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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How traditional retirement formulas fall short
    ??
    from the article:
    >> That means 1 in every 20 households in the U.S. has more than $1 million in investable assets. Those figures don’t include the value of real estate.
  • my HSA
    I have a general question about the HSA (which is different than the Flexible Savings Accounts, which generally expire in that year). When I was previously employed, my employer switched the health insurance plan offerings to HSA eligible insurance plans that allowed for an HSA account, and that was how I funded the account.
    The previous plans were not HSA eligible.
    Now that I purchase under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans, it says which plans are eligible for an opening an HSA account as the contribution can be deducted against Income.
    So two questions: 1. the health insurance plan has to be eligible to open an HSA account (as specified in the ACA plans - I was told the answer for this is Yes, ie, can only fund an HSA with specific IRS approved health insurance plans.
    2. do you need Earned Income (employer or business income) to fund or add funds to an HSA account?
    For those that have an HSA account, did all you have an HSA eligible health insurance plan when it was opened and funded?
  • Bond Funds
    Hi little5bee.
    Windhaven portfolio is an actual portfolio of ETFs. There are 2 portfolio options, aggressive and moderate. The 2 portfolios are managed by a team of managers. The difference in the 2 seems to be the range of equities each may hold. Off the top of my head, the aggressive portfolio can range from about 25-75% equities, depending on how management perceives the world economic futures. The moderate portfolio has a lesser range of movement. Per my Schwab adviser, these portfolios have never been near the max or min of their ranges. One selling point for me was even the aggressive portfolio held up as well as a moderate balance mutual fund during the last recession.
    The fee for the Windhaven portfolio is 1%. Really no different then the fee you pay for a typical mutual fund portfolio. The portfolio is always up to date (daily) and view-able. You actually get an email every time management makes a buy or sell plus managements reasoning for the buy or sell.
    Don't know if the financial adviser you golfed with is a Schwab advisor, but I do know the adviser gets a referral fee paid to them by Schwab. So, yes they have an intensive to sell.
  • CalPERS: Targeted Investment Programs And Manager Restructure Update
    MARKETS
    Calpers Struggles as Its Return Falls Short
    Largest U.S. pension fund earned 2.4% in fiscal 2015, shy of 2.5% goal
    By TIMOTHY W. MARTIN WSJ
    Updated July 13, 2015 6:43 p.m. ET
    The California Public Employees’ Retirement System fell short of its annual return target in fiscal 2015, as public pensions around the U.S. struggle through one of their worst years since the financial crisis.
    The $301 billion pension fund, the largest in the U.S. by assets and known as Calpers, said it earned 2.4% on its investments for the fiscal year ended June 30 because of a slump in the markets and weak private-equity returns. The performance was just shy of its internal goal of 2.5%. It was Calpers’ poorest year since 2012, when it earned 1%, and down from 18.4% in 2014.
    Pension investments have been challenged this year by low interest rates, uneven market performance and the recovery of the U.S. dollar, which has weakened gains in global stocks.
    Calpers played down the importance of its 2015 performance, noting that the pension fund had topped three- and five-year internal targets with returns of 10.9% and 10.7%. Calpers assumes it will produce annual returns over the long run of 7.5%.
    “We try not to get too fixated or excited about any one-year return,” said Calpers Chief Investment Officer Ted Eliopoulos on Monday at a board meeting. “The strength of our long-term numbers gives us confidence that our strategic plan is working,”
    Mr. Eliopoulos, who was named CIO last year, has moved Calpers to simplify its portfolio and dial down the risk. Those moves include halving the number of external money managers it works with by 2020, plus winding down its hedge-fund program. Reducing risk in its portfolio also could have the effect of missing out on outsize returns.
    “It’s a marathon, not a sprint,” he said. “Nobody expects stable 7.5% or 8% returns year in, year out.”
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/calpers-return-falls-short-of-annual-target-1436802617
    Tough Times For Broadly Diversified Portfolios
    How’s your globally diversified strategy faring these days? Having a tough time? You’re not alone–the headwinds are fierce. For the first time in recent memory, the overwhelming majority of the major asset classes are in the red on a trailing one-year basis. As a result, broadly defined asset allocation strategies are suffering, at least relative to the stellar numbers in recent years.
