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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fund-O-Matic
    I enjoy Max Funds as a quick-take. May not be current and certainly not the full story. I don't know of any other sites that even attempt to evaluate hot money. That has a big effect if you're a long term investor. Killed MFLDX (along with a lot of other problems).
    Added 3/4: (1) I've held mostly the same 8-10 core funds for anywhere from 10-25 years with a few good firms. (2) I'll also take an occasional long-shot (speculative play) on a very badly beaten up fund as I did with OPGSX in September '15 and PRLAX 6-8 weeks ago. These spec plays are not intended to be held more than a few months to a few years - time to bounce a lot higher if the educated guess works out. (Yes - they can also fall, so weighing potential upside and downside is crucial)
    The point here: For neither of the above types of purchases is the opinion of Max Funds, *M or MarketWatch useful or given much consideration. For the first type (core holdings) I want low fees, stable competent management, good service and annual reports that are comprehensive and readable. For the second (speculative plays) I want a fund that's been hammered hard over several years (probably down 25% or more over the last year). And Nobody loves it anymore. Than it's a matter of trying to become educated on the the fund's investments, reasons for its poor performance lately, macroeconomic conditions that might help going forward - and than taking a plunge, usually with only 2-5% of total holdings.
    Sorry so long winded. Guess I've strayed from Max's original point on Max funds. But my point is you need to take all these with a grain of salt. Don't expect them to always point you in the best direction. Use your own pointer.
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    The small cap value universe has been proven academically and empirically to produce alpha premium above the other stock universes over a 90 year period.
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kToqLWLISRk4n4YnSzv1hT5kBN54l5CvhwGgDwJKPJI/edit?usp=sharing
    etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-small-caps-still-outperforming?nopaging=1.
    Investing in the equity markets doesn't have to be complicated and an investor doesn't necessarily need more than a handful of funds representing the equity universe. An investor in the "young" demographic of the investment "lifecycle" ( age 20 - 50 ) can exploit the maximum asset accumulation into retirement phase and beyond, by first building a core position in small cap value, and then over the course of the career, they can diversify into other stock universes ( mid cap growth producing the next best alpha premium and also being somewhat non correlated to value; performance of value and growth trading off performance "leads" over the course of market cycles ( see P. O'Shaughnessy and T. Carlisle).
    Further risk mitigated, maximal asset accumulation has been achieved through the use of small cap value ( and also mid cap growth ) and tactical asset allocation modelling
    https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1pQuBfbPd18ca0G-KiZc5FIWNMx0pNa87INgsLjEwuzY/edit?usp=sharing
    https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1C37CJypoxHWHB09e3g25ewOGjP83wDZhj5j6tlrLJoA/edit?usp=sharing
    This is a new frontier of asset management science.
    (Fortunately or unfortunately) this type of minimal, systematic alpha producing process can be automated and eliminates the need for human, objectively derived allocation decision processes ( "The Robot's Are Coming " )
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    @David & MFO Members: "Over the course of the full market cycle, the small cap fund -inclusive of growth, core, and value - with the highest Sharpe ratio, a measure of whether you're getting compensated for the risks you're taking - is Intrepid. It's #1 of 410. VTSCX" I believe David made a symbol error, it's VSTCX if I'm not mistaken.
    Regards,
    Ted
    M* Ratings % Risk VSTCX:
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/ratings-risk.action?t=VSTCX&region=usa&culture=en_US
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    Hi, Kevin.
    I know. The problem is that small caps (well, stocks) are volatile and I'm rotten at timing the market or making other tactical allocation moves. Mostly I've got too much else going on to spend a lot of time with assessing the Russell 2K's p/e or peg or whatever, and partly I've got a spectacular track record for guessing wrong. As a result, I try to focus my non-retirement portfolio on multi-asset managers; that is, folks who have the freedom to dodge and weave on my behalf. Sometimes that's an overtly multi-asset fund like FPACX or BBALX, sometimes it's a fund with a broad mandate (Seafarer can invest in companies domiciled in the developed world with substantial earnings in the developing one and such stocks represent something like half of the portfolio) and sometimes it's absolute-value guys who say "if it's not a compelling value, I'm sitting on cash."
