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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Grading mutual funds with RARE analysis (updated 2/9 with grades for SC Growth funds)
    @davidrmoran, the answer to your last question is in that same post I pointed to earlier which gives example of how and when they might differ. A low volatility fund can score very high or very low depending on its returns through time relative to index. Think about it. And yes, you would see the difference if you thought about it for a while. I don't really think you are giving enough time to think about this before jumping into questions/conclusions. Ok if that is your style but please do not expect me to keep explaining and correcting. It is tiresome.
    It is a valid question to ask as to how one would use this. So I will answer that as it would be useful to many to consider
    The way I would use it in the future would be as one more input into fund selection. Typically, fund selection uses a number of factors, performance, tax efficiency, manager reputation, etc. So you land up with a number of potential candidates or a short list for most asset classes.
    Out of these I would look at RARE grades if available or I can calculate them to see if any of them scored low. If they did, then I would suspect that perhaps the manager was streaky in his performance or only did better in specific market conditions. If the fund seems like a good one otherwise, I would take a look again at the performance charts to see if he had some small periods where he did well but not so much otherwise. This is different from just looking at 5yr or 10yr results as people who have read should have understood by now. If that was the case, I would skip it even if it was highly rated because none of these ratings consider this fact about the fund. Or if I really wanted that fund for other reasons or didn't have a choice say in a 401k, then I would wait for a time when the manager was underperforming the index than overperforming to get in with a big lumpsum. This is different from whether the market was down. If my plan was a regular DCA, I would not get into such a fund with low RARE grading because, it is likely that a lot of my purchases would likely do better elsewhere missing the streaky performance.
    This is more about minimizing opportunity costs in getting into a better fund not in minimizing losses as people who have understood the metric would clearly see.
    If the rating was good - B or better - then it would reassure me further about the fund that I had shortlisted that I wouldn't get shortchanged because I happened to jump in at the wrong time. So I wouldn't heistate to get into such a fund if other factors about the fund checked out.
    If the only potential candidates for that asset class from other considerations and availability were in the C region or below in RARE grades, I would just buy an index fund or ETF instead for that allocation.
    Every year or so when I take a look at my funds, I would reassess the funds in the same way as if I were selecting them and see if the original assumptions still hold. I am not in the camp of hanging on to a fund for decades to give the manager a chance. It is too late then if the manager has failed. If a fund has not met my realistic expectations of the fund for selection in 3-5 years, then the fund is out. My expectation if I have done the selection carefully is that I really would not need to make any changes but I am not one to believe I should not change and just hang on.
    But that is just me adopting this additional information to make a more informed choice. Some people throw darts or chase returns or pick the latest fad fund and pray their selection was good. My effort here is to share that additional information with people who think more like the former than the latter.
  • Grading mutual funds with RARE analysis (updated 2/9 with grades for SC Growth funds)
    @old_skeet, isn't that true of any ranking? I don't know of any ranking or rating that will guarantee a certain performance (or lack of) especially in a single snapshot of some time period. Perhaps the problem is in what you expect from a ranking whether it is US News rankings or Morningstar rating, or Lipper ranking or Zacks or whatever. There is bound to be false positives or false negatives otherwise we wouldn't need 8000 funds. Each ranking explains the metrics used to rate them and they are correct in those dimensions.
    Comparing such rankings to RARE grades is even worse. I have taken a lot of pains to explain that this ranking is an evaluation of how the fund stacks up in one dimension, not a ranking of best fund or even an indicator of what a fund might return in some period of time. Yet people seem to be thinking that.
    Lipper ranks funds in 5 dimensions. Would you say a fund is a Lipper 5 in tax efficiency but it is #256 in some other rankings and so the latter ranking is suspect? That is the same as comparing to this grading.
    @davidrmoran, you said "I do realize that RARE is necessarily about investor patience,". This is absolutely not the case. It is, in some sense, a ranking of how investors with the same patience level will fare with a fund depending on which period of the fund they were patient in. Along with an observation that they will see very different returns even if they waited for the same period whether it is 3 yrs 5 yrs or if one were to calculate it for 8 or 10 years. Some funds do better at rewarding all similarly patient investors but investing at different times (as would naturally happen) better than others. This is what the grading here is about. This difference really needs to be understood.
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through January 2016
    The negative numbers get even worse, if you look year-to-date. Some popular growth funds at Price demonstrate how this bear (?) market is beginning to inflict some real pain: PRGFX -14.54; RPMGX -11.87; TRBCX -14.52; PRNHX -14.20.
  • Grading mutual funds with RARE analysis (updated 2/9 with grades for SC Growth funds)
    Hi @vkt and others:
    You asked ... "What is surprising about that?"
