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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Weekly Market Recap Sep 24, 2017
    SPX: Yup, checked SPX earlier, too. Bold below is for last week.......at .08%.
    SPX 0.06 0.08 2.03 2.78 11.76
  • Weekly Market Recap Sep 24, 2017
    @catch22: SPY is not SPX ! SPY is a ETF that's holdings track SPX. I don't believe it was a typo, remember SPY has an ER of 0.10%
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Weekly Market Recap Sep 24, 2017
    From the article:
    For the week the S&P 500 gained 0.4%,
    A typo, eh?
    SPY was at +.1% for the week.
  • Weekly Market Recap Sep 24, 2017
    FYI: Four days of mild gains offset by a day of modest losses led to a quiet week. For the week the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, the NASDAQ fell 0.3% while the Russell 2000 was the standout with a gain of 1.3%. The Federal Reserve did announce the long awaited draw down of it’s balance sheet which was of no surprise – and the market’s reaction was muted. The Fed ended it’s massive bond buying program in 2014, but continued to reinvest maturing bonds to keep the balance sheet from shrinking.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.stocktrader.com/2017/09/25/weekly-market-recap-sep-24-2017/
  • Would Your Retirement Portfolio Last If The Market Crashed?
    FYI: You worked hard for your money. You planned for retirement. But now you’re getting nervous. U.S. stocks gained 233 percent between January 2009 and September 2017. If you retire this year, and stocks take a dive, could you run out of money?
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-center/articles/would-your-retirement-portfolio-last-if-the-market-crashed
  • Mutual Fund Names are Confusing
    From Article:
    How does the average 401(k) participant or Do-It-Yourself investor select mutual funds with names that are not only confusing, but often, downright misleading?
    disclosure: Found this article through one of @Ted's links.
    https://thirtynorth.com/mutual-fund-names-are-confusing/
  • Still be a watch'in our healthcare holdings for signs of direction, pending "new bill", but we.....
    And no help, so that I may learn the correct.......?
    Well, here are a few links:
    https://www.mediaite.com/tv/the-context-behind-nancy-pelosis-famous-we-have-to-pass-the-bill-quote/
    https://www.google.com/search?q=nancy+pelosi+health+care+speech&oq=nancy+pelosi+health+care+&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l5.22368j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
    The opening thread with its conditions and circumstances to the political absurdities is well beyond my control; and we never receive meaningful replies from those who represent us in D.C.-land.
    As I have no intentions of misrepresentation of factual(s) regardless of subject matter, .............hmmmmmmmmmmmm, perhaps time to rest the passion.
    Good night,
  • Still be a watch'in our healthcare holdings for signs of direction, pending "new bill", but we.....
    .....remain saddened by the elected representatives of the people. Sen. Grassley's below statement ranks right in line with Nancy Pelosi's statement pending the ACA vote that they needed to pass this bill to find out what is inside. (Ms. Pelosi's video statement and related linked in follow up post in this thread)
    All sad commentary about the state of our current political system from both sides. Citizens, go about your "other" business, there is nothing to see here; please move along.

    Washington (CNN)When Iowa reporters asked Sen. Chuck Grassley on Wednesday about the attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare, his answer was remarkable and revealing.
    "You know, I could maybe give you 10 reasons why this bill shouldn't be considered," the Iowa Republican said. "But Republicans campaigned on this so often that you have a responsibility to carry out what you said in the campaign. That's pretty much as much of a reason as the substance of the bill."

    Add: http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/21/politics/grassley-trump-health-care/index.html
    ***We are indeed following this pending legislation, as there would likely be winners and losers in healthcare sectors; where we have a sizable percentage of our portfolio.
    Now to top off an evening of knowledge.........the next episode of the PBS Vietnam series.
    Good evening to all.
    Catch
  • Implications Of Mixing Target Date And Non-Target Date Strategies
    Reminds me of PRPFX, which few talk about these days. PRPFX is almost 30% (gold/silver).
