FPA Funds
2016 Year-End Distribution Estimates
From: FPA Funds – Mutual Fund Operations
http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/tax-and-dividend-info/year-end-distribution-estimates-2016.pdf?sfvrsn=2

Thanks for the input. Both Scott Burns and Merriman have shown splitting up the 60% equity side into US Large, US small, Reits, International and Emerging Mkts will outperform the CRSP US Total Mkt Index over time (VBIAX equity side of 60/40). My data shows this portfolio 60/40 will produce 9.32% CAGR since 2002 while VBIAX had 7.62%. That would compound greatly over time. Max drawdown was 4 percentage points higher than VBIAX and beta appeared to be 15% higher. So.....its a matter of personal choice I guess but not a bad option. Not sure which way I will go. Simplicity with VBIAX costs you a little. VBIAX made changes to their benchmark index equity side that has improved their performance around 2006. AOR looks good with limited track record but it is outperforming near term but needs a big down market to properly test it. Put AOR on watch list. This might be in the vein of what K O'Reilly is doing.

The same person also said he did not think Brexit would happen when asked in Q & A of his webcast. So this time it could be lucky side of a coin toss. And once you are right, it is not diificult to find why you are right. Also don't forget he said he sold all his equity holding in a 2011 webcast call. He never said if he did buy back or not. In forum like this MFO, readers are supposed to be more rational and objective. But it is amazing to see some topic still look like one side only story.

Good morning,
It is for certain my small/mid cap sleeve found in the growth area of my portfolio has been the bread winner thus far this year with a year-to-date return of better than 25%. My second best performing sleeve is my domestic equity sleeve found in the growth & income area with a year-to-date return of 10.1% and is followed by my domestic hybrid sleeve which is also a member of the growth & income area with a return of 9.6%. Overall, my investment return for the portfolio as a whole, according to Morningstar's Portfolio Manager, is 8.0% which betters the year-to-date return of the Lipper Balanced Index at 6.3%. Thus far, my better performing sleeves have more than offset my laggards.
As of my last Morningstar Instant Xray analysis (11/25/2016) my asset allocation bubbled at 20% cash, 25% bonds, 33% domestic stocks, 17% foreign stocks and 5% other. This is a little different from my last report of equities being a total of 52%. Seems, my hybrid funds which make up about 40% of my portfolio must have made some asset adjustments for this equity allocation to change. I find it interesting to follow their changing asset movements and how these changes effect my portfolio's asset allocation. I believe, some of my hybrid type funds help keep me positioned in the more faster moving market currents as their investment spectrum encompasses a wide range and variety of assets.
Since, December will soon be here, in only a few days, I don't plan to do any buying until the first part of the new year, if then. During December, I'll collect most of my fund distributions and build cash. I'm not certain what will transpire should the Fed's raise interest rates in December, or January, and it's resulting effects on equities. I do believe it certain that bond prices, for the most part, will continue to adjust downward as interest rates rise. It will be interesting to see what shakes out with the fast money crowd. Since, I am well diverisfied I am most likely to benefit from the fast money crowd's forever changing positioning. I am thinking of adding to my bank loan fund in the near term along with some select stock funds ... but, looking to see how December goes. Looking out, as interest rates rise and when I can get a CD yield in the 2.5% range I'll start to rebuild my CD ladder ... but, CD rates will have to become higher than the average total return I have achieved, thus far, with my short term and limited term bond funds.
To quote a strategy found in baseball ... I am not looking to hit the long ball just play short ball and advance the runners. And, if the long ball should come, perhaps it will score some runners just as the outsized returns of my small/mid cap sleeve, in essence, did.
I hope all had a great Thanksiving ... and, I wish all Happy Holidays as December arrives along with continued "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
Perhaps nowhere else in financial markets is speculation on the ultimate success of Trompononics more rampant than in shares of small U.S. stocks.
Small company shares on Friday notch their longest winning streak in 20 years on a shortened Black Friday trading session. The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4% in in the shortened session to book its 15th advance in row. This streak ties a run last seen in February 1996. The longest ever streak, 21, was hit back in 1988.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=Unsinkable+Small+Caps:+Russell+2000′s+Winning+Streak+Longest+in+20+Years+wsj

Thanks for the link, PRESSmUP. @golub1, why not just raise some cash on your own? I find it hard to believe that most of these cash-heavy guys are really brilliant enough to use that cash at just the right the time, again and again. If they were, they wouldn't be running OEMs for relative pennies compared to what the hedgies earn. Even the market timers with the best long-term records, like FPACX, have barely topped a simple 60/40 index fund like VBINX -- what happens when they finally get a big call wrong? Or when current management retires?
Better, I think, to just keep 20 or 40 or 60% cash or short-term Treasuries or whatever makes you comfortable, then rebalance every quarter or year to keep that number in line. There are clearly a few guys out there (though not many) who know how to pick a slightly higher proportion of good stocks than bad, but market timing is far harder.
But I fear I've opened up a philosophical discussion here...

