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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bill Gross's Investment Outlook For July: Curveball
    In this case, mainly because he never just comes out with a call ("foreign sovereigns look like the place to be the next 15 years or so", "everyone thinks Treasuries are going up, but oil prices tell a different story so we're positioning ourselves differently", etc.) -- he wraps his "read" up in some pseudo-literary naval gazing.
    And, among the would be poets out there, he's the worst.
  • Bill Gross's Investment Outlook For July: Curveball
    FYI: Kill the Umpire”, the fan cried to open the 1996 baseball season in Cincinnati, and 7 pitches later, the man behind the plate, John McSherry, was dead, all 320 pounds of him screaming for more oxygen to feed his struggling heart. He’d been killed by his poor health, by a billion molecules of sink-clogging cholesterol that fed on his coronary artery and sucked up his life’s blood like a vampire at midnight. The next day Howard Stern had characteristically railed that the antidote was obvious. It was the same for all fat people: “DON’T EAT”, he howled. As if the ump hadn’t known. The fact was he couldn’t stop. He loved the taste of food – every sugary, starchy, carbohydrated morsel. The first bite was an ecstasy, as was the last, and everything in between. The man, it seemed, was a Cuisinart with 4 limbs.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://en-us.janushenderson.com/advisor/curveball/
  • Homebuilder Optimism Up In Smoke
    here in Central Ohio the building boom is going full speed. Builders cannot put up new single-family, apartment, and condo homes fast enough. Even the massive apartment complexes are mostly leased before they open. We are having bidding wars over existing homes on the market, and even in my own neighborhood, home sale prices have pushed up values some 20-30% in the last year alone.

    Do you sense that this is (somewhat) the case in Springfield and Dayton too?
    I am less enthusiastic about those two smaller cities. Springfield, especially, is still suffering economically from several major industrial employers leaving. The folks I know that live there all commute outside the area for work, either going east to Columbus or west and south to Dayton and Cincy. Dayton is looking a bit better, but the city and area relied on NCR, GM and other auto industry so heavily that it was crushed during the recession. It does seem to be coming back, but nothing close to the boom that is going on in Columbus. The suburban Dayton area has really grown, while the city itself continues to lose population, down almost 50% from its 1970's high.
  • World Allocation Fund With Low Risk
    Hello,
    In my global hybrid sleeve found in the growth & income area of my portfolio I hold two world allocation funds CAIBX and TIBAX. The third fund PMAIX is classifed as an asset allocation (30% to 50% equity) fund but it has good weightings towards foreign securties (both stocks and bonds). I look for good yield generation from most of my funds and these three funds deliver with yields of 3.31%, 3.73% and 4.67% respectively. Year-to-date the sleeve as a whole is up about 9.2% and accounts for about a 25% weighting in the growth and income area which in turn makes up about 35% of the overall portfolio. The portfolio itself has had a year-to-date investment return of about 9.0% while, my bogey, the Lipper Balanced Index has returned about 8.3%.
    Currently, my three hybrid sleeves consists of 19 funds and when combined make up about 45% of my overall portfolio
    Old_Skeet
  • World Allocation Fund With Low Risk
    I happened to know the PMs behind GAOSX. this is a true global all, with at least 40% non-US exposure across various asset classes. They tactically stopped hedging majority of their currency exposures earlier this year and bought calls on Eurostoxx which contributed to outperformance. The lead PM is thinking outside the box and has a global multi-asset platform at his fingertips. For what it's worth of course.
    Separately, by skimming the previus responses, i see that many continue to advocate for MAPIX. for the full disclosure, i like and use this fund. Having said this, i think Will's goal is currently to derisk. he is using this tremendous equity run up to switch from a 100% equity fund to a 60/40 risk profile of a diversified global offering within his sizable portfolio. There is truly nothing wrong with that. The larger one's nest egg is, the less risk one could and should take to achieve his/her goals.
    Best wishes, fa
  • @BobC
    Thank you, gentlemen. While downside protection is important, i cant pay for large cash holdings within a fund as we manipulate cash levels on the overall portfolio level.
    @Old_Joe: the nose belongs to my 11 and a half yo airedale. He is around and kicking. We added a smaller one in recent years..belonging to a Scotty. I havent been around the Boards much as I crossed to the dark side and joined the "retail" world by becoming an advisor. Hope all is well with you and the sunny state of California!
  • Barry Ritholtz: Stock-Brokerage Industry Enters The Twilight Years
    FYI: I begin today’s column with a mea culpa: I have been expecting the imminent death of the brokerage industry for about 20 years. This is something I have been dead wrong about.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-19/stock-brokerage-industry-enters-the-twilight-years
  • Josh Brown: I Bought My First Bitcoin
    @Maurice
    They both live in glass houses.