    Oh, I own it alright. But I don't talk about it here. It's currently out of favor with the herd and I've never felt obligated to defend/justify my choice of investments to others.
    Re Dalio - I hear he's pretty smart. But 7.5% gold? Holy cow. I like some exposure, but don't have the stomach for the 200-proof stuff. Prefer to own it through PRPFX, PRAFX, and (probably) RPGAX - which behaves as if it has some exposure through its 10% stake in a Blackstone hedge fund,
  • Implications Of Mixing Target Date And Non-Target Date Strategies
    Here's another take on asset allocating across market risk and time.
    Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio:
    Equities = 30%
    LT treasuries = 40%
    IT Treasuries = 15%
    Gold = 7.5%
    Commodities = 7.5%
    -Rebalanced once a year.
    Reminds me of PRPFX, which few talk about these days. PRPFX is almost 30% (gold/silver).
    Conversation with Forbes (regarding this portfolio):
    https://youtu.be/c0ARb1N-3kM
    Boglehead comments on this type of risk parity portfolio:
    Re: Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio
  • The YouTube Channels For Investors To Watch Now
    FYI: Investors today have more information at their fingertips than ever before. Real-time stock apps, trader blogs, 24-7 streaming business news, fintweets, Reddit communities — there are countless ways to get your due diligence on.
    It’s high time we add YouTube to that list -- the video streaming platform has a deep bench of traders, experts and would-be Warren Buffetts (or perhaps would-be Jim Cramers) proffering advice.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-youtube-channels-for-investors-to-watch-now-2017-09-20/print
  • TFS Capital Investment Trust (TFS Funds) to liquidate three funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1283381/000139834417012114/fp0028112_497.htm
    497 1 fp0028112_497.htm
    September 19, 2017
    TFS CAPITAL INVESTMENT TRUST
    (the “Trust”)
    TFS Market Neutral Fund (TFSMX)
    TFS Small Cap Fund (TFSSX)
    TFS Hedged Futures Fund (TFSHX)
    Supplement to the Prospectuses dated March 1, 2017
    Effective immediately, TFS Market Neutral Fund, TFS Small Cap Fund, and TFS Hedged Futures Fund (each a “Fund” and collectively the “Funds”) have terminated the public offering of their shares and will discontinue each Fund’s operations on or about October 27, 2017 (the “Liquidation Date”). Shares of the Funds are no longer available for purchase, including for purchases through Automatic Investment Plans. The Funds intend to make a final distribution of capital gains and income on or about September 29, 2017.
    At a meeting of the Board of Trustees held on September 19, 2017 (the “Board Meeting”), the Board of Trustees, in consultation with the Trust’s investment adviser, TFS Capital LLC (the “Adviser”), determined, to liquidate the Trust based on, among other factors, the Adviser’s belief that it would be in the best interests of the Funds and their shareholders to discontinue each Fund’s operations. Through the Liquidation Date, the Adviser will continue to waive fees and reimburse expenses of each Fund, as necessary, to maintain each Fund’s fees and expenses at their current level, as specified in the Funds’ Prospectuses dated March 1, 2017.
    At the Board Meeting, the Board of Trustees directed that with respect to each Fund: (i) all or substantially all of the Fund’s portfolio securities be liquidated in an orderly manner no later than September 29, 2017; and (ii) all or substantially all outstanding shareholder accounts on the Liquidation Date will be closed and the proceeds of each account would be sent to the shareholder’s address of record or to such other address as directed by the shareholder, including special instructions that may be needed for Individual Retirement Accounts (“IRAs”) and qualified pension and profit sharing fund accounts. Because of the liquidation of each Fund’s portfolio securities described above, each Fund’s normal exposure to its investment strategy will be reduced and eventually eliminated. Accordingly, shareholders should not expect any of the Funds to achieve its stated investment objective.
    Shareholders may continue to freely redeem their shares of the Funds on each business day during the Trust’s liquidation process.