To access the January 2014 article go to the Home page, go to the right, find Issues: long scroll page, select January 2014 and then page down to Voices from the bottom of the well

Dry Powder Gang
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2016/05/

More Optimism or " a sense of relief that the election was finally over"

The final index of consumer sentiment for November jumped to 93.8 from a preliminary reading of 91.6, according to a report released on Wednesday.
This report took on added significance because it showed results of the first postelection survey.
"The initial reaction of consumers to Trump's victory was to express greater optimism about their personal finances as well as improved prospects for the national economy," said Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist.
Curtin said the survey showed that the improved optimism was widespread — across all income and age subgroups across the country. However, it may have been exaggerated by a sense of relief that the election was finally over he said.
http://www.businessinsider.com/umich-consumer-confidence-november-23-2016-2016-11
Final Results for November 2016
2016 Y-Y vs 2015 % Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 93.8 +2.7%
Current Economic Conditions 107.3 +2.9%
Index of Consumer Expectations 85.2 +2.8%
...and it was perhaps exaggerated by what most considered a surprising victory as well as by a widespread sense of relief that the election had finally ended. To be sure, no surge in economic expectations can long be sustained without actual improvements in economic conditions. Presidential honeymoons represent a period in which the promise of gains holds sway over actual economic conditions.
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
Image source:
Consumer confidence rose more than previously reported to a six-month high in November, showing Americans became more optimistic about their finances and the economy after Donald Trump won the presidential election.
by Patricia Laya Bloomberg News
November 23, 2016 — 9:00 AM CST
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-jumps-after-trump-election-victory

FYI: he post-election surge in individual investor optimism continued this week as AAII Bullish Sentiment increased from 46.7% up to 49.9%. So after finally breaking above 40% for the first time in 54 weeks last week, now it is testing 50%! This week’s increase in bullish sentiment is the highest weekly reading since January 2015 and the largest three-week increase (26.25 percentage points) in over six years. Think about it this way — in the last three weeks, bullish sentiment has more than doubled!
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bull-camp-expands-for-third-straight-week/
AAII Website:
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

searching is a pain. anyone have link to 2014 article?

FYI: t's no surprise to note that John Bogle, founder of Vanguard and inventor of the index fund as we know it, is among the most influential investors of the past half-century. Bogle's savvy wisdom is often distilled in quotable things he's said and written. Today I'll look at nine such quotes and add my (mostly favorable) comments.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-genius-of-john-bogle-in-9-quotes-2016-11-23/print

There is also a very good article in the January 2014 MFO on cash rich funds, with the market hitting new highs these funds mandate a close look. Good luck, Lukemon

The purchase of an equal weighted blend of small cap value, emerging small cap, and large cap value or mid cap growth from the Nov 1 to May 1 period, then switched to utilities, Long U.S. treasuries, or cash ( depending on risk model heuristic ) from May 1 to Nov1 has produced risk adjusted median rolling 15 year total return periods > 1600% tinyurl.com/hh3ymn8 ( or 22.4% CAGR vs. 14.8% for Berkshire Hathaway since 1986 ) since 1954.
Would rather examine and trust 60+ years of repeatable empirical data as evidence vs. a couple weeks of post election event market behavior and anecdote !

FYI: Let’s talk about your new book, "Your Complete Guide To Factor Investing.” Why did you decide to write a book on smart beta?
Regards,
Ted
http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/new-swedroe-book-your-complete-guide-factor-investing?nopaging=1

FYI: On a tear before the election, the average fund is down 4.4% after it because of president-elect's rhetoric about countries like Mexico and China
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20161123/FREE/161129965/emerging-markets-sink-after-trump-victory

@claimui. Isn't ARTGX doing well because it has some US stocks? higher dollar is what is killing international stocks. One would expect ARTKX to underperform ARTGX.

To clarify, I meant that they are doing well compared to their respective categories. ARTKX is in the top 5-10% for the "foreign large blend" category; ARTGX is in the top 10-20% for the "world stock" category.
You are correct that ARTGX is doing better than ARTKX (presumably because of the better performance of US stocks) on an absolute basis, but ARTKX is doing better than ARTGX when compared to their categories/benchmarks -- although both are doing well in general.

Another fan here of ARTKX and its mgmt. Holding it since 2006. I also held ARTGX for a few years and but then sold it to reduce redundancy between the two. I have numerous other US based funds and I need them for their international expertise.
Tempted to split the money into ARTJX in the last 1-2 years, but never took the step.

@MFO Members Great new, there are simply too many mutual funds. In the United States, there were more than nine thousand mutual funds in 2014, managing assets worth approximately 15.85 trillion U.S. dollars. Domestic equity funds constituted 42 percent of the fund market in the United States. The second most popular were bond funds, with 21 percent of the market share.
Regards,
Ted

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1611894/000114036116087676/form497.htm
497 1 form497.htm CORSAIR OPPORTUNITY FUND 497 11-22-2016
Corsair Opportunity Fund
(THE “FUND”)
SUPPLEMENT DATED NOVEMBER 23, 2016 TO THE FUND’S
PROSPECTUS AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
DATED JANUARY 27, 2016
On November 22, 2016, the Board of Trustees (the "Board") of the Fund approved a Plan of Liquidation and Termination (the "Plan"), whereby the assets of the Fund would be liquidated and the Fund subsequently dissolved.
In light of the Board's decision, shares of the Fund are no longer being offered.
As a result of the Fund's liquidation, each shareholder of the Fund as of the close of business on December 15, 2016 will be entitled to receive a distribution in an amount equal to the net asset value of his/her shares as of December 15, 2016, to be received prior to December 22, 2016. The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be a taxable event. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning you particular tax situation. A notice concerning the Plan and the liquidation and dissolution of the Fund will be mailed to shareholders.