FYI: The tremor Wall Street felt last Tuesday was caused by a letter—the annual epistle from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink to CEOs of companies in which the world’s biggest institutional investor owns shares.
To paraphrase an old EF Hutton TV ad, when BlackRock talks, people listen. Behind Fink is more than $6 trillion in global assets. That’s equal to 20% of the total U.S. market value, as measured by the Russell 3000 Index.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.cetusnews.com/business/Did-BlackRock’s-Larry-Fink-Go-Too-Far-.SJ1c6UgBG.html

Hello.
This is Old_Skeet’s weekly barometer report for the weekending January 19, 2018.
Last week I reported that the 500 Index was extermely overbought with a barometer reading of 128. This week the reading is found to be the same at 128 and, with this, the Index remains extremely overbought as scored by the metrics found in the barometer. If the reading should drop much lower it will be off the scale. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading.
For the week short interest for SPY is found to be 1.8 days to cover.
In review of the 500 Index compass the lead pack remains XLE (energy), XLF (financials) & XLY (consumer discretionary). Within the lead pack my spiff hound remains XLY and has for sometime as the consumer continues to spend. The bogey hound for this compass is EQL.
In review of the global compass the lead pack consists of GSP (commodities), EEM (emerging markets) & EWJ (Japan). Last week EEM had pulled back a bit but has now regained its momentum and edges out VTI (domestic stocks) for third place. Within the lead pack my spiff hound remains GSP and has for sometime as good demand for commodities continues. The bogey hound for this compass is VT.
This investment strategy was derived from a betting strategy I used years back at the dog track. The betting strategy was that I’d bet three dogs to either win, place or show during the early to mid races. This strategy provided a number of ways to have a dog (or dogs) be in the money. And, for me, this resulted in some good winnings as I had a prety good system that aided me in picking some good opportunity dogs for a wager.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
I wish all … “Good Investing.”
Old_Skeet

Here's a four page primer from Vanguard on the MMF rules, including background on why something like these rules is needed. It's dated 2014, before the rules became effective (late 2016).
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/VGMMR.pdf
The final paragraph begins: "We believe that these changes, along with the safeguards implemented in 2010, constitute a strong response to concerns that institutional money market funds may pose a risk to the financial system. While the majority of Vanguard money market fund shareholders won’t be affected by the new rules, some institutional
clients will be."
Remember that only institutional prime and muni MMFs float. Yours and mine don't.

“Last week I was appalled (though not totally surprised) to see a commentator describe 2018 as likely to be “a stock picker’s year.”
A great many cliches get tossed around in investment land. My favorite is the time I phoned a rep at Strong Funds to inquire why my fund had suddenly started losing money. The answer? “Your fund manager has been positioning himself.”
And a great (possibly even thought-provoking) line attributed to Buffett: "Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway."

VFINX or pretty much any other S&P 500 index fund, no load, 0.14% ER, 1.69% yield. I just don't see any reason for me to own this fund. There are many other dividend-centric funds out there that give you better bang for your buck with the same degree of risk.

2017 was quite a good year. My 2 core funds, my anchors, are still PRWCX and MAPOX. The first is about double the size of the second. Today, I sliced a sliver off PRDSX and added that sliver to PRIDX. The trade will go through on Monday. PRDSX is 6.14% of portf. and PRIDX is 7.71%. I still have just 11% of portf. in foreign stuff. As for bonds, I'm 15% in PREMX and 9% in PRSNX--- STILL. I have not pulled the trigger on PRSNX yet. (Thought I might switch into TUHYX or RPIHX.)

So let me see. a 5.75% load, a 0.9% ER and a yield of 1.08% No thanks, I think I'll pass.

FYI: The House Financial Services Committee has advanced a bill that would eliminate some of the strictures placed on the $2.8 trillion money market mutual fund industry in the wake of the financial crisis.
The legislation, which was opposed by Fidelity Investments, Vanguard Group., BlackRock Inc. and other major asset managers, would repeal a 2014 requirement that the riskiest funds allow their share prices to float, rather than maintain a stable $1 value. The panel’s action clears the way for a House vote on the measure.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-18/house-panel-backs-bill-to-scrap-floating-prices-for-money-funds

FYI: Don Taylor at the Franklin Rising Dividends Fund disregards companies’ current dividend yields when selecting stocks. Instead he focuses on the strength of their underlying businesses.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/four-stock-picks-from-a-money-manager-focused-on-dividend-growth-for-over-two-decades-2018-01-18/print
M* Snapshot FRDPX:
http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/frdpx/quote.html
Lipper Snapshot FRDPX:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/frdpx
FRDPX Is Ranked #93 In The (LCB) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-blend/franklin-rising-dividends-fund/frdpx

