FYI: The bond market is flashing warning signals that bad times may be ahead for the stock market and the economy.
That is probably not what most people want to hear — stock investors especially. In the first half of the year, after all, stocks have performed spectacularly. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index returned 9 percent through June, churning out gains so regularly that it may seem churlish to note that clouds are appearing on the horizon.
Yet like a long-range forecast about a possible storm, an old and trusted financial indicator is telling us that trouble may be looming.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/30/your-money/clouds-are-forming-over-the-bond-market.html

@expatsp: good question ... especially since I am in the middle of a portfolio re-organization (for myself and my wife) to better reflect how likely we are to rebalance and etc. !
Some background...
In general, before I buy into a fund, I do a lot of research. I consider my asset allocation, role in portfolio, etc. I don't look at simple average returns without also considering downside / upside capture and cumulative returns. I used to go so far as to do a correlation and simulation exercise to determine if the candidate fund would add bang to buck while acting differently than my core 4-5 funds. I like managers who know how to hold cash.
Before moving out of a fund, I try to be very sensitive to my own biases and put the breaks on any temptation to jump in and out of funds. I want stuff I can buy and hold; I don't want to fall into the trap of "OMG I should be doing something all the time" and thus getting low investor returns because I can't leave well enough alone. I remain sensitive to the fact that solid active managers will underperform. I have held funds that have underperformed over 3 year intervals for example, and have gone on to deliver long-term above-average results. So, I want something more than just a bad stretch to make a move. I don't mind a concentrated portfolio, and philosophically am skeptical of crowd phenomena.
FAIRX fulfilled all of my buy criteria when I first became a shareholder in 2007. I resisted the temptation to go all-in during its heyday, and kept it at 5% of my portfolio, in a sleeve that I consider alternate approaches. I have not rotated into or out of the fund, and have made money on it since I bought in. Oddly enough, however, in holding FAIRX I would have done no better since 2007 than if I had bought and held a decent bond fund...
So, all that said...
I guess I have held on to FAIRX in large part because of the biases and philosophy noted above, and its small share of my total portfolio. But also I made a career change in 2011, and have increasingly had much, much less time for investing (because I have less time for anything). I was also insufficiently sensitive to the issues that LewisBraham notes above. I always had more of an emotional attachment to the FAIRX philosophy, then to Bruce himself. That said, I was ticked off by Bruce's AUM and publicity spree, as well as what might be considered flaws in personal judgement (Barron's piece), but just never got around to making a move, because I bought into his theses. Now, silly as it seems, the issue is identifying the suitable fund to rotate into given my current portfolio.
D.S.

Hi,
I most likely will add to my single state muni fund (FMTNX) when the US 10 Year reaches a yield of 2.5%, or thereabouts, with current yield at about 2.3%. Remember, generally bond prices fall as their yield rises. I hold this fund as part of my infrastructure theme along with PGUAX since muni bonds fund a lot of local government infrastructure projects. Plus, the fund is both state and federal tax exempt, for me, unless it has capital gains to disburse.

I have no idea if the firm will be proven right or wrong but it would obviously be more useful to know what to invest in rather than being told what won't work. I personally don't anticipate ever investing in a cd paying less than 2% but might invest in a lower paying investment with excellent liquidity.One possible approach for the next 10 years invest in a relatively high paying safe investment such as a 5 year cd with a low penalty for early closeout i.e with decent liquidity and close it out when the market drops 25% which is something that will probably occur at least once in the net 10 years.Yes, i recognise that this strategy might not work but would be pleased with other suggestions

@davidmoran, I take it you mean the price today, the 30th? Strong possibility it was just buyers helping it catch up with the premium narrowing of the 29th, when the NAV was up 1% and price flat. None of the other Pim MS CEF NAVs were up nearly that much - second highest was 0.2% for PCM, and most of the others were flat. So the NAV jump must have been something specific to PDI, but what, who knows?
Might also have been a bit of the T dip buying involved, which bumped some CEFs today, including some munis. PCI, which did well on price today too, not so great on NAV yesterday, had been lagging a bit for a while, so maybe PCI also caught a bid based on the combination of those two things - recent lag, T dip buying.
Couldn't find any news of July dividends being declared - the month's divs are usually announced on the first biz day of the new month, same day as the previous month's payout, if I'm recalling the schtick correctly, e.g., here.

"Buying and selling based on a moving average of monthly closes can be an effective strategy for managing the risk of severe loss from major bear markets."
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/06/30/moving-averages-june-month-end-update

I am so confused. I thought declaration was a while ago (per their site, ex date 6/8, record date 6/12, payment Monday). Also stocks typically drop post-div (I know this is not that, but it is cef). Hmm.

Hi @David_Snowball
Yes, I recall the fund you mentioned and Mr. Arnott; with the connection to Pimco.
I watched this fund for a few years wondering where it was traveling to and why it held the chosen investment sectors. I don't watch anymore.
This link = composition and other choices:
https://nb.fidelity.com/public/workplacefunds/composition/OSBX?fundId=OSBX&planId=50405
This link charting PAAIX against PONDX:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?PAAIX,PONDX&n=2576&O=011000
I couldn't recommend this fund or advisement from this organization; as I don't find performance of consequence.
I wondered in the past where the managers have their monies invested.
Regards,
Catch