    Using a set of ETF proxies for the trailing 250-day (1 year) total return, only US stocks, US REITs (real estate investment trusts), and US bonds (broadly defined) are posting gains among the major asset classes. By contrast, the other 11 asset classes are in varying states of loss over that period.... The lesson, of course, is that mean reversion is alive and well when it comes to market (and portfolio strategy) returns.
    With Charts
    image
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/tough-times-for-broadly-diversified-portfolios/
  • my HSA
    Thanks for the info. It bothered me enough that I had no idea what "interesting" meant that I tried searching for Archipelago. Got one hit, on boggleheads:
    If I do not want to invest in those 10 funds, looks like I can open a Saturna Brokerage account and buy mutual funds there. It has access to Vanguard funds via "Saturna Brokerage Archipelago", with some stiff conditions to avoid transaction fee:
    I think NTF Vanguard funds qualifies as "interesting". Seems to be a thing of the past, though.
    (Health Savings Administrators does offer Vanguard funds NTF, but they tack on a 32 basis point ER, and like a 12b-1 in excess of 25 basis points, I regard that surcharge as a load.)
    Regardless, Saturna seems to be one of the least expensive ways of owning an HSA without being restricted to a small list of funds provided by Devenir.
    (Devenir's HSA bank fund list, Devenir's Select Account HSA fund list, etc.)
  • my HSA
    Regarding complexities - each HSA administrator handles things differently - checks, debit cards, ACH transfers. Some will do the medical expense bookkeeping for you. (Similar to mutual fund companies keeping track of cost basis for you - pre-2012 - as a service, but not reporting it to the IRS.)
    Whatever works best for you. Since I view HSAs as savings vehicles, I don't care about the withdrawal mechanism. I just keep track of all my eligible expenses since I opened the account. At some time in the future I'll withdraw a lump sum. I'll be able to justify the withdrawal with those medical expenses, so long as I keep good records.
    Fidelity does offer an HSA account, but only to employer-sponsored plans. I've spoken with them for years about this. They tell me that they've gotten lots of requests, and they keep looking into it. My guess is that these are not especially profitable accounts, so they're not too interested.
    - Accounts tend not to be large (limited contributions, people take withdrawals for expenses)
    - Servicing costs are high (lots of small withdrawals)
    - Regulatory costs are high
    Question about Saturna - they mention Archipelago, but don't provide detail. Last time I checked (a couple of years ago?), this was a smaller list of funds (but more "interesting" as I recall), and required a $10K min. Did Archipelago vanish from Saturna?
  • my HSA
    As an additional funding source have you considered a rollover into your hsa?
    If you haven't already done so and have a tax deferred IRA you can make a one time rollover from your IRA to you hsa. The amount cannot exceed your maximum allowable hsa contribution. For an individual that would be $4350 for 2015 and a but more if you have a family hsa plan.
    Its a nice way to move what would be taxable IRA dollars into tax free hsa. This is not a distribution...its a one time rollover.
    Generally, I don't see this as an advantage, assuming you have outside money with which to fund your HSA. It's basically a shell game. You're taking money out of an IRA and thus losing the deduction you could have had by making a regular HSA contribution. So effectively, you are paying taxes on that IRA rollover.
    If I'm going to pay taxes when I move money from a traditional IRA to another tax-advantaged account, I'd rather pay the taxes (directly) and move it to a Roth, rather than pay the taxes indirectly (by losing a deduction) and move it to an HSA.
    With the Roth, after five years, I can take the money out tax free, no questions asked. With the HSA, questions are asked - what were the medical expenses that this withdrawal is covering?
    On the other hand, with the rollover to the HSA, there's no five year waiting period.
    If you need to pull money out of a traditional IRA and you're under 59.5, then "laundering" it through the HSA gives you a way to do that (if you've got matching medical expenses). That's the only reason I can see for doing a rollover to an HSA.
  • How traditional retirement formulas fall short
    Hi Dex,
    Often the retirement decision is a high anxiety event because of portfolio performance uncertainty. If the retirement depends on a portfolio drawdown, a few bad years can do lasting damage.