    False equivalency. Read the U.S. News & World Report story. And I'm sorry if you're going to assume that anything published in U.S. News is false and part of the liberal media conspiracy, there really is no point in talking. It's respectably existed since 1933.
    From the story:
    Compare and contrast all of this with the much-maligned Clinton Foundation. Let's be clear: Whatever you think of the Clintons, their foundation has been a force for good. The signature example: Nearly 12 million people around the world have more affordable access to AIDS/HIV medication at least in part because of the organization. (See Colby political scientist Laura Seay's tweet-storm on the topic for a ground-level view of the foundation's work.) And it does a lot more – Inside Philanthropy's David Callahan has a good explainer here cataloging the foundations causes. (And contra right-wing talking points, 89 percent of its expenditures go to charity.)
    By contrast, Trump's foundation gave less than $10,000 to the Police Athletic League, bought a giant picture of himself and gave $25,000 to Attorney General Pam Bondi to curry favor with her.
  • Josh Brown: I Bought My First Bitcoin
    @Maurice
    Glass house, stone:
    https://usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-09-16/the-clinton-foundation-vs-the-trump-foundation
    Also, the rationale that other people do bad things and therefore I can do bad things is about the oldest lie in the book. Do you really want to profit off an investment used by drug dealers to launder money?
  • Is Investing In Senior Housing Still a Good Idea?
    A demographic of baby boomers has allowed seniors housing to become a winning investment—both in commercial real estate (CRE) overall and healthcare realty specifically. And there are plenty of reasons. Research shows that 100,000 units must be built each year through 2040 to meet anticipated demand. When you consider seniors housing is also recession-resistant, many would call this investment a basic “no-brainer.”
    Over the past decade, seniors housing has outperformed every other asset classes of CRE. But recently, some investors have expressed concern over rising interest rates and potential overbuilding. In 2016, the occupancy rates declined 0.5+% (to 89.3%), leading some to wonder if oversupply could potentially impact returns in the long term. In fact, some sub-sections of the seniors housing market have already been impacted, specifically skilled nursing.
    Which begs the question: is seniors housing still a wise investment? Research indicates “yes.” A survey from CBRE showed nearly 60 percent of U.S. investors actually plan to increase their seniors housing portfolios this year. And that’s an increase from less than 50 percent last year. Many seem confident a wide range of opportunity still lies in the seniors housing sector—if investors can keep the following factors top of mind.
    Consider Secondary Markets: It may be true that some primary markets face a potential oversupply, but many secondary and even tertiary markets hold lots of potential for both renovation and new construction. Indeed, a significant portion of supply across all markets is outdated, leaving room for much-needed enhancements, such as making spaces more comfortable and sociable for seniors.
    Do the Research: There is no substitute for doing your own due diligence. Whether you’re looking to invest in private equity or a REIT, make sure your chosen fund manager is knowledgeable, experienced, and aware of current market conditions. Request a portfolio showing past investments and new deals, as well as historical returns. Lastly, ensure that the fund manager takes time to consider each individual investment, analyzing existing demographics and competitors before committing to any specific project.
    Be Informed: Keep an eye on current issues to make sure the fund or REIT you select is on trend. Skilled nursing declined this last year, and memory care has likewise seen impact in some areas from overbuilding. Meanwhile, independent living is now a favorite, which is off-trend from previous years. In fact, independent living reached a seven-year high in occupancy rates closing 2016—so high that it was actually highest absorption rate in a single quarter since NIC started collecting data back in 2006. The best fund managers will be aware of these trends.
    Ask Lots of Tough Questions: A strong fund manager will likely tell you that project operators play a large role in ensuring the success of a given investment—sometimes even the most significant. Dan Brewer, the Chief Fund Manager at SeniorLivingFund.com, says, “The operator is hands-down the most important player in our investment decisions. They can make or break any opportunity, regardless of market or demand.” In other words, don’t shy away from asking who your fund manager may be working with, how long they’ve worked with one another, and to what outcome.
    Keep It Real: As with all investment opportunities, market conditions like interest rates or political issues, can impact returns. Although seniors housing has seen unparalleled growth in the past 10 years, it’s reasonable to think the industry will keep growing—if only at a slower rate.