    There are just a couple focused equity funds (Grandeur Peak, Artisan International Value, Wasatch Microcap Value) where I think the managers are doing something useful and distinctive. On whole, my non-retirement portfolio is about 50% growth (half US, half international) and 50% income (Price Spectrum Income, Matthews Asia Strategic Income, RiverPark Short Term High Yield and so on).
    To be clear: I'm not preaching that that's The One Right Way. It's just what allows me to make a little money, sleep well and focus elsewhere.
    Over the course of the full market cycle, the small cap fund -inclusive of growth, core, and value - with the highest Sharpe ratio, a measure of whether you're getting compensated for the risks you're taking - is Intrepid. It's #1 of 410. VSTCX is about 120th, just behind NAESX and VISVX. Its correlation with those two funds is .99 and .98, respectively. In addition to a higher Sharpe ratio, Intrepid has higher absolute returns over the market cycle (through 1/30/16) than does VTSCX and a substantially lower correlation to the small cap indexes.
    Pinnacle isn't far behind Intrepid at 15th by Sharpe with a much lower correlation to any of the above, though also with lower absolute returns than Intrepid or Vanguard. The Aston fund hasn't been around long enough to have full market cycle data, though its five-year profile is strikingly similar to ICMAX.
    Up-cycles present a different picture and these guys get left in the dust. But since I don't get to invest just during up-cycles, I don't tend to focus there.
    In short, what I find attractive is the combination of higher returns and lower volatility over meaningful market periods.
    David
  • NextShares’ New Product Combines Active Management With ETFs
    I still think this is a solution in search of a problem. This "hybrid that combines what some consider the best parts of the actively managed fund with an ETF" also seems to combine some of the worst attributes.
    Like an ETF (and unlike a mutual fund) you're subject to a bid/ask spread (generally paying more than NAV to buy, and selling for less). And it is subject to broker commissions.
    It does avoid market tracking error (where the ETF price deviates from the underlying portfolio's NAV) by using the end of day NAV - but that also means that the pricing (aside from bid/ask spread) is like a mutual fund. Even if you sell mid-day in a falling market, you'll get the end-of-day price. So from a pricing perspective, ISTM this is the worst of both worlds - the cost of the spread without the attribute of instantaneous pricing.
    The cost difference (vs. the mutual fund) is misleading. The article suggests that the ETMF cost should be lower because it has no 12b-1 fee. But neither does the share class (EIERX) to which it is comparing the ETMF.
    Both ETMF and mutual fund are benefiting from temporary fee waivers, though the mutual fund waiver is greater. Thus the difference in costs is artificially small. The cost benefit of the ETMF (sans waivers) would be larger. However, that just means the even the ETMF would cost more than the stated 0.65% ER, to wit 0.83% - hardly compelling for a large cap blend fund.
  • NextShares’ New Product Combines Active Management With ETFs
    FYI: (This is a follow-up article)
    The mutual fund industry’s latest attempt to deal with the rising threat of the exchange traded fund comes from Eaton Vance (EV).
    On Friday, the Boston fund giant’s subsidiary, NextShares, launched a brand new structured product called an exchange traded managed fund, or ETMF, a hybrid that combines what some consider the best parts of the actively managed mutual fund with an ETF.
    The first ETMF, Eaton Vance Stock NextShares (EVSTC), invests in the same portfolio as $95 million Eaton Vance Stock Fund (EAERX), an equity mutual fund that holds mostly large U.S. stocks. Both are managed by Charles Gaffney. The mutual fund has outperformed the S&P 500 index for the past one-, three- and 10-year periods
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/nextshares-new-product-combines-active-management-with-etfs/
    M* Snapshot EAEFX:
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=EAERX
  • Preferred Stock ETFs For A Low-Yield Environment
    FYI: ETF investors may want to consider preferred stocks as government yields hover near record lows
    •Low inflation helps bond investors generate a higher real yield, or yield after accounting for the inflation bite
    •International government bond yields have been depressed to near zero levels
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etftrends.com/2016/03/preferred-stock-etfs-for-a-low-yield-environment/
  • Investors Pull $600 Million From Pimco Total Return Fund In February
    FYI: The Pimco Total Return Fund, which last year lost its crown as the largest bond fund in the world, kept hemorrhaging money in February, with cash withdrawals of $600 million in the month.
