Positioning under current climate I agree with
@msf (different thread) that
”Many people find government pronouncements and actions relevant to investing.”- There’s a thread along that line offered up by
@Soupkitchen January 28 in the OT section - mostly buried now by the avalanche of anti-Trump posts & comments. Worth a second look.
Where America is Heading and your Investments.
Like everyone else I’m looking for clues. From the two financial blogs / newsletters I subscribe to, here’s what I’ve gleaned …
- On February 3 Bill Fleckenstein wrote:
”Lastly, on the subject of Trump tape bombs, while we should expect them to be a feature of his term, they may become less frequent, and we may get a better handle on what they individually mean. Even so, I think they mandate carrying a little bit more cash or being slightly less aggressive than one might ordinarily be because they can literally come out of nowhere and gaming whether Trump is serious or not will be hard to do in real time.” https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/dailyrap.aspx?rapdate=02-03-2025- James Stack (
InvestTech) actually raised his recommended “Net-Long” market exposure a few percentage points from around
55% to
58% about the time Trump took office (but didn’t connect the two). Stack has been extremely cautious for a couple years. The remainder, he advises, should be in T-Bills or money market funds.
https://www.investech.com/- And
Barron’s this week features several Trump related articles - not all complementary. One, titled
”11 Tariff-Proof Dividend Stocks”, mentions consumer staples, financials and energy as among the better plays on that theme. Another article,
”The Markets Trust Trump. How to Trade It”, focuses on options plays. A third article notes that there has been a sharp uptick in very wealthy investors moving wealth abroad, some out of fear of a weaker dollar, but in some cases from fear of retribution by the party they opposed.
It should go without saying that
other investment ideas / suggestions are appreciated. Nobody really knows at this point. But risk is inherent in most investing. If it were safe or easy the rewards would be small.
Cash Cows Value investing has generated disappointing returns for a considerable time.
Eugene Fama and Kenneth French published their landmark paper describing the value factor in 1992.
Since then, the S&P
500's intangible assets (brands, intellectual property) have increased significantly.
Utilizing free cash flow in lieu of traditional value metrics
may result in superior performance.
Link
XMAG7 NASDAQ 100 is there an ETF or mutual fund for the subject group?
XMAG is S&P 500 minus the 7. I am looking for the Nasdaq 100 equivalent.
Thanks.
Thoughts on TIAA Brokerage? Vanguard (at least for a couple of years) self-clear through their subsidiaries.2009 actually. I know - it seems like only yesterday :-)
FWIW, here are a couple of lists of brokerages and their clearing houses. Large brokerages generally self-clear.
https://www.brokerage-review.com/discount-broker/brokerage-houses-clearing-firms.aspxhttps://moneywise.com/investing/broker-clearing-firmsThey [Vanguard] have to be among the most customer unfriendly fund families out there.I try to distinguish between customer unfriendly brokerages (for which Vanguard seems to qualify) and customer unfriendly fund families.
Some people consider Vanguard funds to be unfriendly because they close funds with no advance warning, they have stringent frequent trading rules, they enforce min balance requirements on share classes. They don't pay for shelf space. All of those are designed to improve fund performance.
Those are friendly policies for this investor (he says, referring to himself in the third person). YMMV.
Banksters doing illegal stuff? SHOCKED!
Thoughts on TIAA Brokerage? Not personal experience, but I've helped someone who used to have sizeable managed accounts (both taxable and tax-sheltered) with them. At the time the structure was that you worked with a personal advisor for planning and advice while the actual investments were managed by other "back end" people.
The personal advisor was excellent, laying out not just asset allocation but withdrawal strategies, budgeting, and so on. The back end, well ...
I don't recall various little things they did but I do recall the last straw. They tax-harvested a loss in the taxable account. All well and good. But within the wash sale window they purchased the same security in a tax-sheltered account. This is a no-no. You permanently lose the tax value of the cap loss.