    This transaction will be considered for tax purposes a sale of Fund shares by shareholders, and shareholders should consult with their own tax advisors to ensure its proper treatment on their income tax returns. In addition, shareholders invested through an IRA or other tax-deferred account should consult the rules regarding the reinvestment of these assets. To avoid a potential tax issue, shareholders may choose to authorize, prior to the Liquidation Date, a direct transfer of their retirement account assets to another tax-deferred retirement account. Typically, shareholders have 60 days from the Liquidation Date to invest the proceeds in another IRA or qualified retirement account; otherwise the liquidation proceeds may be required to be included in the shareholder’s taxable income for the current tax year.
    If you have any questions regarding any Fund, please call 1-888-534-2001.
    Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Reference
  • Implications Of Mixing Target Date And Non-Target Date Strategies
    Target date funds are designed as set-and-forget investments for those who want to have nothing to do with their investments. (I doubt many people here fall into that category.)
    It's rarely pointed out (as this article does in its first paragraph), that they don't work as intended if you throw in other investments: "Investors who mix target-date funds with other long-term equity or fixed income products could be inadvertently sabotaging their investment goals....This could lead to skewed asset allocations, over-diversification and potentially poor risk-adjusted returns."
    For such investors, if they don't like the glide path, they can pick another fund family or a different target date. They don't have to mix and match - that defeats the autopilot objective. For most people, target date funds are best used as all-or-nothing.
    I do see a couple of reasons why one might want to invest in more than a single target date fund. One is because a person might have different objectives. The standard objective is retirement. But one might also have a 529 plan. These plans often offer target date funds (also called age-date, as in these Calif. 529 funds). Obviously two different glide paths are appropriate for college and retirement.
    Another reason is to do the complete opposite of what target date funds are designed for. Deconstruct them, use their components as part of your personally managed portfolio. Though I'd be more inclined to crack open funds of funds that don't have glide paths.
    For example, if you want access to Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund (VASFX), you can get by investing in Vanguard Managed Payout Fund (VPGDX). 1/8 of that fund is VASFX. You do have to like the other funds in the package as well, and build your portfolio around them to make this work.
  • Larry Swedroe: Vanguard Debunks Dividend Myth
    "This must be true, unless you believe that $1 is not worth $1."
    Something I agree with. In the 90s, I walked into a Dreyfus office, and commented that I didn't see a difference between growth funds and growth & income funds (the latter placing some emphasis on dividends). The response was "someday you will". It's some day, and I still don't. A buck of total return is still a buck.
    It's a matter of cause and effect. A company paying or not paying a dividend doesn't make it different, but because a company is different (e.g. cash cow business vs. high tech) it may be more likely to pay a dividend.
    I tried posting a similar comment on ETF.com more than a day ago. It's a moderated site that apparently doesn't appreciate comments on this column (there are none as of now). FWIW, here's what I tried to post:
    "Less diversified portfolios are less efficient because they have a higher potential dispersion of returns without any compensation in the form of higher forward-looking return expectations (__assuming the exposure to investment factors are the same__)."
    But they're not the same in the case of dividend growth ("lower volatility and [higher] quality") and high dividend ("value and lower volatility") strategies. In fact, with coefficients of correlation at 89% and 95%, these strategies function pretty well as proxies for those different investment factors.
    Whether one wants to emphasize those particular factors is a different question. Personally, I've always looked for total return, regardless of whether a fund was growth oriented, equity income focused, whatever. But if you want to say that high dividend funds don't reward investors, it seems you also have to say that there hasn't been a value premium in the market (and houses like DFA have simply been lucky).
  • Reorganization of the Third Avenue International Value Fund
    (middle of the screen)(similar to Ted's post)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1031661/000162612917000530/tat-497_091917.htm
    ...Reorganization of the Third Avenue International Value Fund into the Third Avenue Value Fund
    On September 19, 2017, Third Avenue Management LLC announced that it intends to seek approval from the Boards of Trustees of the Third Avenue Value Fund (the "Value Fund") and the Third Avenue International Value Fund (the "International Value Fund"), and the shareholders of the International Value Fund, of an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization providing for the transfer of the International Value Fund's assets to the Value Fund in a tax-free exchange for shares of the Value Fund and the assumption by the Value Fund of the International Value Fund's stated liabilities, the distribution of such shares of the Acquiring Fund to Fund shareholders and the subsequent termination of the International Value Fund (the "Reorganization").