    In January, the fund had an outflow of $1.1 billion.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.reuters.com/article/funds-pimco-outflows-idUSL2N16A29G
  • Consumer Staples ETFs Find Allure as Investors Play Defense
    FYI: In a year in which investors have prized defensive, low volatility assets and sectors, it’s not surprising that the Consumer Staples Select SPDR (NYSEArca: XLP) is one of the best-performing sector exchange traded funds on a year-to-date basis with a gain of nearly 2%.
    XLP’s bullishness this year is a reversal of fortune from late 2015. XLP and rival staples ETFs had their hands full with rising rate-related issues. For example, several of the largest staples names have reported lackluster earnings, blaming the strong dollar for weak overseas currency conversions.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etftrends.com/2016/03/consumer-staples-etfs-find-allure-as-investors-play-defense/
    Click On XLP YTD & Click On Consumer Staples For Holdings
    :http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    @NumbersGal,
    With all due respect to you and David, I continue to see absolutely nothing attractive about ARIVX or ICMAX. With current 82% and 67% cash positions, respectively, an investor in these funds are paying dearly (1.42% and 1.40% ER) for funds primarily investing in cash. And one is therefore deriving the diversifying benefits of owning cash but not small cap value equities.
    For domestic SC exposure, I continue to favor VSTCX and VTMSX, which are both low cost and consistent performers.
    Kevin
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    Deleted my original draft write to this thread when it entered the closed status and was stuck in the land of 1's and 0's.
    No longer in the mood to comment on the March commentary.
    See some of you on the other side.
  • Vanguard Unveils New International ETF Options
    FYI: The Vanguard Group is expanding its line of popular dividend exchange traded funds to include two international options that mirror U.S.-focused offerings.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etftrends.com/2016/03/vanguard-unveils-new-international-etf-options/
    Vanguard Press Release:
    https://pressroom.vanguard.com/press_release/Press_Release_Vangaurd_launches_international_dividend_index_funds_030216.html
  • Have some money for a purchase in the next 2-3 years ...
    Better to Inquire about investment ideas @ M F O than some of these advisors !
    There's a phrase no one wants to read in a sweeping report about the financial advisers who handle their savings: economy-wide misconduct.
    By Bloomberg News | March 1, 2016 - 4:28 pm EST
    A new working paper by business school professors at the University of Chicago and University of Minnesota found that 7% of financial advisers have been disciplined for misconduct that ranges from putting clients in unsuitable investments to trading on client accounts without permission. That's a troubling mark for an industry that relies on the trust of clients. And some large, well-regarded firms have misconduct records that far exceed the average.
    Many fired advisers end up moving to firms that have higher rates of misconduct than their previous employer did, and they become repeat offenders. "Prior offenders are five times as likely to engage in new misconduct as the average financial adviser," the study found.
    "This is eye-opening and suggests not only that some firms have a high tolerance for misconduct on the part of their employees, but that their very business model is to attract the broker who can generate high revenue at the cost of repetitive disciplinary violations," said John Coffee, a professor at Columbia Law School in New York. "FINRA needs to focus on this."
    Many cases of misconduct arose around the issue of the "suitability" of investments. That would mean, for instance, that an adviser should not suggest that a 75-year-old client put most assets in a high-fee, aggressive-growth mutual fund. Often, the report found, investments involved in reported misconduct cases were insurance products.
    The first-of-its-kind study names names, listing 10 advisory firms with the highest misconduct rates, as well as those with the lowest.
    image
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160301/FREE/160309989?template=printart
    @Shostakovich
    I own this fund in the Global Bond space you mention.DHGAX
    Assets for the Fund
    $2,133,975,285
    Holdings
    206
    Dividend Frequency
    Quarterly
    Morningstar Category
    World Bond
    Lipper Category
    Global Income
    Average Maturity
    8.30 Years
    Duration
    6.83 Years
    30-Day Yield (as of
    1/31/16)
    Class A 1.27%
    Class I 1.62%
    TOP TEN SECURITIES1
    Australian Govt 3.25% 10/21/2018 10.04%
    Australian Government 3.25% 04/21/
    2025 4.43%
    Canadian Government, 2.25% 06/01/
    2025 3.79%
    Japan (30 Yr Issue) 1.7% 09/20/2044 3.47%
    Buoni Poliennali Del Tes 2.36142% 09/15/
    2024 2.66%
    France (Govt Of) 1% 11/25/2025 2.57%
    Canadian Government, 2.5% 06/01/2024 2.45%
    Canadian Government 1% 08/01/2016 2.11%
    U.S. Treasury Note 1.75% 12/31/2020 2.04%
    Buoni Poliennali Del Tes 1.05% 12/01/
    2019 2.03%
    https://public.dreyfus.com/documents/compliancedocs/factsheets/monthly/6940.pdf
  • These ‘Dividend Aristocrat’ Stocks Have Risen Up To 24% A Year For A Decade: NOBL/SDY
    What charts? Growth of $10k, M*, looking at curve smoothness over time.
