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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Best Frontier Market Funds?
    RNWIX holdings as of 7/31:
    72% Emerging
    14% US (Total of 6 holdings, two being Carnival Corp Lines and Royal Caribbean)
    6% Frontier
    6% Foreign Developed
    2% Cash
    For anyone who's interested, I spoke to Rondure Cust Svc the other day to ask when the first actual fund reports will be out, and the answer was end of October -- as of 9/30 (end of Q3), with the 30-day lag openice mentioned.
  • SP500 valuations
    Per the Aug 31 stats, those are the four, and discretionary is the laggard. My question is why it wasn't knocked out by the poor momentum factor. Was energy the other sector in the top-5 value department, and so it was the one knocked out instead of discretionary?
  • Investors See Stock Market Correction Ahead — But Most Aren't Doing Anything About It
    Not sure why this should surprise anyone, or even be newsworthy...
    Homo sapiens generally engages in herd behavior WRT financial issues. -- Besides, 'doing something' to protect one's portfolio would have resulted in enormous opportunity cost over the past 1-, 3-, & 5-year period. So we few who did it/are doing it are seen as stupid bumpkins.
    Compounding the natural herding behaviour is the dogma of 'buy and hold'. Hey, 'set it and forget it'. Everybody is worrying about trimming a couple hundredths of a decimal point off their ETF's expense ratio. I am always amazed how the most adamant 'buy and holders' are so tight-fisted about expenses, yet quite happy to pay extravagant prices for the underlying assets -- and urge others to do the same. Tulips anyone?
    The business cycle has not been repealed. Bear markets have not been outlawed. There will come (another-) reckoning.
    Until then, I'll just 'go fishin' (or the equivalent.--This evening, I just put in some orders for next week's T-bill auctions.)
  • SP500 valuations
    Do you keep track of which sectors its in each month? I don't but I think it has been Technology, Healthcare, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary for a while now and at least for most of the last 6 months. That's just my recollection based on the few times I have checked and an assumption that there haven't been a lot of flips in and out.
    Consumer Discretionary has been a bad place to be for the last 6 months compared to the S&P and when they rebalance each month more money goes in and then that sector underperforms again. The other sectors have had good/great months and not so good months but overall they mostly seem pretty competitive with the S&P and in some cases pretty clearly better.
    Consumer Discretionary trailed the S&P:
    -1.26 vs 0.62 in September
    -1.86 vs. 0.31 in August
    1.93 vs. 2.06 in July
    -1.26 vs. 0.62 in June
    1.10 vs. 1.41 in May
    and it won 2.4% vs. 1.03% in April
    I used the Select SPDR etf because I think that's what the index and fund are based on and I think that's carrying almost all of the blame for the relative performance the last 6 months.
  • Ben Carlson: Some Market Myths Hurt Investors
    This article reminds me of a few of the misplaced,
    misunderstood aphorisms that Wall Street has appropriated
    from popular culture… since they have so few original ideas.
    “Cash is King”
    We all know that when the famous Bible thumping music critic
    Chester Hunkelbum made that comment, he was referring
    to Johnny Cash. How could he ever know that Wall Street
    would steal and make it their own?
    “It will not be broke by prophet”
    Okay, Hunkelbum had bad grammar. But he was referring to
    Abraham the prophet when he tripped and almost broke the
    10-commandment stone tablet that Moses had placed in his backpack
    for safekeeping. Along came some financial adviser who bastardized this
    into something about not going broke if you take a profit.
    “Every ship at the bottom of the ocean has a chartroom”
    It’s easy to see how Hunkelbum became depressed years later when
    struggling to maintain his credibility. The computer age was, as he said,
    “uncharted territory”. As readers began logging off his web site,
    he lamented, “We’re bottoming. Another ship has left the chat room.”
    Leave it to Wall Street to snatch this comment and twist it to their liking.
    We shall miss Chester Hunkelbum
  • SP500 valuations
    Hmm, what's going on?
    With a starting point of six months ago, CAPE and SP500 performance is close to identical,
    Starting from 5/4/3/2/1mo, though, CAPE (which algorithmically value-churns every month) lags notably.
    There must be a story here.
  • Best Frontier Market Funds?