    For me what is puzzling is that you rated FDSAX with an A+ rating while US News & Report rates it #66 in the LCV category. This fund has out performed most LCV funds hands down but is rated down in the stack. That's count one. Count two. SPECX has been the best LCG fund performer over a ten year period with better than a 12% annualized return ... but, again US News & Report rates it #142. Heck, they even rate AGTHX (another fund I own) in front of it at #116 while SPECX has trounced it. I could continue ...
    I don't mean to take away from your fine "Rare Analysis" work. But, just perhaps your are not rating the best funds ... Just funds that US News & Report are reporting to be the best. Maybe, that is why some of the funds that they have rated highly have turned out to be really dogs by your rating system.
    With the above being stated ... US News & World Report mutual funds ratings seem, to me, to indeed be of great suspect.
    USERS BEWARE!
    Old_Skeet
  • COP down 7%
    This article advises shareholders to ride out the market, rather than to sell right now, at multi-year lows, following the (extremely warranted) extremely negative reaction by the Market on Friday, following the announcement of the COP dividend-cut. http://seekingalpha.com/article/3872676-conocophillips-throwing-towel?auth_param=19fcee:1bbejig:55110026f49e59c92b6af4f24a18e428&uprof=82&dr=1
  • PGRNX - Pax World Global Environmental Markets Fund
    I have a small toehold in it, but may sell it - not that impressed with management. First, they completely missed the previous runup in renewable energy (in 2013); they had zero renewables or close to it for most of that run. Second, the overall reward:risk, imho, is just okay for what it is, but not that impressive. But it isn't nearly as risky as the cap-weighted etf's out there, so it may work fine for a small position over a period of time.
    PRBLX is good - don't own it now, but have owned it most of the time for > 10 years - but if action on climate change is a thesis you want to pursue, it's not what you're looking for. It's a best-in-class generalist fund, almost always with commodity energy exposure and nothing in any sort of alternatives.
    One of these days someone somewhere is going to hire a firm like Wellington to run an ESG-with-lots-of-E moderate allocation fund, and it'll be a big hit.
  • COP down 7%
    Hello, vkt. This particular socialist just read every word of your post, and I sympathize and understand, 100%. In the same vein, I cannot help but to add the following link, from uncle Lewis Black, "the angriest man in comedy." This is a few minutes long, on "Greed." Yup.
    *Warning: if four-letter words are really an issue for anyone, ... ummmmm... WHY??? The human race has much bigger REAL issues to deal with. Anyhow, if that is the case, you might want to just skip this one:
    https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?p=lewis+black+on+greed&ei=UTF-8&hspart=mozilla&hsimp=yhs-001
  • PGRNX - Pax World Global Environmental Markets Fund

    Too expensive for my tastes on both ER and 12(b)-1 fees but I do like many of its holdings. If you want ESG fund, maybe look at PRBLX which has done better than this one for the past several years and is cheaper, too. It's more US focused, though. (I own it)
  • Grading mutual funds with RARE analysis (updated 2/9 with grades for SC Growth funds)
    @Old_Skeet & MFO Members: U.S. News & World Report mythology for ranking funds. Their rankings, in my opinion, should be used as a tool for screening funds in various categories.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/investing/articles/2010/02/23/about-the-us-news-mutual-fund-score
  • Grading mutual funds with RARE analysis (updated 2/9 with grades for SC Growth funds)
    A fund that I own, SPECX, has one of the best ten year return records for all large caps growth funds at about 12% bettering most funds ranked in front of it that vkt has thus far analyzed; however, US News & Report ranks it #142 in the large cap growth category. With this, I question their ranking mythology. Go figure?
  • Grading mutual funds with RARE analysis (updated 2/9 with grades for SC Growth funds)
    9/25 of LCC and LCV had lead manager changes in the last 8y. Top tier to bottom tier.
    Did not check LCG after I saw Danoff got an X:
    'Toxic : Very poor returns relative to index for most investment periods except for an insignificant percentage of intervals so unless investors caught that interval would have suffered significantly relative to the index'
    I'm not the only buy-hold investor who likes to know who's running a fund and if there is a change. Investopedia points out that manager "performance data that goes back only a few years is hardly a valid measure of talent. To be statistically sound, evidence of a manager's track record needs to span, at a minimum, 10 years or more." An extension of what I was querying in this RARE methodology. I cannot find exactly how M* accounts for tenure, only that they do.
    Investopedia do go on however to note a study that individual-manager added value accounts for less than a third of performance, which I hadn't read before, and if true speaks more to your take re persistence / consistency, institutional approach / method. (Maybe this is a claim you are not making explicitly; don't mean to misattribute based on my inferences.)