    Do it yourself.
    Takes into account splits, of course.
    I set start point as inception of SHW, hence the year.
    Log scale does its own smoothing as a function of increase, sort of, as I note.
    Did not say anyone was better than SHW. It was you who used the characterization stabler.
    I love hindsight with individual stocks, cocktail party talk about CVS, Costco, Nike, Apple, Altria, B-H, the ones I already mentioned (nobody on earth knows who Barnes Group is).
    You may well have a winner, and you have the courage of your convictions, yay. But do they have a moat? Is there barrier to entry overseas? Why not Chinese paint?
    Anyway, check this out:
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/01/29/the-best-stock-over-the-last-30-years-youve-never-heard-of-it/
  • These ‘Dividend Aristocrat’ Stocks Have Risen Up To 24% A Year For A Decade: NOBL/SDY
    Ain't hindsight something.
    As for stabler, B is smoother since 1972, sort of, as are PG and JNJ. With a log scale (M*) it's less easy to detect smoothness and the opposite, of course.
    SHW has had this remarkable rise the last six years, so there is that. Do you think in a greener world going forward that this will continue? Is that how you yourself are betting?
    What charts are you looking at? It's not a close call or a fair fight with the issues you mentioned...I guess a case MIGHT be made for JNJ in terms of the ride, but its avg return for the past 15 years is 6.8%. SHW is 18%. I'm really not sure what you're looking at. You mention 1972, that's a long time ago. I assume you realize that SHW split 4 times since 1981; 1 share bought then for $35 now equals 32 shares at $281. You'll look a long time for something better than that coupled with a max draw down for the past 15 years of under 8%. As to the future, gun to head to pick one place to put my money for the next 15, SHW may be it. They're going to sell a lot of paint in China and the ROW. And I say all of this having nothing currently invested in the stock, regrettably. That will change at the next opportunity.
  • These ‘Dividend Aristocrat’ Stocks Have Risen Up To 24% A Year For A Decade: NOBL/SDY
    Ain't hindsight something.
    As for stabler, B is smoother since 1972, sort of, as are PG and JNJ. With a log scale (M*) it's less easy to detect smoothness and the opposite, of course.
    SHW has had this remarkable rise the last six years, so there is that. Do you think in a greener world going forward that this will continue? Is that how you yourself are betting?
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    @NumbersGal, hi!
    Thanks for the question. By happenstance, Eric C dropped me a note shortly after we published (in reality, while I was in the produce section of my local Hy-Vee grocery, foraging). We profiled ARIVX shortly after launch and again a couple years later. My general take has been that Eric has more discipline and more steady resolve than just about anyone. We'll catch up in the next week or so.
    Eric's performance has been remarkable given that he's now at 80% cash. That's been a brilliant positioning in the past year since it's given him great relative performance in the face of a small cap bear. My hesitation is that, even with a bear, the cash level keeps rising which seems counter-intuitive.
    The comparison with ICMAX is close but, over the past five years (Eric's been gone five years and five months), it's not entirely one-sided. Intrepid comes out ahead on a bunch of risk measures (recovery period from maximum drawdown, downside deviation, Martin ratio, Sortino ratio, Ulcer Index) while River Road pulls ahead on others (maximum drawdown, standard deviation, Sharpe). Annual returns are within 0.1% of each other.
    In any case, I wouldn't rule ARIVX out and we are going to find time to talk before my new term gets crazy.
    As ever,
    David
  • These ‘Dividend Aristocrat’ Stocks Have Risen Up To 24% A Year For A Decade: NOBL/SDY
    Why not just buy SHW and go home? I'd bet that simple paint stock beat 95%+ of all mutual funds and hedge funds over a 15 year period (almost 18% avg return). Up in 2008-2009. Biggest loss under 8%. Unreal. Anyone know a better more stable issue?