    RNWIX holdings as of 7/31:
    72% Emerging
    14% US (Total of 6 holdings, two being Carnival Corp Lines and Royal Caribbean)
    6% Frontier
    6% Foreign Developed
    2% Cash
    The full holdings: http://www.rondureglobal.com/holdings/rnwix-rnwox are posted by domicile with a 1-month lag for both Rondure funds on their website.
    The 6% "domicile" in frontier countries misrepresents RNWIX exposure to these markets because many of these companies "domiciled" in non-frontier countries have activity in frontier markets, and so the portfolio reflects this exposure.
    In her 7/15/17 commentary, Geritz said that "Our New World strategy is a developing markets strategy. It is a mix of what I did as the lead on the Wasatch Frontier Emerging Small Country (an all-cap strategy) and the Wasatch Emerging Small Cap strategy."
    So, no, it's not a fund purely focused on frontier markets -- as has been pointed out --
    but an idea that I wished to further explore myself.
  • Jeff Saut Commentary for Sept 2017...Russel 2000 showing signs of outperfroming FANGS
    On Managing Risk:
    ‘The essence of portfolio management is the management of risks, not the management of returns."
    market-commentary-and-insights/investment-strategy
    Daily Market Audio:
    "Russel 2000 may outperform... watch for tax reform from Washington"
    Sept 29 Audio
    Link to Additional Commentary:
    market-commentary-and-insights
  • Ben Carlson: Some Market Myths Hurt Investors
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    There are a number of rules of thumb and aphorisms that investors accept without investigating their merits based on the historical evidence. For example, many assume that buying individual bonds is safer than owning a bond mutual fund or ETF because it will shield them from interest-rate risk. The idea is that bond funds can fall in value but individual bonds will mature at par, so you don’t have to worry about losses when you hold them directly.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&q=Ben+Carlson+Some+Market+Myths+Hurt+Investors+Bloomberg&oq=Ben+Carlson+Some+Market+Myths+Hurt+Investors+Bloomberg&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3869.21060.0.21468.24.23.0.0.0.0.194.3625.0j22.22.0.dummy_maps_web_fallback...0...1.1j2.64.psy-ab..2.20.3265.0..0j35i39k1j0i131k1j0i131i46k1j46i131k1j0i20i264k1j33i160k1j33i21k1.0.y6NRCaCsb8Y
  • Best Frontier Market Funds?
    Agree. Digging deeper into the portfolio holding there is about 15% invested in US companies who derived majority of the earning from EM countries. Many of which are cruise ship entertainment companies.
  • spx 10% gain?
    Hi @johnN,
    John thanks for posting the article on utilities. Eventhough utilities account for about 3% of the S&P 500 Index they currently make up about 7% of Old_Skeet's holdings. I'm thinking of raising my utility sector weighting by about (1%) by adding a mutual fund (AWTAX) that's theme centers around water.
    Think about it ... the two or three things we widely use in our homes are electricty, natural gas and water (at least they are in mine). Heck, I even have and maintain a standby power generation system should there be a power outage at my home. Then there is the phone and internet that kinda follows utilities.
    It is a bum deal for the rate payers in South Carolina that (Summner) a nuclear power plant will most likely never be completed. I'm thinking that the power companies owe the rate payers a refund for this power plant folly of their making. Instead the power companies want the rate payers to pay more for a plant that looks like it will never be brought on line. I look for things to heat up in South Carolina over this in the coming months as hearings take place in Columbia. While in North Carolina Duke Energy wants it's rate payers to pay for coal ash pond clean up that the utility mishandled through the years and are going to be very costly to clean up. Hearings are underway in Raleigh as I write concerning this.
    If the rates payers wind up having to pay for these failures and follies of the utility companies ... I'm increasing my allocation in the utility sector. In a sence, I'll collect what I have to pay out through an increase in utility rates with their payment of dividends back to me as I own homes in both states.
    For me, it is a no brainer ... own some utilities as the rate payers most likely will have to pay up.
  • Target return of RiverPark Short Term High Yield (RPHYX / RPHIX)?
    I am a long time RPHYX shareholder, but have been reducing my position and am reconsidering its value. Originally its stated goals were (as David Snowball put it) 300-400 bps over money market. But as Junkster points out in this earlier thread:
    This fund is not going to give you 3.5%-4.5% a year. I mean 2.20% over the past 3 years and 2.76 over the past 5 years. This year it is on track for around 2.80. Some of the Fidelity money market funds are now yielding over 1% (of course you will need a million dollars) And lesser money market funds yields are rising and will continue to rise with the increase in the fed funds rate. So no way 300-400bps over money market. Otherwise a fine fund with negligible volatility and way above money market returns (for now) This we can agree on.
    Morningstar currently has this fund at 2.41% over the past year, 2.19% over the past 3 years and 2.58% over the past 5 years. Of course this is in part due to 2015, where there some investment mistakes resulted in a disastrous year (relatively speaking). However, just looking at the more recent returns, it doesn't seem like "300-400 bps over money market" has been a feasible goal for some time now.
    I took a look at some of the recent manager commentaries on the RiverPark website, but they didn't seem to give much insight as to target return and whether they expect recent trends to persist. What do other folks think -- Is a return of 2.5% a more realistic expectation for this fund? Is it still worth sticking to around this level?
  • Think Driverless Cars Are The Future? A New ETF Lets You Invest In Them Now: (CARS)
    FTI: Exposure to one of the most highly anticipated technological trends of recent years will soon be available to investors in one of the most popular investment wrappers on the market.
    Evolve Funds, an investment fund based in Toronto, is launching an exchange-traded fund dedicated to innovation in automobiles. The fund will hold companies “that are directly or indirectly involved in developing electric drivetrains, autonomous driving or network connected services for automobiles,” per its prospectus.
    It will begin trading on Friday, according to a Reuters report. Evolve Funds didn’t immediately return a request for comment or confirmation.
    The Evolve Automobile Innovation Index ETF will trade under the symbol “CARS” and charge an annual expense ratio of 0.4%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/think-driverless-cars-are-the-future-a-new-etf-lets-you-invest-in-them-now-2017-09-28/print
  • JPMorgan Diversified Real Return Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217286/000119312517296892/d463886d497.htm
    497 1 d463886d497.htm JPMORGAN TRUST I
    JPMorgan Diversified Real Return Fund
    (All Share Classes)
    (a series of JPMorgan Trust I)
    Supplement dated September 28, 2017
    To the Prospectuses, Summary Prospectuses and Statement
    of Additional Information dated December 29, 2016, as supplemented
    NOTICE OF LIQUIDATION OF THE JPMORGAN DIVERSIFIED REAL RETURN FUND. As previously communicated to shareholders, the Board of Trustees of the JPMorgan Diversified Real Return Fund (the “Fund”) has approved the liquidation and dissolution of the Fund on or about December 8, 2017 (the “Liquidation Date”). In preparation for the liquidation, the Fund may liquidate its investments in securities and other direct investments and may invest in other J.P. Morgan Funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) (collectively, “Underlying Funds”) to gain exposure to inflation-sensitive and other asset classes that have exposure to broad equity, fixed income and alternative markets. Effective September 28, 2017, J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. and/or its affiliates will waive additional fees and/or reimburse additional expenses related to the investment in Underlying Funds to the extent Total Annual Fund Operating Expenses including the Cayman Subsidiary and Underlying Fund fees (but excluding dividend and interest expenses related to short sales, interest, taxes, expenses related to litigation and potential litigation, and extraordinary expenses) exceed 1.00%, 1.50%, 0.75, 1.30% and 0.65% of Class A, Class C, Class I, Class R2 and Class R5 Shares, respectively. In addition, the Fund may depart from its stated investment objective and strategies and liquidate any or all of its assets including any or all of its investments in Underlying Funds as it increases its cash holdings in preparation for its liquidation.