    Is it reasonable also to conclude that reduced volatility is being measured here, so if you are not buy-hold you are advised to look for lower volatility?
  • COP down 7%
    @Catch22, I hear you.
    Back in 2000s I used to follow the story of the "then in trouble" American Airlines as I used to fly them a lot to Europe and was vested in their health. The story of that set of incompetent management team is enough to turn any Capitalist into a Socialist. The airline was in deep trouble and the management team apparently made a plan to take it private but its balance sheet was badly damaged and they had to fix it first. So, they told the employees that they were going to go bankrupt unless they got concessions in salaries (in addition to previous cuts). The employees were given a choice of a small lumpsum bonus if they became profitable or stock options. Obviously, not knowing the health of the company or its plans (and you are always advised not to invest in the company you are working for), most took the bonus option. The management set themselves an incentive plan that was based on stock price, not the strength of the balance sheet if it turned around.
    Those very salary cuts and cutting many travel benefits allowed them to repair the balance sheet and so when they announced the quarterly report, the markets bid them up. The management were then rewarded with a bonus for the year that was greater than the profit they made for that year running into multiple 10s of millions while the employees each got a few hundred dollars. They blamed the employees for not taking the stock options instead.
    As it turned out, 2008 happened and private equity interest went away. So they were stuck with a workforce that was entirely antagonostic, an airline they had almost completely stripped to make their bonuses and customers that were unhappy with the cuts. They had to get rid of the entire team and get new management to turn it around. But the previous management got more than rich enough to retire on this windfall.
    Capitalism has the same problem Islam has, an inability to control its own extremists and exploiters so the system as a whole gets blamed.
  • PGRNX - Pax World Global Environmental Markets Fund
    I had been looking at this ESG fund, for last two years. (this will be less than 5% of my retirement portfolio). PGRNX has 37% renewable energy, 40% water, 11% waste management.
    http://paxworld.com/system/storage/19/d7/e/1748/fact_sheet_globalenvironmentalmarketsfund.pdf
    This is tracked as a world stock. Expenses are a bit high, But I have more than 15 years for my retirement and was thinking to add one of ESG funds. I used to believe this was a hype but I do believe in climate change and have experienced personally scarce water issues in other parts of the world.
    Thoughts? Opinions?
    Thanks
    Mulder
  • Grading mutual funds with RARE analysis (updated 2/9 with grades for SC Growth funds)
    Notes on grading Large Cap Growth
    Benchmarked to index funds IWF and V I G R X (cannot post with this symbol whole, seems like a bug in the software) for measuring alpha.
    Most funds come from US News Money Top Funds and contain well known names. Most funds in this category that are top rated put in very strong numbers in this metric.
    Note that the Large Growth Category in the Metrics at this site and everywhere else also includes funds that use Nasdaq 100 stocks as the benchmark or sector. I have intentionally removed them from this list as their performance compared to a broader Large Cap Growth index fund used here was very lopsided and unfair to funds that use a broader sector. Perhaps, they can be evaluated in the future on their own compared to the relevant index like QQQ.
    The surprise stinkies in this metric for this category were FCNTX and PRGIX both of which returned negative alpha for most periods in the last 8 years. Individual returns with these funds really do depend on when you invested in them.
    Just a reminder to readers that what this metric is measuring is the alpha or the over/under performance relative to the index not absolute performance so all of these funds may have good cumulative returns over specific periods (or poor returns in down markets). What the analysis exposes is whether the actual returns for an investor in these funds are sensitive to when you invested in them and the grading reflects that sensitivity. Less sensitive a fund is, more likely that an investment at any time in such funds can benefit, not just a few lucky ones who got in at the right time.
    It isn't meant to be the one and only grade that decides what a good fund is. It measures one (so far unexplored) dimension of fund selection and quantifies it.
  • January Changes the Odds
    Hi jstr,
    Thank you for reading and replying to my post.
    Based on both your current post, and many earlier submittals, you seem to be married to Seeking Alpha’s Market Map technical timing approach. I wish you success with your application of their market timing methodology.
    Whenever market “experts” are asked to identify their 10 golden rules for investment success, “understanding what you are doing” is always one of the rule set. I don’t attempt to time the market major movements (which is also frequently among the 10 golden rules) so I likely would not apply the Seeking Alpha scheme anyway, but I also don’t understand their methodology.
    Not being a subscriber to that site, I don’t have access to their full disclosures, but their strategy seems to be a complex multi-parameter formulation. There surely are advantages to modeling a complex problem like market forecasting in several dimensions; but there are also hazards in dong so.