    The great news about seniors housing: the opportunities are just beginning. The current wave of seniors now seeking care is the first of many to come. Research shows our 75+ population will likely grow at rates above current inventory growth rates (3.1 percent) until 2021. Indeed, for the 75-79 age group, growth could be as high as 5.7 percent. That leaves lots of room to grow the sector—and lots of room for solid returns for smart investors.
  • Josh Brown: I Bought My First Bitcoin
    FYI: So you are now free to dump all of your crypto-currencies because this surely marks an all-time top.
    But I thought I’d mention it anyway.
    For those who are curious about why and how, I’ll just say the following…
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/07/18/i-bought-my-first-bitcoin/
  • World Allocation Fund With Low Risk
    @Crash @Ted
    RPGAX a fund of funds???
    24% of holdings are other TRPrice funds, yes. But, the fund has 1,361 holdings indicated.
    Hardly a fund of funds, IMO.
    This is a young fund, but the 3 year return is at 5.2%, versus a category average of 2.3%.
    The fund is #13 on a long list of "world allocation" funds.
    Don't own the fund, will not likely ever own the fund; but to claim the fund to be a "fund of funds" indicates light research.
    Dig a little deeper, eh?; lest one gets caught with their pants down.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Q&A With Dennis Gartman, Editor, The Gartman Letter

    I'm sure there are those who do trade on his (and others) recommendations, not understanding many things about the markets or those who pontificate about them on TV. But hey, it's not my money that's being invested in such cases!! :)
    Years ago CNBC had a new program about options trading. Their first-ever guest suggested selling puts on Google when it was around 500/share. I was screaming at the TV for the asinine idea, targetted at retail investors who likely didn't have 500 x 100 = $50,000 cash lying around for when (or if) the stock was put to them and they had to buy.....b/c in a 3-minute piece, you can't also teach folks the intracasies of options-101. The clown simply picked the stock, said it was a good buy, and here's how to profit from it. Thankfully he was never to my knowledge invited back on the program. But I wonder how many people tried to do the trade, or got burned if it went against them, b/c they didn't know the risks of the trade, just got caught up in the possible rewards of it should it work out as intended.
    The part that always bothered me is he'll go on CNBC or do an interview with Barron's and he'll say stuff that's totally true at the moment he says it. Unfortunately he might change his mind overnight and not only doesn't anyone know that but there's not much effort made by these media organizations to be transparent about it other than the standard legal blah-blah disclosures that not many pay any attention to. I guess most people wouldn't trade based on anything he says but I "pity da fool" who does.
  • Homebuilder Optimism Up In Smoke
    FYI: If there’s an economic indicator that gets released these days, taking the under usually ends up being the prudent bet. Today’s release of homebuilder sentiment for the month of July from the NAHB on Tuesday was the latest example. While economists were expecting the headline reading to come in at a level of 67, the actual reading was 64- the weakest reading since November. After a four-month surge post-election, the last four months have seen homebuilder sentiment decline in three of the last four months. Making matters worse, Tuesday’s reading was the weakest relative to expectations since May 2015.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/homebuilder-optimism-up-in-smoke/
  • M*: An Outstanding Large-Cap Fund For Patient Investors: (DODGX)
    "If you look at the fund's trailing SD, you will see it at 18.11 over 10 years, then it drops drastically to 11.41 at 5 years. You think something changed in their investment strategy during that time?"
    Not based on that data alone. Since std dev is a second moment, outliers such as 2008 have a disproportionately large impact on the figures.
    The S&P 500 std deviation also dropped by around 3/8, from 15.21 to 9.56. Do you think something changed in Standard and Poors' Index Committee's selection strategy during that time? (The S&P indexes, unlike those from other companies, are selected by individuals rather than by mechanical algorithms.)
  • LPL Prepares Mutual Fund Platform To Comply With DOL Rule
    I'll preface this by saying that I am not an LPL advisor directly; however, my firm uses LPL as our platform for clients.
    For the $25,000+ account, the fee is actually set by the advisor. The range I see among colleagues is between 1-1.5%. As for the services a client receives, that is going to vary greatly from advisor to advisor based on what kind of practice they are running. But couldn't that be said of nearly any firm! (Our team focuses on asset allocation, risk management and comprehensive planning--we aren't stock/fund pickers really. We mostly use low cost indexed investment options) The platform itself is open-architecture; equity/ETF trades are a few bucks, many mutual funds are NTF (wish they all were), etc.
    I'm right there with you, Bob, that LPL's new mutual fund only platform is bizarre and a step in the wrong direction for smaller clients who often don't have very good options. I sure hope that changes. But I did want to make it clear that LPL also works well for fee-based advisors who run their practices as fiduciaries to their clients. Hope that helps!