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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Investors Check Out Of Europe
    FYI: Fund managers are pulling cash out of European equity and debt markets in response to concerns about the continent’s fractious politics, ultralow interest rates and weak banks, and relentless economic malaise.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-check-out-of-europe-1463951411
  • indexing
    You got me poking around on the topic of average...
    "In 1971, Batterymarch Financial Management of Boston independently decided to pursue the idea of index investing. The developers were Jeremy Grantham and Dean LeBaron, two of the founders of the firm. Grantham described the idea at a Harvard Business School seminar in 1971, but found no takers until 1973. For its efforts, Batterymarch won the prize for the "Dubious Achievement Award" from Pensions & Investments magazine in 1972.** It was two years later, in December 1974, when the firm finally attracted its first client.
    By the time American National Bank in Chicago created a common trust fund modeled on the S&P 500 Index in 1974 (requiring a minimum investment of $100,000), the idea had begun to spread from academia—and these three firms that were the first professional believers—to a public forum."

    The Indexing Story:
    vanguard.com/bogle_site/lib/sp19970401.html
    NAESX seems to be the oldest Mutual fund Index offered by Vanguard. Here's what 42 years of indexing (average returns looks like):
    image
  • Want Income? Closed-End Funds Offer Yield, But Beware Of The Risks
    Also, things have gotten to the point, IMO, where it is difficult to accurately take a measure of CEF valuations in the fixed income categories ...
    Heezsafe, I don't think there's ever been, or ever will be, an exact way to pin down CEF valuations. You could look at adjusted price over time, absolute premium/discount to nav, relative (to history) p/d to nav, the recent direction of price vs. the recent direction of nav, on and on, some of the above or all of the above. A CEF investment is entirely subject to the whims of trading ... but then that's not all that different from straight equities.
    I started out thinking people who invest in them must evaluate them primarily in terms of p/d relative to history (since some cef's tend to have relatively persistent premiums, others relatively persistent discounts) but learned that some? many? people who invest in cef's pretty much trade on absolute p/d, so you have to take that into account in your thinking, too.
    On DSL, the 28.5% loss you quote is on price alone, not including div payouts. I didn't take the time to look at since-inception returns, but M* shows a 3y total return of -2% on price (and +1% on nav, FWIW) so the actual TR to an investor is close to flat over that time, with the divs making up for most of the price drop (the div amounts come out of the price when paid out) - same effect as occurs in some HY open-end funds, but magnified by leverage.
    Edit: Just went to the spiffy new Db'line site, and the current fact sheet shows a since-inception total return of -7% (nav = -3%), with a little less than 20% in IG as of the end of Feb.
    I'm not a fan of DSL, and probably would never own it. It's junky, of course leveraged, and you'd need to buy & sell at ~ the right times to make anything out of it. Munis and BBB-ish taxables (like the article says, there aren't many, maybe any, high-quality taxables out there) are easier to deal with. For junk FI, oef's are plenty adventurous for me.
  • Want Income? Closed-End Funds Offer Yield, But Beware Of The Risks
    Also, things have gotten to the point, IMO, where it is difficult to accurately take a measure of CEF valuations in the fixed income categories, as mentioned here:
    http://fmdcapital.com/no-formula-cef-overvaluation/
    Last sentence of the IBD article:
    A third holding is DoubleLine Income Solutions CEF (DSL), which is up 16% this year.
    I haven't kept track of the DoubleLine CEFs for awhile, so I was surprised by what I found when I checked for an update. In contrast to the uniformly good performance of DoubleLine MFs since inception, it looks like we may have our first misstep. DSL may be up 16% YTD, but that is coming off a pretty deep bottom. Current NAV of 18.91 and market price of 17.88. At the February nadir, market price declined to 14.71. Wow. Considering the fund opened at its Apr 2013 inception at 25/share, that "suggests" to me the fund ain't doing a terrific job of holding its value. Buying at inception and selling on Friday, you'd have been looking at a 28.5% loss on those shares. For those who have been invested in DSL recently, has there been any attribution given by DoubleLine in conference calls for the drop in NAV over the 3 year history? Misplaced leverage at the wrong time in the wrong places, on numerous occasions, or what?
    http://www.morningstar.com/cefs/xnys/dsl/quote.html
  • Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund accepts limited purchases
    Yes, very good numbers. However, (1) affiliated with JP Morgan; sorry, not an institution/culture I wish to support, and (2) at $4.6B, moving into territory that has usually (but not always) proven to be the kiss of death for SCV funds, with respect to outperformance.... past performance not predictive of future performance kind-of-thing. I suspect the fund has had its day, so to speak.
  • Want Income? Closed-End Funds Offer Yield, But Beware Of The Risks
    FYI: Looking for income? The yield on 10-year Treasury notes is paltry 1.75%. One-year certificates of deposit pay an anemic 1.11% on average, according to Bankrate.com.
    Closed-end funds (CEFs) can be one solution, with yields averaging 6.73%.
    Their yields range from 6.32% on average for bond CEFs to 7.22% for the average stock CEF, according to Lipper Inc
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/want-income-closed-end-funds-offer-yield-but-beware-of-the-risks/
    M* CEF Fund Returns 9Click On Show All)
    http://news.morningstar.com/CELists/CEReturns.html
  • With the anticipated coming FOMC rate increases looming, what fixed income funds will fair the best?
    Barrons discussed this in today's edition. You should be fine with your bank loan fund. They are yielding 5%. But they have been on a relentless roll since February with but a couple down days ala SAMBX (my favorite) and EVFAX. Even better have been LSFYX, JFIIX and HFRZX which has some exposure to equities. Most are already up 5% YTD. Not sure about why you want short duration. That was last year's trade and the short duration funds in categories such as high yield have been the worst performers in 2016 by a wide margin. I am around 50% in bank loan, 35% in junk munis and 15% in corp junk. If the junk munis falter in even the slightest will be rolling them into more bank loan. Junk munis are way overbought and their recent outperformance has been almost entirely due to tobacco bonds. See link below.
    http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2016/05/19/tobacco-bond-risks-grow-fitch-loses-confidence-pulls-ratings/?mod=BOLBlog
  • RSIVX/RSIIX: Steady increase in the NAV for the last few weeks
    I helped the fund go up as well since I just unloaded it recently. I bought RSIVX in 2013 and never did break even. Really shameful performance for a bond fund.
  • Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund accepts limited purchases
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1047712/000119312516597275/d196409d497.htm
    497 1 d196409d497.htm UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
    UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
    Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund
    (All Shares Classes)
    Supplement dated May 20, 2016
    to the Prospectuses dated December 29, 2015, as supplemented
    Effective as of the close of business on June 17, 2016, the limited offering provisions for the Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund will be revised. As of the Revised Closing Date, the current limited offering provisions in the section titled “How to Do Business with the Funds — Purchasing Fund Shares — What does it mean that the Behavioral Value Fund is publicly offered on a limited basis?” will be removed and replaced with the following disclosure:
    Effective as of the close of business on June 17, 2016, (the “Revised Closing Date”) the Behavioral Value Fund will be offered on a limited basis and investors are not eligible to purchase shares of the Behavioral Value Fund, except as described below. In addition, both before and after the Revised Closing Date, the Behavioral Value Fund may from time to time, in its sole discretion based on the Behavioral Value Fund’s net asset levels and other factors, limit new purchases into the Behavioral Value Fund or otherwise modify the closure policy at any time on a case-by-case basis.
    The following groups will be permitted to continue to purchase Behavioral Value Fund shares. Except as otherwise described below, shareholders of record are permitted to continue to purchase shares; if the shareholder of record is an omnibus account, beneficial owners in that account as of the applicable closing date are permitted to continue to purchase:
    • Shareholders of the Behavioral Value Fund as of December 31, 2015 are able to continue to purchase additional shares in their existing Behavioral Value Fund accounts either through J.P. Morgan Funds Services or a Financial Intermediary and may continue to reinvest dividends or capital gains distributions from shares owned in the Behavioral Value Fund;
    •Shareholders of the Behavioral Value Fund as of December 31, 2015 are able to add to their existing Behavioral Value Fund accounts through exchanges from other J.P. Morgan Funds;
    • Approved fully discretionary fee-based advisory programs, where investment discretion (fund and investment allocations) solely reside with the firm’s home office and where the firm’s home office has full authority to make investment changes without approval from the shareholder, may continue to utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for new and existing program accounts. These programs must be accepted for continued investment by the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor by the Revised Closing Date. Additionally, after the Revised Closing Date, new fully discretionary fee-based advisory programs may utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for program accounts only with the approval by the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor;
    •Other fee-based advisory programs (including Rep as Advisor and Portfolio Manager programs) may continue to utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for existing program accounts, but will not be able to open new program accounts after the Revised Closing Date;
    • Group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b) and 457 plans and health savings account programs (and their successor plans), utilizing the Behavioral Value Fund on or before the Revised Closing Date can continue to invest in the Behavioral Value Fund. Additionally, after the Revised Closing Date, new group employer benefit plans may utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for their accounts only with the approval of the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor; and
    •Current and future J.P. Morgan Funds which are permitted to invest in other J.P. Morgan Funds may purchase shares of the Behavioral Value Fund;
    If all shares of the Fund in an existing shareholder’s account are voluntarily redeemed or involuntarily redeemed (due to instances when a shareholder does not meet aggregate account balance minimums or when participants in Systematic Investment Plans do not meet minimum investment requirements), then the shareholder’s account will be closed. Such former Fund shareholders will not be able to buy additional Fund shares or reopen their accounts in the Fund unless a former shareholder makes his or her repurchase within 90 days of the redemption. Repurchases during this 90 day period will not be subject to any applicable sales charges if such sales charges are normally waived for repurchases within 90 days of the redemption as described in the “Waiver of the Class A Sales Charge” or “Waiver Applicable Only to Class C Shares” sections below. These repurchase restrictions, however, do not apply to participants in groups listed above as eligible to continue to purchase even if the plan, program or fund would liquidate its entire position. If shares are purchased through a Financial Intermediary, contact your investment representative for their requirements and procedures.
    If the Behavioral Value Fund receives a purchase order directly from an investor who is not eligible to purchase shares of the Fund, J.P. Morgan Funds Services will attempt to contact the investor to determine whether he or she would like to purchase shares of another J.P. Morgan Fund or would prefer that the investment be refunded. If J.P. Morgan Funds Services cannot contact the investor within 30 days, the entire investment will be refunded.
    The Behavioral Value Fund reserves the right to change these policies at any time.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT
    WITH THE PROSPECTUSES FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Mark Hulbert: Stop Worrying About The Stock Market Crashing!
    Hi Guys,
    This Hulbert article seems to add further evidence for the frequent appearance of the 80/20 rule that I discussed in a recent MFO exchange. Here is the internal Link to that discussion:
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05/the-sp-500-is-the-worlds-largest-momentum-strategy/
    It's frightful how so many diverse happenings and opinion surveys fall victim (not sure that's the correct word) to the .80/20 or is it the 20/80 Principle?
    Best Wishes.
  • Mark Hulbert: Stop Worrying About The Stock Market Crashing!
    FYI: While the risk of a crash is not zero, you’re almost certainly more worried about a crash than is justified.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.barrons.com/articles/stop-worrying-about-the-stock-market-crashing-1463743491#printMode
  • Ben Carlson: The S&P 500 Is The World’s Largest Momentum Strategy
    FYI: In many ways the stock market makes no sense. You would assume that half of all stocks would outperform a market index while the other half would underperform. Then all you would have to do is pick from the top half and avoid the bottom half, make massive amounts of money and go buy an island somewhere.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05/the-sp-500-is-the-worlds-largest-momentum-strategy/
  • I'm going for it - we are in a declining stock market ...
    Still 80 20 @401k.... probably buy invest real estate if housing down 10-20%
  • I'm going for it - we are in a declining stock market ...
    Here's what wxman123 just said Dox:
    "My gut right now is we drive to new highs against the odds."
    Sounds pretty clear to me.
  • I'm going for it - we are in a declining stock market ...
    , my downside feel is like 55% at the moment.

    A decline of 55%?!!

    Ha, no! I sure hope not. My thought when writing this was that there was only a slightly better chance of a major decline as compared with the current range-bound market or rally to the upside. Taking account of today's action, I'd reduce the odds to 50% or less. Today was the day I would have expected the gutting, but the turn was encouraging. Hit some stops during the worst of it, moving some of my best wins to the side (10% or so of PDT UTG VNQ). My gut right now is we drive to new highs against the odds.
    So, you're saying ... stocks could go up or they could go down.
  • The Motley Fools Gardner’s Investment Philosophy
    @MJG, Thanks for both responses.
    I'm not surprised at the underperformance of individual investors. Higher fees alone account for some of that.
    Not aware of just who Bernstein considers the average investor. Many individuals have small stakes in 401Ks through work or open IRAs on their own with good intentions. Unfortunately, many raid these periodically to cover emergency expenses (for example: by taking out loans from their plan). Others simply don't have time or inclination to monitor their investments, stay informed, or make intelligent decisions.
    If "average investor" were dollar-weighted I think the results would be somewhat better. In other words, those with more skin in the game are likely to pay better attention and do better. Of course, few can beat the indexes over time. The indexes don't have operating expenses, brokerage fees, tax considerations to account for, or advisory fees. They're just that - indexes.
    Before I leave off, MFO is not comprised of average investors. The fact that folks come here tells us they do have an interest in monitoring their investments and becoming better informed. It's a pretty select group to begin with.
    Regards
    PS: Richard Bernstein appeared infrequently on Rukeyser's original Wall Street Week. He tended to be a bit too conservative for my liking in those days. I never viewed him as the sharpest knife in the significant lineup Rukeyser unsheathed weekly back than. But he was by all accounts a competent member of the investment community.
  • Harbor Unconstrained Bond Fund to liquidate
    The reason for shutting down HAUBX looks like simply lack of interest. Same team managing it as PFIUX (which is a little cheaper than the Harbor clone). Somewhat similar lackluster performance over the long term, and just $19M AUM (vs. $4.8B for PIMCO).
    Or as M* write of the PIMCO version, "its record to date has been only middling." 784% turnover (for the Harbor version) to boot.
  • The Motley Fools Gardner’s Investment Philosophy
    Hi Hank Again,
    I meant to incorporate the following reference into my earlier submittal and failed to do so. Here it is now:
    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/rbernstein_081314.php?channel=Smart Beta
    Chart 1 in the Bernstein reference is especially illuminating. It compares the 20 year average annual returns from numerous asset classes against those achieved by individual investors.
    That comparison is devastating for the private investor. Simply put, as a cohort, we stink to high Heaven. That’s an analytic conclusion. From the article: “The average investor even underperformed cash (listed here as 3-month t-bills)!”
    Wow!! Our ineptness is legendary. I do suspect that MFOers do a little better than the average individual investor. That mythical private investor must be horrible in his trade timing decisions.
    Sorry for my omission.
    Best Wishes.
  • I'm going for it - we are in a declining stock market ...
    , my downside feel is like 55% at the moment.

    A decline of 55%?!!

    Ha, no! I sure hope not. My thought when writing this was that there was only a slightly better chance of a major decline as compared with the current range-bound market or rally to the upside. Taking account of today's action, I'd reduce the odds to 50% or less. Today was the day I would have expected the gutting, but the turn was encouraging. Hit some stops during the worst of it, moving some of my best wins to the side (10% or so of PDT UTG VNQ). My gut right now is we drive to new highs against the odds.
  • Harbor Unconstrained Bond Fund to liquidate
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793769/000119312516594564/d359875d497.htm
    497 1 d359875d497.htm HARBOR FUNDS
    111 South Wacker Drive, 34th Floor
    Chicago, IL 60606-4302
    harborfunds.com
    Supplement to Statement of Additional Information dated March 1, 2016
    Harbor Unconstrained Bond Fund
    Harbor Funds’ Board of Trustees has determined to liquidate and dissolve the Harbor Unconstrained Bond Fund. The liquidation of the Fund is expected to occur on July 29, 2016. The liquidation proceeds will be distributed to any remaining shareholders of the Fund on the liquidation date.
    Shareholders may exchange shares of the Fund for another Harbor fund, or redeem shares out of the Fund, in accordance with Harbor’s exchange and redemption policies as set forth in the Fund’s prospectus, until the date of the Fund’s liquidation.
    In order to ready the Fund for liquidation, the Fund’s portfolio of investments will be transitioned prior to the planned liquidation date to one that consists of all or substantially all cash, cash equivalents and debt securities with remaining maturities of less than one year. As a result, shareholders should no longer expect that the Fund will seek to achieve its investment objective of seeking total return.
    Because the Fund will be liquidating, the Fund is now closed to new investors. The Fund will no longer accept additional investments from existing shareholders beginning on July 22, 2016.
    May 18, 2016
    Harbor Bond Fund
    Effective June 1, 2016, Harbor Bond Fund shall have additional flexibility to invest in securities rated below investment grade. The percentage of the Fund’s total assets that may be invested in securities rated below investment grade is increasing from 15% of total assets to 20% of total assets. In addition, the minimum credit quality rating applicable to securities rated below investment grade is being removed.
    Accordingly, effective June 1, 2016, the first paragraph on page 5 within the “Below Investment-Grade Fixed Income Securities” section under Investment Policies is hereby replaced in its entirety with the following:
    Harbor Convertible Securities Fund and Harbor High-Yield Bond Fund invest primarily in below investment-grade securities. Harbor Global Growth Fund, Harbor Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund, Harbor Unconstrained Bond Fund, Harbor Bond Fund and Harbor Real Return Fund may invest up to 5%, 10%, 40%, 20% and 10%, respectively, of its assets in below investment-grade securities, commonly referred to as “high-yield” or “junk” bonds. For all securities other than mortgage-related securities, the investments of Harbor Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund and Harbor Real Return Fund in below investment-grade securities are limited to those rated B or higher by S&P, Moody’s or Fitch Ratings, or, if unrated, determined to be of comparable quality. For mortgage-related securities, these Funds may invest in securities of any credit quality, including those rated below B.
    May 17, 2016
    Investors Should Retain This Supplement For Future Reference