    There are plenty of millionaires in the USA. In very rough numbers (it changes so precision gives a false signal), the Millionaires Club is about 5% of US households. Since there are about 123 million households in the US, there are about 6.2 millionaire households. These households are not evenly distributed across the Country. Here is a recent estimate map published in the WSJ:
    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/01/16/where-are-the-u-s-s-millionaires/
    I couldn't tell from the WSJ info if that is net worth (including non investment income e.g. house) or invested assets. Can you?
    Thanks
  • my HSA
    Hi, Maurice -- I would definitely check again at Fidelity, since HSAs have become more popular. The issue I had was that the maintenance fees were quite steep, and with a small account, it really ate into my return. That's basically why I switched to Saturna...but sometimes I wish I were with my prior firm, because I could "trade" the Rydex funds daily. I really did well with that strategy in 2011.
  • my HSA
    @little5bee: I hope PRHSX was one of the funds from Price.
    Regards,
    Ted
    YTD: +24.14%
    2014: +31.94%
    2013: +51.40%
    2012: +31.93%
    2011: +11.01%
    2010: +16.33%
    2009: +32.19%
  • How traditional retirement formulas fall short
    Hi Dex,
    Often the retirement decision is a high anxiety event because of portfolio performance uncertainty. If the retirement depends on a portfolio drawdown, a few bad years can do lasting damage.
    There are plenty of millionaires in the USA. In very rough numbers (it changes so precision gives a false signal), the Millionaires Club is about 5% of US households. Since there are about 123 million households in the US, there are about 6.2 millionaire households. These households are not evenly distributed across the Country. Here is a recent estimate map published in the WSJ:
    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/01/16/where-are-the-u-s-s-millionaires/
    The Southern states are at the bottom of the heap. The likelihood of a millionaires household increases with age, with education, with being married, and with multiple wage earners in a household. No great surprises. About one-third to one-half of millionaires are in households below typical retirement ages. Here is a Link that makes that claim (see chart 4):
    http://taxfoundation.org/article/who-are-americas-millionaires
    However, when retiring, sometimes “A Million is Not Enough”. That’s the title of a book by financial advisor Michael K. Farr. But the real answer depends upon many individual factors that can not be adequately addressed in any book.
    Many of these individual factors can be nicely addressed by exercising retirement planning tools that are accessible on the Internet. I have referenced these resources frequently on MFO, and am not reluctant to do so again. I am a fan of these tools since they help to reduce retirement planning anxiety, especially when Monte Carlo analyses capabilities are integrated into their toolkits.
    One of my favorites is The Flexible Retirement Planner site. Here is the Link:
    http://www.flexibleretirementplanner.com/wp/
    The workhorse tool on this site is its Monte Carlo simulator. Please give it multiple test runs for your specific circumstances. Exploring “what-if” scenarios will increase a user’s understanding of what is influential, what actions are positive, and what options are harmful.
    A more barebones Monte Carlo simulator, with many fewer options, is available on the MoneyChimp website. Here is the Link to it:
    http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/volatility/montecarlo.htm
    The MoneyChimp code inputs can’t be made more simple. You get to choose your own tool. I might test both resources because both are efficient time-wise.
    The bottom-line output from either simulator is the probability of success (avoiding portfolio bankruptcy). There are many actionable options to move the likelihood into an acceptable green-coded probability zone. This is a terrific planning tool, and should make a final decision just a little more comfortable and definitely more reliable.
    Knowing how to become a millionaire is not a mystery; the discipline to achieve that goal is yet another matter. The ball is in your court. I wish you good planning, a good decision, and good luck.
    Best Regards.
  • my HSA
    As an additional funding source have you considered a rollover into your hsa?
    If you haven't already done so and have a tax deferred IRA you can make a one time rollover from your IRA to you hsa. The amount cannot exceed your maximum allowable hsa contribution. For an individual that would be $4350 for 2015 and a but more if you have a family hsa plan.
    Its a nice way to move what would be taxable IRA dollars into tax free hsa. This is not a distribution...its a one time rollover.