Research Affiliates are Rob Arnott's group. They've been around 15 years and specialize in smart beta and asset allocation strategies; to their great credit, they've been warning that smart beta strategies (low vol, for instance) got too popular to actually generate decent returns. Arnott's argument is that only three smart beta factors, including size and value, are likely to have any enduring virtue.
About the best real-world test of their approach is PIMCO All Asset Fund (PAAIX) which is the go-anywhere fund they manage for PIMCO. Four-star, $20 billion, analyst rated as Gold, top 4% over the past decade despite a bad slump from 2013-15. By MFO's measures, since inception it has substantially higher returns, lower volatility, smaller max drawdown, quicker recovery time and better Sharpe/Sortino/Martin ratios than its Global Macro peer group.
On whole, they're responsible for about $200 billion and are well-respected though certainly not right all the time about everything.
If they're marketing anything, I'd guess it's their free asset allocation tool. It's so complex that Charles swooned in delight when he first saw it. I mostly backed quietly away.
Cheers,
David

While the fund has no symbol, here is the last prospectus
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1496315/000116204416002645/gpif485bpos.htm

+1

Just think about this: When this fund hit $10 billion in assets, it was taking in upwards of $100 million in fees a year. I don't think it ever had a tremendous analyst staff or back office or that many employees overall at like say Fidelity. That means a significant portion of that $100 million was going to Berkowitz directly. What does that do to someone's mind to make that much money in a single year? How does it affect your ego and your motivation to work hard to continue to produce excess returns?

@Shostakovich,
Actually when I look at the old portfolios and annual reports I see the fund was then a truly all-cap fund with a few large companies like--Berkshire Hathaway--to some tiny companies like Gladstone Capital and Wlitel Communications and a number of mid-sized ones too. Here's an excerpt from the 2003 semi-annual report:

We continue to act with the knowledge that the golden rule of investing is: Don't Lose. And the best way we know to follow that rule is to buy parts of good businesses run by exceptional people at the right price. We are continually on the search to find the next Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, Joe Steinberg and Ian Cumming, Jack Byrne - the next business thoroughbreds. While our search goes on, we will continue to buy more of what we know and understand best, subject only to paying the right price and the position limits imposed on the Fund by law.

https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096344/000109380103000886/ncsr-703.txt
Even in the case of large companies it did own back then, I don't know how you go from buying a company like Berkshire Hathaway, which has long had a balance sheet like Fort Knox, to AIG and Fannie Mae.

Hi, Ted.
I had the same first reaction as you but, as it turns out, these are two separate funds. The current fund launched in 2010 with the mission of investing in Formula 1 companies, which includes folks who sponsor racing teams or are otherwise tied to them. The other Grand Prix GPFFX (and its sibling Grand Prix Midcap) liquidated in 2009, so far as I can tell. I'm hedging on that statement just because the SEC database is bereft for references to it.
David

So, the author; in view of his scenario of future investment growth going into the toilet, would still expect these online "returns" will be in place???
Quote: "By comparison, annual percentage yields of 1 percent or more are available in online savings accounts from Ally and Synchrony, and online checking accounts from Aspiration."
The banks and related all have "their" spreads of profit, yes? How would they be able to continue to pay these rates when we enter "deflation"???
Anyone able to find performance data from this organization?
Seems to be hidden away unless one provides a life history or opens an account.
Marketing is what I see from the article.
More coffee? Yes, I do believe I need another cup.
If you are able to sort out any of the authors jibber-jabber, please let us know.
Regards,
Catch

@MFO Members: For a couple of years, 1998-1999, Grand Prix Mutual Fund was the hottest thing since sliced bread, and investors were willing to pay a front-load of 5.5% and an expense ratio of 2.5%. Bob Zuccaro's fund returned 111.8% in 1998, followed up with a 147.8% return in 1999. The fund was up 70% until March of 2000 when the Nasdaq crashed and died
Regards,
Ted
Grand Prix's Big Mo:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2000-05-28/grand-prixs-big-mo
Bob Wins The Bobby Prize:
https://www.forbes.com/forbes/2004/0920/246.html:
NY Times Article: (Roy Weitz, FundAlarm Founder, comments.)
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/09/business/mutfund/for-a-few-tech-stars-time-for-a-second-act.html

Funds often have multiple share classes designed with additional fees to be sold NTF.
T. Rowe Price has "advisor class" shares, e.g. PAVLX (the 12b-1 version of TRVLX). Years ago I purchased $5K of an advisor class fund (costing me an extra $12.50/year, pre-tax) from a bank's brokerage in order to qualify for some service I wanted. I figured $9 bucks/year wouldn't break me. It still sells this share class.
This time, TRP is offering its "normal" retail shares NTF. ISTM that TRP might choose to absorb the platform costs because: (a) it may give them more AUM (could still be profitable, though less so than selling directly), (b) larger fund companies cut special deals with brokerages to reduce platform fees, and (c) there is some small cost savings for TRP by servicing a single omnibus account from each brokerage as opposed to servicing all the underlying accounts separately.
If you haven't seen Fidelity charge more than Schwab for the same fund, you haven't looked at N&B funds. Fidelity offers N&B "trust" shares NTF. These shares have an extra 10 basis point 12b-1 fee (and may add extra expenses on top of that), vs. the investor shares you'd buy directly from N&B or from Schwab NTF. For example, NBSSX is NTF at Schwab. If you want to avoid a transaction fee, at Fidelity you'll have to buy NBFCX; NBSSX carries a transaction fee.

JUNE 29
No, not an everything list and the same list from the 27th of June.
Gonna need some Preparation H if this continues.
Hey, ask someone you know who has the inside track; as to where the money is flowing.
Thank you.
chg | %
ITOT -0.82%
FREL -1.18%
HEDJ -2.38%
FHLC -0.91%
LQD -0.31%
IEF -0.37%
EDV -1.07%
HYG -0.25%

Just checked my TDA account. I moved PRHSX from TRP to TDA in 2012, so it seems they are offered since 2012.
Very luck y with this fund. Bought a small amount ($2k) in 2011. Sold $3k since then and still hold 1.2k. Insignificant part of the over portfolio, but happy to see such a return.