we would choose to use.
    This investment area wanders about, not unlike other bond and equity areas. We do use this area, from time to time, for "cash parking" versus a money market fund. If one desires more flexibility to sell these to move the monies to another area, an etf ( as with TIP ) might prove more valuable.
    Also note that not all active managed TIPs funds are equal. Some will hold a variety of short or longer term gov't. TIPs; as well as a mix of other investment grade corp. bonds within a fund or perhaps other Treasury issues. Although most TIPs total returns end with similar results over a long time frame.
    Also of note is that the TIPs area, not unlike other U.S. gov't. issues also represent an area during a flight to safety in the markets, to where safe haven monies will travel.
    Another circumstance, is that one may discover existing TIPs exposure within many bond funds. So, you may already have enough exposure; unless you choose to invest directly into this area, per your original question.
    If you have choices for TIPs within your investment account, I would suggest a review of LTPZ. This fund uses many tools to achieve returns, so this is not a plain jane TIPs fund and will also track long term bond pricing.
    For any TIPs funds, take a look at the overall longer term total returns. You will not win the race to short term results, but the returns shouldn't burn down your investment house either.
    As per the MFO disclaimer: "Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer."
    You could do much worse and holding TIPs depends upon your own philosophy, of course; and how such holdings fit into your own investment plan. Personally, we attempt to not invest less than 5% in a given area, considering that less than this percentage may not have any affect, good or bad; upon an overall portfolio. This doesn't mean that one can not dollar cost average into a position, but this is our own consideration and we generally take a 5% position in one big bite. We also have obtained this 5% position using more than one fund for the total value. The mix and match method. An example would be that we have held as much as 45% of our portfolio in high yield bond funds, using as many as 7 at one time to spread the manager(s) abilities/skills and take the average of results for the total return in this particular.
    M* TIPs, active managed Click columns to sort for return by year period, as the list is set by alpha fund name. Note that the variance between these TIPs funds have a return spread for YTD of 2.45% from the best to the worst. "Holy spread", as Robin would express to Batman.
    Lastly, most TIPs funds have been a happy area since the beginning of the year. But, this is also the case with many investment grade bond funds. This may not been the case in 3, 6 or 12 months. The markets are fickle, eh ??? Note: We are watching LTPZ, in particular; at this time.
    I'm out of coffee and thoughts for the time being.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Meh
    There's a lot to say about this topic, but I'll limit myself to trying to help explain Lewis's broad point with a reference that's purely about investment process. The guys who run PRBLX, one of the best U.S. stock funds there is, use an approach that combines "responsible" and return-oriented investing, as explained in this Barron's piece.
    Money quotes from the article:
    'Allen uses ESG ** "to identify risk that others may have missed." If a company demonstrates any bad behavior -- such as a health-care company that hawks its products in an unethical way -- Ahlsten often will nix it from the portfolio. The theory behind the high ground: Paying close attention to ESG issues beforehand means fewer unpleasant surprises in the morning paper and the company's stock price in the future.'
    'Call it socially responsible, but Allen says his strategy is just due diligence. "It's not just about feeling good about yourself in the morning," he says. "When we're looking at two similarly valued energy companies, and one has a good track record for worker safety and one doesn't, which do we invest in? That's a no-brainer.'
    ** ESG = environment, social, and governance characteristics.
  • Q&A With Bob Rodriguez, FPA Capital
    The link is not working. Try below. Bob is expecting fiscal conservatives to take over, low interest policy to disappear and stock crash which FPA is ready to pounce on.
    Another doom and gloomer. Aren't you scared Ted?
    http://news.investors.com/investing-mutual-funds/010215-732946-stock-mutual-fund-2015-outlook-by-fund-manager-bob-rodriguez.htm?p=full
  • Just for the heck-of-it.....PTTRX vs JUCIX...a work in progress...
    ---Jan 10, 2015
    PTTRX is at +1.5% for 3 months and +.97% YTD.
    JUCIX is at -.77% for 3 months and -.29% YTD.
    ---Jan 17, 2015
    PTTRX is at +.58% for current week and +1.56% YTD.
    JUCIX is at -.39% for current week and -.68% YTD.
    ---Jan 30, 2015
    PTTRX is at +2.62% YTD
    JUCIX is at +.28 YTD
    Should be a fun show going forward; and perhaps from some of those investors large and small amounts, who took their monies and ran elsewhere.....based upon ????? Did they really believe that the current day PIMCO was an all inclusive function of one man? I would bet my invested monies in PIMIX that Mr. G seldom had any input into the fund operation on a daily basis.
    In theory, then; we should be able to see and understand the true wisdom and/or skills of Mr. Gross, if he is the one who is pushing the investment area buttons for this new and reworked bond fund at Janus.
    Summary =: many here are much brighter than those whose job it is to have others money entrusted to them to manage. Sadly, a pretty scary thought.
    Bill Gross's new home fund
  • Real Asset Funds as Diversifier
    Howdy,
    Hank was spot on, as were the others. Real assets can be in the form of equities (i.e. natural resource funds), or the actual commodities themselves, also available in funds and ETFs. The former consists of stocks of companies involved in the commodity, the latter are options and futures and actual stockpiles of the commodity itself. These instruments are traded in different markets very often dancing to different drummers.
    Do they track each other? Sure, if the commodity is doing well, the companies involved with it will also do well, and vice versa. However, as an investor, you also need to understand that for various and sundry reasons, they can diverge considerably, particularly in the short run.
    Hand also mentioned the cyclicality [love that word, Hank] of the commodity markets. This is a pretty well established historical pattern. They run 12-15 years or so. This is due to their nature - you have to explore, discover, gather, process, deliver . . . oh, and have all your permits. It takes enormous time to bring new resources online and that results in the cyclicality.
    When you talk about diversification, in this case it's your portfolio you're considering. Why not consider the diversification of your wealth. About ten years back, I read a quote from the elder Baron Rothschild saying that to protect yourself financially, one should 1/3 of their wealth in securities, 1/3 in real estate, and 1/3 in rare art [define rare art as you wish, but it ain't Beanie Babies.]
    When I first read this, I ran my numbers and almost blew chunks. I was 90/8/2. I've worked pretty hard to get it to around 60/30/10 and am still working at it.
    Just some ramblings,
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono