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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • John Oliver says these retirement savings mistakes could really mess you up
    What caught my attention in the article was the combo:
    John Hancock-sponsored plan charged asset management fees of 1.69 percent
    JH is an insurance company; it is selling annuities as retirement plans ((all the footnotes on the 401(k) page describe annuities).
    http://www.johnhancock.com/products/401k.html
    The annuity wrapper fees are used to get the participants to pay all the fees for administering the plan. That's so the employer doesn't pay a share of the fees, which makes it an easy sale to employers, especially small ones.
    Watch carefully, and you'll see that 1.69% is exclusive of funds' ERs (i.e. asset management fees).
  • John Oliver says these retirement savings mistakes could really mess you up
    Mostly old news here but I'm hoping Ted will be on the lookout for an Oliver amusing video to follow. Now I have to go find and watch the one on 'medical debt'. Is it just me or is this guy one of the funniest comics going.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/john-oliver-says-retirement-savings-133039903.html
  • How Emerging Markets Are Faring In A Post-China Economy
    There have been "questionable" periods for equities over the markets' histories. Yet, over a long sample, the use of a bi annual switching strategy involving investing in: 1) a blend of Emerging small cap and U.S. Small cap value from Nov 1 to May 1 and 2) the utilities sector / cash * from May 1 to Nov 1, has produced a risk adjusted 380bp CAGR return premium vs. buy & hold Emerging small cap / small cap value blend. The addition of U.S, Large Cap to the blend has also produced returns premium.
    CAGRs
    1954 - 2016
    Blend / Utilities, cash = 20.9% vs. Buy & hold 17.1%
    1954 - 1983
    18.7% vs. 17.9%
    1984 - 2016
    22.3% vs. 15.6%
    2000 - 2016
    17.8% vs. 11.6%
    % of 5 year rolling CAGR periods > 100% ( 1954 - 2016 ) = 79%
    % of 5 year rolling CAGR periods 50% - 100% = 14%
    no losing 5 year rolling CAGR periods
    * Application of a "Risk profile" variable determining forward year's equity market "risk". High Risk profile year = allocate to cash May 1 - Nov 1
    High risk years falling in sample: 1956, 1962, 1969, 1974, 1978, 1981, 1982, 1990, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2015, 2016
  • John Waggoner: Mutual Fund Born During Great Depression Proves The Value Of Buy-And-Hold
    FYI: If you want to convince your clients that doing nothing is sometimes the best thing to do, point them to Voya Corporate Leaders Trust (LEXCX).
    Now in its 81st year, the fund has beaten the Standard and Poor's 500 stock index the past 15 years, according to Morningstar, the Chicago investment analyst. Voya Corporate Leaders is up an average 7.75% a year, vs. 5.58% for the S&P 500 index. Voya proudly proclaims on its website that the fund has beaten the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average "for over 40 years."
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160610/FREE/160619995?template=printart
    M* Snapshot LEXCX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/LEXCX/quote.html
    Lippper Snapshot LEXCX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/LEXCX
    LEXCX Is Ranked #60 In The (LCV) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-value/voya-corporate-leaders-trust-fund/lexcx
    Oldest Mutual Funds:
    http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/oldestmutualfunds.asp
    A Brief History Of The Mutual Fund:
    http://www.investopedia.com/articles/mutualfund/05/mfhistory.asp
  • How Emerging Markets Are Faring In A Post-China Economy
    FYI: Emerging market economies have had a tough go of it lately. China’s market collapse left a void in the commodities space – a space that developing countries rely on for growth. According to the World Bank, emerging market economies have been set back decades as a result.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://mutualfunds.com/news/2016/06/10/how-emerging-markets-are-faring-in-a-post-china-economy/
  • Morningstar conference: the Day Three agenda
    Q MFO Members: David said, "Thereafter, the long drive west to Iowa." Dan Ryan Expressway south to I-57, continue south to I-80, I-80 west to Davenport Ia, about a three hour thirty minute trip. Made this trip many many times, only I would cross the Mississippi River on I-80 then north to Dubuque Ia. on route 61.
    Regards,
    ted
  • discussion topics for Teresa Kong, Matthews Asia Strategic Income and Credit Opportunities?
    @Crash
    Total return since inception (Nov, 2011) indicates about a 3.6% annualized total return rate.
    I don't suspect this will change much between now and Nov. 2016. The 5 year total will reflect the current status, + or - a tenth %.
  • Morningstar conference: the Day Three agenda
    Last day!
    9: Abhay Despande, ex First Eagle and now Centerstone funds, which appear to be the same strategies in small packages
    11:40: panel on international managers with capacity. Two of the three are Andrew Foster and Rupal Bhansali.
    1: Rupal Bhansali, Ariel International and Global. Both Ed and Mr. Foster are impressed with her work, her portfolios and intellect. I was encouraged to seek her out, so I did.
    2: lunch with Ed and Charles, and our annual planning retreat.
    Thereafter, the long drive west to Iowa.
    If you've got questions for the folks I'm meeting, please do let me know.
    As ever,
    David
  • Get Real: Billions Set To Pour Into Real-Estate Investments
    Hi @ Crash,
    Seems as though you have "doubled down" in real estate? Your position (12.5%) computes to better than five times what the Index currently holds (2.4%) and doubles what I hold. I wonder what your weightings are in each of the other minor sectors of materials, communication services and utilities?
    Hey ... Is Xray currently working for you? It is not for me! And, has now been broken for about a week now. The said ... They might not even realize that it's not working (no system checks).
  • Get Real: Billions Set To Pour Into Real-Estate Investments
    Late last week, the 10-year sunk to under 1.7%. German 10-year was yielding some ridiculous number, like .0003. Given the tie between interest rates and mortgages and Real Estate, I suppose this does bode well---- even if the fundamentals are all out of kilter......In reply to @Old_Skeet, I'm holding 12.5% in Real Estate. It is a global spread, with almost all of it in TRGRX, but surely a bit in some of my other holdings. (M* X-Ray, just now.) Also heavy in Financials, Industrials and Health Care. (Oops! I'm the one always preaching to get the profit-motive OUT of healthcare! Ouch.)
  • Morningstar conference: the Day Two agenda
    Dear friends,
    Day Two is always a bit challenging.
    8: Cliff Asness of AQR and Rob Arnott of Reseach Affiliates riff on "the big picture" questions as the General Session speakers.
    9: John Bragg and Steve Scruggs, Queens Road Value and Queens Road Small Cap Value. We'll likely chat about the recent reopening and why you'd do it in a market they're skeptical of.
    11: Shannon Ericson, LMCG International Small Cap fund and LMCG Global Market Neutral Fund. The global market neutral fund has a, well, global portfolio, which strikes me as an interesting twist.
    12: Mark Travis and Matt Berquist, Intrepid Capital and the Intrepid Funds. Mr. Travis is the firm's founder, president and CEO, as well as a portfolio manager. Matt is one of the marketing/media guys.
    1:45: David Marcus, Evermore Global Value. He's a "special situations" investor with roots in the Mutual Series funds. Really thoughtful guy, wonderfully diverse experiences.
    2:30: Matt Shaver, Lyndhurst Partners. Lyndhurst is a sort of marketing firm that tries to identify a handful of small, distinctive firms and help them succeed.
    3:30: Mike Dzialo, founder of Managed Asset Portfolios and manager for Catalyst/MAP Global Capital App fund and Catalyst/MAP Global Total Return. Tiny, solid 3-year numbers.
    5: John Blau, Poplar Forest. Mr. Blau had been president of Oppenheimer Asset Management and now leads to outreach/marketing effort for Mr. Harvey and the Poplar Forest funds. I'll be likely to ask about the relatively new Outliers fund.
    7: Dinner with Gregory Nathan, manager of FPA US Value (formerly Perennial) since September 2015. It's been an ugly first year and the fund has surprising low cash holdings (10%) by FPA standards. I'll be interested to hear what he has to say.
    In any case, if you have topics you'd like me to pursue with any of these folks, please do let me know. I'll learn what I can on your behalf.
    As ever,
    David
  • discussion topics for Andrew Foster
    Dear friends,
    Charles and I will have dinner Monday with Andrew Foster, "the seasoned and skilled skipper" (saith Morningstar) of Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income.
    Emerging Markets High Yield Bond - What is his 1 yr, 5 yr, 10 yr outlook.
  • Morningstar conference: the Day One agenda
    For what interest it holds, Charles and I will be at Morningstar throughout the conference. Ed returns to town Tuesday afternoon and will join us Wednesday. By my count, I'll be meeting with 11 managers or teams over two days plus a handful of other thoughtful and interesting folks. I'll try to give you a heads-up tonight about the interviews, with an offer to add topics that I ought be raise. Energy permitting, I'll try to share a precis of the day's events each evening.
    Monday's agenda: I'll arrive in Chicago about 1, meet Tadas Viskanta at 2, Michael Hasenstab speaks at 3, Bill Bernstein (whom I really respect, you should check the guy's bio) is one of the three General Session speakers at 4, Teresa Kong of Matthews Asia is at 6 and Andrew Foster, Charles and I will share dinner at 7. It's also good to ease into things with a slow first day.Charles is already in Chicago and, mostly, has a separate set of folks he's pursuing.
    More soon,
    David
  • Get Real: Billions Set To Pour Into Real-Estate Investments
    According to a recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis (6/3) my portfolio holds about 6.1% in real estate while the 500 Index hold about 2.4%. This is about 2.5 times what the Index holds so, with this, I plan to do nothing as some of my funds might be buying (maybe some selling). Anyway, 6% to 9% is all I wish to hold in any of the minority sectors of materials, real estate, communication services and utilities; and, 9% to 12% in any of the majority sectors of consumer cyclical, financial services, energy, industrials, technology, consumer defensive and healthcare. Overall in the minority sectors I am holding a total of 28% which is more than double the 500 Index weightings with the balance being held in the majority sectors (72%). On average this computes to about a 7% weighting in each of the minority sectors and a 10% average weighting in each of the majority sectors.
  • Get Real: Billions Set To Pour Into Real-Estate Investments
    FYI: (This is a follow-up article)
    A big change is coming in how stock indexes measure the market, one that's likely to push tens of billions of dollars into real-estate investments, according to estimates. All that cash could drive further gains for a group of stocks that's already done quite well since the financial crisis. Critics say it could also make an area of the market that they call overvalued even more so.
    The deluge of cash is the result of a re-think by index providers about how they see the market's construction. The Standard & Poor's 500 and other indexes have long split the market into 10 main sectors, such as technology companies or utilities or industrials. After the market closes on Aug. 31, S&P Dow Jones Indices and MSCI will carve out real estate to become the 11th sector.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ebe0d17e6ae747f89df70a400299c2bd/get-real-billions-set-pour-real-estate-investments
  • Vanguard: How America Saves
    FYI: This summer marks the 10th anniversary of the Pension Protection Act of 2006 (PPA)—landmark legislation designed to enhance workers’ retirement security—being passed into law. Coinciding with this milestone, Vanguard today released a special 15th anniversary edition of its How America Saves report with findings that reflect the impact of the law on improving plan construction and participant investing behaviors in defined contribution plans over the past decade.
    How America Saves, Vanguard’s comprehensive annual defined contribution report, has become a premier source of 401(k) data and serves as a resource to Vanguard plan sponsor clients and the industry at large as a plan benchmarking tool. First published in 2000, the report is based on 1,900 plans and 3.9 million participants.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://pressroom.vanguard.com/nonindexed/HAS2016_Final.pdf
  • The Lowdown On Adding Foreign Bonds To Your Portfolio
    Long story short:
    If the market rate for a 1 year bond is 1%, you might buy a bond at:
    - 100 with a 1% coupon (returning 100 in principal in a year),
    - 101 with a 2% coupon (returning 100 in principal in a year), or
    - 99 with zero coupon (returning 100 in principal in a year).
    The current yield on these bonds are roughly 1%, 2%, and 0%. But all of them give you a 1% yield to maturity - you end the year with 1% more than you started.
    That's the idea behind SEC yield - it does for a portfolio with various bonds what yield to maturity (actually yield to worst) does for a single bond. It's more accurate for what you actually earn over time, but doesn't tell you the amount of the next interest check.
    @Crash - the SEC yield is a formula; if it's wrong, it's the fund company that used the formula for its fund that is lying. Regardless, you're right - it's a matter of trust.
  • Closed End Junk Bond Funds
    Bought this in early Dec.Reinvesting monthly divs.Cut div by 5% in Feb.No history of Roc distributions.Watch for weakness if oil prices drop.Non marginable @Schwab
    Babson Capital Global Short Duration High Yield Fund
    (Ticker:BGH)
    Strategy
    Fund will invest at least 80 percent of its managed assets in corporate bonds, loans and other income-producing instruments that are rated below investment grade
    Fund may invest up to 50 percent of its managed assets in bonds and loans issued by foreign companies
    Seek to maintain a weighted average portfolio duration of three years or less
    Weighted Averages
    Market Price ($) $88.57
    Duration (Yrs) 2.33 yrs
    Leverage 23.60%
    Global
    36.57% non-US
    Number of Holdings
    130 issuers
    as of 4/30/2016
    Industry % of Assets
    Oil And Gas 14.09%
    Chemicals, Plastics And Rubber 9.32%
    Healthcare, Education And Childcare 8.16%
    Automobile 6.74%
    Finance 6.56%
    Cargo Transport 4.85%
    Containers, Packaging And Glass 4.67%
    Electronics 4.27%
    Telecommunications 4.26%
    Leisure, Amusement, Entertainment 4.23%
    http://www.babsoncapital.com/assets/user/media/Babson_Capital_Global_Short_Duration_High_Yield_Fund_Factsheet.pdf
    http://www.cefconnect.com/fund/BGH
  • any of these look good?
    Interested to see this. I've been tracking LXP, Lex. Realty Trust. It's on their list. But by now, I'm thinking that it would be smart to wait for a pullback. Too close to 52-week high, yes? Screaming BUY, according to Morningstar. But that is literally just one man's opinion. If anyone's interested to look further, check it out on a page called "Simply Wall Street." You can hunt down any stock there. Limit of 10. When that happens, erase your cache, and it will magically think you are new, when you go back to it. You can construct a stock Watch List there, also.
    http://www.morningstar.com/stocks/XNYS/LXP/quote.html