    Article on topic:
    rules-for-ira-to-hsa-rollovers
    IRA to hsa worksheet:
    IRA_to_HSA_Worksheet.pdf
  • my HSA
    Just reached a certain $$ level. Yes, thankfully, I am healthy and using the HSA as a supercharged savings account for future healthcare expenses. I set up the HSA at Saturna Capital...no maintenance fees there. They have a limited selection of fund families available, so I went with TRP funds, based on MFO recommendations. The downside of Saturna is that you must hold the funds for 180 days, so I have been very careful in my selection and stagger my investments and redemptions accordingly. It is a comparatively small account, so it has been challenging at times.
  • How traditional retirement formulas fall short
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-traditional-retirement-formulas-fall-short-2015-07-15?page=2
    http://paulmerriman.com/retirement-distributions-2015/
    Of course the author doesn't ask the correct questions in this article:
    What are the chances of accumulating $1mm money by about 55 or 60? Answer small.
    Then again with the right amount of inflation many more people will be able to do so!
  • The Definitive Smart Beta ETF Guide
    FYI: Smart beta has emerged as one of the most exciting and hotly debated investment trends of the past 10 years.
    Going by many different names—strategic beta, Fundamental Indexing, factor investing and others—smart beta is a
    catchall term for rules-based, quantitative strategies that aim to deliver better risk-adjusted returns than traditional
    market indexes.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etf.com/sites/default/files/smart-beta-guide-043015.pdf
  • Great Book on Investment Managers
    @MFO Members: Here's what Lukemon was commenting on. Thank, Lukemon for the heads-up.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.amazon.com/Great-Minds-Investing-William-Green/dp/3898799247/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1436962195&sr=8-1&keywords=great+minds+of+investing
    Another Book On Fund Managers Is "Value Investing With The Masters"
    Some of these money managers William Miller of Legg Mason Value Trust, David Dreman of Dreman Value Management and Martin Whitman of Third Avenue Funds are well-established advocates of the value approach. Others are relative newcomers, such as the Oakmark Funds' William Nygren and Jean-Marie Eveillard of First Eagle SoGen Funds. The general approach to the interviews is the same: a brief summary of the manager's background, including education.
    http://www.amazon.com/Value-Investing-Masters-Interviews-Market-Beating/dp/0735203210/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1436962899&sr=1-1&keywords=value+investing+with+the+masters
  • Never mind posted below - Fund Managers Holding Highest Cash......
    Yes - Fear must be rampant among many fund managers to drive them into cash at 1% (+-). Really kills return. As I posted a week or so ago, the normally sane and intelligent managers at Oakmark have nearly all of OAKBX's fixed-income allocation (typically around 30-35%) sitting in cash and short-term stuff as of last report. Highly unusual for a fund that likes to hold some longer-dated government bonds to off-set its equity positions.
    -
    Oops. Apparently Mark's is a duplicate post. Apologies to whomever I've offended by responding to it.
    Maybe we need a computer here that would detect duplicates and prevent their being posted? (as one who has made the same mistake in the past).
  • When Will Value Funds Revive?
    FYI: Value mutual funds did well in the first two of the past 10 years but have lagged their growth and core counterparts since then, leaving the style trailing for the whole period.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTk5MzkzOTE=
    Enlarged Graphic:
    http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=071515webLV.jpg&docId=761703&xmpSource=&width=986&height=1135&caption=&id=761693
  • MFO Fund Ratings Posted - Through 2nd Quarter 2015
    Hi again Mona.
    The table basically tries to show past 12 month performance ending June. APR is basically annualized return percentage, so in this case return for past year. Yield is percent dividend trailing 12 months. MAXDD is worst pull back during past 12 months, etc.
    My point is that these funds don't seem to be doing that well.
    Any help?
    c
  • MFO Fund Ratings Posted - Through 2nd Quarter 2015

    Hey, income funds on my mind lately, just past the 59.5 mark.
    A look back at some notables this past year, sorted by APR highest to lowest:
    Hi Charles,
    I am having a problem understanding the numbers in your 1-Year Display Period.
    Mona