    Curve fitting data can produce excellent results, but over-fitting the data set is a danger too. Given enough free parameters (like an infinite sine or cosine series), a curve fit can be made perfect. However, the ultimate test is if that curve fit can actually accurately project out-of-sample or future results.
    I have no idea if the Seeking Alpha formulation is proving itself on this battlefield.
    I have been exposed to many other correlations that were multi-parameter complex and attractive for the given data set, but failed miserably when challenged by future data.
    Markets change over time. Technical analysts have been trying to discover the Holy Grail for countless decades with very unfortunate outcomes. Perhaps Seeking Alpha has uncovered the illusive pathway to market success. Maybe not.
    I sure don’t know the answer. But I am suspicious given the numerous failures of earlier technical attempts. And I greatly resist being “obedient to a presumed authority”. Show me the confirmatory out-of-sample data.
    Please continue to update us on your application of Market Maps. I do hope you achieve success on your venture in that arena. Your closing paragraph suggests you have made considerable progress following your pathway. Good for you!
    Best Wishes.
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through January 2016
    Charles...I was looking at FAIRX yesterday, and saw the AUM was 2.8B.....wasn't it over 10 a few years ago? That's gotta hurt.
    press
  • Thoughts on Gold?
    Howdy folks,
    Mark is spot on. Goes back to Peter Lynch - play what you know. Everybody has some area of knowledge superior to most and if played . . . I've collected coins for some 60 years so I should know pm's. I've watched Mark play MLPs for years and tried, but I have NEVER been able to figure them out. Indeed, over the years, most of my investment losses have been from playing somewhere I had no business being.
    That said, when you play within your circle of competence, as Mark put it, you are able to bear greater risks with a larger percentage of your portfolio.
    As for investing differently because I have a pension is really beside the point of financing a retirement.
    I've always thought of retirement as a footstool with one or more legs. Social security is a leg, as is a DB pension, and a 401(k), an IRA, savings, home equity, rental income, other streams of income, a child who is a physician with a granny flat, etc. Each of these represents a leg under your stool. The game is to get as many legs and make each of them as strong as you can.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • Thoughts on Gold?
    Junkster said: "... Stock indexes on the other hand trading huge multiples above their 70s levels."
    Yes - And most of us here are probably overweight equities today for that very reason.
    But here's what makes some of us age 70+ and retired shudder when contemplating where to invest. It's an excerpt from a purportedly independent study of PRPFX - the fund many love to hate.
    (Excerpt): ... Turn the clock back a bit and revisit a time when the sky was falling and “Mr. Market” seemed to have it in for all of us regardless of where you tried to put your money. That was in 2008. ... (Let's) refresh you on the performance of certain asset classes/indexes that year:
    S&P 500 -37.00%
    Mid Cap -41.46%
    Small Cap -33.79%
    MSCI EAFE (International) -43.06%
    Emerging Markets -53.18%
    (Continued) ... If you had any Bond exposure in your portfolio that’s probably all that you had to celebrate as they at least turned in a positive +5.24%. Most people realistically didn’t have enough Bond exposure but flocked to them in 2009. They were rewarded with another positive year with +5.93%. The problem with that, however, is that the areas they just cut bait on (stocks) returned the following:
    S&P 500 +26.46%
    Mid Cap +40.48%
    Small Cap +27.17%
    MSCI EAFE (International) +32.45%
    Emerging Markets +79.02%
    Source: http://www.myportfolioguide.com/blog/168-independent-review-of-the-permanent-portfolio-fund-prpfx-.html
    Article doesn't give stats for junk bonds, but my recollection is they lived up to their name in 2008. By contrast, PRPFX lost a bit over 8% that year.
    -
    How many small investors had the stomach to sit out 2008 passively watching their life savings depreciate by 40% or more? More unlikely still, how many who yanked their $$ out in panic after suffering big losses realized on March 9, 2009 that the bear had ended and it was now time to reinvest?
    So Junkster ... That large outperformance of equities since the 70s is only as good as an individual's ability to hold on to those investments through thick and thin. I realize you are a experienced and adapt trader within your specialty. However, the research, work, education and temperament required to execute your approach doesn't fit many of us.
    All of the above is why I keep a foothold in PRPFX. Won't make you nearly as much $$ as equities will long term. But it's a fund that allows some of us to sleep a little better. (And yes - you can replicate the fund's mostly static investments on your own for a lower ER if you want to.) At near 10% of my holdings I like it and recently converted to a Roth.
    Loved Rono's reference to the teddy bear. I never had one as a kid, but occasionally took a bottle of Johnny Walker Red to bed in my younger years. Probably served a similar purpose. :)
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through January 2016
    The difference in FAIRX volatility between its first 7 years of existence (Cycle 4) versus the last 9 years (Cycle 5) is astounding ...
    image