TIAA's excuse: their contract clearly states that each account is managed independently of anything else going on, even if what's going on in another account is their own doing. IOW, they have no responsibility for the left hand knowing what the right hand is doing, even when both hands belong to TIAA. Talk about unclean hands!
The brokerage itself seems okay and has some interesting NTF offerings. For example, MFS institutional class funds such as BRXIX ($500 min).
Thoughts on QGLDX ? Shosh, I'd never heard of QGLDX until your post.
A simple benchmarking of returns of QGLDX vs the oldest bullion ETF, "GLD", shows that QGLDX does effectively track the price of gold, but it tracks it with "drag" (underperformance) of about 2.5% per annum.
I guess if that is the only option in the space available, it could be used. But I'd be inclined to get my bullion exposure outside of the 401k, using a cost-effective option -- either SGOL, IAU, or buy the bullion directly.
January MFO Ratings Posted Just posted all ratings and fund flows to
MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, Valentine's Day, 14 February 202
5.
Encouraged towards self-directed With a little work on your part going forward (self managing) you can eliminate the advisor's 1% annual fee.
Going forward think of the 1% savings this way,
As a retiree, this 1% annual fee equates to a 25% savings of your 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate... that's significant!
They weren't hitting me with a 1% fee. otherwise I would have been gone long ago.
Vanguard lowers fees across mutual funds and etfs "The media needs something to rant about on an otherwise slow day I guess"
More than 95% of "news" from the 24/7 media is useless and redundant.
@FD1000, please explain how your post is relevant to this thread discussion so far. I have said to you before that you can have freedom of speech but you are not allowed to abuse knowingly or out of loss of sanity. Your post is abusive. If you mistakenly posted in the wrong thread, please move your post and I will delete this post.
Vanguard lowers fees across mutual funds and etfs "More than 95% of "news" from the 24/7 media is useless and redundant."
More than 95% of posts from certain individuals are useless and redundant.
Perhaps these inane posts could be readily disregarded if only they were not ubiquitous.
Encouraged towards self-directed With a little work on your part going forward (self managing) you can eliminate the advisor's 1% annual fee.
Going forward think of the 1% savings this way,
As a retiree, this 1% annual fee equates to a 25% savings of your 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate... that's significant!
Vanguard lowers fees across mutual funds and etfs "The media needs something to rant about on an otherwise slow day I guess"
More than 95% of "news" from the 24/7 media is useless and redundant.
Tax info issues - check carefully Two of the four clearing houses generating my 1099s this year seem to have made errors. Always a good idea to check your numbers.
Merrill didn't report my transfer bonus in a taxable account. Bonuses are generally treated as income - okay in IRAs, but should be reported for taxable accounts (as Merrill did for me in 2019).
Typically bonuses show up on 1099-MISC's, line 3 (other income). Though
Schwab says that "the bonus award will be reported on your Form 1099-INT. "
Fidelity somewhat mistakenly charged me margin interest that it then refunded. In theory (my theory, at least) this whole transaction should be a non-event. But the 1099 supplemental info says that I paid margin interest (deductible). So the "refund" should be reported as income. That's the way it shows up on the website but not on the 1099. Something is amiss somewhere. Fidelity is investigating.
Also at Fidelity: it has not yet posted for its funds how much income came from overnment securities (state tax-exempt) on its
retail site.
Thanks to
a post on The Finance Buff for another place to find the numbers:
https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/item/842885.htmlNote that this page (for the "Investment Professional") says that it was updated Dec 31, 2024, so I can't tell whether these are final figures.
WealthTrack Show Feb 1
5th Episode:
“Rethinking Investing” is legendary financial consultant Charley Ellis’ “eureka” moment when all his investment wisdom and experience came together in one short volume.
ONE INVESTMENT
ELLIS: LONG, LONG RUN INVESTMENT
Buy a low cost index fund or ETF of your choice
Slight tax benefit to ETFs