    In anticipation of the Reorganization, effective on or about September 28, 2017 (the "Sales Discontinuance Date"), the International Value Fund will be closed to any investments for new accounts. Shareholders of the International Value Fund as of the Sales Discontinuance Date may continue to make additional purchases and to reinvest dividends and capital gains into their existing International Value Fund accounts up until the time of the Reorganization.
    If the Boards approve the Agreement, a Prospectus/Proxy Statement with respect to the proposed Reorganization will be mailed prior to the meeting to International Value Fund shareholders. The Prospectus/Proxy Statement will describe the Value Fund and other matters. Investors may obtain a free copy of the Prospectus of the Value Fund by calling 1-800-443-1021...
  • Wasn’t September Supposed To Be A Bad Month For Stocks?
    When I asked Siri for a market report driving today she answered: "Not much happening. Dow's up just a tad by 66 points". Siri's neither real nor a reliable indicator. But does point to how little a 50 or 100 point change represents today. I haven't the foggiest idea where we're going (pretty normal).
    Old saying about "Bulls make money. Bears make money ... " ?
  • Are You Superstitious When It Comes To Mutual Fund Investing?
    Hmmm ... Generally not superstitious. But have a thing about the number 13. Might date back to the ill-fated Apollo 13 which launched @13:13 CST on April 11, 1970 and experienced a catestrophic explosion on April 13. http://www.apollo-13.com/no13.html
    When given a choice, I avoid 13 in all manners. I'd never open a new mutual fund account for $13,000. Whereas $12,500 or $14,000 would be fine. Same would apply to booking the 13th floor at a hotel or the number of tomatos I might purchase.
    I won't let that phobia interfere with higher priorities. On a flight to London this fall I booked seat 13A in both directions (and not sweating it). Put simply, it was the best available seat at the price I wanted to pay. Have to wonder if other passengers with a stronger aversion to 13 than I might have earlier "passed" on this choice seat.
    ---
    Thomas Paine: "I have as little superstition in me as any man living ..."
  • Are You Superstitious When It Comes To Mutual Fund Investing?
    Hi @Maurice
    I've found, more often than not; that I am on vacation or otherwise and without electronic access when some events took place or were pending taking place that would have likely caused us to have some holdings rotated.
    As to your FSICX voodoo.....
    Performance chart beginning 1999. 1999 and early 2000's was a bit slow on the return side, but long term, excluding the 2008-2009 market melt/several months (HY bond holdings), tis not a bad bond fund.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FSICX&n=4707&O=011000
    FSICX vs PTTRX performance (or another long term multi-sector bond fund of one's choice)
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=FSICX&region=usa&culture=en_US
    FSICX composition
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/31638R303
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Wasn’t September Supposed To Be A Bad Month For Stocks?
    FYI: For all the talk about how bad a month September has historically been for US equities, this September surely isn’t fitting the mold. Through Monday afternoon, the S&P 500 has gained 1.4%, which is a good return for the first half of any month, let alone the month that has historically been weaker than any other month. Looking a little bit deeper, though, it should be noted that the first half of September has historically been considerably stronger than the second half of the month. The chart below shows a distribution of the median returns for every stock in the S&P 500 during the first half of September over the last ten years. As you can plainly see, well over half of the stocks in the index have seen gains during the first half of the month; 359 to be exact. Overall, the median return for each stock in the S&P 500 is 1.02% with Ulta Beauty (ULTA) leading the way higher with a median gain of 18.43%, while Advanced Auto Parts (AAP) brings up the rear falling 3.07%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/wasnt-september-supposed-to-be-a-bad-month-for-stocks/