FYI: Although I don’t spend a ton of time watching the financial news, I see more than enough of the misinformation that too many people seem to regard as factual.
Last week I was appalled (though not totally surprised) to see a commentator describe 2018 as likely to be “a stock picker’s year.”
This is the stupidest sales pitch for active management that I know. And I don’t think “stupid” is too strong a word.
The idea seemed to be that there’s something special about this coming year that will give active managers an advantage over index funds.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-stock-picking-is-still-a-losers-game-2018-01-17/print

BrianW no disrespect taken; you are 100% accurate. I chose FMIJX for a reason several years ago and that reason has not changed, nor have my goals or needs.
Thank you for your perspective and wise words!! Matt

+1... what JoJo said.
I personally think we all at some point try to over think our investments or lose faith in an investing philosophy that made perfect sense for a while. Human nature I guess. FMIJX may very well under-perform it's peers in 2018. I still believe the management strategy fits what I want in my portfolio and remains a good choice over the cycle, so to answer your initial question, I'm not losing confidence. I found trying to eek out returns by jumping to or adding on "better performing funds" at the time just doesn't work for me.
Kind of what you said in another post,

My "timing" is atrocious, almost never benefits me.

Very valid points made by all. Maybe "hedge" was the wrong term and misused as BrianW points out.
I almost feel like adding to FMIJX now or waiting for it to pull-back further, could be trying to catch a "falling knife"; i'm just not sure and maybe way off.
NO DOUBT 13 months does not a trend make. But if significant under-performance continues for the next year or two and I have not, at least, consider another alternative, am i not doing myself a disservice? I'm not divesting from FMIJX, just reducing it from low-to-mid double-digits to just over 9%. I don't believe that's unreasonable, maybe i'm wrong though.
As BriansW says FOMO is maybe what is motivating me to branch out. The category is doing very well, but what will happen when the category goes south? Is FMIJX going to be the superhero as in the past? There are concerns as have been previously pointed out, asset bloat, weaker$, etc.
Lastly, I'm not saying 15.5% absolute return is bad; I would take it EVERY YEAR, but we all know that is a pipe dream. I guess my thoughts are if FMIJX continues to SIGNIFICANTLY under-perform the category, is it not worth a look-see and try to enhance performance while the getting is good?
Please let me know if I am off-base and/or missing the point! Thx!!!!

FMIJX returned 15.5% in 2017. I'll take that every single time, thank you!
Know what you own and why you own it. FMIJX is exactly where one would expect it to be. If you are even looking at 2018 performance--which is to say around 12 trading days so far--you are better off indexing.

'mcmarasco', regarding hedging please remember that had you been invested in a Growth fund you would likely have to re-balance funds out, not in. Meaning you would likely add to the FMI fund, not reduce. 2018 may be another banner year, but are you making the classic mistake of buying high when you should allow FMI to pull back?

PRESSmUP thank you for the read. They appear to be very pessimistic and cautious near-term which is ok, it's their job to do what they feel is best for the L-T, i get that.
I just hope that the SIGNIFICANT under-performance does not continue thru 2018 (and beyond). As you mentioned, the previous 3 years were outstanding, a reversal of that performance (i.e. 2017) would make that moot and FMIJX/FMIYX just another fund.
I do not think that will happen, but I am " hedging" and have reduced my investment to just over 9% and as slick mentioned (thx), I am dipping my toe into a growth oriented International fund.
Thanks everyone for your comments, please continue the conversation!!! Matt

Morgan Stanley the latest, saying that emerging equities may see a repeat of the year 2000, which began well and ended with a 32 percent drop.

I hope we do see a repeat of it. Because after that, from 2001-2007, EM returned >20%/year.

Appreciate the comments and insights! Thx!!
It's sometimes hard to accept SIGNIFICANT under performance. The 98th percentile in 2017 and early 2018 does not make a trend, but should it not raise "some" concern going forward???
Does it not warrant monitoring or am i being a little short-sighted and impatient?

Yes, they trailed badly in 2017, but this was after a relative performance of 2nd, 8th and 1st in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively. As Ben noted, their analysis of the ECB's actions are cautionary. I have sufficient irons in the fire to accept their caution at present. Attached is their most recent report...pls see starting on page 25.
http://www.fiduciarymgt.com/funds/shrpt/ann_shrpt_093017.pdf

Appreciate the comments and insights! Thx!!
It's sometimes hard to accept SIGNIFICANT under performance. The 98th percentile in 2017 and early 2018 does not make a trend, but should it not raise "some" concern going forward???
Does it not warrant monitoring or am i being a little short-sighted and impatient?

As with VMNFX, FMIJX is currency hedged. This has made a big difference in the past few years, as the dollar has gone from soaring in 2016 to diving in 2017.
If what you want is a smoother ride (i.e. one where currency is taken out of the equation), these were and are fine funds. If you want full exposure including currency volatility, buy something else.
Here's a chart showing these two funds against the foreign large blend average. While the two funds occasionally diverge (as would be expected, with one foreign one global), you can see how they take off relative to foreign large blend in 2016, and then foreign large blend nearly catches up in the subsequent year.
Morningstar comparison chart.