Man, 40% over fair value? For the S&P 500 TR?
Not sure what historical time frame you are picking. Maybe the '60-70s? The lost decade of the '00s?
Another 40% downward correction would certainly be brutal for those of us remaining long.

If you have access to load funds but don't have to pay a load, check out OSMYX, Oppenheimer's offering. Can be volatile, but strong returns. I bought i towards the end of 2013. New manager, but strong team behind him and the fund is 15 years +

Cman usually offers insightful comments, but he's become a bit opaque for me this time.

If you read all my comments at length in the earlier thread that explains the issue in a lot of detail, you might find it less opaque. :-)
mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/38948/#Comment_38948
As @JohnChisum puts it above, there is a lot of misunderstanding and mischaracterization about HFT and its role. For example, HFT traders also put money at risk, just like Market Makers and don't win every trade. But they are profitable over the long run which is why they do it, or why investment banking exists or any commerce exists. But you wouldnt know that from reading popular press or demagouging authors. Even people like John Bogle have highlighted the good that HFT has done and you see it every time you do a trade with tight penny spreads or get commission free trades. But it is easier to demonize what one doesn't understand.
Not unlike the complex issues behind gun control or GMO foods which are also not amenable to simple good/bad judgments although a lot of people think it obvious on both sides of that issue. We saw it more recently in the Bitcoin news.

Charting BTTRX (Zero Coupon LT Treasuries) against VTSMX (Total Stock Market Index) seems to paint an interesting 5 year picture. Twice VTSMX and BTTRX almost touched before VTSMX (US Equities) moved higher. This happened just after they become quite separated which seems like where we are right now. If this were to repeat itself for a third time the total US market index would appear to retreat another 4 - 6% while BTTRX would advance about 4-6%. Seems like an appropriate time to reallocate profits from your US equity holdings and place these profits into your favorite fix income vehicle or maybe other parts of the portfolio. Other parts of my portfolio don't seem as correlated to US Equity Market. Sectors such as Latin America, Frontier Markets, Real Estate, and Utilities are performing well YTD.

Morningstar's fair value chart showed the market to be slightly overvalued in 2007, right before the crash. As I recall, it showed more overvaluation in 1999 but not crazily so. It would test out poorly as a timing tool for the market- not that anyone should use it for such- is inapplicable to funds and useless in the valuation of individual stocks.
I define FMV as the market level where stocks are set to return historical average returns for the next decade. By my calculations, that level is over 40% below where we are today. Many, many thanks to Mr. Bernanke for the huge run up. These last couple of years have been nothing but PE multiple expansion.
I am not in cash waiting for another bust. I wont play that game. I have nearly 40% equity exposure to value stocks in some accounts. But that is as far as I want to push the envelope here.
For the record I became defensive in 2005. I missed some of the gains in 2006-7, but had a field day in 2008 and 2009. I may be "early" once again but naturally, I am very protective of those gains.
No one needs to pay a whit of attention to what I say here. It's just my view. Everyone should do their own research and draw their own conclusions.
Have a good weekend.

Don't know the fund, so no specific opinion, but I'd suggest looking around for possible replacements in the moderate allocation category (since that's what RNCOX is, not a stock fund comparable to the S&P 500) and comparing return:risk data. That E.R. is awful high for a standard MA fund, if that's what it is ... more like what you'd expect from an alt fund (long-short etc.).

@STB65: Is RNCOX worth 2.22%? No !
Regards,
Ted

During the past few days I did a little buying “around the edges” in low p/e ratio stock mutual funds as I feel they hold mostly assets that are currently out of favor. Time will tell if this was prudent. In the past I have found, at times, this has been a good strategy.
In following the market and a check of some of my references are now showing the markets in general are close to fair value while some parts of it remain over bought. I have linked Moringstar’s Market Fair Value graph below that reflects this. You can check the different sectors and see which ones have good value and the ones that are being reported as over valued.
http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx
In checking the WSJ … P/E’s & Yields on Major Indexes … is reporting that the S&P 500 Index is now selling on a Trailing P/E Ratio of 17.61 and on Forward Estimates of 15.44. Many say that a good P/E Ratio range for S&P 500 stocks to trade is 14 to 16. However, notice that stocks found in the Russell 2000 are selling at a Trailing P/E Ratio of 102.19.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=wsj_mdc_additional_ustocks
Perhaps this, in part, explains the sell off and a rotation towards value stock funds. I have linked below the Lipper Indexes that reflects value is currently fairing better than growth stock funds ... and, bond funds are leading most stock funds.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-lipperindx.html?mod=topnav_2_3023
In addition, I have linked a WSJ article that recaps this past week.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304058204579495221187828010?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304058204579495221187828010.html
My well diversified portfolio seems to be performing well as it leads my benchmark the Lipper Balanced Index. For the week the Index was down -1.36% while I was down -1.15%. Year-to-date the Index is up 0.27% while I am up 1.08%. My three best performing sleeves for the week were my income sleeve which was up 0.02% followed by my hybrid income sleeve which was down -0.41% and was followed by my global hybrid growth & income sleeve which was down -0.95%.
Since we have just started the reporting of corporate earnings it remains a big question as to how the markets will fair during the coming weeks. Many analyst lowered their expectations during the past few weeks so it should not be too difficult for reporting companies to beat these lowered estimates. And, with this the stock market party might just continue for a while longer.
Have a good weekend … and, I wish all “Good Investing.”
Old_Skeet

According to M*, RNCOX does not exceed the S&P by it's ER over the last 1 and 3 years.
Is it time to abandon this previously recommended "Core Fund?"
I've sold off 2/3 over the past 2 years. Is it time to abandon the remaining third?