    Unless you have an individual retirement account (“IRA”) where UMB Bank n.a. currently serves as the custodian, on the Liquidation Date, the Fund shall distribute pro rata to its shareholders of record all of the assets of the Fund in complete cancellation and redemption of all of the outstanding shares of beneficial interest, except for cash, bank deposits or cash equivalents in an estimated amount necessary to (i) discharge any unpaid liabilities and obligations of the Fund on the Fund’s books on the Liquidation Date, including, but not limited to, income dividends and capital gains distributions, if any, payable through the Liquidation Date, and (ii) pay such contingent liabilities as the officers of the Fund deem appropriate subject to ratification by the Board. Capital gain distributions, if any, may be paid on or prior to the Liquidation Date. If you have a Fund direct IRA account, your shares will be exchanged for Morgan Shares of the JPMorgan U.S. Government Money Market Fund unless you provide alternative direction prior to the Liquidation Date. For all other IRA accounts, the proceeds will be invested based upon guidelines of the applicable Plan administrator.
    Upon liquidation, shareholders may purchase any class of another J.P. Morgan Fund for which they are eligible with the proceeds of the liquidating distribution. Shareholders holding Class A Shares or Class I Shares will be permitted to use their proceeds from the liquidation to purchase Class A Shares of another J.P. Morgan Fund at net asset value within 90 days of the liquidating distribution, provided that they remain eligible to purchase Class A Shares. They may also purchase other share classes for which they are eligible. If shareholders of Class C Shares purchase Class C Shares of another J.P. Morgan Fund within 90 days of the liquidating distribution, no contingent deferred sales charge will be imposed on those new Class C Shares. At the time of the purchase you must inform your Financial Intermediary or the Funds that the proceeds are from the liquidated fund.
    FOR EXISTING SHAREHOLDERS OF RECORD OF THE FUND AS OF AUGUST 24, 2017, ADDITIONAL PURCHASES OF FUND SHARES WILL BE ACCEPTED UP TO AND INCLUDING DECEMBER 1, 2017 AFTER WHICH NO NEW PURCHASES WILL BE ACCEPTED. FOR ALL OTHER INVESTORS, PURCHASES OF FUND SHARES WERE NO LONGER ACCEPTED AFTER AUGUST 24, 2017.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT
    WITH THE PROSPECTUS, SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND
    STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    SUP-DRR-LIQ-917
  • Christine Benz Will Coach You To Improve Your Financial Life In 21 Days
    In fairness to @Maurice, I believe he served-up the article somewhat satirically. The give-away is his comment: "Each link provides details on what to do."
    It's all prudent advice (elementary as @Ted states). The irony is that those who truly need it aren't disciplined enough or knowledgeable enough to master it in just 21 easy steps (without additional support).
    (Like OJ, they're probably out in the garage right now looking around for a net. :))
  • Christine Benz Will Coach You To Improve Your Financial Life In 21 Days
    @hank & MFO Members: "Doubt many here need this advice" You hit the nail on the head. I looked at the series of articles by Christine when they were posted on M*, and decided not to link and subject MFO Members to such elementary advice. Plus, most of this was covered in her 2011 book "Morningstar's 30-Minute Money Solutions: A Step-by-Step Guide to Managing Your Finances", which you can buy through MFO's link to Amazon.
    Regards
    Ted
  • Best Frontier Market Funds?
    Reviving an old thread since the comments here are still on point. I was looking for a replacement for WAFMX, having been disenchanted since Laura Geritz' departure (and a little bit before that). Two options caught my attention, both old funds that have reopened earlier this year:
    HSBC Frontier Markets Fund (HSFAX / HSFIX) - Good performance historically. The original manager left for Ashmore and is now managing their frontier markets fund (mentioned earlier in this thread). That would generally be a big red flag except that HSBC has since recruited a new manager and he seems to be doing well. The "A" class shares (HSFAX) are available without a load from Vanguard and presumably other platforms, although the expense ratio is comparable to WAFMX (i.e. very high).
    Templeton Frontier Markets Fund (TFMAX / FFRZX) - Main appeal here is the Advisor class shares (FFRZX) which are available on platforms for a low minimum and carry a expense ratio of 1.75%, quite the bargain for this category. Great YTD and 1 year numbers, but the longer performance record has been a little unsteady. Also a concern about the lead manager Mark Mobius, who was supposedly retiring from Templeton and left their other EM funds, but for some reason is still leading this one. This gives me the impression that Templeton is not too confident about handing off this fund to the other existing team members.
    I ended up going with HSFAX. FYI I thought the Morgan Stanley and Ashmore funds also seemed like good options.