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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Saba Capital Management
    I have followed the activities of Boaz Weinstein on social-media. I also took a flyer on his etf of CEFs CEFS. It's ER is HIGH even taking into account that the underlying CEFs have high ERs. I think he likes to pocket a lot of money himself and investors have to count on trickle down.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CEFS&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17466725366
  • Positioning under current climate
    ”We've heard over and over, do not let the political environment sway your investing decisions.”
    @Crash - That’s probably great advice for 80-90% of investors - mostly younger and employed - who research shows are usually better off letting it ride. I’d still give that advice to a 25 year old just starting out with maybe 40 years to retirement.
    But take a look at the “Buy Sell” thread. ”Set-it- and-forget-it” ? Huh? ISTM most who frequent financial forums like this one do alter their investments quite a bit year-to-year. So, of course, political climate affects their decision making and is worth discussing.
    Right. Dare I assert that most of us here are NOT spring chickens anymore? I'm having repeat surgery coming up in March.... As Leonard Cohen said: "I ache in the places where I used to play." (Tower Of Song.)
    **********
    Skip right to 0:20. (LOUD start!)
    Crescent Street mural, Montreal:

  • Positioning under current climate
    ”We've heard over and over, do not let the political environment sway your investing decisions.”
    @Crash - That’s probably great advice for 80-90% of investors - mostly younger and employed - who research shows are usually better off letting it ride. I’d still give that advice to a 25 year old just starting out with maybe 40 years to retirement.
    But take a look at the “Buy Sell” thread. ”Set-it- and-forget-it” ? Huh? Not to pick on the thread … but ISTM most who frequent financial forums like this one do alter their investments quite a bit year-to-year. So, of course, political climate affects their decision making along with a myriad of other considerations / assessments and may be worth discussion.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    14 Feb, 2025:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-02-14/bloomberg-real-yield-02-14-2025-video
    Sticky inflation, FED will not be cutting rates. Maybe 10-year at 5% this year...Powell: "we are close, but not there," with regard to inflation.
    Through the week, there was a 0.20% range being traded. That's BIG in the bond market.
    Big sovereign deals during the past week: UK, France. Near record orders: over 115B euros.
    USA Treasury Auction:
    3-yr: 4.3%
    10 yr: 4.632% (highest for new issuance since 2007.)
    30 yr: 4.748%
    (Schwab's SWVXX MM right now: 4.18%)
    Anastasia Amoroso: favorite bond market sector: hmmmmmmm. Spreads are tight, offered rates are range-bound. So, she likes private credit.
    Leveraged loan vs. private credit discussion with Christina Minnis, from Goldman. Both markets are "growing, robust and strong." and there is lots of dry powder still on the sidelines. Rates will stay where they are for longer. Biggest opportunity is "probably in the the private investment grade space." the prospect of rising RATES and GEOPOLITICAL considerations are the biggest looming risks. It would be an untoward thing if the FED felt it necessary to bump-up rates.
  • Positioning under current climate
    I agree with @msf (different thread) that ”Many people find government pronouncements and actions relevant to investing.”
    - There’s a thread along that line offered up by @Soupkitchen January 28 in the OT section - mostly buried now by the avalanche of anti-Trump posts & comments. Worth a second look. Where America is Heading and your Investments.
    Like everyone else I’m looking for clues. From the two financial blogs / newsletters I subscribe to, here’s what I’ve gleaned …
    - On February 3 Bill Fleckenstein wrote: ”Lastly, on the subject of Trump tape bombs, while we should expect them to be a feature of his term, they may become less frequent, and we may get a better handle on what they individually mean. Even so, I think they mandate carrying a little bit more cash or being slightly less aggressive than one might ordinarily be because they can literally come out of nowhere and gaming whether Trump is serious or not will be hard to do in real time.” https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/dailyrap.aspx?rapdate=02-03-2025
    - James Stack (InvestTech) actually raised his recommended “Net-Long” market exposure a few percentage points from around 55% to 58% about the time Trump took office (but didn’t connect the two). Stack has been extremely cautious for a couple years. The remainder, he advises, should be in T-Bills or money market funds. https://www.investech.com/
    - And Barron’s this week features several Trump related articles - not all complementary. One, titled ”11 Tariff-Proof Dividend Stocks”, mentions consumer staples, financials and energy as among the better plays on that theme. Another article, ”The Markets Trust Trump. How to Trade It”, focuses on options plays. A third article notes that there has been a sharp uptick in very wealthy investors moving wealth abroad, some out of fear of a weaker dollar, but in some cases from fear of retribution by the party they opposed.
    It should go without saying that other investment ideas / suggestions are appreciated. Nobody really knows at this point. But risk is inherent in most investing. If it were safe or easy the rewards would be small.
  • Cash Cows
    Value investing has generated disappointing returns for a considerable time.
    Eugene Fama and Kenneth French published their landmark paper describing the value factor in 1992.
    Since then, the S&P 500's intangible assets (brands, intellectual property) have increased significantly.
    Utilizing free cash flow in lieu of traditional value metrics may result in superior performance.
    Link
  • XMAG7 NASDAQ 100
    is there an ETF or mutual fund for the subject group?
    XMAG is S&P 500 minus the 7. I am looking for the Nasdaq 100 equivalent.
    Thanks.
  • Thoughts on TIAA Brokerage?
    Vanguard (at least for a couple of years) self-clear through their subsidiaries.
    2009 actually. I know - it seems like only yesterday :-)
    FWIW, here are a couple of lists of brokerages and their clearing houses. Large brokerages generally self-clear.
    https://www.brokerage-review.com/discount-broker/brokerage-houses-clearing-firms.aspx
    https://moneywise.com/investing/broker-clearing-firms
    They [Vanguard] have to be among the most customer unfriendly fund families out there.
    I try to distinguish between customer unfriendly brokerages (for which Vanguard seems to qualify) and customer unfriendly fund families.
    Some people consider Vanguard funds to be unfriendly because they close funds with no advance warning, they have stringent frequent trading rules, they enforce min balance requirements on share classes. They don't pay for shelf space. All of those are designed to improve fund performance.
    Those are friendly policies for this investor (he says, referring to himself in the third person). YMMV.
  • Thoughts on TIAA Brokerage?
    Not personal experience, but I've helped someone who used to have sizeable managed accounts (both taxable and tax-sheltered) with them. At the time the structure was that you worked with a personal advisor for planning and advice while the actual investments were managed by other "back end" people.
    The personal advisor was excellent, laying out not just asset allocation but withdrawal strategies, budgeting, and so on. The back end, well ...
    I don't recall various little things they did but I do recall the last straw. They tax-harvested a loss in the taxable account. All well and good. But within the wash sale window they purchased the same security in a tax-sheltered account. This is a no-no. You permanently lose the tax value of the cap loss.
    TIAA's excuse: their contract clearly states that each account is managed independently of anything else going on, even if what's going on in another account is their own doing. IOW, they have no responsibility for the left hand knowing what the right hand is doing, even when both hands belong to TIAA. Talk about unclean hands!
    The brokerage itself seems okay and has some interesting NTF offerings. For example, MFS institutional class funds such as BRXIX ($500 min).
  • Thoughts on QGLDX ?
    Shosh, I'd never heard of QGLDX until your post.
    A simple benchmarking of returns of QGLDX vs the oldest bullion ETF, "GLD", shows that QGLDX does effectively track the price of gold, but it tracks it with "drag" (underperformance) of about 2.5% per annum.
    I guess if that is the only option in the space available, it could be used. But I'd be inclined to get my bullion exposure outside of the 401k, using a cost-effective option -- either SGOL, IAU, or buy the bullion directly.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted all ratings and fund flows to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, Valentine's Day, 14 February 2025.
  • Encouraged towards self-directed
    With a little work on your part going forward (self managing) you can eliminate the advisor's 1% annual fee.
    Going forward think of the 1% savings this way,
    As a retiree, this 1% annual fee equates to a 25% savings of your 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate... that's significant!
    They weren't hitting me with a 1% fee. otherwise I would have been gone long ago.
  • Vanguard lowers fees across mutual funds and etfs
    "The media needs something to rant about on an otherwise slow day I guess"
    More than 95% of "news" from the 24/7 media is useless and redundant.
    @FD1000, please explain how your post is relevant to this thread discussion so far. I have said to you before that you can have freedom of speech but you are not allowed to abuse knowingly or out of loss of sanity. Your post is abusive. If you mistakenly posted in the wrong thread, please move your post and I will delete this post.
  • Vanguard lowers fees across mutual funds and etfs
    "More than 95% of "news" from the 24/7 media is useless and redundant."
    More than 95% of posts from certain individuals are useless and redundant.
    Perhaps these inane posts could be readily disregarded if only they were not ubiquitous.
  • Encouraged towards self-directed
    With a little work on your part going forward (self managing) you can eliminate the advisor's 1% annual fee.
    Going forward think of the 1% savings this way,
    As a retiree, this 1% annual fee equates to a 25% savings of your 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate... that's significant!
  • Vanguard lowers fees across mutual funds and etfs
    "The media needs something to rant about on an otherwise slow day I guess"
    More than 95% of "news" from the 24/7 media is useless and redundant.
  • Tax info issues - check carefully
    Two of the four clearing houses generating my 1099s this year seem to have made errors. Always a good idea to check your numbers.
    Merrill didn't report my transfer bonus in a taxable account. Bonuses are generally treated as income - okay in IRAs, but should be reported for taxable accounts (as Merrill did for me in 2019).
    Typically bonuses show up on 1099-MISC's, line 3 (other income). Though Schwab says that "the bonus award will be reported on your Form 1099-INT. "
    Fidelity somewhat mistakenly charged me margin interest that it then refunded. In theory (my theory, at least) this whole transaction should be a non-event. But the 1099 supplemental info says that I paid margin interest (deductible). So the "refund" should be reported as income. That's the way it shows up on the website but not on the 1099. Something is amiss somewhere. Fidelity is investigating.
    Also at Fidelity: it has not yet posted for its funds how much income came from overnment securities (state tax-exempt) on its retail site.
    Thanks to a post on The Finance Buff for another place to find the numbers:
    https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/item/842885.html
    Note that this page (for the "Investment Professional") says that it was updated Dec 31, 2024, so I can't tell whether these are final figures.
  • WealthTrack Show
    Feb 15th Episode:
    “Rethinking Investing” is legendary financial consultant Charley Ellis’ “eureka” moment when all his investment wisdom and experience came together in one short volume.
    ONE INVESTMENT
    ELLIS: LONG, LONG RUN INVESTMENT
    Buy a low cost index fund or ETF of your choice
    Slight tax benefit to ETFs