Is the S & P the fund's benchmark? I'm guessing no.

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://www.etf.com/sections/blog/21785-destroying-smart-beta-ii-ground-rules-.html?showall=&fullart=1&start=2

Yeah, OTCRX seems to be negatively correlated to the market, an interesting play for sure (looking at the predecessor hedge fund returns though, makes me a tad nervous...yes I have access to the monthly return stream through my job).
As for WMCNX, I really like Mr Singer, he's a bright guy...plus I like their use of currencies and their low correlation to equities. I considered PASDX and PAUDX, but I'm not sold on Arnott & not a fan of the large size of the funds. WMCNX has $500 million, still small enough to make decent size bets & not suffer for it.

@bee: Try this on for size, one of the all time top fund managers
Regards,
Tedhttp://wealthtrack.com/special-series/great-investors-series/richard-freeman-great-investor-exclusive/
Fidelity Magellan
Vanguard Wellesley
Vanguard Morgan Growth
Vanguard Windsor Windsor II (29)
Vanguard Explorer
Vanguard 500 Stock Index Fund
There are more

Looking to form a list of mutual fund managers with at least 30 years of fund management experience and the present funds they manage.
On my list so far:
William Browne, of Tweedy Browne Value - TWEBX, TBGVX
Dan Fuss, Lommis Sayles and Managers - MGFIX, LSBRX
William Danoff, Fidelity Contrafund - FCNTX
Donald Yacktman, Yacktman Service Fund - YACKX, YAFFX
Larry Puglia, T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund - TRBCX
Ken Heebner CGM Focus - CGMFX, CGMRX, LOMMX
Charles Akre - AKREX
Dave Ellison Hennessey Funds - HLFNX
Charles Royce - PENNX
Jerry Palmieri - FKGRX
Mutual Funds that have been around for more than 30 years:
ING Corporate Leaders (LEXCX) 1936
MFS Massachusetts Investors Fund (MITTX) 1924
Putnam Investors Fund (PINVX) 1925
Pioneer Fund (PIODX) 1928
Century Shares Fund (CENSX) 1928
Vanguard Wellington Fund (VWELX) 1929
CGM Mutual Fund (LOMMX) 1929
Seligman Common Stock Fund (SCSFX) 1930
Fidelity Fund (FFIDX) 1930
Dodge & Cox Balance Fund (DODBX) 1931
The Investment Company of America (AIVSX) 1934
If you have any additions I would appreciate your list...thanks

FYi;
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-end-with-sizable-losses-nasdaq-under-4000-2014-04-11/print?guid=8A109DEC-CE5F-4AEB-82B5-C6182355F958
Major Stock Indexes: http://markets.wsj.com/us

Thanks fa..."debit balances within margin accounts".
here's FINRA's statistics:
finra.org/Investors/SmartInvesting/AdvancedInvesting/MarginInformation/p005923

all good, catch, glad to hear you're continuing with your proven movements. i don't do momentum or even slow momentum investing, but staying diversified has helped a lot. also, as i get older and wiser (or so i hope), daily noise doesn't affect me much. finally, being still employed and contributing fresh $$ to investment accounts each year is the most helpful. best to you and yours. fa

@fundalarm
Hi,
Our house is again playing more in bondland; ....so, far; so good. Equity down to 15% as of the end of February. Two largest equity are currently PRHSX and VSCPX and the equity mixes among FAGIX and LSBDX, in general; with a touch of equity inside of FRIFX.
Hoping all is well with you and yours.
Take care,
Catch

@fundalarm
Hi,
Our house is again playing more in bondland; ....so, far; so good. Equity down to 15% as of the end of February. Two largest equity are currently PRHSX and VSCPX and the equity mixes among FAGIX and LSBDX, in general; with a touch of equity inside of FRIFX.
Hoping all is well with you and yours.
Take care,
Catch

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/waggoner/2014/04/10/bank-stocks-good-bet-for-recovery/7558865/

Nice chart bee!

@mona, @johnchisum it is better to follow trends such as
How technology hurts health providers
for investing purposes than be distracted by political ideology colored data (on either side of spectrum).
The changes mentioned in that article above are real and powerful and much more relevant in the market place. I already see significant advertising locally here for clinics inside CVS.
The release of payment data from Medicare payments is significantly going to change how providers and drugs see the money because of public backlash on the use of Medicare funds - a bad sign for biotechs with high priced drugs that were flying under the radar until now and making large profits.

The 1979 AMA lawsuit which let AMA hide Medicare payments to protect doctors "privacy" was just outrageous. Thanks to the WSJ reporters and lawyers for pressing a lawsuit for public release that caused a sane judge to throw out overly broad ruling. Unfortunately, most of the WSJ comments are from far-right wing nuts who believe that taxpayers are just jealous of the hard-working 1%. I'm so glad I cancelled my sub years ago. AMA already put out statement that people are taking figures out of context. Hiding data for last 35 years is not bad enough, now they are calling us stupid. Yeah, none of us can understand causal probability, correlation theory.
I don't think the $80,000 Hep C 12 week treatment was out of sight, there were Congressional hearing. The pill treatment has generally far fewer harsh side effects, so
it is definitely worth it, well as long as someone else pays for it. Otherwise, could try injections and see how bad they are.