Hi Alex,
Based on your advanced age, you impose a high target returns requirement, a high hurdle that gets higher each year as your RMD increases annually, on your portfolio.
I completely agree with MFOer msf with regard to scoping the problem by consulting the government RMD tables which are tied to life expectancy.
Numerous academic and industry retirement studies have concluded that a withdrawal rate of about one-half your RMD goal is a doable target that results in high portfolio survival odds over extended timeframes. The usual outcome from Monte Carlo simulations is that a 4% drawdown over a 30 year retirement period generates portfolio survival odds that are in the 95% and higher range.
Given your age, the anticipated portfolio survival timeframe is more like
15 years. This shortened period changes the calculus considerably. Some additional calculations are needed.
Nowadays, these calculations are easily and rapidly done with some simplifications that should not significantly impact any conclusions from the analyses. Since learning to fish is more useful than being gifted a fish, I suggest you do the analyses yourself.
One tool to do a respectable Monte Carlo analysis can be found on the MoneyChimp website. Here is a direct Link to the Monte Carlo calculator on the helpful site:
http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/volatility/montecarlo.htmPlease exercise it to get an informed feeling for the likelihood of a successful accomplishment of your goals.
For a representative portfolio with an 8.5% annual average return and a standard deviation of
12%, a survival likelihood of 98% is anticipated for a
15 year period. If that period is extended to 20 years, the portfolio survival likelihood decreases to 86%. If the portfolio volatility is increased from
12% to
15% annually, the portfolio survival probability is deceased from 98% to 93% for the
15 year timeframe.
Parametric analyses like these help an investor to get a feel for the soundness of his plan. These general cases seem like attractive potential outcomes from a portfolio survival perspective. However, note that MoneyChimp does not provide the end value of the portfolio. If a single dollar remains in the portfolio after the designated period, MoneyChimp scores that as a portfolio survival instance.
If you want more detail, please give the Portfolio Visualizer version of Monte Carlo a test run. Here is a Link to that site:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/This excellent website will allow you to back-test generic and specific portfolio asset allocations, and also to do a Monte Carlo simulation that outputs portfolio survival odds and average portfolio end wealth values.
For one test run, Portfolio Visualizer yields a 96% survival likelihood for the
15 year period with a 50% US Stocks, 25% Large Cap Value, and 25% International Stock portfolio allocation. A 37,000 dollar average annual drawdown rate was assumed.
The median portfolio end balance was
1.
1 million dollars, and both the 25 percentile and 75 percentile end values were provided. Since these are Monte Carlo simulations, results will change a little with each running of the code.
These estimates were done using historical base rate returns. Given the current investment environment, you might want to do the simulations using slightly more muted market return projections. You can input your own predictions and do some sensitivity scenarios.
If you don’t like the specific outcomes, these Monte Carlo tools allow you to play endless what-if options to explore allocations that might improve the projected results. The work is easy and even fun. Enjoy.
I edited to convert my original post from MRD to RMD. Sorry for the nomenclature error.
Best Wishes.